Identifying the factors behind fatal and non-fatal road crashes: a case study of Lahore,Pakistan

ABSTRACT

The study identifies the factors behind fatal and non-fatal road crashes in Lahore, Pakistan, by investigating 461 reported cases to Traffic Police Lahore that occurred during January–November 2014. Road crashes are categorized into fatal and non-fatal crashes and, because of the binary nature of the dependent variable, logistic regression is used to identify the factors behind these crashes. As a follow-up, discriminant analysis is employed to classify the factors related to fatal and non-fatal crashes. The logistic regression results reveal that females are at higher risk of fatalities than male drivers. Among vehicle types, rickshaws and cars are more involved in fatal accidents because both are growing at large on roads. Long trucks and trailers are also involved in fatal accidents, mainly because of their huge size and drivers’ risky driving behaviours. It is also noted that risk of fatalities is higher in case where two vehicles bumped each other. Speeding and overloading are the common behaviours resulting in fatal crashes. Better urban transport systems and strict compliance with traffic rules and regulations may improve road safety in Pakistan.     

Exploring the factors influencing pedestrian-vehicle crash severity in Dhaka,Bangladesh

Abstract

Although the rate of road crashes and their severity is relatively higher in developing countries, there is still a lack of research on pedestrian-vehicle crash severity in these contexts, particularly in Bangladesh. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the contributing environmental, road, and vehicular factors that influenced pedestrian—single-vehicle crash severity in Dhaka, a megacity and the capital of Bangladesh. A binary logistic regression model was developed in this study by analyzing a data set of pedestrian—single-vehicle crashes involving casualties in Dhaka from 2010 to 2015. The model identified seven significant factors influencing pedestrian-vehicle crash severity. Significant factors increasing the likelihood of fatal crashes included crashes during adverse weather, dawn/dusk period, night period (where street light was absent), off-peak period, crashes where road divider was unavailable, road geometry was straight and flat, and crashes those were occurred by heavier vehicles. Besides, crashes at three-legged intersections were less likely to be fatal. Both similarities and differences were found among the significant factors influencing pedestrian-vehicle crash severity in Dhaka from the findings of the developed countries. The findings of this study would help transport engineers and planners to design safer roadways for both pedestrians and vehicles.     

Investigation of pedestrian crashes using multiple correspondence analysis in India

Abstract

Pedestrian safety is of growing concern with an increasing number of traffic accidents, especially in developing economies like India. In 2017, there were 20,457 pedestrian fatalities in India. Pedestrian crashes have also become a key concern in the state of Tamilnadu, India, due to the high percentage of deaths. If the available datasets are large and complex, identifying key factors is a challenging task. In this study, Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA), an exploratory data analysis technique was used to explore the roadway, traffic, crash, and pedestrian-related variables influencing pedestrian crashes. This study used the data from Government of Tamilnadu Road Accident Traffic Management System (RADMS) database, to analyse accident data of nine years (2009–2017) related to pedestrian crashes. The results of the study show that crashes occurring on the express highways on a multilane road are often associated with hit-and-run behaviour among drivers. Factors such as lighting conditions, location, pedestrian behaviour, crossings, and physical separation are also significantly contributing to pedestrian crashes. The key advantage of MCA is that it identifies a possible association between various contributing factors. The findings from this study will be useful for state transport authorities to improve countermeasures for mitigating pedestrian crashes and fatalities.     

Road traffic crashes at night-time: characteristics and risk factors

Abstract

The study was to examine the nature and risk factors associated with road traffic crashes at night in Ghana and identify potential measures to control them. Crash and injury data for the period 2013-2017 were analyzed. The fatality index and fatal crash ratio measures were employed to assess the severity of injuries among traffic participants. Statistical analysis was carried out for the variables using contingency tables and the chi-square (χ²) tests to assess statistical significance. Generally, night-time traffic crashes resulted in severer injury outcomes than crashes in the hours of daylight (χ²(2)=292.7, p?<?0.001). The relative risk of death in a night traffic crash was 1.3 times that during the daytime. The risk of death was highest among pedestrians (44%) and motorcyclist (18%) compared to bus/mini-bus occupants (16%) and car occupants (11%) and the observed percentage differences were significant (χ²(14)=2303.2, p?<?0.001). Most of the collisions (67%) occurred at the early hours of the night, between 18:00 and 22:00?hours. Poor night visibility coupled with poor visual guidance on roads are the key contributory risk factors associated with night travels. Policies must be geared towards provision of functioning street lights in built-up areas, road line markings, delineators and signage for the highways and arterial roads.     

