Improving Market Selection for Fed Beef Cattle: The Value of Real-Time Ultrasound and Relations Data

The introduction of value-based marketing has provided the industry with the means to price cattle based on their desired attributes and has provided an alternative marketing channel for producers to select. Gains can be made by selecting animals that will be "in the grid" for value-based marketing channels while screening out animals that won't and sending them to dressed-value or live-weight marketing channels. This study estimates the gains from using real-time ultrasound (RTU) as well as information on graded animal relations (i.e., animals that have the same parentage slaughtered and graded in previous years) to predict carcass quality and yield grades prior to slaughter. These predictions are used in an optimization model designed to select the marketing channel for individual animals that will maximize returns. The optimal marketing strategy from this study involves a mix of live-weight, dressed-weight and grid sales methods rather than marketing all of the animals together. The results suggest that increases in returns in the range of $0.61–27.26 per head from using relations data, $9.04-16.75 per head from using RTU measures and $11.27-27.93 per head from using both to selectively market beef animals. These estimates do not account for the gains that could be obtained from using RTU to improve market timing, i.e., to time when the animal will grade best.     

生猪养殖户从众行为存在性及形成机制研究以四川省1 127家养殖户仔猪补栏为例

[目的]多数养殖户在经营管理上往往注重短期利益,对生猪市场变化的反映是趋同的,容易在价格上涨时"一哄而上",在价格下跌时"一哄而下",这种从众行为对生猪供给造成了巨大冲击,不利于生猪生产和猪肉供给的稳定。[方法]文章以四川省12个生猪调出大县1 127个生猪养殖户为调查对象,运用二元Logistic回归法,构建了从众行为的检验模型,研究了养殖户仔猪补栏中的从众行为及其形成机制。[结果](1)养殖户仔猪补栏中存在明显的从众行为,即养殖户仔猪补栏决策明显受到其他生猪养殖者生产行为的影响;(2)从众行为服从逻辑追随律和先内后外律。当其他生猪养殖者生产效益越好时,养殖户仔猪补栏的从众行为越明显;生产规模相同的养殖户之间从众行为亦更为明显;(3)信息获取性从众和投机性从众是引起从众行为形成的内在原因;(4)生产规模及养殖技术对从众行为存在重要影响。[结论]厘清了养殖户生产中出现"一哄而上,一哄而下"群体性行为的原因,为理解生猪养殖者从众行为及生猪价格形成机制提供新的视角,丰富了农户行为及农产品价格形成机制的研究成果。     

THE ECONOMIC OPTIMISATION OF SOW REPLACEMENT DECISIONS BY STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING

A stochastic dynamic programming model is designed to determine the economic optimal replacement policy in swine breeding herds. This optimal policy maximises the present value of net revenues from sows present in the herd and from subsequent replacement gilts over a given planning horizon. The model also calculates the total extra profit to be expected from trying to retain an individual sow until her optimal lifespan and not replacing her immediately. This total extra profit is an economic index which makes it possible to rank sows within the herd on future profitability and, therefore, can be used as a management guide in culling decisions. For typical Dutch values the optimal replacement decisions result in an average herd life of 3.43 parities. The maximum economic life of sows of average productivity turns out to be 10 parities. All data can easily be adjusted to represent a specific herd or a different region of the world.     

Economic Analysis of the Policy for Accreditation of Dairy Farms Free of Bovine Brucellosis and Tuberculosis: Challenges for Small and Large Producers in Brazil

One of the cornerstones of the National Program for Control and Eradication of Bovine Brucellosis and Tuberculosis in Brazil is the voluntary accreditation of free herds. We developed a stochastic cost–benefit analysis model for two types of dairy herds (high yield Holstein‐Zebu crossbred females and lower productivity smaller scale herds) to identify the technical and economic constraints of this process. The initial prevalence of infected animals and the impact of the disease in the structure and performance of the herd were derived from secondary data. Information on the costs and benefits of herd sanitation were compiled into a cost–benefit model at the herd level. The last step consisted of a scenario simulation to evaluate the impact of alternative policies to the certification process. For each scenario, we calculate the probability over time of a Benefit–Cost Ratio greater than 1 and of an Internal Rate of Return above 1% (the discount rate used in the model). Results show that larger and more intensive dairy farms, and also herds affected by brucellosis compared with tuberculosis‐positive herds, are more likely to achieve financial gains from the certification investment. The compensation for culled animals is important in the initial phase of herd sanitation and the premium payment on milk would help farmers to achieve a return on the investment over time. The model can be adapted to different and dynamic production, epidemiological and economic settings.     

