HOUSEHOLDS’ BEHAVIOUR AND ENVIRONMENTAL EMISSIONS IN A REGIONAL ECONOMY

Households have significant demand-side potential to drive reductions in atmospheric emissions, including both direct and indirect emissions. Our analysis focuses on the behaviour of a regional economy (Aragon, Spain) and its impact on greenhouse gases (GHG) and sulphur dioxide (SO₂). Using a CGE model, we simulate scenarios and evaluate the environmental impact of adopting changes considered in the Aragonese Climate Change and Clean Energy Strategy. Specifically, we analyse the impact of electricity savings and the promotion of public transport (bus or train) versus private car use. The results indicate that 1 MWh of saving in electricity consumption by households could reduce emissions of GHG by 0.112 kt of equivalent CO₂ and 8.209 kg of SO₂ with a shift in demand preferences and 0.022 kt of equivalent CO₂ and 7.612 kg of SO₂ with an efficiency improvement. Moreover, household changes in demand preferences regarding private/public transport, also contribute to reduce emissions.     

Structural Change and Labor Requirement of the Japanese Economy

This paper extends the framework of input–output decomposition analysis into a model which decomposes changes in the labor requirement of an economy into effects of occupational substitution, changes in labor productivity and changes in material inputs. By application of this model to the Japanese experience it was found that the most important characteristic of the evolution of the Japanese labor force in the period 1975–85 was the replacement of blue collar workers by highly skilled professionals and technicians. Both technical change and changes in the structure of final demand fostered the increasing demand for professionals and technicians. As the mix of employment shifted towards high knowledge level occupations, Japan's labor productivity increased sharply.     

Developing an emission risk control model in coal-fired power plants for investigating CO2 reduction strategies for sustainable business development

The climatic risk consists of financial and environmental risks, predominantly evolutes from carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants. We develop a climatic risk control model to investigate the coexistence of renewable energy and the post-combustion carbon capture technology as CO₂ reduction strategies. Additionally, our proposed framework explicitly considers the acceptance of such strategies based on a balance of electricity supply according to demand. This paper adopts an additive fuzzy mixed-integer optimization approach to model uncertain parameters and determines the optimal solution focusing on business and the environment. Furthermore, we investigate the feasibility of such emission control strategies with scenario analysis that help to execute the country's emission reduction policies. The usefulness of our methodology is demonstrated using data from the coal-based power sector in the Eastern part of India. Overall, with the proposed model, we can achieve 30% reduction in emission release, which provides strategies to the decision-maker for investment towards sustainable development.     

Changes in China’s production-source CO2 emissions: insights from structural decomposition analysis and linkage analysis

This paper presents an input–output based methodology – structural decomposition analysis (SDA) plus linkage analysis, for identifying the key factors and sectors that affected production-source CO₂ emissions in China. The proposed methodology extends the SDA to account for the import substitution effect within an open economy such as China and incorporates the emission linkage by which the effect of the input mix on CO₂ emissions can be understood in depth. Empirical results indicate that, between 2005 and 2010, improving emission intensity and input intensity had helped to reduce CO₂ emissions; meanwhile, capital investment explained the majority of the increases in CO₂ emissions brought about by final demand, and import substitution was also observed to increase CO₂ emissions. Moreover, nine key emission sectors have been identified, and in this regard, domestic inputs became more CO₂-intensive in 2010 than it was in 2005.     

India's Energy Consumption Changes during 1973/74 to 1991/92

The global energy crisis in the 1970s and early 1980s had adverse economic impacts in all oil-importing countries, including India. The objective of the present paper is to analyze energy consumption changes that have taken place in the Indian economy during 1973174 to 1983184 and 1983184 to 1991192, and the factors responsible for these changes. We develop a structural decomposition analysis in which the energy consumption changes are the result of the following six different factors: technical changes; changes in the final demand structure; changes in the interaction term of technical changes and final demand structure; changes in energy exports; changes in energy imports; changes in energy change in stock. Then, we separate the technical changes and final demand structure again, which identifies explicitly the effects of energy consumption.     