Trends in road traffic crashes and associated injury and fatality in the People’s Republic of China, 1951–1999

The burden of road traffic injuries in the People’s Republic of China is increasing as evidenced by trends since 1951. Data from the National Statistical Office, Ministry of Communications and the Traffic Administration Bureau were analyzed. Absolute numbers of crashes, fatalities, and injuries, as well as fatalities per 100,000 population and motorization (number of vehicles per 1000 population) were used as indices to measure trends. Regional variations in trends and the characteristics of people injured or killed were also analyzed. Road traffic crashes increased 68- fold, from around 6000 in 1951 to 413,000 in 1999. Excessive speed was the main reported cause of the crashes. The injuries increased 56-fold – from around 5000 to 286,000 – and fatalities 97-fold – from 852 to around 84,000 – over the same period. The crash, fatality and injury rates also increased after 1985, due to increased motorization spurred by rapid economic growth. The number of four-wheel motor vehicles increased from 60,000 in 1951 to just under a million four-wheel motor vehicles in 1975 and to 10 million in 1987. The number of four-wheel motor vehicles then rose to 50 million in 1999, with an additional 30 million motorcycles. The increase in motorization and fatalities affected all the provinces. Road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death for populations up to the age of 45 years and the leading cause of working-life years lost in China.     

Fatal motorcycle crashes: a growing public health problem in Cambodia

This study examines the risk characteristics of fatal motorcycle crashes in Cambodia over a 5-year period (2007–2011). Secondary data analyses were conducted using the Cambodia Road Crash and Victim Information System, the only comprehensive and integrated road crash surveillance system in the country. Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Handicap International found that (1) males are dying in motorcycle crashes roughly seven times more frequently than females; (2) motorcyclist fatalities increased by about 30% from 2007 to 2011; (3) the motorcyclist death rates per 100,000 population increased from 7.4 to 8.7 deaths from 2007 to 2011; and (4) speed-related crashes and not wearing motorcycle helmet were commonly reported for motorcyclist fatalities at approximately 50% and over 80% through the study years, respectively. Additionally, this study highlights that Cambodia has the highest motorcycle death rate in South-East Asia, far surpassing Thailand, Malaysia, and Myanmar. By recognising the patterns of fatal motorcycle crashes in Cambodia, local road-safety champions and stakeholders can design targeted interventions and preventative measures to improve road safety among motorcyclists.     

The effect of natural and built environmental characteristics on pedestrian-vehicle crash severity in Ghana

Despite the benefits of walking as a means of travelling, walking can be quite hazardous. Pedestrian-vehicle crashes remain a major concern in Ghana as they account for the highest percentage of fatalities. The objective of this study is to determine the effect of both natural and built environmental features on pedestrian-vehicle crash severity in Ghana. The study is based on an extensive pedestrian-vehicle crash dataset extracted from the National Road Traffic Accident Database at the Building and Road Research Institute (BRRI) of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Ghana. Using a multinomial logit modelling framework, possible determinants of pedestrian-vehicle crash severity were identified. The study found that fatal crashes are likely to occur during unclear weather conditions, on weekends, at night time where there are no lights, on curved and inclined roads, on untarred roads, at mid-blocks and on wider roads. The developed model and its interpretations will make important contributions to road crash analysis and prevention in Ghana with the possibility of extension to other developing countries. These contributing factors could inform policy makers on road design and operational improvements.     

