Transport and climate change: Simulating the options for carbon reduction in London

Transport is a major user of carbon-based fuels, and it is increasingly being highlighted as the sector which contributes least to CO₂ emission reduction targets. This paper reports on the findings of the VIBAT London study (www.vibat.org) which considers the role of the transport sector in reducing CO₂ emissions in London.The analysis develops a transport and carbon simulation model (TC-SIM) for London. Within this, users are able to consider the implementation of a series of potential policy packages—low emission vehicles, alternative fuels, pricing regimes, public transport, walking and cycling, strategic and local urban planning, information and communication technologies, smarter choices, ecological driving and slower speeds, long distance travel substitution, freight transport and international air. They can select variable levels of application to help achieve headline CO₂ emission reduction targets. The roles of carbon rationing and oil prices are also considered. TC-SIM can be played in different user modes: as ‘free riders’, ‘techno-optimists’, ‘enviro-optimists’, ‘complacent car addicts’ and other typical travel market segments, including a ‘free role’. Game playing or scenario testing such as this helps to highlight perceived levels of homogeneity of views within certain cohorts, the development of entrenched positions and the likely success in achieving objectives.The paper develops various policy packages, scenarios and pathways aimed at reducing transport CO₂ emissions. It argues that strategic CO₂ emission reduction targets are very ambitious relative to current progress, and that we need to act more effectively across a wide range of policy mechanisms, with a ‘high intensity application’ of many of the options, to get near to achieving these targets. A critical issue here will be in communicating and gaining greater ‘ownership’ of future lifestyle choices with stakeholders and the public, and participation tools such as TC-SIM could become increasingly important in this area.     

A method to assess the eco-efficiency of a public bus transportation service

Brazilian Public Bus Transportation Service transports over 34.4 million passengers daily using approximately 107,000 urban buses. This service costs millions of dollars annually to the municipality and emits several pollutants to the atmosphere. Therefore, this paper proposes a method to assess the eco-efficiency of a Public Bus Transportation Service. The proposed method was tested in a medium-sized urban region in Brazil. Different scenarios representing changes in the vehicles engines and fuels were tested and analyzed. Six eco-efficiency indicators regarding emissions and fuel consumption were proposed to assess which mix of engines and fuels would bring the greatest eco-efficiency. The results were compared to targets based on Brazilian regulation and showed that the renewal of the fleet is necessary to meet the environmental targets, while also achieving fuel costs reduction.     

Exploring the expectations of transport professionals concerning the future automobility system: Visions,challenges, and transitions

A mixture of potentially significant changes in technology, commercial structures, and social practices is currently entering the automobility system. These changes have the potential to combine together and lead to a substantial shift in the manner in which society fuels, owns, and makes use of its cars. This paper reports a research project that made use of focus groups to examine the narratives of British transport professionals concerning forthcoming developments in the automobility system. Specific attention was given to what the expectations for future change in automobility are, if these changes will likely lead to a transition toward a more sustainable system and the manner in which a transition of this nature could be facilitated. The oral testimony offered during the focus groups has been assessed qualitatively using thematic analysis. The results suggest that there is a commonly held view that the automobility system is entering a stage of flux, which may lead to considerable changes in system configuration. However, the attainment of a sustainable transition for the system will likely be inhibited by a series of institutional, societal, and physical barriers, which may restrict system developments.     

Multi-period heterogeneous vehicle routing considering carbon emission trading

This study considers the problem of determining heterogeneous vehicle routes in each period of a given planning horizon while satisfying service combinations, customer demands and vehicle capacities. The objective is to minimize the sum of vehicle operation costs and carbon emission trading cost/benefit, where the trading cost is incurred to purchase the carbon emission right if the total emission exceeds an upper limit in each period, while the trading benefit can be obtained by selling the right in each period, otherwise. A mixed integer programming model is developed to formulate the problem mathematically. Then, a tabu search algorithm is proposed that incorporates the characteristics of the heterogeneous and the period vehicle routing problems while considering the amount of carbon emission in each period. Computational experiments were done on modified benchmark instances and additional random instances, and the results show that the multi-period approach outperforms the existing single-period one in overall average. In particular, the test results show that the multi-period approach can reduce carbon emission more significantly than the single-period one without sacrificing the total cost.     

