质量风险管理中几种风险分析量化方法的研究

随着质量管理学科的发展,质量风险管理逐渐成为质量管理工作中必须面对的一个问题。文章针对质量风险管理中的质量风险分析环节,结合已有的一些量化分析方法,提出了将质量风险量化的具体方法;并通过示例说明了量化方法在质量风险管理中的重要性以及在实际的质量管理工作中的实用性。     

International projects proposal analysis: Risk assessment using radial maps

International projects are very attractive to companies seeking to expand their business horizons, and collaborative networks of international partners have created new work environments that differ from the conventional business structures of the past. This study provides scholarly research into the risks that inherently affect an international project's success and provides insight into the effective measures that project managers may employ to assist in analyzing and mitigating these multinational risks during the bid and proposal process. A new method of radial risk mapping assists management in graphing their risk findings to aid in their proposal analysis. These graphical representations provide firms seeking international markets with a method for selecting those projects with the least risk, thereby increasing their chances of success and maximum profit.     

船撞桥风险评估方法概述

船撞桥事故的发生给人们的生命财产带来了严重的损失,而船撞桥风险评估是降低船撞桥风险的重要措施。文章根据风险评估的基本思想,提出了船撞桥风险评估的基本框架,并对已有的船撞桥概率模型、后果模型和风险准则的优缺点进行了分析总结,为船撞桥风险评估及桥梁防撞设计提供了思路和方法。     

Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.     

概率分布设定风险与投资选择

从主客观概率之争入手,结合现实金融资产投资中概率分布的不可知性,讨论金融资产投资分析中的概率分布设定风险,同时借用贝叶斯学习过程与序贯决策策略,探讨概率分布设定风险的控制与投资决策的优化。分析结论认为,基于贝叶斯分析的序贯决策,无论在提升期望收益方面,还是在控制概率分布设定风险方面都是有效的。     

蒙特卡洛法在投资项目风险分析中的应用

本文以经济净现值为评价指标来度量项目的投资风险,确定各影响因素的概率分布,建立了基于三角分布的风险评价的随机模型,采用蒙特卡罗方法进行模拟,利用MATLAB编程实现,得到投资项目的净现值频数分布的直方图和累计频率曲线图,并对模拟结果进行统计和分析,可得到净现值的平均预测值以及风险率,为评价投资项目的风险提供了理论依据。     

某综合大楼的雷击风险评估实例分析

本文以南昌市某综合大楼雷击风险评估为实例,分析阐述资料采集、参数选取、风险计算、风险分析等各过程的方法,以及怎样通过雷击风险评估科学指导建设项目防雷设计。     

环境审计风险的理论定位:一个全新的视角

完整的环境审计风险概念应从广义上理解；环境审计风险的形成原因可概括为审计保险理念以及客观条件的局限、委托代理制的“先天不足”和审计能力的局限等要素；环境审计风险应由环境会计风险、环境管理风险和环境检查风险三个要素组成；运用环境审计风险模型需首先考虑环境会计风险，然后对环境管理风险进行评价，最后再确定环境检查风险的水平。     

汽车制造供应链中关键链工期风险传递机制研究

以汽车制造供应链为研究对象,从工期风险的角度,建立供应链工期风险传递模型,分析当汽车制造供应链中关键链的某节点发生工期风险时,对上下节点的影响。为很好的控制供应链风险提供一个参考。     

基于物流承包商视角的仓储服务外包风险管理与对策研究

从物流承包商视角研究了仓储服务外包风险管理问题,分析了仓储服务外包合作中物流承包商承担的五种风险问题,并提出了物流承包商对仓储服务外包风险的管理对策。     

高速公路资产证券融资风险层次分析模型评价

资产支撑证券化(ABS)是当前颇为流行的融资方式,文章对ABS的概念、在我国的发展情况及尚待解决的问题进行了分析,对高速公路应用资产证券进行融资存在的风险进行识别并建立了风险评价指标体系,同时应用改进的层次分析法对其风险进行评价,并提出了风险规避策略。     

