浅析金融一体化的发展历程及前景

随着全球经济关系的不断融合,全球金融一体化趋势越来越显著。虽然国际金融危机的发生会对各国经济有一定的影响,但是全球金融一体化也为各国带来新的合作和机遇。因此,加大对金融一体化发展历程和发展前景的研究,对加强各国经济发展,抵御金融危机带来的影响具有重要意义。     

次区域国际经济一体化中的产业地域性聚集机理研究

针对世界各地十分活跃的次区域国际经济合作,本文通过构建一个空间经济学的两国四地区“中心-外围”模型,分析次区域国际经济一体化中产业向合作区聚集的过程和影响因素,试图回答为什么有些合作区发展快而另一些合作区进展缓慢的问题.研究发现,次区域国际经济一体化中的产业地域性聚集,取决于参与次区域合作国家的工业化水平、内部空间结构和境外参与合作国家的产业结构特征等因素.     

我国参与大湄公河次区域经济合作中存在的问题及对策

20世纪90年代初,东南亚地区进入了和平与发展的新时期,次区域合作也得以迅速发展。大湄公河次区域(GMS)经济合作是亚洲开发银行牵头,由中国、缅甸、老挝、泰国、柬埔寨、越南六个澜沧江—湄公河沿岸国家共同参与的一个次区域经济合作机制,旨在通过加强次区域国家的联系,提高次区域的竞争力,实现次区域的一体化,推动本地区经济和社会发展。本文通过分析我国参与大湄公河次区域经济合作的现状和存在问题,提出我国在参与大湄公河次区域经济合作时应采取的对策,希望有一定的参考价值。     

跨国次区域经济合作区与自由贸易区的分析——以GMS和CAFTA为例

作为区域经济一体化的一种新形式,跨国次区域经济合作区与传统的区域经济一体化组织有诸多不同。文章通过对跨国次区域经济合作区与典型传统的区域经济一体化组织—自由贸易区的分析比较,认为跨国次区域经济合作会在很大程度上促进相应的区域经济一体化合作的新发展。     

欧盟间接税协调对泛北部湾次区域合作的启示

作为中国—东盟自由贸易区框架下＂海上次区域＂经济合作的新平台,泛北部湾次区域已逐渐成为中国—东盟自由贸易区的前沿地带。加强该区域内各国的间接税协调,将对整个自由贸易区的经济一体化发展产生重要影响。本文旨在借鉴欧盟间接税协调的实践经验,对泛北部湾次区域合作的间接税协调进行探讨。     

金融开放和金融安全战略

<正>经济全球化在现阶段最显著的表现是金融全球化,而各国金融市场逐渐融为一体是金融全球化的核心内容。在一体化的全球金融市场上,成百上千亿的资金可以在转瞬间从地球的这一端转移到     

基于GMS陆路交通一体化的族群发展研究

大湄公河次区域（简称GMS）是中国与东南亚各国少数民族比较集中、跨境民族较多的欠发达地区。在GMS区域一体化合作中,应充分发挥交通一体化的功能和作用,建设互联互通的区域交通网络,通过陆路交通一体化来带动区域经济一体化,促进区域少数民族的繁荣发展。     

东亚金融合作的探讨与进展

东亚货币金融合作作为经济一体化的重要组成部分和显著特征，其发展离不开东-区域经济一体化的支持，东亚地区各国经济水平从根本上制约了东亚货币金融合作程度。国际金融体系在根本上存在缺陷及其在亚洲金融危机期间的拙劣表现．是东亚货币金融合作另一个有力推动因素。     

“一带一路”沿线国家生物多样性保护的经济效应研究

本文以澜湄次区域合作为例,分析了“一带一路”沿线国家生物多样性受到冲击后对经济的影响及其传导机制。数值模拟结果显示,任何一个国家遭受生物多样性负面冲击都将会给次区域各国带来巨大的福利损失。次区域生物多样性保护的博弈结果显示,当不存在次区域利益协调机制时,各国都将采取不进行生物多样性保护策略,从而陷入“囚徒困境”状态,但在长期的动态博弈中,各国考虑到长远利益将更多地采取生物多样性保护策略。基于此,本文提出加强澜湄次区域信息沟通机制、完善生物多样性保护成本分摊机制与制度约束、协调经济发展与生物多样保护等建议。     