Looking over the horizon: Transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030

Transport is a major user of carbon-based fuels, and achievement of the targets set at the Kyoto Protocol and elsewhere means that the EU and national governments must reduce CO₂ emissions in all sectors, including transport. This paper reports on a recently completed study for the UK government on the options available to meet a 60% CO₂ reduction target by 2030 in the UK transport sector. The study follows a backcasting study approach, developing a business as usual baseline for transport emissions, and two alternative scenarios to 2030. Different policy measures are assessed and assembled into mutually supporting policy packages (PP). Although 2030 seems a long way ahead, action must be taken now if the targets for CO₂ reduction are to be met. The achievement of a carbon-efficient transport future, combined with holding travel levels at present levels, is likely to be very difficult. A major transformation in the way transport and urban planning is carried out is required. As transport and urban planners, we need to think very differently in tackling the new environmental and liveability imperative.     

Research agenda for low-carbon mobility: Issues for New World cities

ABSTRACT

Low-carbon mobility (LCM) features strongly in debates about the sustainability of cities and their resilience in the face of demographic, economic, and climate change. Transport is a major source of carbon emissions and there are indications that these continue to increase, despite the considerable recent advances in vehicle, engine, and fuel technologies. Reducing carbon emissions from transport may become more difficult, not easier. A particular issue relates to the New World cities, typified by those of North America and Australasia, which largely developed from the latter half of the nineteenth century onward and whose transportation systems were largely based around private vehicle ownership and usage. These cities are typically composed of low-density, dispersed suburbs, which are highly car dependent and resource and carbon emission intensive. This article develops a research agenda directed at determining and testing policy and planning measures relevant to the quest for low carbon mobility in New World cities. It suggests a rich agenda for essential research on LCM. Much of this agenda falls within the realm of the integration of transport and land use, with attention to urban design details to enhance the perceptions of and opportunities to use low carbon transport alternatives. Research topics identified for LCM research include (1) urban design and land use–transport integration (LUTI), (2) low carbon mobility policies directed at achieving widespread behavior change, (3) opportunities for new technology and its application, including requirements for systems and infrastructure, and (4) analysis and tools for informed decision making, including modeling, measurement, visualization, and especially assessment.     

The liner shipping berth scheduling problem with transit times

In this paper speed optimization of an existing liner shipping network is solved by adjusting the port berth times. The objective is to minimize fuel consumption while retaining the customer transit times including the transhipment times. To avoid too many changes to the time table, changes of port berth times are only accepted if they lead to savings above a threshold value. Since the fuel consumption of a vessel is a non-linear convex function of the speed, it is approximated by a piecewise linear function. The developed model is solved using exact methods in less than two minutes for large instances. Computational experiments on real-size liner shipping networks are presented showing that fuels savings in the magnitude 2–10% can be obtained. The work has been carried out in collaboration with Maersk Line and the tests instances are confirmed to be representative of real-life networks.     

Collaborative governance for low-carbon tourism: climate change initiatives by Australian tourism agencies

The Australian tourism industry is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on natural areas and the destination choices of long-haul travellers concerned about carbon emissions. A National Tourism and Climate Change Taskforce was established in 2007; with a national action plan for Tourism and Climate Change produced in 2008. Implementing these climate change actions requires new partnerships between tourism agencies, business programmes, carbon consultants, and offset providers. This paper assesses collaborative governance of climate change in Australian tourism, with a focus on low-carbon initiatives promoted to tourism operators by state and territory government tourism agencies. The paper compares the climate change initiatives of these tourism agencies based on six key dimensions of governance including: accountability, transparency, involvement, structure, effectiveness, and power [Ruhanen, L., Scott, N., Ritchie, B., & Tkaczynski, A. (2010). Governance: A review and synthesis of the literature. Tourism Review, 65(4), 4–16]. While most state and territory tourism agencies provided resources on climate change initiatives for tourism operators there was little accountability for emissions reduction within the agency. Collaborative governance of climate change was also more developed in states with climate change policies, destinations vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (e.g. Great Barrier Reef, Queensland), or dependent on long-haul travellers. Further research is needed on the governance and effective delivery of carbon emissions reduction programmes by tourism agencies.     

