Testing the restrictions implied by the rational expectations hypothesis

The nature and form of the restrictions implied by the rational expectations hypothesis are examined in a variety of models with expectations and the properties of appropriate test statistics are analyzed with Monte Carlo evidence. Specifically, we consider the implications of lagged variables, simultaneous equations, and future period expectations upon the number and functional form of the rational expectations restrictions. Two asymptotically equivalent test statistics — a likelihood ratio and a Wald test — are available for implementing a test of these restrictions. Monte Carlo evidence is offered to provide a comparison between the properties of the alternative test statistics in small samples.     

Statistics and the Wealth of Nations

The relationship of statistics and national prosperity is not a simple causal one, but some historical examples suggest a persistent association. A number of examples are considered, from the political arithmetic of the seventeenth century to the quality assurance methods of the 1950s, and a few speculative conclusions are offered.     

Validity of assessment centers for personnel selection

Research and practice in the application of assessment centers (AC) for personnel selection are reviewed and critiqued. Several examples of the use of ACs for external screening, internal promotion, and certification are described. Several types of evidence of validity of ACs for selection are reviewed, including representativeness of the content of dimensions and exercises in relation to job requirements, relationships among ratings within an AC, relationships of AC ratings and criteria of work effectiveness, and consequences of assessments including candidates' reactions to assessments and sub-group differences in ratings. Several controversies in research findings and practices of ACs are noted. Further research to address these controversies and new research to study emerging issues are suggested. Conclusions about the validity, fairness, and legal defensibility of ACs for personnel selection are offered.     

Training Employees for African Statistical Offices

A review of the organizational set-up of a national statistical office, its staffing levels and subjects covered has been described. Two groups of employees of a statistical office are considered with respect to the teaching of statistics, namely those already in employment and those expected to be employed by a statistical office. The Statistical Training Programme for Africa (STPA), under which the present study was undertaken, improvement and strengthening of statistical training programmes for employees or expected employees of a statistical office, are described including selected aspects of the programme. Teaching programmes for those currently in employment with the objective of improving their work performance are also described. Achievements and problems of the programme are given. In conclusion a new framework for revitalisation of teaching of statistics in Africa in the 1990s is mentioned.     

How Students Learn Statistics Revisited: A Current Review of Research on Teaching and Learning Statistics

This paper provides an overview of current research on teaching and learning statistics, summarizing studies that have been conducted by researchers from different disciplines and focused on students at all levels. The review is organized by general research questions addressed, and suggests what can be learned from the results of each of these questions. The implications of the research are described in terms of eight principles for learning statistics from Garfield (1995) which are revisited in the light of results from current studies.     

完善高等院校本科教学评估体系研究

全面提高高等学校的教学质量和办学效益,是开展教学评估的首要目的。我国现行的高校本科教学工作水平评估已初显成效,但在评估工作中也存在一些问题。为此,需对本科教学评估工作进行深入分析,为今后进一步完善评估工作提出相应对策,使高校教学得到科学、健康的发展。     

时事统计分析在统计学课程中的应用与实施效果研究

将时事统计分析融于教学不仅能够提高学生学习统计学课程的积极性,还能锻炼学生的统计分析思维能力和实际动手操作能力。论文将新冠肺炎疫情这一时事统计案例引入统计学教学,通过对比实验组与对照组的效果来检验时事统计对统计学教学的影响,建议增加利用社会时事新闻统计分析的频率,也提醒在统计学教学过程中应注重目标考核手段的多样化。     

二维判断模型在企业成长性评估中的应用

文章介绍了二维判断模型的技术路线、基本构成及其特征,并运用该模型对宁波高新技术企业成长性进行了实证研究,为国内正在兴起的企业成长性评估活动提供了一个科学实用的评估方法。     

DEVELOPMENTS IN DANISH ENVIRONMENTAL REPORTING

Developments in environmental reporting in Denmark in the 1990s are described and also some interesting legal developments regarding the new Danish law requiring approximately 2000 companies to produce environmental reports. Some tentative speculations are offered about future directions for environmental reporting in Denmark and elsewhere.     

Computer algebra in probability and statistics

This paper discusses the uses of computer algebra within statistics and probability. A distinction is drawn between the use of computer algebra packages to support investigations, by performing calculations, ankl their use to implement structure; to build in elements of a theory (such as stochastic calculus or the Taylor string theory of Barndorff Nielsen and others) as a preliminary to research investigations. Brief surveys are given of instances in the literature of use of computer algebra in probability and statistics. Two examples of implementations of structure are discussed, both drawn from the author's own work with the computer algebra package REDUCE. One is a simple demonstration using moments of the Poisson distribution. The other is itovsn3 , an implementation of the semimartingale stochastic calculus. It is described how itovsn3 may be used to derive the characteristic function of the Lévy stochastic area, following a proof due to S. Janson. Prospects for future work and for work in progress are discussed.     

Worlds apart? — a look at the operations management area in the US,UK and Scandinavia

This paper is concerned with the discipline of Operations Management. The paper looks at the convergence and divergence of research in OM in Scandinavia, the US, and the UK. The three different research traditions are described and analysed separately and then compared and contrasted. A short example is presented from the management of advanced technology literature. A synthesis is offered that locates the three traditions on Jick’s “three-horned dilemma”. Opportunities for researchers in each tradition to learn from the others are described.     

