Microsoft's Pricing of Windows and the Economics of Derived Demand Monopoly

The economic experts in the Microsoft case debated whether Microsoft's pricing of Windows was consistent with Microsoft having a monopoly over personal computer (PC) operating systems. In this debate, PCs were treated as a single homogeneous commodity. This paper demonstrates that PC heterogeneity is likely to reduce substantially the monopoly price of Windows. The reason is that low-end PCs, which surely have the more elastic demand, are of disproportionate importance in determining the elasticity of derived demand for Windows.     

The Year in Review: Economics at the Antitrust Division, 2020–2021

Challenging anticompetitive acquisitions of nascent competitors is a top priority of the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice. It is especially important that competition agencies remain vigilant of such acquisitions in platform markets, where indirect network effects and other market forces tend to preserve the status quo at the expense of smaller, more innovative rivals and potentially final consumers. This article discusses two such attempted acquisitions: (1) Visa’s acquisition of technology firm Plaid that threatened to disrupt Visa’s monopoly power in online debit; and (2) Sabre’s acquisition of Farelogix, which is a firm that allows airlines to connect directly to travel agencies and thereby disintermediates Sabre and other global distribution systems.

     

“失控”的手机江湖

“小米手机还未正式发售，各种明枪暗箭扑面而来，让子弹先飞一会吧。8月29日，工陧纪念版，小米不跳票。”8月22日早上8点，雷军一大早发的这条微博引来了1300多条的评论和转发。当天下午1点多，雷军又发了另外一条微博，只有10个字：“他横任他横，明月照大江。”     

Upgrading and niche usage of PC operating systems

Microsoft has been dominating the market for PC operating systems (OS) for the last two decades. This paper analyzes the decision of firms to standardize on the mainstream OS family and assesses whether upgrading to the latest version within the MS family is a substitute for using niche OS. We address the following questions: (1) How likely is a firm to standardize on the Microsoft family? (2) How quickly will a firm upgrade to a new version of the mainstream system? (3) Which niche operating system is a firm likely to use, if any? We find that upgrading and niche usage seem to be substitutes to some extent, but that larger and more IT-intensive firms will rather use niche systems than upgrade to the latest Windows version.     

On modifying the MFJ

When the Bell operating companies (BOCs) were separated from AT&T in 1984, restrictions were imposed on the BOCs' business operations. The US Department of Justice was required to report every three years on the continuing need for these restrictions. Two reports were filed in February 1987 which contain a wealth of information and analysis, and recommend a waiver of most of the restrictions. This comment examines the mechanism by which regulation has historically distorted economic efficiency, and how the two reports address the mechanisms of monopoly distortion.     

A Monopolist Would Still Charge More for Windows: A Comment on Werden's Reply

Werden's reply to our comment does nothing to cast doubt on our fundamental conclusion: Microsoft's pricing of Windows is inconsistent with thegovernment's claim that Windows is a monopoly, protected by high entry barriers.     

Strategic segmentation of a market

When competing firms target information towards specific consumers through direct marketing activities, complete segmentation of markets can result. We analyze a two-stage duopoly where, prior to price competition, each firm targets information to specific consumers and only consumers informed by a firm can buy from it. This has the effect of endogenously determining market segments in a model of ‘sales'. In equilibrium, pure local monopoly emerges; firms target and sell to mutually exclusive market segments. When the cost of marketing approaches zero, market shares reflect relative production efficiency (equal shares when firms are symmetric); this may not be the case when marketing cost is high.     

AT&T and the consent decree

For years AT&T has been accused of being too big, too powerful and too pervasive. Since the late 1960s, FCC decisions aimed at introducing limited competition in some areas of the telecomunications market have eroded AT&T's monopoly position. Then, in 1974, the Department of Justice filed its antitrust suit seeking to dismantle the Bell System. In January 1982, AT&T signed a Consent Decree requiring them to divest the local portions of its 22 Bell operating companies. In this comment, Charles Brown (Chairman of the Board of AT&T) describes the build-up to AT&T's decision to agree to divestiture, and outlines how AT&T os adapting to the new telecommunications environment.     

