Chinese Saving Rates from 1953 to 2012: Trends,Compositions and Prospects

This study conducts a long‐run analysis on the trends and components of Chinese saving rates from 1953 to 2012. We identify two structural changes in aggregate saving rates around 1978 and 2001, and examine them through a decomposition analysis of the income distribution and sector‐specific saving rates. The following key findings are obtained. First, the major trends and compositions of Chinese saving rates changed markedly over the period considered, which explains the changes of aggregate saving rates with the dramatic economic transition from a planned economy to a market‐oriented economy. Second, we investigate the surge in aggregate saving rates from 2001 to 2012 based on a series of institutional factors, such as the evolving labour market, domestic economic policy adjustments and changes in external economic conditions caused by China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 and the 2008 global financial crisis. Finally, we present the future prospects for the high aggregate saving rates in China based on several evolving economic, demographic and policy trends. We argue that Chinese saving rates have peaked in recent years and that a declining trend is expected, which will contribute to the economic rebalancing of the country.     

Constructing the job-finding rate and separation rate of Hong Kong labour market

This paper constructs two essential time series of the aggregate labour market in Hong Kong: the job-finding rate and the separation rate. The average job-finding rate per month is 27.54% while the average separation rate per month is 1.29%. These numbers are similar to those for Nordic and Anglo-Saxon countries. Variance decomposition shows that the separation rate contributes to more than half the variation of the unemployment rate.     

How well are women doing? Female non-employment across UK regions

Discussions of the UK's recent labour market performance commonly mention the contrasting trends in the unemployment rate (down), the employment rate (up) and the inactivity rate (flat). These same commentaries also notice that the ‘flatness’ of the overall inactivity rate masks contrasting trends by sex, with male rates (slowly rising) and female rates (slowly falling) and then proceed to discuss male inactivity in some detail before concluding. Bypassing the composition of female inactivity, these commentaries fail to notice that the male and the female proportions of the population not working by reason of sickness or disability are quite similar. Equally they have rarely noticed that male and female non-employment rates display a very similar regional hierarchy with female rates in the ‘North’ as much as 50% higher than those in the ‘South’, and that there is an even steeper North–South gradient in some of the components of non-employment. For example, sickness and disability rates for females in the North are up to 10% of the working age population, while in the South rates are typically less than half that size.     

Labour mobility during transitionEvidence from Georgia1

This article deals with labour mobility in Georgia during economic transition. We use quarterly 1998–99 panel data to examine mobility across six labour market statuses (inactivity, unemployment, formal wage employment, informal wage employment, self‐employment and farming). Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis of labour market segmentation. Formal employment is preferred to informal employment. Unemployment is largely a queuing device for individuals with higher education waiting for formal jobs. Some self‐employment is subsistence activities and consistent with a segmented labour market, while other is high risk and potentially high return activities. Age, gender and education are significant determinants of labour mobility. Finally, informal employment serves as a buffer in times of recession – with farming and informal wage employment absorbing labour shed by other statuses during the Russian financial crisis.     

Evidence of the added-worker and discouraged-worker effects in Australia

Gross flow data for workers moving between the states of employment, unemployment and non-participation in Australia can be used to analyse the likelihood of workers transitioning between the three states in different phases of the business cycle. We use correlation analysis and a SVAR model to determine the cyclicality of state transition rates and use these results to characterise labour force inflows and outflows as being consistent in aggregate with either the discouraged-worker effect (DWE) or the added-worker effect (AWE). We find evidence that the AWE is dominant in transitions in both directions between unemployment and non-participation which contributes to a rise in unemployment during economic contractions. We also find that the DWE is dominant in transitions from non-participation to employment and that this drives the overall result that non-participation rises during a contraction. This means that the overall participation rate is procyclical. It is important to understand the cyclical influences on labour force participation and its interaction with unemployment before framing policy responses which seek to reduce labour market slack.     

