Exports and hedging exchange rate risks: the multi‐country case

This article examines the optimal production, export allocation, and hedging decisions of a risk‐averse international firm that exports to several foreign markets with different currencies. The firm faces multiple exchange rate risks. Optimal decisions are analyzed under two scenarios. In the first, there is a forward market for one currency only. Then, the export allocation to different markets is separable from the firm's preferences and the joint distribution of the exchange rates. In contrast, total production is not separable except for a special case. In the second scenario, there is a forward market for each currency. Then, both production and export allocation are separable. Hedging with forward contracts depends on risk premia and on the joint distribution of the exchange rates. If tradable exchange rate risk is a linear function of untradable exchange rate risk plus noise, there is a conflict between cross hedging and taking a basis risk. If, alternatively, the untradable exchange rate risk is a linear function of the tradable exchange rate risk and noise, there is no such conflict. A speculative position in a biased forward market for one currency can be cross hedged using an unbiased forward market for another currency. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:843–864, 2000.     

Hedging,liquidity, and the competitive firm under price uncertainty

In this paper, the behavior of the competitive firm under price uncertainty when the firm has access to an intertemporally unbiased futures market is examined. Futures contracts are marked‐to‐market and thus require interim cash settlement of gains and losses. The firm is subject to a liquidity constraint in that it is forced to prematurely close its futures position on which the interim loss incurred exceeds a threshold level. It is shown that the liquidity constrained firm optimally opts for an under‐hedge should it be prudent. Furthermore, the prudent firm cuts down its optimal level of output in response to the presence of the liquidity constraint. As such, the liquidity risk created by the interim funding requirement of a futures hedge adversely affects the hedging and production decisions of the competitive firm under price uncertainty. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:697–706, 2004     

Playing away to win at home

This paper presents a model of the interaction between two rival firms based in the same country. Each firm must decide how to serve a foreign market (export or foreign production) and how much to invest in a corporate-wide asset that reduces production costs and/or augments the willingness-to-pay for their product. In this scenario, the firms’ foreign direct investment decisions are interdependent. Furthermore, strategic motives for FDI relate to a firm's domestic, as well as foreign, market profits. One possibility is that a firm sets up overseas production even though its foreign market profits would be higher by exporting.     

Managing the input market: the strategic challenge

The intended contribution of a purchasing function, is to effectively, and efficiently, manage an input market. It might be argued, therefore, that the purchaser’s primary strategic contribution is necessarily limited to the manipulation and exploitation of his or her firm’s input market, with the express intent of significantly improving the firm’s output market competitiveness. Output market competitive strategy is underpinned by the inherent need to seek an advantageous and sustainable difference between a firm and its competitors. Purchasers, however, are seldom mandated to challenge the orthodoxy and routine inherent in supplier selection paradigms. This invariably results in the purchaser dismissively selecting important suppliers that are equally available to competitors. In other words, the orthodoxy contained within purchasing convention, and accepted practice, is unlikely to result in the differences from which a sustainable (input market derived) competitive advantage can be achieved. This paper seeks to address this apparent impasse. It does so by considering a variety of concepts and ideas, including; the competence deficit, the competence release agent, the role of subversives, rebels and contrarians, spilt milk, reverse marketing, predatory relationships and input market stretch.     

The environmental effect of trade liberalization: Evidence from China's manufacturing firms

While prior literature on trade liberalisation and the environment has mostly focused on the macroeconomic ramifications, this study explores at the firm level whether and how changes of trade barriers brought about by China's accession to the WTO may impact on its manufacturing firms’ environmental performance. Adopting a difference-in-differences (DID) methodology, we document the effects of tariff reductions on improving firm-level SO2 emission intensity, and the key corporate strategic decisions responsible for delivering the observed results, with robustness tests covering other major pollutants. In response to trade liberalisation, firms are found to increase labour resources for environmental protection and to improve their production processes to reduce emission intensity. This study contributes to the literature by investigating at the level of the operating firm how output and input tariff reductions may impact on environmental performance and uncovering for the first time the specific actions responsible for the results.     

Domestic Regulation and International Trade

We consider the effects of a one-sided price regulation of one of two complementary inputs. The provider of the regulated input is a domestic firm, while the provider of the other input is a foreign firm. This describes the market structure for several digital information and communication services, where the regulated input is access while the non-regulated complementary input is content. We show that one-sided regulation may have negative welfare effects compared to a free market economy, unless the regulator has a first-mover advantage. In the latter case, regulation is welfare enhancing regardless of whether the foreign input provider uses linear or non-linear wholesale prices.     

