中国通货膨胀的福利成本研究

Inflation is always an important indicator to measure whether economy is stable and healthy. This paper provides a substantive survey of the research on the welfare cost of inflation, and uses the methods of consumer’s surplus and neo-classical general equilibrium models respectively to estimate the welfare cost of inflation in China. The results show that high inflation will cause huge welfare cost in China, so keeping low inflation is beneficial to the entire economic welfare of China. __________ Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2007, (4): 30–42, 159     

A long-run,short-run,and politico-economic analysis of the welfare costs of inflation

The long-run, short-run, and politico-economic welfare implications of inflation are assessed in a Bewley model of money demand. All agents produce and consume every period, and hold money to self-insure against idiosyncratic risk. The model is calibrated so the equilibrium monetary distribution shares features with US data. The long-run welfare costs of inflation are shown to be large because inflation reduces the ability of money to mitigate risk. However, the beneficial redistributive effect of inflation is magnified along the short-run transition and reduces the overall costs. These short-run benefits result in a majority-rule inflation rate above the Friedman Rule.     

Partial inflation indexation and long-run inflation targeting in a growing economy: A comparison of Calvo and Rotemberg pricing models

The observed 2% long run inflation target in most developed industrial nations is in variance with the zero or negative optimal inflation rates predicted by prominent monetary theories. Using a calibrated simple New-Keynesian model with endogenous growth and nominal rigidity, we compare two price setting environments of Calvo (1983) and Rotemberg (1982). In our growth model, the steady state welfare maximizing inflation takes into account the growth effect as well as the price distortionary effects of inflation. The long-run welfare maximizing trend inflation could be positive in economies with nominal rigidity in the form of partial inflation indexation and price stickiness. A higher degree of inflation indexation lowers the steady state price distortion in the Calvo model and steady state price adjustment cost in Rotemberg model and raises the long run optimal inflation. Since the productive inefficiency caused by partial inflation indexation is higher in Calvo economy compared to Rotemberg, the long run optimal trend inflation is higher in Rotemberg than in Calvo. In both models, a two percent long run inflation target is attainable for a reasonable degree of inflation indexation.     

On the determinants of long-run inflation uncertainty: Evidence from a panel of 17 developed economies

Based on a cross section of 17 advanced economies and data for the period 1975 to 2015, we examine how the interaction between monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions affects inflation uncertainty in the long-term. We construct a proxy for the unobservable inflation uncertainty based on the slowly evolving long-term variance component of inflation from a Spline-GARCH model (Engle and Rangel, 2008). We show that long-run inflation uncertainty is high if an inflation-tolerant central bank governor is in power during a period of high inflation, if the policy rate is below the one that is prescribed by the Taylor rule and during times of heightened stock and exchange rate volatility.     

Carbon efficiency of US colleges and universities: a nonparametric assessment

Under the American College and University Presidents’ Climate Commitment (ACUPCC), institutes of higher education have pledged to pursue a goal of carbon neutrality. We utilize emissions reported under the ACUPCC agreement and a nonparametric data envelopment analysis approach in order to evaluate the relative performance of signatories to the agreement in terms of producing teaching and research with the least greenhouse gas emissions. We find that while many signatory institutions are now producing their desirable outputs relatively efficiently in terms of carbon emissions, there still exists considerable variation in efficiency and potential for improvement. Results of a second stage efficiency change analysis shows evidence of both movement towards the efficiency frontier since signing, and some movement of the frontier itself, though this evidence comes primarily from teaching-focused institutions.     

US inflation and output since the 1970s: a P-star approach

US inflation and output developments since the 1970s are considered using the P-star model and the VAR-based Diebold–Yilmaz spillover index approach. Shocks to monetary variables explain a substantial share of US GDP deflator inflation shocks over time, particularly in the late 1980s and early 1990s but also in recent years, a time when quantitative easing was employed by the Federal Reserve. Monetary factors, and not oil shocks, underlie price developments in the 1970s and early 1980s. Monetary shocks’ influence on oil prices has become noticeably stronger over the past ten years or so, supporting the greater attention being paid of late to the impact of the monetary environment on commodity markets. Shocks to the velocity-of-money variable affect output developments, with the exception of the 1970s and early 1980s when inflation shocks and, to a lesser extent, oil inflation shocks dominate the cross-variance share of output gap shocks. After the Volcker disinflation, the influence of both inflation and oil price shocks on the output gap wane and those of velocity gap shocks increase.     

Korean inflation during the US military administration of 1945-1948: a further analysis

This paper investigates the dynamic process of Korean inflation under the US military administration using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) incorporating cointegration relations among the variables. The results show that government expenditure shocks are primarily responsible for price movements together with money demand shocks having noticeable short-run impacts. The study also shows that government expenditure shocks are the most important source of fluctuations in each of the other variables investigated. The paper concludes that a reform of fiscal and monetary system is necessary to stop the sustaining process of inflation as well as fluctuations in other macro-variables.     