行政垄断制度选择的一般分析框架——以我国电信业行政垄断制度的动态变迁为例

行政垄断是政府机构利用行政权力对竞争进行限制和排斥，会造成资源配置扭曲、社会福利损失、收入分配不均以及地方保护和区域市场分割等问题。但现实中行政垄断是客观并普遍存在的．在特定的经济环境中．行政垄断作为资源配置的一种手段发挥了市场调节无法实现的作用。本文借鉴新比较经济学的社会制度选择分析框架，建立了行政垄断制度选择的一般分析框架．并以此来重新思考行政垄断制度选择问题．最后应用该一般分析框架分析我国电信产业行政垄断制度的动态变迁过程。为我国行政垄断制度的改革提供一个一般分析框架和相应的理论指导乃本文目的之所在。     

Consumer referrals

In many industries, firms reward their customers for making referrals. We analyze a monopoly’s optimal policy mix of price, advertising intensity, and referral fee when buyers choose to what extent to refer other consumers to the firm. When the referral fee can be optimally set by the firm, it will charge the standard monopoly price. The firm always advertises less when it uses referrals. We extend the analysis to the case where consumers can target their referrals. In particular, we show that referral targeting could be detrimental for consumers in a low-valuation group.     

基于商品质量偏好的双边市场定价策略分析

本文研究了双边市场一方用户群体提供商品或服务的质量在垄断市场情形和单归属（接入）寡头垄断市场情形下对双边市场平台定价问题。研究结果表明：在寡头垄断情形下,消费方和厂商的接入费用和其本身对质量的敏感程度及质量成本系数相关,平台具有鼓励符合条件的用户接入平台的动机。在单归属的寡头垄断情形下,平台之间的厂商无质量差异时,平台倾向于定高价以获取由商品质量引起的双边市场的剩余价值,而消费者和厂商均没有提高商品质量的要求和激励;在寡头平台之间的商品或服务质量差距小,质量信息不透明时,优势平台会随着质量差距扩大而提高厂商的接入费用,其消费者的数量也会增多;若质量信息透明,质量劣势平台为了保持市场份额,其价格与另一寡头平台的消费者市场的接入费用差距与质量差距成正比,而在厂商市场的接入费用差距与质量差距成反比。     

Surplus extraction by network providers: Implications for net neutrality and innovation

This paper looks at surplus extraction by network providers who control the medium of information transfer between application developers and consumers, and addresses the following questions: is net neutrality beneficial to society? and does providing network providers flexibility in pricing stunt innovation in the long run? To answer the first question, it looks at a market consisting of a monopoly network provider and two application providers with non-substitutable products, using a simple single period model. It shows that net neutrality is necessary to ensure maximal benefit to the society. To answer the second question, the paper shows that a monopoly network provider, if allowed complete flexibility in pricing, does not necessarily stunt innovation. Looking at a market that consists of one network provider and one application provider, and using a simple multi-period model, it shows that given maximum flexibility the network provider not only encourages innovation when the potential benefits are sufficiently high but also maximizes surplus. This paper takes the view that the topic of net neutrality is not only controversial but also complicated, and suggests that policy makers use a balanced approach based on sound analysis.     

Price discrimination through refund contracts in airlines

This paper shows how an airline monopoly uses refundable and non-refundable tickets to screen consumers who are uncertain about their travel. Our theoretical model predicts that the difference between these two fares diminishes as individual demand uncertainty is resolved. Using an original data set from U.S. airline markets, we find strong evidence supporting our model. Price discrimination opportunities through refund contracts decline as the departure date nears and individuals learn about their demand.     

ENDOGENOUS COSTS AND PRICE‐COST MARGINS: AN APPLICATION TO THE EUROPEAN AIRLINE INDUSTRY*

This paper allows for endogenous costs in the estimation of price cost margins. In particular, we estimate price‐cost margins when firms bargain over wages. We extent the standard two‐equation set‐up (demand and first‐order condition in the product market) to include a third equation, which is derived from bargaining over wages. In this way, price‐cost margins are determined by wages and vice versa. We implement the model using data for eight European airlines from 1976–1994, and show that the treatment of endogenous costs has important implications for the measurement of price‐cost margins and the assessment of market power. Our main result is that observed prices in Europe are virtually identical to monopoly prices, even though observed margins are consistent with Nash behavior. Apparently, costs had been inflated to the point that the European consumers were faced with a de facto monopoly prices.     