Constraints to the sustainability of a ‘systematised’ approach to livestock marketing amongst smallholder cattle producers in South Africa

Commercialization of smallholder agriculture in South Africa is underpinned by reforms to improve livestock off-take in communal areas and engage smallholder farmers with formal markets. To achieve this, Custom Feeding Programmes (CFPs) were established to improve the condition of communal cattle prior to their sale into formal markets and to ‘systematise’ the informal marketing of cattle in communal areas by enabling participants to achieve higher informal market prices. We evaluate the sustainability of eight CFPs located in Eastern Cape Province in terms of their ability to add value to smallholder cattle production and encourage market participation. Communities with CFPs achieved a 16.6% mean cattle off-take rate, substantially higher than in most communal systems. Furthermore, cattle sold through CFPs attained a 17% higher mean selling price than those sold through other marketing channels. However, these benefits were mainly realized by better-off farmers with larger cattle herds and greater ability to transport animals to and from CFPs. More marginalized farmers, particularly women, had low participation. CFPs also face challenges to their sustainability, including inconsistent feed and water supplies, poor infrastructure and high staff turnover. Key to enhancing participation in CFPs, will be improving the way they are supported and embedded within communities.     

Transformation of smallholder beef cattle production in Vietnam

This research describes and analyses how smallholder crop livestock farmers in rural Ea Kar, Vietnam, were able to take advantage of the rising demand for meat in urban centres and transform cattle production from a traditional, extensive grazing system to a more intensive, stall-fed system that supplied quality meat to urban markets. The traditional grazing system produced low-quality animals that could only be sold for local consumption. Introduction of the concept of farm-grown fodder production enabled farmers to produce fatter animals, achieving higher sale prices, and reduce labour inputs by moving from grazing to stall-feeding. These benefits convinced farmers, traders and local government that smallholder cattle production could be a viable enterprise and so stimulated stakeholder interest. Within 10 years, the way that cattle were produced and marketed changed considerably. By 2010, more than 3,000 smallholders had adopted farm-grown forages and stall-feeding, and many produced high-quality beef cattle. Traders had been able to develop access to urban markets as farmers were able to produce animals that satisfied the stringent quality requirements of urban markets. In addition to the underlying driver of strong market demand for quality meat, several factors contributed to this transition: (i) a convincing innovation – the use of farm-grown fodder – that provided immediate benefits to farmers and provided a vision for local stakeholders; (ii) a participatory, systems-oriented innovation process that emphasised capacity strengthening; (iii) a value chain approach that linked farmers and local traders to markets; (iv) the formation of a loosely structured coalition of local stakeholders that facilitated and managed the innovation process; and (v) technical support over a sufficiently long time period to allow innovation processes to become sustainable.     

Hog producer income losses under contagious animal disease restrictions

Eradication measures of a contagious animal disease may force farmers to keep ready-to-slaughter animals on the farm. As feeding heavy animals may reduce carcass quality and farmer income, farmers can adjust their feeding policy in order to decrease losses from delayed slaughter. The problem is interesting also from society's point of view because eradication measures can affect a large number of farms when a single farm is infected. A dynamic programming model is developed to study optimal hog feeding strategies when the timing of slaughter is restricted. The model takes into account carcass quality, its effects on timing of slaughter under given prices, and animal density on the farm. The results show that farmers suffer substantial losses due to delayed slaughter, and can minimize the losses by reducing energy feeding. The results give information on designing compensation schemes so that all farmers have economic incentives to implement preferred eradication policy.     