Hedging under counterparty credit uncertainty

This study investigates optimal production and hedging decisions for firms facing price risk that can be hedged with vulnerable contracts, i.e., exposed to nonhedgeable endogenous counterparty credit risk. When vulnerable forward contracts are the only hedging instruments available, the firm's optimal level of production is lower than without credit risk. Under plausible conditions on the stochastic dependence between the commodity price and the counterparty's assets, the firm does not sell its entire production on the vulnerable forward market. When options on forward contracts are also available, the optimal hedging strategy requires a long put position. This provides a new rationale for the hedging role of options in the over‐the‐counter markets exposed to counterparty credit risk. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28: 248–263, 2008     

Price control and input inventory: The firm under disequilibrium trading

This paper analyzes the case of a small firm facing price controls in the market for its input and, therefore, the possibility of nonmarket clearing. The focus here is on input inventory levels, and their joint determination with purchase and use as input availability—or its probability density—shifts. The main result is that the firm will react to price shocks differently, depending upon whether the input market clears or is in excess demand. In particular, expected persistent increases in the input price lead to less storage when the market clears, but more storage when the firm is constrained in the state of excess demand.     

INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION,INVESTMENT AND BORROWING WITH EXCHANGE RATE RISK AND FUTURES MARKETS

In this paper we consider a multinational firm under exchange rate and interest rate risks in a multiperiod model. We analyze the impact of exchange rate uncertainty and the use of currency futures on the risk-averse firm's decisions about home and foreign production. Without any hedging markets exchange rate risk lowers foreign investment and output. However, when futures markets exist, the separation property holds. Introducing another source of uncertainty, such as the interest rate, which is nondiversifiable, affects the production in both countries, i.e., the separation property does not hold. However, we show that the adverse effect of the missing financial market (to hedge against this additional risk) disappears when international borrowing is available.     

Devaluation,Innovation, and Prices

We investigate the effects of exchange rate changes on innovation by a multinational corporation. The firm enjoys a monopoly in the home market but engages in Cournot competition with a domestic firm in the foreign market. Changes in currency values affect the multinational firm’s profits in domestic currency units, and thus influence the optimal level of process innovation as well as output and prices in the two markets. We find that a devaluation of the home currency will lead the home firm to increase its output in both the home and foreign markets, and increase its spending on R&D. We also find that currency devaluation in the home market leads to lower prices in both markets.     

Industry equilibrium under price distribution and cost shifts

Using a reference utility entry and exit criterion, we consider an equilibrium model of production where market price is random but endogenous with respect to industry output. General conditions are identified for industry output to increase under shifts in costs and in the distribution of demand. Comparative statics of firm level production and firm numbers are also studied. Results confirm the intuition that improvements in cost and demand conditions increase industry production. However, firm level responses are not as intuitive, and depend upon the relationship between the source of disturbance and the compensation through the altered distribution of output price.     

Does Post‐ante Investment Experience Matter? Lessons from FDI in China

Ample efforts of FDI literature have researched on the motives and determinants of FDI flows based on ex‐ante conditions. Little has been studied with regard to the effects of post‐ante behaviour in determining future investment decisions. Post‐ante experience of FDI decisions with regard to foreign investors’ satisfaction or dissatisfaction and future profit expectations on recurrent decisions are critical. This paper, thus, attempts to investigate FDI in the context of an emerging market environment with emphasis on how environmental and institutional factors and the micro‐firm effects of how investors’ post‐ante views on profits expectations and investment experience would affect MNCs’ decisions on recurrent investment and firm relocation. Empirical results show that decisions in the short and long run were affected differently by the factors under study. Specifically, the short‐run decisions were more affected by profit expectations while the long run by post‐ante experience on investment satisfaction/dissatisfaction and environmental and institutional determinants.     

Self-Sabotage and Durable-Goods Monopoly

We analyze a simple two-period linear demand durable-goods monopoly model with “self-sabotage.” The firm has the ability to sabotage its own production by increasing its future (period two) manufacturing costs. We find that an uncommitted monopoly seller has an incentive to engage in such self-sabotage, while a committed seller or renter has no such incentive. Unlike the previous papers on self-sabotage, we show this occurs even though the firm faces no rivals in the output market. In our durable-goods setting, the incentive for self-sabotage arises from the seller’s commitment problem with period-one buyers (the so-called Coase conjecture). Interestingly, we also find that this sort of self-sabotage can not only be profit enhancing for the uncommitted firm, but may also increase social welfare (in contrast to the earlier models on self-sabotage.)     

Firm-level volatility and exports

This paper shows that the share of exports in the total sales of a firm has a positive and substantial impact on the volatility of its sales. Decomposing the volatility of sales of exporters between their domestic and export markets, I show using an identification strategy based on a firm-specific geographical instrument that firms with a larger export share have more volatile domestic sales and less volatile exports. These empirical patterns can be explained using a model in which firms face market-specific shocks and short-run convex costs of production. In such a framework, firms react to a shock in one market by adjusting their sales in the other market. I point to strong evidence that output variations on the domestic and export market are negatively correlated at the firm level. This result casts doubts on the standard hypothesis that firms face constant marginal costs and maximize profits on their different markets independently of each other. Furthermore, it points to the caveat that sales volatility on a particular market only gives limited information about the size of shocks on that market.     