Neutral carbon tax and environmental targets in Brazil

We evaluate the effects of a carbon tax in the Brazilian economy using an input–output framework. First, we consider the impacts of a carbon tax of US$ 10 and US$ 50/metric ton of CO₂ equivalent. As usual, the adoption of the carbon tax generates adverse effects on GDP, wages and jobs in the short term, but reduces emissions and generates new government revenues, especially in the case of the greater tax. Second, we consider a broader tax system reform. In this reform, we replace distortionary taxes by a tax on value added. To compensate for the loss of government revenue, we assume a carbon tax with equivalent revenue. We find that the net effect is a GDP increase of 0.47%, the creation of 533 thousand jobs and reduction of 1.6 million tons of CO₂ emissions. Both scenarios exempt exports and levy imports to correct adverse effects on the country’s competitiveness.     

Returns to Scale and the Economic Impact of Migration

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the impact of international migration on a regional economy. It is based on the assumption that immigration causes the population of the region to grow, thereby increasing the cost of living for existing residents. In one version of the model, the government responds by increasing wages in the public sector so as to help offset the higher cost of living. The private sector follows suit. In another version of the model, wages are determined by supply and demand. The paper investigates what happens to living standards, unemployment and the location of the native population under different assumptions about returns to scale.     

Introducing the supply side into the LBS Model

This Briefing Paper describes a new version of the London Business School model, which incorporates our most recent research on the supply side. The changes reflect the desire to improve the specification of the supply-side of the model, and to capture the effects of taxes on the incentives to save, invest and to work, while still retaining the basic features of the income-expenditure framework. The main features of the new model are: - Gross domestic product is determined as the sum of the outputs of five sectors. Previously GDP was determined by the demand side as the sum of the expenditure components. - Domestic demand for the output of the private sector depends on domestic absorption and on the price of this output relative to import prices. Overseas demand for exports depends on world economic activity and on the price of exports relative to the world price of exports. - Supply depends on the capital stock, real unit labour costs and real raw material prices. In the short run, input prices are allowed to affect the mix between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. In the long run, however, the mix depends only on the price of exports relative to the price of domestically supplied goods (i.e., relative profitability). - In the short run, disequilibrium in the goods market is reflected in adjustments to prices, inventories and the external balance. - Since gross domestic product is determined by summing the output of each sector, output decisions are reconciled with expenditure decisions by making imports the difference between final expenditure and aggregate supply. - In the long run, increases in government expenditure crowd out private expenditure, but the effect takes several years to come through. - A cut in corporation taxes which is not financed by higher taxes elsewhere boosts the supply side by raising investment and the capital stock, but not by enough to raise revenues sufficiently to pay for the tax cut. Private sector saving increases but not by enough to fund higher public sector borrowing, so the current account goes into deficit. - In the short run, both supply and demand factors influence economic activity; in the long run, the path of the economy depends only on population growth, capital accumulation and technical progress.     

Trade Liberalization and Pollution: An Input–Output Study of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Mexico

This paper examines the environmental effects associated with Mexico's participation in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The objective is to provide quantitative estimates of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from changes in the level and structure of production and consumption activity in Mexico following a liberalization of trade. The quantitative analysis was performed using input–output methods with fuel use modifications to account for CO₂ emissions before and after NAFTA's implementation. As a result of NAFTA, CO₂ emissions are expected to increase from the anticipated increase in the size of the Mexican economy. While total emissions increase as a result of tariff elimination, there is also a shift in the structure of production and final consumption away from those sectors that are the most C02 intensive.     