Road traffic accidents and policy interventions in Korea

The high rate of road traffic crashes, in conjunction with the absence of order on the road, has long been considered a critical social problem in Korea. The Korean public seems to agree that high priority ought to be placed on policies for improving road safety. Using data from government sources, this study describes what has happened in the area of road traffic crashes since 1970, the causes of traffic crashes, and the relative importance of traffic injuries as a cause of death in Korea. Road traffic crashes in Korea increased nearly eightfold, from 37,000 in 1970 to 290,481 in 2000. The fatalities increased three-fold and injuries ten-fold over the same period. Road traffic injuries were the leading cause of death for people under 29. However, through multiple policy interventions, partly in response to the 2002 FIFA World Cup, about two thousand road traffic deaths and nine thousand traffic-related disabilities were averted in 2001 alone. The policy interventions included enforcement of penalties for seven risky driving behaviours, including drunk driving and speeding, installation of traffic-monitoring cameras, financial rewards for citizens who reported traffic violations, introduction of a road safety evaluation system, correction of accident black spots in existing roads, and road safety education programs. Through multiple policy interventions, road traffic crashes in Korea were reduced in a relatively short time period, along with their associated injuries and fatalities. However, road traffic crashes still pose a major public health problem, threatening the quality of life of the Korean people.     

Safety of motorized two-wheeler riders in the formal and informal transport sector

Abstract

Road fatalities are largely preventable problem with large socioeconomic impact. Due to the rapidly increasing population, transport systems and road infrastructure have not met the demand. The use of motorized two-wheeler vehicles has increased, as informal transport. However, evidence on their safety is scarce. The aim of this article is to examine the safety and social equity issues in MTW in the informal transport sector. Factors can be used to explain traffic collisions in MTW in the formal/informal transport sectors: design, rider behavior, road design, enforcement, and regulation of the informal transport sector. Evidence suggests that MTWs could be a common related to pedestrian fatalities. Informal transport drivers are typically poor, uneducated, young men who due to lack of other employment options move into the informal sector. Their vehicles are old, unmaintained and have a lack of protective equipment for themselves and their passengers. Young, male drivers speed, take risks and not use protective equipment. Users of informal transport live in the poorer peripheries of cities, which, have limited, inefficient or unaffordable public transport. The provision of transport has therefore become an often unrecognized, important social equity issue and studies are urgently needed on MTW in the informal transport sector.     

Road traffic crashes with fatal and non-fatal injuries in Arkhangelsk,Russia in 2005–2010

The study investigated trends in traffic crashes with fatal and non-fatal injuries in Arkhangelsk, Russia in 2005–2010. Data were obtained from the road police. Negative binomial regression with time regressor was used to investigate trends in monthly incidence rates (IRs) of crashes, fatalities, and non-fatal injuries. During the six-year period, the police registered 4955 crashes with fatal and non-fatal injuries, which resulted in 217 fatalities and 5964 non-fatal injury cases. The IR of crashes with fatal and non-fatal injuries per total population showed no evident change, while the IR per increasing total number of motor vehicles decreased on average by 0.6% per month. Pedestrian crashes constituted 51.8% of studied crashes, and pedestrians constituted 54.6% of fatalities and 44.5% of non-fatal injuries. The IRs of pedestrian crashes and non-fatal pedestrian injuries per total population decreased on average by 0.3% per month, and these were the major trends in the data.     

Pattern of deaths and injuries in road crashes on three main entrance roads in Kerman,Iran

Road traffic injuries and fatalities are increasing in Kerman, Iran. The study included all road traffic crashes recorded by traffic police forces located in west, northwest and south rural roads between 2005 and 2007 in Kerman city. According to the data, road traffic crashes were the main causes of injuries and deaths in Kerman. The results of this study indicated that significant differences were found between male and the female drivers. Results obtained on the driver's age indicated that higher male crashes were in age groups 26–34 years. Statistical testing of the results at the 5% significant level reveals that rate differences are significant under sunny, foggy, rainy, storm and lighting conditions of driving. The analysis results indicated that a majority of male drivers and only 0.23% of female drivers travelled unbelted while driving on rural roads in Kerman.     