A Participatory Simulation to Facilitate Farmers' Adoption of Livestock Feeding Systems Based on Conservation Agriculture in the Uplands of Northern Vietnam

In the mountain areas of northern Vietnam, extensive husbandry of large-ruminants is limited by the lack of natural forage. Since 2000, the Mountain Agrarian System Program has been concerned with this issue and has evaluated technical alternatives aimed at sustainable integration of crop-livestock systems. One alternative consists of feeding systems for largeruminants based on cropping systems with plant cover. Diffusion of information about the new system is supported by a set of interactive communication tools for use between farmers and researchers. A participatory simulation method was developed that combines a compartmental model of the village territory with five technical innovations. Farmers simulate the adoption of the innovations they choose among food-forage cropping systems in rotation or in association, and urea-treated straw. They evaluate the quantity of forage that can be grown for their herd using the chosen set of techniques.

Simulations revealed farmers' constraints and objectives in adopting sustainable cropping systems on the hillsides while maintaining a small animal husbandry system. The results obtained by each farmer provide a useful basis for discussion about the implementation of innovation. This participatory simulation method could be more widely used to facilitate the diffusion of innovations such as integrating livestock feeding systems with conservation cropping practices.     

Scale Efficiency in the New Zealand Dairy Industry: a Non-parametric Approach

The aim in this article is to measure the scale efficiency of the New Zealand dairy industry and to examine the relationship between farm size and technical efficiency. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is applied to a sample of 264 dairy farms. The results suggest that 19 per cent of these farms are operating at optimal scale, 28 per cent at above optimal scale, and 53 per cent at below optimal scale. On average, the optimal size for New Zealand dairy farms is estimated at 83 hectares with a herd of 260 animals. Average technical efficiency is estimated at 89 per cent.     

The wealth of nature: economics as if survival mattered

Livestock play a key role in the lives of poor, rural people in developing countries, providing a major proportion of their cash income, capital assets, draught power, fuel and fertilizer. Rapid growth in demand for meat and dairy products in Asia presents both opportunities and challenges for livestock development and poverty alleviation. This paper explores the potential of livestock intensification to benefit the livelihoods of upland households and meet market demand in the Lao Peoples' Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), a South East Asian country undergoing significant economic change.

A review of the livestock sector in Asia shows increasing demand for live animals and meat in neighbouring Vietnam, Thailand and China. Lao PDR is well positioned to capitalize on the growing Asian livestock sector, however the extent livestock production in Lao PDR can reduce poverty, meet growing domestic meat demand and lift livestock exports is problematic. Findings from research in two upland northern provinces demonstrate how the introduction of forages for livestock has revolutionized the lives of some farmers and villages, but concludes that strategies are still needed to engage poorer households. The impacts of changing domestic and export markets are less certain, and are discussed within the context of environmental and public health, cultural traditions, economic development and sustainable livelihoods.     

中国草原管理的发展过程与趋势

[目的]在回顾中国草原管理发展历程的基础上,分析其状态及存在的问题,基于最新研究进展,探索和预测未来中国草原管理的发展趋势,为加强中国草原管理理论、方法和实践提供依据。[方法]运用文献资料分析法。[结果]中国草原管理已经历了游牧时期、粗放型管理时期、草畜平衡刚性管理时期。游牧时期,人—草—畜三者关系基本上处于一种自然动态平衡的状态之下;粗放型管理时期,人对畜的需求持续增加致使草—畜关系长期处于一种失衡状态,进而导致草原的大面积退化;草畜平衡刚性管理时期,相应的政策和管理计划方案陆续出台使得草—畜关系失衡状态得到了一定缓解,但仍然没彻底解决人—草—畜三者的矛盾关系问题。[结论]草畜平衡弹性精准管理是当前中国草原管理的主要发展方向,其能够更好地应对草地生态系统时间与空间异质性,确保草地生态系统的良性循环,兼顾市场动态以及政府和牧民需求,实现高效的草地生产力输出。草地生态系统管理以全面实现草地生态系统服务功能为目的是中国草原管理发展的最优选择。     

