Who's talking about the future?: An analysis of the U.S. Presidents

What are people actually saying when they are talking and writing about the future? The paper rests on two premises; that the future is essentially a construct of human thought, and that one method of knowing the future is to carefully examine the language used when “the future” is being talked about. The 13 inaugural addresses of the U.S. presidents since 1933 are systematically examined for evidences of their author's future orientation. The paper provides both factual data about the future consciousness of our presidents over the past 50 years, and also demonstrates the use of linguistic analysis for forecasting the future.     

A product diffusion model incorporating repeat purchases

A logistic-based model for forecasting the rate of product diffusion given aggregate time series data was constructed. The model differs from earlier models based on fitting the logistic to aggregate data in that it includes a submodel to separate replacement demand from first-time sales. We fit the theoretical model to data and show that forecasts will be significantly more accurate using this model instead of the logistic curve.     

Forecasting the impact of office automation on clerical employment, 1985–2000

This article offers a forecast of the effects that advances in office automation technology will have on clerical employment in the banking and insurance industries for the period 1985–2000. A new forecasting approach, intended to account more directly for technological change, was developed for the study and is described. Clerical employment in both industries is estimated to peak about 1990 and decline rapidly during the following decade. Under the most conservative assumptions, absolute reductions in clerical employment of 22% in insurance and 10% in banking are expected by 2000. As a preliminary validation of the method, these results are compared to employment forecasts generated independently by executives in the two industries and to the results of other recent employment forecasts.     

Concepts of learning and experience in developing solar thermal technologies

This study presents a plausible picture of development of solar thermal technology, using the learning and experience curve concepts. The cost estimates for solar thermal energy technologies are typically made assuming a fixed production process, characterized by standard capacity factors, overhead, and labor costs. The learning curve is suggested as a generalization of the costs of potential solar energy system. The concept of experience is too ambiguous to be useful for cost estimation. There is no logical reason to believe that cost will decline purely as a function of cumulative production, and experience curves do not allow the identification of logical sources of cost reduction directly. The procedures for using learning and aggregated cost curves to estimate the costs of solar technologies are outlined. Because adequate production data often do not exist, production histories of analogous products/processes are analyzed, and learning and aggregated cost curves for these surrogates estimated. If the surrogate learning curves apply, they can be used to estimate solar thermal technology costs. The steps involved in generating these cost estimates are given. Second-generation glass-steel heliostat design concept developed by MDAC is described; a costing scenario for 25,000 units/year is detailed; surrogates for cost analysis are chosen; learning and aggregated cost curves are estimated; and the aggregate cost curve for the MDAC designs is estimated. The surrogate concept of cost estimation combines qualitative steps, which are highly subjective, with quantitative techniques, which require thorough knowledge and understanding to justify their use. As such, the results, interpretations, and inferences must be qualified by an understanding of the process by which they were developed. The method of surrogate learning curves had limitations in both the data acquisition and data analysis phases of activity. Improvements in the validity of cost data and in the task used for this type of study are necessary to enhance the reliability of unit cost predictions resulting from this technique.     

Cooperative research and the firm

This paper models cooperative R & D involving the university, the government, and the firm, using a linear programming format to determine the optimal cooperative structure or, “Who does what?” Both prime and dual are discussed. Sensitivity and simulation techniques are discussed as analytical tools to evaluate the effect of uncertainty and returns to scale on the optimal mix or structure of cooperative R & D. The value of the approach is both heuristic and analytical. Some problems and limitations of the approach are discussed briefly.     

Forecasting the impact of new technologies on the future job market

This paper examines recent occupational projections in order to determine how new technologies will affect future job growth in the United States. The first part of the paper reviews the methodologies used to derive occupational projections, focusing on how adjustments for technological change are incorporated into the forecasts. The second part of the paper reviews the most recent projections produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and compares them with projections produced by other organizations. The results reveal that neither high-technology industries nor high-technology occupations will supply many new jobs over the next decade. Instead, future job growth will favor service and clerical jobs that require little or no postsecondary schooling and that pay below-average wages.     

The use of discounted least squares in technological forecasting

The use of growth curves in technological forecasting usually employs an equal weighting of all data points in the time series. This paper considers the benefits of weighting recent information more heavily through the utilization of discounted least squares. The method is used to model the growth of the percentage of households with CATV; discounting gives better results for short-term forecasting.     

The future of economics: A Delphi Study

In an attempt to forecast the shape of economics in the year 2001, a Delphi study was undertaken, involving over 200 professional economists from 18 different countries. The end result was a list of 28 breakthroughs thought likely to occur in the next 20 years. The paper describes each breakthrough in detail, the process by which consensus and dissent were communicated, and the method used to select the panel of experts surveyed. Although the overall outcome of the study can be interpreted from several perspectives, one inescapable impression that emerges is that the liberal tradition in economics is latent but not dead, or equivalently, that the present conservative drift in the discipline is likely to be shortlived.     