Time consistent export quotas in an oligopolistic world market

We investigate the strategic behavior between exporting countries that face endogenous terms of trade on the world market. In a non-cooperative setting, if production decisions occur before consumption decisions, the ex-ante optimal export quota is not time consistent as the ex-post elasticity of the residual foreign import demand curve is lower than the ex-ante elasticity. However, we show that the exporters’ inability to irrevocably commit to their quota may be welfare superior to the precommitment solution. If exporters can sell forward a proportion of their exports before production decisions are made, they will do so even though, in equilibrium, it may decrease welfare compared to a situation in which forward markets do not exist. Moreover, the equilibrium with forward markets is welfare inferior to the commitment equilibrium for exporters.     

The role of market orientation,relational capital,and internationalization speed in foreign market exit and re-entry decisions under turbulent conditions

Firms’ internationalization strategies can vary with changing environments. Occasionally, a firm may choose to re-enter a foreign market it had abandoned in the past if environmental conditions have improved. The present study provides insight into the foreign market exit and subsequent re-entry processes. Specifically, we utilize the strategic flexibility perspective to investigate the impact of market orientation, relational capital, and internationalization speed on market exit and re-entry decisions under turbulence in a host market. Using a sample of 156 Turkish firms that operated during the Arab Spring in the Egyptian market between 2010 and 2015, we find that the market-oriented firms are more flexible in their market exit decisions than less market-oriented organizations. In addition, relational capital specific to the host country has a negative impact on market exit decisions under conditions of political conflict. The results also suggest that strong ties with partners in the host country increase the propensity to re-enter the market.     

A Stochastic Production Frontier Estimator of the Degree of Oligopsony Power in the U.S. Cattle Industry

The objective of this study is to estimate the degree of oligopsony power in the U.S. cattle industry with the use of the recently developed stochastic frontier estimator of market power. Unlike the seminal paper where estimation of the mark-up in an output market at firm level was the main objective, this work proposes a stochastic production frontier estimator in order to estimate the mark-down in an input market at aggregate level. Furthermore, with the help of the new estimator we derive and estimate the Lerner index of oligospony power for the U.S. cattle market. For the empirical part of the study we employed annual time series data from the U.S. cattle/beef industry for the time period 1970-2009. Our results suggest that beef packers exert market power when purchasing live cattle for slaughter.     

What to do if a dollar is not a dollar? The impact of inflation risk on production and risk management

An entrepreneur faces two types of risk: one from income generation, one from income spending. His income from firm profits is risky due to output price fluctuations and other risks. As a consumer, he is also exposed to inflation risk since he maximizes expected utility of real income. This article focuses on optimal production and risk management decisions of a risk‐averse entrepreneur jointly facing tradable output price risk and untradable inflation risk. Inflation risk applies multiplicatively to the entrepreneur's entire nominal income. Relative risk aversion and the risks' joint distribution determine the effect of introducing a futures market on production. For dependent risks, this effect may be negative if relative risk aversion is above one. Relative risk aversion and the joint distribution also determine optimal risk management with futures contracts where speculation on a real risk premium and cross hedging may be conflicting objectives. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:371–386, 2002     

Labor market equilibria under limited liability

This paper explores the impact of limited liability on labor market equilibria. Assuming risk-neutrality, the effect of limited liability on production decisions is neutral. It is demonstrated that neutrality of the production decision will not hold under safety-first type of risk aversion. In particular limited liability generally decreases usage of capital. The changes in the quality of labor depend on the magnitude of complementarity between capital and labor and on whether the output clasticity of labor is greater or less than unity. Hence it is possible for limited liability to decrease the usage of labor and capital and hence reduce output.     

The interactive effects of product and brand portfolio strategies on brand performance: Longitudinal evidence from the U.S. automotive industry

Product and brand portfolio extensions are effective marketing strategies to meet customer needs and to create a competitive advantage in the marketplace. Nevertheless, product and brand portfolios can get out of control easily leading to a loss of market focus and market share. This study examines how product portfolio and branding decisions affect brand performance (unit sales and market share). Prior research in marketing has investigated the effects of product portfolio and branding strategies on firm performance in isolation. However, these decisions are rarely isolated events. Usually, for multi-product and multi-brand companies, product portfolio decisions are determined in conjunction with branding decisions. Using a dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimation on a comprehensive dataset from the U.S. automotive industry between 2007 and 2013, this study examines the extent to which product and brand portfolio characteristics interact to affect brand performance. Findings reveal that while brand portfolio scope augments the positive effects of portfolio depth and innovativeness on brand performance, it attenuates the positive effects of product portfolio breadth on brand performance. Also, brand positioning in auto industry enhances brand performance only when considered jointly with product portfolio breadth, depth, and innovativeness. Finally, the present study discovers critical managerial trade-offs between product and brand portfolio decisions, as product and brand portfolio decisions are intertwined and a careful examination of the existing product and brand portfolio characteristics seem to be warranted to maximize brand performance.