Testing for Processor Market Power in the Markets for Cattle and Hogs in Canada

Deviations of livestock input prices from processor marginal value product are usually interpreted as an indication of the application of market power by the meat packing industry. However, market power depends on economic conditions that can influence the behavior of meat packers in the market for cattle and hogs. An industry-level translog profit function is applied to data on the Canadian finished cattle and hog markets and industry-wide oligopsony market power functions are estimated. The estimates suggest beef packers exercised a small but sustained amount of market power in the Canadian finished cattle market from 1978 to 1997. This is not the case in the market for hogs, which was competitive from 1960 to 1997. Application of market power in packers'purchases of farm animals decreased with increases in the utilization of domestic supply of slaughter animals and with increased levels of livestock exports. Livestock productivity increases appear to have significantly enhanced oligopsony power in packers'purchases of farm animals. The analysis suggests that beef processors may exert market power when cattle prices are relatively higher.     

A SIMULATION MODEL TO EVALUATE THE TIME-QUANTITY RESPONSE IN SPECIALIZED WHITE VEAL PRODUCTION

The objectives of this study were; to develop a model to simulate the growth of calves marketed as white veal; to use this model to evaluate alternative feeding rations; and to estimate optimal net returns to specialized white veal resources. A set of growth equations for veal calves developed by Van Es of Holland were used in a simulation model to estimate the growth of calves fed milk replacer. The model optimized the feeding system and indicated the optimum market weight strategy for specialized white veal producers. The results suggested that feeding system, mortality rates of calves and input-output prices ratios were all variables that influenced the optimum market weight and that producers should choose a flexible market weight strategy in preference to a single target market weight.
Le but de cette étude est: de mettre au point un model pour simuler la croissanee de veaux destinés à la boucherie; d'utiliser ce model afin d'évaluer diverses RATIONS et d'estimer le bénéfice net optimal provenant des ressources consacrées à cette production. Un ensemble d'équations estimant la croissanee de veaux de boucherie, établi par Van Es de Hollande, est utilisé pour estimer la croissanee de veaux nourris avec des substituts de lait. Se model établi le meilleur système d'alimentation ainsi que le meilleur poids de commercialisation pour les producteurs specialisés en viande de veaux. d'après ces résultats les taux de mortalité, les systèmes d'alimentation et le rapport du prix des inputs et outputs influencent le meilleur poids de commercialisation; et les producteurs devraient choisir une politique adaptative plutôt que de s'arrêter à un poids donné.     

Livestock Disease Indemnity Design When Moral Hazard Is Followed by Adverse Selection

Averting or limiting the outbreak of infectious disease in domestic livestock herds is an economic and potential human health issue that involves the government and individual livestock producers. Producers have private information about preventive biosecurity measures they adopt on their farms prior to outbreak ( ex ante moral hazard), and following outbreak they possess private information about whether or not their herd is infected ( ex post adverse selection). We investigate how indemnity payments can be designed to provide incentives to producers to invest in biosecurity and report infection to the government in the presence of asymmetric information. We compare the relative magnitude of the first- and second-best levels of biosecurity investment and indemnity payments to demonstrate the tradeoff between risk sharing and efficiency, and we discuss the implications for status quo U.S. policy.     

Willingness to Pay versus Expected Consumption Value in Vickrey Auctions for New Experience Goods

Over the past two decades, Vickrey auctions have been widely used to elicit willingness to pay for new food products. This article shows that in a multiperiod context, it can be optimal for consumers to bid higher than the expected consumption value for a new experience good to obtain information about how the new good fits into their preference set. The degree of uncertainty about the consumption value, the purchasing frequency, and expected future market prices affect both the expected value of the quality information and the subgame perfect bidding strategy in Vickrey auctions for new experience goods.     