Introducing a transport carbon dioxide emissions vulnerability index for the Greater Dublin Area

Energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector have continued to rise, adding to growing concerns about the environmental impacts caused by transport systems and related land-use patterns. The transport sector in Ireland is a significant fuel consumer, accounting for 36% (5771 kTOE3) of Ireland’s primary energy demand in 2007. The sector was responsible for 36% (17,014 kt5 CO₂) of Ireland’s energy-related CO₂ emissions, higher than any other sector. Energy use in the transport sector grew by 181% (6.3% per annum on average) between 1990 and 2007. A key characteristic that distinguishes energy use in transport is the almost total dependence on imported oil as a fuel – over 99%, EPA (2009).Given the levels and growth of energy demand in transport, there is a clear imperative for policymakers to develop and implement measures and programmes that maximise energy efficiency and renewable-energy penetration. In this paper we develop a transport carbon dioxide emissions vulnerability index, using the Census of Population of Ireland 2006 Place of Work – Census of Anonymised Records (POWCAR) Dataset. The transport carbon dioxide emissions vulnerability index will be developed for the Greater Dublin Area to represent spatially in terms of transport carbon emissions the regional differentiations in commuting distances and modal shares. The results of this research can then be used to assess the transport carbon dioxide emissions of future development plans and therefore allow greater transport sustainability to be achieved through improved design of the location and form of major new development.     

Achieving sustainable urban transport mobility in post peak oil era

Peak oil is the term used to describe the point at which global oil production will peak and thereafter start to decline. Recognising that transport uses a significant portion of global energy, the shortage of fossil fuel in post peak oil era will pose a global challenge in the transport sector. The paper presents an assessment of international research to illustrate the possible time frame of peak oil. It investigates the key implications of the oil shortage that threaten to render the urban transport system of Australia ineffective. Synthesis of documented research evidence suggests three major implications in the urban transport sector: (1) a reduction of mobility for individuals, (2) an increase of transport disadvantage, and (3) a disruption of urban freight movement. In addition, the paper explores strategies to cope with the devastating effects of the shortage of the fossil fuel in the post peak oil era. A number of strategies to achieve sustainable mobility in the future urban transport system are presented. These strategies are summarised into three main themes: (1) a mode shift to alternate transport modes, (2) an integration of land use and transport planning, and (3) a global technical effort for alternate fuels and vehicles. It is expected that a concerted global effort in this regard can have a far-reaching effect in achieving sustainability in urban transport mobility.     

An Interperiod Network Storage Location–Allocation (INSLA) model for rail distribution of ethanol biofuels

In response to the US federal renewable fuels standards, new ethanol plants of varying sizes are being established in the US. The transportation challenge is to decide on how best to move raw materials to these existing and new ethanol plants, and to ship the fuel from the ethanol plants to markets around the country. In this paper, we extend the Interperiod Network Storage Location–Allocation (INSLA) model formulation into a Rail-INSLA model to address the transportation/transshipment issues associated with the rail distribution of ethanol biofuels that include: transporting less than unit train quantities from each plant, developing new sidings at ethanol plants to accommodate a unit train, and determining the optimal number and locations for carrier operated terminals for the agglomeration of less than unit train size shipments into unit train shipments.     