Of Yeast and Mushrooms: Patterns of Industry-Level Productivity Growth

Abstract. In this paper we analyse labour productivity growth in the United States, four European countries (France, Germany, the Netherlands and United Kingdom), Australia and Canada between 1987 and 2003 from an industry perspective. Rather than analysing broad industry groups, we compare the pattern of growth in all industries through Harberger diagrams. We introduce new summary measures, which indicate the pervasiveness of growth patterns. These indicators show that investment in both information and communication technology (ICT) and non-ICT capital is fairly balanced or 'yeasty', driven by overall macro-economic conditions. However, growth of total factor productivity (TFP) is much more localized or 'mushroom-like'. In particular we find a clear distinction between countries in continental Europe, in which TFP is decelerating after 1995 and becoming more localized, and Anglo-Saxon countries in which TFP growth is accelerating and becoming more broad-based, especially after 2000. The increased breadth of Anglo-Saxon TFP growth is consistent with delayed effects of intangible investments that are complementary to ICT investments.     

Unemployment and interindustry labour mobility in Canada in the 1980s

The determinants of interindustry mobility of labour, and its relationship to the unemployment rate is examined, using micro-data on Canadian workers from 1980/81, 1982/83 and 1985/86. It contrasts the implications of the ‘dynamic reallocation’ model (Lilien, 1982) in which rising aggregate unemployment is due to in creased dispersion in the net hiring rates of firms (implying positive covariance of interindustry mobility and unemployment rates) with the older ‘Keynesian’ perspective that high unemployment ‘chills’ labour market mobility, implying a neative relationship. Qualified support is obtained for the ‘chilling’ model, as well as standard results on the role of job tenure, hours worked, etc. The general moral is the cyclical sensitivity of labour market behaviour, i.e. individuals appear to react to the aggregate unemployment rate.     

European women: why do(n’t) they work?1

To increase labour market participation is a major challenge currently faced by the EU, and attracting women into the labour force appears as a promising avenue to do so. Therefore, a clear understanding of what the factors influencing the evolution of female participation rates are in Europe is essential for a successful design of policy measures aiming at increasing participation rates. This article provides empirical evidence on the role that institutions have played in determining participation rates of women in the European labour markets. Our findings discard any doubt on the influence of institutions on women's participation in Europe. The strictness of labour market institutions negatively affects female participation rates. We also find that institutional features aimed at reconciling motherhood with professional life such as maternity leave schemes and part-time work favour participation rates of prime-age women. Additionally, fertility rates and education enrolment have been relevant for the evolution of participation rates during the sample period considered for prime-age and young females, respectively, while cohort effects drive the developments of older females.     

AGGREGATE EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS AND (PARTIAL) LABOUR MARKET REFORMS

European labour markets have undergone several important innovations over the last three decades. Most countries have reformed their labour markets since the mid‐1990s, with the liberalization of fixed‐term contracts and temporary work agencies being the common elements to such reforms. This paper investigates the existence of a change in the dynamic behaviour of the aggregate employment for major European Union countries – France, Germany, Italy and Spain. According to our results, partial labour market reforms have made the response of the aggregate employment to output shocks larger and quite comparable to that found for the UK – the most flexible labour market in Europe since the Thatcher reforms.     

The International Financial Architecture and the Limits to Neoliberal Hegemony

During the 1990s in many western countries employment decreased or at least stagnated and unemployment increased. One of the few countries where the reverse happened is the Netherlands. Harmonious relations and cooperation between capital and labour, particularly the exchange of wage moderation for jobs, are seen as the secret of its success and often viewed as a model in other European countries. One of the reasons for this is that the Dutch have not paid the price of an Anglo-Saxon poverty rate for employment growth. Despite some cuts, their comprehensive welfare system still has relatively high replacement rates. We will, however, see that the Dutch development is not as model-like as it superficially appears. Labour market participation is not particularly high and, consequently, non-employment—including a very large number of people on disability, early pension or social assistance schemes—is high. In fact, at least up to 1996/97, it had changed very little since the mid 1980s. Therefore, it is only in the very recent past that the rise of employment has been accompanied by a decline in non-employment.     