从“东南亚联盟”到“亚洲联盟”之路

有人评论说，东亚经济一体化的构想远未实现，谈“亚盟”为时过早。我认为，东亚经济一体化是“亚盟”的重要组成部分，东亚经济一体化外，还有东北亚、南亚、中亚等次区域的经济一体化，正是这些次区域的经济一体化，构成了整个亚洲经济的一体化。把“亚盟”的实现作为一个次区域经济一体化的总目标提出来，很有必要。“亚洲联盟”决不是一个口号，而是一个趋势，一个方向，一个目标。     

东亚金融一体化的动态及其收益

近年来，东亚一系列区域金融合作引起了学术界对地区金融一体化现状和收益的极大兴趣。文章基于价格和数量的测度考察了东亚地区金融一体化的程度：抛补利差和股权溢价的β收敛结果表明，危机之前东亚金融市场的全球和区域一体化并行，但在近几年，区域一体化趋势更强劲，超过了全球一体化；金融引力模型的结果表明，东亚主要的跨境金融投资者的区域内金融资产持有量比金融引力模型预测的水平更大。此外，面板回归确定了较高的金融一体化作为更广泛的金融发展的关键组成部分，会显著降低东亚国家对发达国家的经常账户失衡，因此，区域层面的金融一体化可以作为加强东亚国家的增长来源和提高经济弹性的重要政策路径。     

International trade and economic growth: evidence from a panel ARDL-PMG approach

The purpose of this work is to study the impact of trade openness on the economic growth of the countries bordering the Mediterranean using a panel of eight countries from 1975 to 2016. We apply ARDL panel which is a technique recently developed. We study the effects of openness to international trade on economic growth while incorporating economic policy variables. The results show that the variables of commercial and financial openness favor economic growth. The free trade agreements that the European Union has signed with certain countries in the Mediterranean basin are designed above all to encourage greater regional economic integration and an increase in their potential growth. Therefore, our findings show that the financial sector is slow to affect economic growth in these countries. This study reveals that human capital and the investment rate support the economic growth of our sample. In addition, we conclude that a process of economic convergence has begun in these countries. A causal analysis was carried out we found an unidirectional causality ranging from economic growth to trade openness.

     

金融市场开放条件下中国金融监管体制改革构想

置身于世纪之交全球经济一体化的滚滚潮流,面对金融市场全面开放的机遇和挑战,怎样建立和完善适应开放经济条件下的中国金融监管体制,向国际金融监管原则和发展方向靠拢,以确保中国经济、金融与国际接轨,实现健康快速发展,就成为中国金融改革不可回避的重要现实问题。而金融监管并没有一个标准统一的模式,也不存在一个普遍使用的通用模式,一个合理的金融监管体制应在既尊重传统与现实,又在考虑未来金融发展趋势的基础上,结合各国的历史、文化、经济金融运行状况等实际情况,选择最适合自己国情的监管模式。     

Why are currency crises contagious? A comparison of the Latin American Crisis of 1994–1995 and the Asian Crisis of 1997–1998

Why Are Currency Crises Contagious? A Comparison of the Latin American Crisis of 1994–1995 and the Asian Crisis of 1997–1998.—This paper analyzes three channels through which currency crises are transmitted between countries: contagion based on unsustainable economic fundamentals; contagion resulting from herding behaviour in financial markets; contagion induced by close trade integration. The presented model that links currency crises with these three types of contagion is employed to analyze the transmission of the Mexican crisis in 1994–1995 and the Thai crisis in 1997 to other emerging economies. The empirical results show that, first, the most important contagion channels were based on close financial and trade integration rather than on the weakness of macroeconomic fundamentals. Second, the vulnerability to capital flow reversals and weak financial sectors made countries particularly prone to a currency crisis, while external imbalances and currency misalignments were much less important. JEL no. F30, E60, E65, E44     

Decline in the persistence of real exchange rates,but not sufficient for purchasing power parity