Estimating Consumer Inertia in Repeated Choices of Smartphones*

For a sample of 9,799 subscribers to a single mobile operator, we observe switching between mobile handsets between July, 2011, and December, 2014. We estimate a discrete choice model in which we account for disutility from switching to different operating systems and brands. Our estimation results indicate the presence of significant inertia in the choice of operating systems and brands. We use our model to simulate market shares in the absence of switching costs and conclude that the market shares of Android and smaller operating systems would increase at the expense of the market share of iOS in such a context.     

ANOTHER LOOK AT PRICE PROMOTION*

Weekly sales at retail stores exhibit several patterns that the literature on price promotion does not fully capture. In this paper we develop a simple symmetric model where duopoly manufacturers distribute through a monopoly retailer to serve consumers with heterogeneous reservation prices. We show that the heterogeneity in consumers' reservation prices coupled with the retailer's market power is sufficient to resolve the deficiency in the literature. We then show that, while pricing patterns under this model differ significantly from those under a model where the retailer has no market power, the manufacturers' expected profits are the same in both cases.     

DOES COPYRIGHT ENFORCEMENT ENCOURAGE PIRACY?*

When copyright enforcement is targeted at high‐value buyers such as corporate and government users, the copyright holder charges super‐monopoly prices, thereby encouraging low‐value buyers to switch to inferior pirated copies. We show that enlarging the copyright holder's captive market through more extensive copyright enforcement reduces prices toward the monopoly level, increases sales of legitimate copies and can increase consumer surplus. Therefore, in contrast with the case of more intensive copyright enforcement, more extensive copyright enforcement over some range can increase the incentive to generate intellectual property while also reducing the loss to consumers from monopoly power.     

Competitive targeted online advertising

This paper examines how an online publisher utilizes its information about consumer preference to target advertising. In our model, two firms first bid for a prominent ad position in a publisher-organized position auction, and then compete on price in the subsequent product marketplace. We consider two dimensions of consumer heterogeneity. First, consumers are heterogeneous in product preference. Based on their tastes, some consumers prefer one product over the other, whereas other consumers may rank the products in an opposite order. Second, consumers differ in search preference, i.e., “nonshoppers” only consider the advertised product, while “shoppers” always search both firms’ products before buying. We show that targeted advertising based on product preference will mitigate price competition in product markets as well as competition in position auctions, the latter to the detriment of the publisher. In contrast, targeted advertising based on search preference always benefits the publisher, as the winning firm can charge monopoly prices to nonshoppers. We show that the publisher’s optimal choice is to utilize only the information about consumer search preference. We also explore the welfare implications of targeted advertising based on different types of consumer preference.     

An antitrust analysis of non-profit hospital mergers

This paper considers such issues involved in non-profit hospital mergers as relevant product and geographic markets and the impacts of mergers on competition. The roles of non-price competition, entry barriers, and merger-generated efficiencies are considered. Close attention is given to the relevance of the Justice Department Merger guideline to the hospital industry. Through detailed examination of four litigated or challenged cases, the geographic market is shown to depend upon particular medical services. Outpatient services are found to comprise a separate market from inpatient hospital services, and non-profit status is determined to warrant the usual antitrust merger treatment.     

Competition reform and household welfare: A microsimulation analysis of the telecommunication sector in Ethiopia

This paper presents a novel simulation method for estimating the likely welfare effects of policy reforms aimed at increasing competition in strategic economic sectors such as mobile phone services. The proposed method relies on a partial equilibrium simulation approach and estimates the welfare impacts on current consumers and the potential welfare effects among new consumers brought into the market by changes in prices due to competition. This approach is applied to the information and communication technology (ICT) sector in Ethiopia, one of the three countries in the world with a monopoly in the market for mobile phone services. Based on household budget survey data for 2015/16 and departing from a baseline reform scenario that dilutes the market share of the state-owned monopoly to 45 percent, the simulation model estimates a 25.3 percent reduction in the price of mobile services and an increase in 5.7 million new users of mobile services. The predicted drop in prices and increased users would generate a combined relative welfare gain of 1.18 percent (1.09 percent among current users and 0.09 percent among new users), that could be translated into a 0.31 percentage point decline in the national poverty rate and equivalent to lifting about 275,000 people out of poverty. Alternative reform scenarios that dilute the market share of the monopoly to 75 percent and to 30 percent are expected to reduce poverty rate in 0.13 and 0.52 percentage points, respectively. The method proposed in this study represents a useful tool for promoting competition reforms in developing countries, particularly in sectors known for excluding significant segments of the population because of high consumer prices.