Transport and climate change: a review

Transport accounts for 26% of global CO₂ emissions and is one of the few industrial sectors where emissions are still growing. Car use, road freight and aviation are the principal contributors to greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector and this review focuses on approaches to reduce emissions from these three problem areas. An assessment of new technologies including alternative transport fuels to break the dependence on petroleum is presented, although it appears that technological innovation is unlikely to be the sole answer to the climate change problem. To achieve a stabilisation of greenhouse gas emissions from transport, behavioural change brought about by policy will also be required. Pressure is growing on policy makers to tackle the issue of climate change with a view to providing sustainable transport. Although, there is a tendency to focus on long-term technological solutions, short-term behavioural change is crucial if the benefits of new technology are to be fully realised.     

The impact of carbon emission fees on passenger demand and air fares: A game theoretic approach

The implementation of an environmental market-based measure on U.S. aviation industry is studied. Under this policy, each airline pays a carbon fee for the carbon dioxide emissions it generates. The impact on ticket prices and corresponding market shares is investigated via the joint estimation of an air travel demand model and an airlines' behavior model. In the demand model, aggregate air traffic data is used to determine the marginal effects of flight attributes that are specific to itinerary, airline and airport on market share. The airline's behavior model incorporates the carbon fee in the airline marginal cost. After the implementation of the carbon policy, the increased cost forces airlines to adjust ticket prices in order to maximize profits. The results obtained by the proposed model indicate a moderate price increase which strongly depends on the per tonne carbon price. Air travel demand falls from 2.4% to 21% depending on the carbon price level.     

Oil price dynamics and airline earnings predictability

This study examines the effect of oil price dynamics on quarterly earnings and their predictability with a sample of 30 airlines for 1994–2017. First, we document a significantly positive impact of demand-driven oil shocks on airline earnings, suggesting that the revenue effect from shifting air travel demands dominates the cost effect of aviation fuels. Regarding earnings predictability, we find evidence of deterioration in oil-volatile quarters as indicated by both the earnings variability based on common benchmarks and the quality of analyst forecasts issued early in the quarter. We further show that supply-driven oil shocks have a more detrimental impact on earning predictability than demand-driven oil shocks. Finally, we do not find supporting evidence for the possible moderating effect of hedging.     

Aviation’s inclusion in international climate policy regimes: Implications for the Caribbean tourism industry

Nations with tourism dependant economies are becoming increasingly concerned about the inclusion of aviation in greenhouse gas mitigation policy for international bunker fuels and more recently adaptation policy proposals. The central concern is that such policies will increase the cost of traveling by air, therefore reducing visitor arrivals to long-haul, tourism-dependent destinations, often small island developing states. This study used a tourism arrivals model to examine the implications of currently proposed climate policies for the world’s most tourism dependant region – the Caribbean. Results indicate that under current proposals for both mitigation and adaptation focused climate policy, reductions in tourist arrivals from the major markets of Europe and North America would be negligible versus business as usual growth projections Only under the most stringent mitigation policy scenario. Which may portend a post-2020 policy regime, is a significant decrease in tourist arrivals predicted. Of the climate policies assessed, the adaptation policy had the potential to provide greater economic benefits to the Caribbean region.     

Do institutional structures matter? A comparative analysis of urban carbon management policies in the UK and Germany

The paper addresses the important question of how institutional structures matter to the delivery of climate change policy for urban transport. It examines the strategic goals, policy tools in operation and initial progress towards carbon emission reduction in seven cities across the UK and Germany where different institutional structures exist. The UK has the presence of a strong national carbon target and strong hierarchical national–local government relationships whilst Germany has a more integrated system of local transport provision in a context where local and regional government is stronger. Our findings show that the carbon agenda has made very little difference to what is happening on the ground in the cities. Across all sites, progress is being made but largely through technological improvements which are being almost completely offset by population growth. Even in the more integrated city environments there has not be an additional stimulus to manage the demand for travel.Contrary to previous research therefore, we cannot conclude that institutional structures are paramount in delivering effective carbon reduction policies. The institutional structures in the UK and in Germany are not perfectly aligned to carbon management but, given the cross policy impacts of most transport interventions, this is perhaps inevitable. We can clearly conclude however that “better” structures are not sufficient to achieve the implementation of more effective carbon policies. Whilst institutional structures must matter, it is the broader governance environment and the resources and politics involved in transport policy that currently seem to dominate the importance of the carbon agenda and implementation paths that emerge.     