畜禽养殖废弃物市场化困境及破解对策*——基于四川邛崃的实践

[目的]畜禽养殖废弃物已成为我国农村环境的首要污染源,但其本身是一项较好的农业资源,环境污染与资源浪费并存,政府和学者们皆提出"市场运作"思想,而当前畜禽养殖废弃物市场化利用水平低、市场化进程慢。通过选取我国畜禽养殖废弃物市场化作为研究对象,探究畜禽养殖废弃物市场化困境,结合四川邛崃的成功实践,提出推进畜禽养殖废弃物市场化的政策建议,实现资源化利用,减少农业面源污染。[方法]文章主要采用规范与实证相结合的方法,以市场经济学理论内容为研究框架,剖析当前畜禽养殖废弃物市场化困境,结合四川邛崃的实证分析提供经验借鉴,并提出政策建议。[结果]畜禽养殖废弃物市场运作面临较大困境:市场主体缺位;相关产品的市场价值低、供求脱节、价格扭曲、市场制度匮乏等,严重制约畜禽养殖废弃物的市场化利用。[结论]面对环境污染与资源浪费的矛盾,畜禽养殖废弃物的市场化是行之有效的途径,但目前其市场化还处于萌芽、摸索阶段,应加强政府引导,科学界定相关环境产权,明确责权利;培育多元化市场参与主体,建立与完善畜禽养殖废弃物市场体系;积极探索多种市场运作模式等,实现畜禽废弃物资源化利用,加快推进面源污染的防治。     

A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF US EXPORT WHEAT PRICING AND MARKET SHARES

The economics of a higher loan rate to support US wheat prices is analysed. Utilising optimal control theory, a dynamic wheat trade model is developed. The basic premise underlying the model is that the United States finds itself having transient monopoly power in the wheat market. An expression for the optimal pricing policy which maximises the present value of expected profits over the indefinite future is derived. Results from both the theoretical and empirical models demonstrate that the US wheat pricing strategy depends on its costs relative to competitors' costs, the discount rate and the competitors' response function. The main policy implication of the analysis is for the dominant wheat exporting country constantly to seek to lower costs relative to competitors and to maintain a price exceeding unit cost without encouraging competitors' expansion.     

Market and Other Factors Affecting Farm Specific Production Efficiency in Pig Production in Vietnam

ABSTRACT

In developing country production environment, farm production efficiency is often measured in terms of on-farm resources and producer characteristics. In this paper we postulate that input and output market related factors also influence farm production decisions hence its efficiency. Stochastic frontier production function was used to assess technical efficiency and its determinants including input and output market variables for a sample of 1962 pig farms in Vietnam with data collected in 1999. There are significant differences in production behavior and efficiency level between the North and the South, among farms producing different breeds, between mixed and specialized farms, between household and commercial farms, and among producers located in different agro-ecological regions. Access to better output market, land size, herd size, and education of household head significantly reduced inefficiency, while access to government supplied inputs, age of household head, female headed households and family supplied crude feeds significantly increased inefficiency in both the regions. The direction of influence on efficiency differs between the two regions for access to credit, proportion of output sold at market rather than at farm gate and family labor supply. Generally, market related factors had more consistent influence on production efficiency in the South of Vietnam where the experience of market economics is longer compared to the North. Policy actions on providing better extension, more timely access to better quality inputs through the private sector, making credit more easily accessible to smallholders and opportunity to sell output at better priced secondary markets are expected to increase productivity and reduce inefficiency.     

Time‐varying Hedge Ratios: A Principal‐agent Approach

We use the classic agency model to derive a time‐varying optimal hedge ratio for low‐frequency time‐series data: the type of data used by crop farmers when deciding about production and about their hedging strategy. Rooted in the classic agency framework, the proposed hedge ratio reflects the context of both the crop farmer's decision and the crop farmer's contractual relationships in the marketing channel. An empirical illustration of the Dutch ware potato sector and its futures market in Amsterdam over the period 1971–2003 reveals that the time‐varying optimal hedge ratio decreased from 0.34 in 1971 to 0.24 in 2003. The hedging effectiveness, according to this ratio, is 39%. These estimates conform better with farmers’ interest in using futures contracts for hedging purposes than the much higher estimates obtained when price risk minimisation is the only objective considered.     

中国畜产品区域规模化发展策略、问题与对策

我国优势畜产品生产的区域规模化优势得到显现,但存在着区域规模化养殖对环境的污染加重、疫病危害程度大、标准化水平不高以及面临生存危机和市场风险加大等问题,对此,要采取适度规模经营、合理布局、严格防疫、加强标准化养殖以及发展生态养殖等对策。