Identifying critical supply chain paths and key sectors for mitigating primary carbonaceous PM2.5 mortality in Asia

Total mortality attributable to PM_2.5 is highest in the Asian domain, estimated as 2.3 million deaths annually. We apply consumption-based accounting to identify the key sectors responsible for primary carbonaceous PM_2.5 mortality. The study combines an input–output model with an atmospheric transport model and fully links consumer demand to final pollutant fate and health impact. We find the following: (1) considering atmospheric transport changes the distribution of demand-induced impact as compared to conventional emissions footprinting, (2) the supply chain paths with the greatest impact on PM_2.5-induced human health problems in the region are centered around agricultural technologies in China, and (3) the transportation sector of China plays a major role in the supply chain paths that generate relatively large impacts on human health. We conclude that Japan is responsible for PM_2.5 mortality in Asia and should take leadership in changing key high-priority technologies and critical supply chain paths into greener ones.     

REAL-FINANCIAL LINKAGES IN THE CANADIAN ECONOMY: AN INPUT–OUTPUT APPROACH

The recent financial crisis highlighted the importance of better understanding the interaction between macroeconomic and financial conditions. In this paper, we provide a financial social accounting matrix for the Canadian economy and use it to assess the strength of real-financial linkages by calculating and comparing multipliers with and without endogenous financial flows. It is found that taking into account financial flows increases the impact of a final demand shock on output by 4–11%. Moreover, between 2008 and 2009H1, the investment decisions of financial institutions together with the fact that non-financial institutions were unwilling or unable to increase their financial liabilities led to estimated declines in all GDP multipliers. The impact of a final demand shock on GDP declined 3–5%, while the impact of an increase in the availability of investment funds fell 30% and 55% for financial and non-financial corporations, respectively.? ^?The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors. No responsibility for them should be attributed to Statistics Canada. View all notes     

Customers satisfaction in pediatric inpatient services: A multiple criteria satisfaction analysis

ObjectiveTo assess customer satisfaction determinants in a public pediatric inpatient service and propose some strategies to enhance the consumer and customer experience.MethodsWe applied a Multiple Criteria Customer Satisfaction Analysis to estimate the value functions associated with each satisfaction (sub)criterion and determine the corresponding weights. We characterized satisfaction criteria (according to the Kano's model), estimated the customers' demanding nature and the potential improvements, and proposed strategic priorities and opportunities to enhance customer satisfaction.Main findingsStrategies for satisfaction enhancement do not depend solely on the criteria with the lowest satisfaction levels and the estimated weights, each criterion's nature, the customers' demanding nature, and the technical margin for improvements.ConclusionsAreas deserving attention include clinical staff's communication skills, the non-clinical professionals' efficiency, availability, and kindness; food quality; visits' scheduling and quantity; and facilities' comfort.     

Forecasting the UK economy with a medium-scale Bayesian VAR

We estimate a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) for the UK economy and assess its performance in forecasting GDP growth and CPI inflation in real time relative to forecasts from COMPASS, the Bank of England’s DSGE model, and other benchmarks. We find that the BVAR outperformed COMPASS when forecasting both GDP and its expenditure components. In contrast, their performances when forecasting CPI were similar. We also find that the BVAR density forecasts outperformed those of COMPASS, despite under-predicting inflation at most forecast horizons. Both models over-predicted GDP growth at all forecast horizons, but the issue was less pronounced in the BVAR. The BVAR’s point and density forecast performances are also comparable to those of a Bank of England in-house statistical suite for both GDP and CPI inflation, as well as to the official Inflation Report projections. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of similar studies for other advanced economies.     

Input–Output Anatomy of China's Energy Use Changes in the 1980s

China significantly reduced the energy intensity of its economy in the 1980s. In this paper, we conduct a structural decomposition analysis to explain China's energy use changes between 1981 and 1987—the years for which we have input–output tables. We find that China's energy saving during this period came about primarily by changes in how to produce (production technology changes) rather than changes in what to consume (final demand shifts). The driving force of the energy intensity decline was energy efficiency improvements, which were multiplied across the entire economy through inter-industry input–output linkages.     