Flying into the future: A scenario-based analysis of carbon emissions from China's civil aviation

Aviation emissions will significantly affect climate change with the continued growth of the air transport. This study decomposes the drivers influencing China's civil aviation carbon emissions change in the period from 1985 to 2015. Emission trends are predicted using a Monte Carlo simulation. The results show a peak and reduction in the period between 2016 and 2030. Results also show that air transportation revenue growth is associated with increasing historical carbon emissions, while rising industry energy intensity significantly hampers carbon emissions reduction. The carbon intensity (CI) reduction goals were achieved in the different scenarios before 2020, but the carbon emissions peak target before 2030 can only be achieved under the technological breakthrough scenario (TBS). The reduction of air transport growth rate and promotion of new energy technologies are two essential strategies to reduce carbon emissions in the foreseeing future.     

Effects of carbon emission reduction policies on transportation mode selections with stochastic demand

We are witnessing more frequent extreme weather events due to the global warming. There is an urgent need for governments, industries, general public, and academics to take coordinated actions in order to tackle the challenges imposed by the climate change. It is essential to incorporate the environmental objective in the transportation mode selection problem as transportation is a main contributor to carbon emissions. With this in mind, our paper studies the retailer’s ordering and transportation mode selection problem using stochastic customer demand and investigates the optimal ordering and transportation mode selection decisions under different carbon emission reduction policies. Our analytical results reveal that there are some important transportation mode shifting thresholds under different carbon emissions reduction policies. These findings do not only help firms to make optimal decisions under different carbon emission reduction policies but also support policy makers to develop effective policies on carbon emissions reduction.     

Where does flygskam come from? The role of citizens’ lack of knowledge of the environmental impact of air transport in explaining the development of flight shame

A growing number of citizens are concerned about the environmental impact of air transport, and aviation has become synonymous with high carbon emissions and global warming, which has led to the development of flygskam (or flight shame) in Europe. While its impact on air traffic remains unclear, flight shame has forced the airline industry to react and better understand its origin. In this research, building on the growing literature on industry and organizational stigma, we assume that flight shame can be partly explained by a distorted public perception of the environmental impact of air transport. Accordingly, we investigate the level of knowledge of the environmental footprint of air transport. Based on a sample of 1018 French respondents, we reveal that more than 90% of respondents overestimate the share of air transport in global carbon emissions. We also show that 98% of the respondents underestimate the reduction in carbon emissions per passenger. Finally, we investigate the awareness of the measures taken by the industry to curb its carbon emissions and highlight, for instance, that 70% of respondents overestimate the fuel consumption of the newest generations of aircraft. Based on these results, we draw lessons for airlines and for the air transport industry to help cope with flight shame in Europe.     

What role for offsetting aviation greenhouse gas emissions in a deep-cut carbon world?

The long-term goal of containing average warming below the 2 °C limit requires deep cuts in emissions from all sectors. The fast growing global aviation industry has committed to reduce carbon emissions. Carbon offsetting is an integral element of the sector's strategy. Already, airlines offer voluntary carbon offsetting to those customers who wish to mitigate the impact of their travel. To ensure carbon offsetting can make a meaningful and credible contribution, this paper first discusses the science behind ‘carbon offsetting’, followed by the associated policy perspective. Then, against the context of different aviation emissions pathways, the paper provides empirical evidence of current airline practices in relation to offsetting mechanisms and communication. Building on these insights, the challenges of reducing aviation emissions and using carbon credits to compensate for ongoing growth are discussed. The paper concludes by proposing five principles of best practice for carbon offsetting that airlines can use as a basis to develop credible emissions strategies, and that could inform the sectoral framework currently being developed by leading aviation organisations.