Shocked by therapy? Unemployment in the first years of the socio-economic transition in Poland and its long-term consequences

We examine the long-term implications of unemployment for material conditions and well-being using the Polish sample from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Retrospective data from the SHARELIFE survey are used to reconstruct labour market experiences across the threshold of the socio-economic transformation from a centrally planned to a free market economy in Poland. These individual experiences are matched with outcomes observed in the survey about 20 years later to examine their correlation with unemployment at the time of the transition. We find that becoming unemployed in the early 1990s correlates significantly with income, assets and a number of measures of well-being recorded in 2007 and 2012. Using plant closures to reflect exogenous changes to labour market status at the time of the transition, we are able to confirm the causal effect of unemployment on income and house ownership 20 years later, but find no evidence for a long-term causal relationship between unemployment and such measures of well-being as life satisfaction, depression and subjective assessment of material conditions.     

The beneficial effects of generous unemployment benefits on profits and employment

Theories of the labor market generally predict that high unemployment benefits put upward pressure on wages, thus diminishing the profitability of employing labor and exacerbating unemployment. It remains to be explained why firms agree to contribute to generous schemes (replacement rates for general schemes in Europe and US are in the range 50–85%) that they are often willing to supplement (with sector- or firm-specific schemes that may involve even 100% replacement and long benefit duration). An answer can be found by including in the shirking–efficiency wage model, the hypotheses that workers are risk-averse and that those discharged for misconduct are not eligible to benefits. It is then optimal for risk-neutral firms (and for employment) to introduce an insurance scheme with full income coverage and with a duration limited only by the workers' participation constraint (there is no trade-off between level and duration of benefits). The more difficult it is to detect and fire shirkers, the higher is the rent workers enjoy above the competitive wage and the longer is the benefit duration consistent with the participation constraint. This result can be interpreted as a complementarity between the strictness of employment protection legislation (EPL) and the duration of benefits, which seems to conform with broad patterns observed in primary vs. secondary employment and in continental Europe vs. Anglo-Saxon countries.     

Youth idleness in Eastern Europe and Central Asia before and after the 2009 crisis

ABSTRACT

Youth idleness is a significant problem in many countries, including in Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) where it has rarely been studied. Labour market and education policies need to be based on a strong knowledge base on the Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET) population. This paper uses micro-level data from the early 2000s through 2011 to fill knowledge gaps. NEET rates for different age intervals, gender and educational attainment are investigated for the ECA region and countries within. We find that the NEET rate in ECA was declining prior to the 2009 crisis and increased afterwards, with a more pronounced impact on males. Our findings reveal considerable heterogeneity across countries likely due to varying demographics, labour market conditions and education policies. Policies on idle youths in this region need to be tailored to varying national situations. This paper also suggests pathways for future research.

Abbreviations: NEET: Not in Employment, Education or Training; ECA: Eastern Europe and Central Asia     

Mind the Gap! International Comparisons of Productivity in Services and Goods Production

Abstract. In this paper, we make a comparison of industry output, inputs and productivity growth and levels between seven advanced economies (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States). Our industry-level growth accounts make use of input data on labour quantity (hours) and composition (schooling levels), and distinguish between six different types of capital assets (including three information and communication technology (ICT) assets). The comparisons of levels rely on industry-specific purchasing power parities (PPPs) for output and inputs, within a consistent input–output framework for the year 1997. Our results show that differences in productivity growth and levels can be mainly traced to market services, not to goods-producing industries. Part of the strong productivity growth in market services in Anglo-Saxon countries, such as in Australia and Canada, may be related to relatively low productivity levels compared with the United States. In contrast, services productivity levels in continental European countries were on par with the United States in 1997, but growth in Europe was much weaker since then. In terms of factor input use, the United States is very different from all other countries, mostly because of the more intensive use of ICT capital in the United States.     