The paper investigates the possibility of decline in the persistence of real exchange rates, or deviations from PPP. To this end, we test the null hypothesis of no decline in the PPP deviation persistence between two subsamples using a fractional integration framework. The test rejects the null at the 10% significance level for nine out of 17 countries, providing solid evidence for a decline in the persistence of real exchange rates. However, the decline is not sufficient for PPP, meaning we fail to reject the unit root hypothesis even in the latter period for all 17 countries. In addition, our rolling-window estimates show that the real exchange rate of many countries have experienced a sharp drop in their persistence once we use samples starting from the mid-1980s. Finally, we examine the relationship between the dynamics of PPP deviation persistence and several economic variables and confirm that the speed of convergence of PPP deviations is highly related to economic/financial integration and world economic stabilization.     

东亚金融一体化:基于资本流动的实证分析

自1997年亚洲金融危机爆生后,为了避免对外国资金的过分依赖,防止危机的再次发生,东亚各国(地区)陆续开放本国资本账户,加快区域间的资本流动以推进东亚金融一体化。本文从资本流动的角度对东亚的金融一体化程度做出分析,研究发现东亚金融一体化程度并不高,但在金融危机之后有所加强,而其中东盟是东亚各子区域中金融一体化程度最高的区域。     

关于东亚区域货币合作问题的分析

1997年的亚洲金融危机给东亚各国的经济带来了沉重打击。此后,东亚各国纷纷认识到开展区域内货币金融合作的必要性,并以此来增强抵御风险、化解危机的能力。这次亚洲金融危机改变了东亚国家的政策取向,区域经济一体化步入制度性安排的快车道,这也为东亚区域货币合作创造了条件。另外,美元区与欧元区的相继建立和运行不仅证实了最优货币区理论在实践上的可行性,也增强了东亚各国在货币合作问题上取得成功的信心。本文将要对东亚区域货币合作问题做以探讨分析,从而说明东亚区域货币合作的必要性和可行性。     

Financial Development and Economic Growth in Sub‐Saharan African Countries: Evidence from Time Series Analysis

Abstract: This paper seeks to empirically explore the causal link between the level of financial development and economic growth in 13 sub‐Saharan African countries. The empirical investigation is carried out in a vector autoregression (VAR) framework based on the theory of cointegration and error‐correction representation of cointegrated variables. The results of the cointegration analysis provide evidence of the existence of a long‐run relationship between financial development and economic growth in almost all (12 out of 13) of the countries. With respect to the direction of long‐term causality, the results show that financial development plays a causal role on economic growth, again in eight of the countries. At the same time, evidence of bidirectional causal relationships is found in six countries. The findings imply that African countries can accelerate their economic growth by improving their financial systems.     

Identifying Financial Distress Indicators of Selected Banks in Asia

The banking sector plays a pivotal role in the economic development of most Asian countries. In 1997, a full-fledged banking and financial crisis took place in South Asian countries. Many banks had to be bailed out by their governments. It is believed that an examination of indicators that led to the problems suffered by banks in this region will be of enormous benefit. Models were developed for each country that identified banks experiencing financial distress as a function of financial ratios. The countries in the study include Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand. The banking sectors of these three countries are ideal for this study, as the banks enjoyed profitability during the pre-crisis period and were the most severely affected by the financial crisis in 1997. Logistic regression was used to analyze the data sample from 1995 to 1997. In the findings, capital adequacy, loan management and operating efficiency are three common performance dimensions found to be able to identify problem banks in all three countries. It is hoped that the financial ratios and results of the models will be useful to bankers and regulators in identifying problem banks in Asia.     

东亚货币合作的现状分析及中国的战略选择

经济全球化和区域经济一体化的世界经济趋势对东亚货币合作提出了迫切要求,东亚国家在金融领域暴露出的金融体系脆弱性要求加强东亚货币合作。鉴于亚洲地区政治经化的复杂性和差异性,整个亚洲的金融合作条件远未成熟,但东亚地区的经济往来密切,具备了一定的基础。本文对东亚货币合作的现状和未来可能的路径和前景进行分析,并对中国的参与提出建议。