Gender and geographic differences in intentional and unintentional injury mortality among children in Illinois, 1988–1998

Road traffic crashes and injuries constitute a major health, economic and developmental challenge for many African countries. With only 4% of the world's motor vehicles, African roads witness more than 10% of the world total collision fatalities. With further motorisation, the number of road traffic crashes, injuries and fatalities are expected to grow. This study updates on the status, trends, causes, countermeasures and issues in traffic safety in African countries by reviewing studies published in the past 12 years. The study found that traffic fatalities continued its upward trend in recent years. Similar to those in motorised countries, the study identified that human behaviour and incapacitation account for more than 85% of the contributing factors reported by police in Africa. Unlike in developed countries, the victims of traffic casualties are primarily vulnerable road users. Pedestrians alone account for more than 40% of the total fatalities on African roads. Limited countermeasures were reported in the literature. The outcomes of these programmes are mixed and the research methods have inconsistent validity. Investigation in the feasibility of transferring proven programmes from motorised countries is suggested as an efficient measure for traffic safety improvement.     

Progress in pedestrian safety research

Abstract

This paper looks at the pedestrian safety issue and the research that has followed to understand and solve the problem of pedestrian safety in the last 120?years - since the time of the first reported pedestrian fatality in 1899. Researches have studied the epidemiology of pedestrian crashes, pedestrian behaviour, pedestrian movements and pedestrian flows. The suggested strategies to reduce pedestrian crashes have ranged from controlling vehicular speeds to controlling pedestrian behaviour. This study presents a summary of the progress we have made in understanding pedestrian crash patterns. Pedestrian behaviour observed in different regions of the world tend to have similarity in pedestrian behaviour: gap acceptance, preferences of route choice and location for crossing roads. High income countries(HIC) have reported reduction in pedestrian fatalities as compared to low and middle income countries(LMICs), however pedestrian trips have also reduced in these countries leading to concerns about the effectiveness of ‘known’ strategies. Speed control through active measures have been found to have themaximal benefit and education and training programs for altering pedestrian behaviour on the road the least benefits. Low and middle income countries face pedestrian exposure on high speed roads. New research efforts are required to address pedestrian safety in both HIC and LMICs.     

A contemporary analysis of road traffic crashes,fatalities and injuries in Trinidad and Tobago

Road safety, in particular pedestrian safety, is a problem in Trinidad and Tobago. Data were derived from the database of the Traffic and Highway Patrol Unit of the Trinidad and Tobago Police Service. Road traffic crashes in Trinidad and Tobago are largely an urban problem. Four urban areas accounted for nearly three-quarters of reported road traffic crashes, fatalities and injuries. Pedestrians, passengers and drivers accounted for 93% of fatalities and 95% of injuries due to road traffic crashes in 2000. Pedestrians alone accounted for 42% of fatalities and 34% of injuries in 2000. Trends over time show that there has been a decline in fatality rates from 17 deaths per 100,000 population in 1960 to 10 deaths per 100,000 population in 2000, despite rapid motorization. Motorization increased four-fold from 63 registered vehicles per 1000 population in 1960 to 250 vehicles per 1000 population in 2000. In conclusion, effort should be intensified to ensure safety for all road users and, in particular, pedestrians, passengers and drivers. Improved data collection and operational research would improve monitoring and evaluation of policy interventions.     

Road trauma perceptions and the potential influence of the media

The United Nations Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011–2020) recognises the urgency of addressing global road trauma. Road crashes and attempts to reduce risky driving, including public education campaigns, receive media attention in many countries. In Australia, road fatalities have declined significantly. However, the extent of awareness about this success and of fatalities overall is unclear. A survey of 833 Australian drivers revealed the majority of participants under-estimated fatalities. Unexpectedly, some under-estimates appear based on recollections of media reports. The findings suggest lack of awareness of the extent of road deaths and that, paradoxically, media reports might contribute to under-estimations. This represents a major public health challenge. Engaging community support for road safety, relative to other health/safety messages, may prove difficult if the extent of road trauma is misunderstood. Misperceptions about fatality levels may be a barrier to road users adopting safety precautions or supporting further road safety countermeasures.     