A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL PASSENGER DEMAND FOR THE STATE RAILWAY OF THAILAND

This paper presents a time series regression model to estimate annual passenger demand for the State Railway of Thailand (SRT). The model was developed for a time period of 15 years (1974–1988), incorporating such variables as the country's gross domestic product (GDP), SRT passenger fares, competing intercity bus fares, and a dummy variable of the Fifth National Five Year Plan advocating a railway-favored modal shift policy. This simple but useful model analysis estimated the demand elasticities as: 0.907 with respect to real GDP; -0.970 with respect to real SRT fare; and 0.808 with respect to real bus fare. Remarkable manufacturing-oriented economic development of Thailand in recent years played an important part in recent SRT demand increases. As the relatively high own and cross fare elasticity estimates imply, the SRT is concerned about demand loss to competing intercity bus services, and has thus been keeping fare levels low. The model analysis also estimated a demand gain of 12.3% due to the modal shift policy during the Fifth Plan period, suggesting effectiveness of the policy.     

Application of collective knowledge diffusion in a social network environment

ABSTRACT

We present a group dynamics model that shows knowledge integration as a process occurring over time. As each individual in the group contact others, his own knowledge changes, and over time the collective knowledge is obtained. This allows modeling knowledge diffusion in a social network and while the models presented in this paper are not competitive in that area, they approach the problem from previously unconsidered direction. We test the behavior of the model in a multi-agent simulation and we test a simple advertisement campaign in a social network. We provide discussion of elements needed for making model more competitive.     

Effects of Schumpeterian and Kirznerian entrepreneurship on economic growth: panel data evidence

Abstract

The relevant literature recognises Schumpeterian and Kirznerian entrepreneurship as mechanisms that can impact economic growth. This article seeks to explore the effects of these two types of entrepreneurship on economic growth across the three GEM (Global Entrepreneurship Monitor) economic ecosystems (factor-driven economy, efficiency-driven economy, innovation-driven economy). Using different databases, we applied unbalanced panel data for 43 countries (2009–2013). By estimating the econometric models, we were able to calculate the effects of these two types of entrepreneurship on economic growth in the three different types of economy. In terms of the overall model for GEM economies, neither Schumpeterian nor Kirznerian entrepreneurship return any statistically significant effects on the Global Competitiveness Index or on GDP growth. However, the Total Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity variable generates a positive effect on the Global Competitiveness Index. The results presented in this paper provide insights into entrepreneurship and the GEM entrepreneurial economic ecosystems.     

财政购买性支出激励与经济持续增长——兼论确立服务型政府的合理性

本文建立了政府支出创新激励经济增长的理论模型,模型表明政府支出对经济增长的效应取决于预算、投资生产率和支出结构.借助VAR实证模型,中国的经验实证分析表明:公共花费是公共投资的基础,也是GDP增长的主要影响变量;公共投资不一定能促进GDP增长.为此,我们提出政策建议:必须转变政府职能,由投资型政府变为服务型政府,以促进经济持续增长.     

A Daunting Task in Asia

Abstract

This article deals with the question of how to transform the public sector in Asia towards transparency and accountability. What are the main challenges and constraints in promoting transparency and accountability? What kind of strategies can we suggest to enhance and sustain transparency and accountability? It will start with the introduction, including environmental changes in public affairs, and a brief overview of transparency and accountability. Then it will look at what major challenges and constraints there are in enhancing transparency and accountability. This will be followed by a discussion of key strategies for the transformation and sustainability of transparency and accountability for further development in the Asian public sector.     

Social welfare,corruption and credibility

Abstract

Economic development requires that investments by entrepreneurs are not subject to expropriation by government. Unfortunately, public agencies often serve as the instruments by which political elites engage in corruption and extracting rents from the economy. The question is how to design institutions that credibly commit to a stable system of guarantees of property rights and contract enforcement.

Principal agent theory and the new public management favor greater accountability of public managers to elected officials or eliminating public agencies through privatization. We argue for institutional designs that provide a degree of public agency autonomy. We show that public agency autonomy is a by-product of the competition between elites in democracies with multiple veto players. We show that transparency, professionalism, and legality help ensure that public managers do not engage in rent-extraction. The institutional design problem is how to induce public managers to serve the public interest without being fully responsive to elected political officials.