Value added,wages and labour market flows at the establishment level

In this article, we analyse the connection between value added, wages and labour market flows at the establishment level. We develop a simple model to illustrate the expected comovement of these variables. For the empirical analysis, we link the new German Administrative Wage and Labor Market Flow Panel data set to the IAB Establishment Panel. We show that establishments’ hires rates have a positive and separations rates a negative comovement with establishment-specific value added, whereby hires react by more than separations. In addition, we provide evidence that establishments’ partial equilibrium reaction is an important driver for aggregate labour market dynamics.     

A Bayesian evaluation of an efficiency-wage model with indeterminacy

ABSTRACT

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of a general equilibrium economy with non-Walrasian labour markets. Indeterminacy in the economy does not require production externalities or increasing returns but it rests on replacing the labour supply curve by a no-shirking condition on the efficiency-wage labour markets. The model is estimated on U.S. data via full information Bayesian methods. The shirking model is capable of matching several stylized facts of the aggregate economy and the labour market. Data favour a version of the artificial economy that is characterized by determinacy.     

Prices,Productivity and Wage Bargaining in Open Economies*

According to the standard union bargaining model, unemployment benefits should have big effects on wages, but product‐market prices and productivity should play no role in the wage bargain. We formulate an alternative strategic bargaining model, where labour and product‐market conditions together determine wages. A wage equation is derived and estimated on aggregate data for four Nordic countries. Wages are found to depend not only on unemployment and the replacement ratio, but also on productivity, international prices and exchange rates. There is evidence of considerable nominal wage rigidity. Exchange rate changes have large and persistent effects on competitiveness.     

Celtic Phoenix or Leprechaun Economics? The Politics of an FDI-led Growth Model in Europe

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we argue that Ireland’s post-crisis economic recovery in Europe was driven by foreign direct investment (FDI) from Silicon Valley, and while this growth model was made possible by Ireland’s low-corporate tax rates, it was also a result of these firms using Ireland to directly access the European labour market. We evidence this contention via sectoral and geographic analyses while simultaneously showing that Irish fiscal policies have not redistributed gains from the recovery to the broader population. As a result, the economic recovery has been most actively felt by those in the FDI sectors, including workers from the EU and beyond. Building on theories from the study of comparative capitalism, we suggest that this experience indicates that Ireland’s FDI-led growth model has created clear winners and losers, with significant distributional implications. The FDI growth regime been made possible by inward migration and European integration, but given the unequal distribution of the economic benefits that this generates, it is unlikely to be politically, or electorally, sustainable.     

What ever happened to Germany? Is the decline of the former european key currency country caused by structural sclerosis or by macroeconomic mismanagement?

This paper challenges the institutional sclerosis view of the German crisis according to which rigid labour markets and generous welfare state institutions have driven Germany into its position as ‘Europe's sick man’. In general, the view is not convincing, because the underlying hypotheses about the effects of labour market regulation and welfare state institutions on employment and growth cannot unambiguously be derived from modern labour market theory and are at least partially at odds with accepted empirical findings. In particular, the explanation is unconvincing, because in international comparison Germany's labour market and welfare state institutions are simply not as sclerotic as often supposed. In most of the aggregate indicators for structural rigidities Germany is not worse than the average OECD or EU country. Moreover, there is a macroeconomic explanation focusing on the combined effects of restrictive and pro‐cyclical monetary, fiscal and wage policies in Germany that is broadly consistent with modern macroeconomic theory and is supported by empirical data.     

HOW WELL HAS THE NEW DEAL FOR YOUNG PEOPLE WORKED IN THE UK REGIONS?

The UK New Deal for Young People (NDYP) is a mandatory active labour market programme aimed at helping unemployed young people into jobs. This paper examines how the programme affected hazard rates for unemployment exits across the UK regions in its first few years. The regional focus is motivated by the belief that differences between regional labour markets, between claimants, and differences in implementation may have led to differences in programme outcomes. The paper shows that NDYP increased outflows from unemployment in all regions but that its impact was larger in some regions than in others. The paper also shows differential NDYP impacts across the regions on destination-specific hazard rates from unemployment to employment, to education/training, to inactivity and to 'other'. Possible explanations for these results are then discussed.