Pattern of road traffic injuries in Ghana: Implications for control

Road traffic injuries and fatalities are increasing in Ghana. Police-collected crash and injury data for the period 1994-1998 were aggregated and analyzed using the MAAP5 accident analysis package developed by the Transport Research Laboratory, U.K. Published results of recent transport-related epidemiological and other surveys provided an additional data source. According to the 1994-1998 police data, road traffic crashes were a leading cause of death and injuries in Ghana. The other leading causes of death and injuries are occupational injuries which involve nonmechanized farming and tribal conflicts. The majority of road traffic fatalities (61.2%) and injuries (52.3%) occurred on roads in rural areas. About 58% more people died on roads in the rural areas than in urban areas, and generally more severe crashes occurred on rural roads compared with urban areas. Pedestrians accounted for 46.2% of all road traffic fatalities. The majority of these (66.8%) occurred in urban areas. The second leading population of road users affected was riders in passenger-ferrying buses, minibuses and trucks. The majority of these (42.8%) were killed on roads that pass through rural areas. Pedestrian casualties were overrepresented (nearly 90%) in five regions located in the southern half of the country. Efforts to tackle pedestrian safety should focus on the five regions of the country where most pedestrian fatalities occur in urban areas. Policies are also needed to protect passengers in commercially operated passenger-ferrying buses, minibuses and trucks because these vehicles carry a higher risk of being involved in fatal crashes.     

Cost analysis of road traffic crashes in China

Abstract

Fatalities and injuries resulting from road traffic crashes is always a serious problem. The overall economic losses caused by road traffic crashes are beyond imagination. Including the economic cost of property damage, productivity loss, medical cost, travel delay time cost, legal cost and insurance cost, the total economic cost of traffic crashes in China in 2017 is calculated as 490.1 billion yuan (72.6 billion USD 2017), which is equivalent to 0.60% of the GDP. The cost of productivity loss accounts for the highest proportion of total economic cost, which is 72%. The second is the travel delay cost, accounting for 12% insurance cost, property damage cost and medical cost are followed. The more serious the injury, the higher the unit economic cost. The unit cost of a crash that caused only property damage is 11,274 yuan. The unit cost of a minor injured crash is 20,223 yuan. The highest unit economic cost is the unit cost of a fatal crash, which is 3,181,394 yuan. This study provides important insights into the cost-benefit analysis of China's road safety policies.     

Pedestrian traffic injuries in Mexico: A country update

Road traffic injuries in general and pedestrian injuries in particular are a major public health problem in Mexico, especially in large urban areas. Analysis of mortality and road crashes at the national level was done using routine data recorded on death certificates. Fatality rates for different age groups were estimated by region for the year 2000. These data were supplemented by a cross-sectional study of pedestrian injuries in Mexico City based on death certificates information for pedestrians who lived and died in Mexico City between 1994 and 1997. Participant observation of physical spaces where crashes occurred was carried out. The spaces were filmed and in-depth interviews of survivors conducted. Road traffic crashes were responsible for approximately 17,500 deaths in Mexico during 2000. The mean age of the victims was 37 years. Mexico lost an average of 30 years of productive life for each individual who died in a traffic crash – 525,000 years in 2000. An estimated 9500 (54.3%) of all fatalities were pedestrians, and for every pedestrian death there were 13 others who sustained nonfatal injuries requiring medical care. The overall crude mortality rate for pedestrian injuries in Mexico City was 7.14 per 100,000 (CI 6.85-7.42). A concentration of deaths was observed in 10 neighborhoods at specific types of street environments. The underlying factors included dangerous crossings and the absence or inadequacy of pedestrian bridges, as well as negative perceptions of road safety by pedestrians. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the importance of elucidating the underlying contextual determinants of pedestrian injuries.     

Estimating national road crash fatalities using aggregate data

Injuries and fatalities from road traffic crashes have emerged a major public health challenge in Pakistan. Reliable estimates of road crash fatalities (RCF) of a country, is a vital element needed for identification and control of key risk factors, road-safety improvement efforts and prioritizing national health. Reliability of current annual RCF estimates for Pakistan becomes highly questionable due to serious underreporting. This study aimed to predict annual RCF for Pakistan using data from World Health Organization and International Road Federation sources. An ordinary least square (OLS) regression model that relates fatality rate with different explanatory variables was developed. RCF were predicted for Pakistan for year 2012 and 2013, and results were compared with national police reported estimates. Study results indicated that there is serious underreporting of RCF in Pakistan and immediate measures are needed to improve the existing road crash recording and reporting system at the national and subnational levels.