The evolution of inflation expectations in Canada and the US

We model inflation forecasts as monotonically diverging from an estimated long‐run anchor point towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecaster‐level data for Canada and the US, we identify three key differences between the two countries. First, the average estimated anchor of US inflation forecasts has tended to decline gradually over time in rolling samples, from 3.4% for 1989–1998 to 2.2% for 2004–2013. By contrast, it has remained close to 2% since the mid‐1990 for Canadian forecasts. Second, the variance of estimates of the long‐run anchor is considerably lower for the panel of Canadian forecasters than US ones following Canada's adoption of inflation targets. And third, forecasters in Canada look much more alike than those in the US in terms of the weight that they place on the anchor. One explanation for these results is that an explicit inflation‐targeting regime (Canada) provides for less uncertainty about future monetary policy actions than a monetary policy regime where there was no explicit numerical inflation target (the US before 2012) to anchor expectations.     

Managing external macroeconomic imbalances in the EU: the welfare cost of scoreboard-based constraints

This paper investigates the consequences of introducing a new economic governance tool in the European Union - Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. We focus on the external imbalances and especially on the lower limit of −4% imposed on the current account deficit to GDP ratio. Using a 2-region, 2-sector New Keynesian DSGE model and Woodford's technique to operationalise inequality constraints, we demonstrate that it is possible to accordingly adjust monetary and fiscal policy. The utility-based welfare loss remains very limited as compared to optimum unconstrained policy, as measured for Poland on the basis of Bayesian estimation, and this result is robust over a wide range of parameter values. The cost is slightly lower i.a. when (i) the monetary policy is autonomous (outside the euro area), (ii) for non-converging economies, (iii) when the limit is relaxed by incorporating positive capital account to GDP ratio. The procedure also envisages lower limits on REER and ULC dynamics, but the latter can be in conflict with the CA constraint, especially in the monetary union. Therefore, the scoreboard-based evaluation of external imbalances - while not very costly - has definitely some room for fine-tuning in the course of future MIP reforms.     

To converge or not converge: unit labor cost inflation in the Euro area

In this article, convergence of unit labor cost (ULC) inflation within the Euro area is tested by means of panel unit root tests. To account for the small cross-sectional dimension, cross-sectional dependence of model innovations and time varying volatility, wild bootstrap critical values are employed for inference. Convergence is tested separately for pre- and post-Euro introduction subperiods. Moreover, we identify particular economies that are characterized by diverging ULC inflation after the introduction of the Euro. While the German economy is characterized by ULC inflation which is persistently below the sample average, Spain and Italy have suffered sustained losses of price competitiveness against their trading partners within the Euro area. ULC inflation in Finland, France, and Ireland can be classified as neutral with respect to relative competitive positions.     

Alternative indicators for predicting the probability of declining inflation: evidence from the US

The performance of inflation indicators for predicting the probabilityof inflation falling inside constant and moving targets is consideredwith a probit model using US data. Given the Federal ReserveSystem's emphasis on achieving price stability, particular attentionis given to the target that future inflation will be below recentinflation. In contrast with earlier years, the unemploymentand capacity utilisation rates do not perform well in forecastingthe direction of inflation in the mid and late 1990s. We suggestthat extending the Keynesian Phillips curve analysis to considerchanges in labour market conditions, technological advance andworker skills, and openness will increase understanding of theseissues.     

Asymmetric size-dependent effects of the output gap on inflation: US evidence from the last half a century

This article examines asymmetric size- and sign-dependent effects of the output gap on the US quarterly inflation rate using data from the last half a century (1959Q2–2013Q1). Consistent with previous studies, it is found that the consumer price index is cointegrated with the unit labour cost and the price of oil. A short-run dynamic model is then estimated in which variations in the output gap are divided into three groups: large-positive; large-negative; and small-medium positive/negative. The results provide convincing evidence that only sufficiently large (positive or negative) variations of the output gap can significantly influence inflation. Put otherwise, relatively small to medium changes in the output gap exert no significant impact on inflation and if not separated, they can somewhat obscure the significant effects associated with large variations of the output gap. This study can lead to greater consensus on the inflation–output gap nexus. The findings remain robust despite the use of different measures of output gap and they are consistent with the modern doctrine but with a new caveat: inflation responds to both positive and negative changes in the output gap as long as such variations are of sizable magnitudes.     