Interdisciplinary problems in doing impact assessment : The case of Lake Shelbyville

A multidisciplinary team of biologists, economists, engineers, planners, and sociologists were assembled to do an ex-post facto analysis of a flood control reservoir ten years after initial operations. Within the context of a research university, the authors suggest ways to 1) improve project administration, 2) combat disciplinary chauvinism, 3) facilitate the understanding and exchange of data across disciplines, 4) reward the work of graduate students in a fair and equitable manner, and 5) assist the principal investigator in achieving the goal of an interdisciplinary study. The importance of project associates in the day-to-day operation of the study is reviewed in detail.This paper details the administrative problems of the University of Illinois' interdisciplinary effort to examine the “real” environmental impacts of the Lake Shelbyville reservoir 10 years after it had begun operation. Lake Shelbyville is a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir located in east-central Illinois. Land acquisition began in 1962 and the reservoir was in operation by 1971. While not implying that “apples and oranges” don't mix, problems do result when we try to bring together a group of disciplinary researchers. We write with the hope that the suggestions outlined here will keep environmental impact assessment research interdisciplinary. One of the reasons for the present “environmental fix” is the single discipline approach to environmental problems.A true interdisciplinary effort is necessary for a comprehensive assessment of the impacted physical and social environments, yet “interdisciplinary” can easily become a false label. If the principal investigator and researchers are not attentive to project administration on a day-to-day basis, the old saying about integrating findings “with a staple” can easily result. Rather than integrated assessment, the study report may resemble a series of miniature discipline based projects that read like the list of university departments.     

Technology forecast of space robots to the year 2000

Technology forecast of robots for performing assembly and maintenance tasks in space to the year 2000 is made on the basis of forecasting concepts of generation dynamics and precursors. Inputs were obtained from interviews with experts as well as literature review.     

Theory and practice of integrated impact assessment : The case of the western energy study

Four aspects of an applied technology assessment of western energy development are examined: the social and political context, the analytical approach, organization and management, and participation and utilization strategies. The value of technology assessments in addressing the uncertainties and value conflicts created by technological change depends in large part on organizational and management devices, particularly interdisciplinarity, external review, and participatory research strategies. While these approaches provide no guarantees, they help to compensate for inadequate theories and methodologies in providing integrated research findings.     

Cooperative research,government involvement,and timing of innovations

Government involvement in the innovation process, both direct and indirect, is introduced into a standard innovation time-cost trade-off model. Different forms of involvement are treated and each form entails cooperation between the firm and the government. The optimal development time (or project completion date) is determined and analyzed parametrically. This analysis produced five hypotheses concerning the effect of government involvement on the timing of innovations. Selected empirical applications (or tests) of the hypotheses are presented and then concluding remarks are made.     

Limits and possibilities of large-scale long-range societal models

It is argued that the appropriate criteria for evaluating large-scale long-range societal (or “world”) models differ significantly from the criteria that are appropriate for short-range econometric models or for small “toy” models. World models are designed to elucidate major societal problems arising from the interaction of many loosely connected factors—demographic, economic, technological, and environmental—that can be safely neglected in short-range extrapolative models. World models are also intended to explore the implications of long-range policy alternatives. Consequently, it is important that world models be phenomenological, rather than statistical, and they must “capture” the essence of some inherently nonlinear phenomena. This implies achieving qualitative realism without imposing an unwarranted assumption of causal determinism. Unfortunately, the mathematical characteristics of large nonlinear systems may essentially preclude meaningful long-run forecasts.     

A comparison of intracompany and intercompany LEAP forecasts

The Likelihood of Events Assessment Process (LEAP), a new method of forecasting, was described by Preble in 1982 [5]. This article carries forward that work by demonstrating with top level life insurance executives that LEAP forecasts are consistent. Using matched intracompany and intercompany LEAP panels, under identical test conditions, it was found that the two groups produced very similar socio-political forecast estimates and degrees of consensus. Both groups reported themselves to be satisfied with using the technique and about 85% of the participants said they would be willing to use LEAP again. Since strong similarities were demonstrated, the intracompany panel type is recommended to strategic planners based on its unique advantages.     

Change mechanisms in the diffusion of residential energy conservation practices: an empirical study

Four types of variables that affect the diffusion of home energy conservation measures are assessed. These variables are the information possessed by households, household attitudes, the economic and demographic characteristics of households, and the attributes of conservation measures. A causal model of behavior change is presented based on Fishbein's theory of reasoned action. The model is tested using panel data on 225 homeowners from Decatur, Illinois and two conservation practices: employing winter night-time thermostat setbacks and adding attic insulation. The results illustrate the importance of all four change mechanisms. Many nonadopters have erroneous information about the financial and other benefits of the two practices. The elderly and the poor are particularly ill-informed. Negative attitudes are closely related to discomfort (for night-time setback) and expense (for attic insulation). As expected, barriers and incentives differ across population subgroups and innovations.     

A multi-attribute diffusion model for forecasting the adoption of investment alternatives for consumers

This article develops a diffusion model that incorporates potential adopters' perceptions of the relevant innovation attributes in explaining the rate of adoption of an innovation. Data from 14 investment alternatives currently available to consumers are used to develop a multi-attribute diffusion model for forecasting the acceptance of a potential investment alternative. Limitations and further extensions of the proposed model are also discussed.     

Fundamental obstacles to the use of scientific information in public policy making

In contrast to the prevailing view that more effective use can be made of scientific information in public policy formation, several fundamental obstacles to the effective use of science are identified and described. It is argued that any effort to bring scientific information to bear on public policy must show how these obstacles have been removed.