Researching Strategy Formation Process: An Abductive Methodology

Methodological challenges in researching subjective social construct formation processes (such as business strategy formation) are described. A solution is derived step by step, based on classic contributions to the literature and first principles. Two major methodological risk factors in interpretive research are identified as horns of a dilemma, and a practical solution is offered. In the process, a basis is offered for carrying out interpretive research in which meaningful data coding can occur across multiple case studies. The methodology developed for the author’s own research is used as an illustration. The author wishes to acknowledge the assistance of Associate Professor Erica Hallebone of RMIT University, who read successive drafts of this article and provided valuable suggestions.     

Future and impact of backshoring—Some conclusions from 15 years of research on German practices

In this short comment, empirical evidence will be offered to some of the questions Fratocchi et al., 2014. J. Purchasing Supply Manage. 20(1), http://dx.doi.org/10.16/j.pursup.2014.01.004 have posed in their short conceptual paper in this issue. Dynamics of German backshoring activities over the past 15 years are described and differences in motivations between the main backshoring modes are depicted. Further implications for global value chains and local manufacturing modes are discussed and future research directions are proposed.     

Topics of statistical theory for register‐based statistics and data integration

Official statistics production based on a combination of data sources, including sample survey, census and administrative registers, is becoming more and more common. Reduction of response burden, gains of production cost efficiency as well as potentials for detailed spatial‐demographic and longitudinal statistics are some of the major advantages associated with the use of integrated statistical data. Data integration has always been an essential feature associated with the use of administrative register data. But survey and census data should also be integrated, so as to widen their scope and improve the quality. There are many new and difficult challenges here that are beyond the traditional topics of survey sampling and data integration. In this article we consider statistical theory for data integration on a conceptual level. In particular, we present a two‐phase life‐cycle model for integrated statistical microdata, which provides a framework for the various potential error sources, and outline some concepts and topics for quality assessment beyond the ideal of error‐free data. A shared understanding of these issues will hopefully help us to collocate and coordinate efforts in future research and development.     

Social indicators and social accounts

This paper defines “social indicators” as statistics which have two denning characteristics. They are, first, measures of direct normative interest; that is, what the economist would call measures of “welfare” and “illfare”. Most existing government statistics are not of this type, because a large proportion of existing statistics are measures of government or other institutional activity, produced as a by-product of accounting or administrative routine. The second defining characteristic of a social indicator is that it should fit into a systematic scheme of classification or aggregation which would make possible a balanced assessment of socio-economic progress or retrogression in some broad area, as well as disaggregated and detailed study of particular problems.

The work in government on social indicators was designed in part to meet the needs of Toward a Social Report, a preliminary study of the condition of American society issued by the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (Superintendent of Documents, Wash. D.C. 20402; 1969). Social indicators can also fit, with other statistics, into a set of “policy accounts” or scheme of social accounting, which would relate social expenditures to the social indicator they were designed to affect. This would encourage broadened cost-benefit analysis and rational public decision-making.     

On the Degree of Property Tax Assessment Inequity in Complex Tax Jurisdictions

A bstract . The extent of interest in the degree of inequity in property assessment is indicative of the importance of identifying determinants of assessment inequity. Previous attempts to identify such determinants were certainly incomplete. An additional variable is offered for the list that would be expected to explain statistically the degree of inequity in the distribution of property tax liabilities , in general, and to examine specifically the relationship between assessment, inequity and the degree of complexity for assessing Jurisdictions. The latter are often complex in the sense that individual properties, although subject to a set of two or more nominal tax rates on assessed values, are not subject to the same set of nominal tax rates. It is argued—to the extent that individual property tax liabilities are capitalized in sale prices for individual properties —that the greater the number of specific property tax rates on assessed value , the greater is the expected frequency of change in such specific property tax rates and, therefore, the higher the expected value of the measure of the degree of inequity.     

体育课程考核对我国高职院校的发展影响分析

体育课程考核工作,是影响高职体育课程改革成败的重要因素。运用问卷调查法、专家访谈法、数理统计法等研究方法,对我国14所高职院校体育课程的考核现状进行调查分析,探索适应我国高职院校发展的考核方式和内容,进一步推进我国高职院校的发展。     

Organization and Management in an Anglo-French Consortium: The Case of Transmanche-Link

This paper presents the results of a comparative organizational assessment of the behaviour and organization of the British and French managers who constructed the Channel Tunnel. In the context of a common adhocratic organization, a principal components analysis of the survey results differentiates the British and French respondents on five dimensions: fonceur /procedural; competitive/collegial; involved/distanced; individualistic/supportive; and stress. These quantitative results are supported by qualitative data from interviews and open-ended questions. A preliminary explanation of the results in terms of a configurational analysis of the differences between the British and French managers surveyed is then offered. The paper argues that an organizational assessment methodology is compatible with societal approaches which attempt to understand nationally distinctive configurations of organization and management.     

The Marketization of Local Services and the Fragmentation of Labour Markets

This paper is a product of the ESRC's Local Governance research programme which considers the employment implications of the introduction of market forces into the provision of local government services in the United Kingdom. It discusses the fragmentation of labour markets as both a process and outcome of the commercialization of local service provision. In contrast to privatization scenarios, marketization suggests the blurring of the distinction between public and private employment deriving from the commercialization of municipal services and the transmission of local authority work organization and culture into the private sector. An assessment of employment change, workforce recomposition and bargaining capacity is offered which leads to the development of new models for institutional restructuring. ‘Sectoral de-differentiation’ is a concept developed to address the evolution of new labour market patterns and a ‘public capsule’ model is offered to explain the locality and service variations in marketization outcomes.