Natural capital, subjective well-being, and the new welfare economics of sustainability: Some evidence from cross-country regressions

The measurement of natural capital and its management during the economic development process are important aspects of the capital approach to sustainable development. However, the assessment of social welfare in terms of genuine savings (or changes in total wealth per capita) is arguably too limited. This paper tries to make a case for the incorporation of subjective well-being measures in debates about sustainable development by exploring the macro-level relationship between subjective well-being and natural capital in a cross-country setting. It is tested whether natural capital per capita is correlated with subjective well-being in a sample of fifty-eight developed and developing countries, using natural capital data from the World Bank's Millennium Capital Assessment. Bivariate regressions indicate that it is. When multiple regression models are estimated that include (a) major country-level determinants of subjective well-being (GNI per capita, social capital, income distribution, unemployment, inflation), and (b) regional dummy variables for ex-Soviet Union and Latin American countries, the positive correlation remains. The role of data outliers is carefully explored, and the sensitivity of the results to the use of alternative subjective well-being measures (i.e. life satisfaction, happiness, and a combined life satisfaction and happiness index) is investigated. This does not change the nature of the results. The findings arguably strengthen the case for a ‘new welfare economics of sustainability’ that takes subjective well-being measures into account.     

The long-run decline in the share of agricultural and food products in international trade: a gravity equation approach to its causes

The objective of this study is to determine the causes of the loss of share of agricultural products and food in international trade. The article compares, using a gravity model, the impact of various factors upon bilateral trade in agricultural products, in manufactures and in total trade, between 1963 and 2000 for a representative sample of 40 countries. The results clearly demonstrate how the low demand elasticity for agricultural products and food, the high degree of protectionism to which they were subjected and their meagre share in intra-industrial trade are the principal causes of their relatively slow growth.     

On dynamic stability in monetary models which incorporate short- and long-run expectations of inflation in the demand for the money function

The demand for money function should depend on the long-run rate of inflation. A model of macroeconomic fluctuations based on short-run unanticipated inflation is used, together with adaptive expectations to develop conditions for price stability. It is shown that Cagan's conditions are neither necessary nor efficient.     

Estimation of cost functions in a data poor environment: the case of capacity estimation in fisheries

Fisheries economic analysis is often handicapped by the lack of adequate data to undertake robust econometric analyses. In this study, a translog cost function was required to estimate the potential direction of adjustment in a UK fleet segment if a new regulatory regime was introduced. However, the available data were not appropriate for such estimation. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used to modify the data subsequently used in the estimation of the long-run cost function. The resulting model appears robust and is consistent with economic theory and the supporting evidence produced using DEA.     

Measuring efficiency in the public sector using nonparametric frontier estimators: a study of transit agencies in the USA

Transit agencies in the USA must provide service under increasing operating constraints. Using data from 1989–1993, technical efficiency among these firms is estimated and characteristics indicative of differential efficiency in transit agencies are identified. This paper verifies the robustness of the second step regression results to the choice of efficiency measure by comparing results of the two step regressions using a pair of non-parametric efficiency estimators. It is discovered that the structure of government subsidy to this industry negatively affects not just cost efficiency, but technical efficiency as well. Furthermore, maintenance appears to be an important component of operational efficiency in this industry.     

Economics research in Canada: a long-run assessment of journal publications

Abstract.  We examine the publications of authors affiliated with an economics research institution in Canada in (1) the Top-10 journals in economics according to journals' impact factors, and (2) the Canadian Journal of Economics . We consider all publications in the even years from 1980 to 2000. Canadian economists contributed about 5% of publications in the Top-10 journals and about 55% of publications in the Canadian Journal of Economics over this period. We identify the most active research centres and identify trends in their relative outputs over time. Those research centres successful in publishing in the Top-10 journals are found to also dominate the Canadian Journal of Economics . Additionally, we check the robustness of our findings with respect to journal selection, and we present data on authors' PhD origin, thereby indicating output and its concentration in graduate education.     

Revisiting the US money demand function: an application of the Lagrange multiplier structural break unit root test and the bounds test for a long-run relationship

In this article, we examine the issue of a levels relationship and stability of the US money demand function over the period 1959:01 to 2004:02. We use the Lagrange multiplier structural break unit root test and the bounds testing approach to a long-run relationship in levels of the variables, namely real money demand, nominal interest rate and real income. We find greater evidence for a long-run relationship in levels and stability of the US money demand function when we use M2 as a proxy for money demand. However, we find little evidence for a long-run relationship between M1 and M2 with their determinants for the recent period, spanning the last decade or so.     

Measurement error in the Current Population Survey: a nonparametric look

"This article utilizes an exact match file between the 1978 March [U.S.] Current Population Survey and administrative records from the Social Security Administration to analyze errors in the reporting of annual income using nonparametric methodology.... Three new findings are of interest: there is higher measurement error in cross-sectional samples than in panels. The negative relationship between measurement error and earnings is driven largely by overreporting among low earners. Median response errors are not related to earnings."