基于风险视角的供应链系统生命周期研究

从风险与供应链系统耦合给供应链带来影响这个新的视角,将供应链系统的生命周期划分为培育期、协同期、失调期、危机期和解体重组期等五个阶段,并对各个阶段的特点及演化机理进行了分析。通过分析,发现供应链系统的价值贡献主要是在供应链系统的协同阶段创造的,它是供应链系统维持长久稳定的竞争力的关键;应重视供应链系统的失调期,供应链失调是供应链内外部风险因素与供应链系统相互耦合中的量变性特征,供应链系统在失调期的补救和改进措施所付出的努力也是整个周期阶段最小的。     

Buyer perceptions of supply disruption risk: A behavioral view and empirical assessment

As supply chains become more complex, firms face increasing risks of supply disruptions. The process through which buyers make decisions in the face of these risks, however, has not been explored. Despite research highlighting the importance of behavioral approaches to risk, there is limited research that applies these views of risk in the supply chain literature. This paper addresses this gap by drawing on behavioral risk theory to investigate the causal relationships amongst situation, representations of risk, and decision-making within the purchasing domain. We operationalize and explore the relationship between three representations of supply disruption risk: magnitude of supply disruption, probability of supply disruption, and overall supply disruption risk. Additionally, we draw on exchange theories to identify product and market factors that impact buyers’ perceptions of the probability and magnitude of supply disruption. Finally, we look at how representations of risk affect the decision to seek alternative sources of supply. We test our model using data collected from 223 purchasing managers and buyers of direct materials. Our results show that both the probability and the magnitude of supply disruption are important to buyers’ overall perceptions of supply disruption risk. We also find that product and market situational factors impact perceptions of risk, but they are best understood through their impact on perceptions of probability and magnitude. Finally, we find that decisions are based on assessments of overall risk. These findings provide insight into the decision-making process and show that all three representations of risk are necessary for fully understanding risky decision-making with respect to supply disruptions.     

基于案例分析的项目风险管理——以武汉国家生物产业基地项目为例

文章以风险管理理论为基础,运用了财务风险评价指标体系,根据武汉国家生物产业基地项目的实际情况对其存在的风险进行了风险识别、风险评估并提出了相应的风险应对策略。这对降低该项目的风险发生概率及减少风险对项目造成的损失有着极大的作用。与此同时,鉴于我国现阶段的大部份建设项目在前期策划阶段风险管理不完善的情况,文章的研究对其它同行业的建设项目风险管理的应用有积极的借鉴意义。     

控制风险、风险溢价与审计收费——来自深市上市公司2007年年报的经验证据

理论上,内部控制质量是审计收费的决定因素之一,但是由于内部控制信息难以获得,因而鲜有这方面的经验证据.而2007年证监会要求上市公司提供内部控制自评报告的规定为评价内部控制质量提供了契机.根据审计价值理论,以2007年深市上市公司为研究样本,考察控制风险(内部控制质量)和诉讼风险对审计收费的影响.研究发现控制风险和审计收费之间的确存在正相关关系,且审计收费中包含了一定程度的风险溢价.     

Risk assessment of China's foreign direct investment in "One Belt,One Road": Taking the green finance as a research perspective

With the active promotion of the "the Belt and Road" initiative, overseas investment has shown a market prospect of explosive growth in various countries and has received continuous attention from scholars at home and abroad. With the proposal of the goal of carbon neutrality in countries and regions along the Belt and Road, green investment has become a new driving force for foreign investment. Based on the theory of quality function deployment (QFD) and the G1 entropy method in fuzzy mathematics, this paper constructs 10 risk indicators of China's foreign investment from the perspective of green from the four levels of economic risk, environmental risk, social and cultural risk and political risk, and studies 61 countries along the line. The results show that the four types of risks have an important impact on China's foreign investment. Therefore, Chinese government and enterprises should strengthen the comprehensive evaluation of the overall situation of the host country when investing. Our research has not only achieved theoretical improvement and practical innovation, but also put forward targeted suggestions for China to strengthen risk prevention and control of investment in countries along the "Belt and Road" from the perspective of green finance.     

浅析软件项目风险管理

软件项目的风险及其管理一直没有得到太多的重视,但它对软件项目的成功起着至关重要的作用。本文概述了软件项目的风险;在现有软件项目风险管理理论的基础上,提出了软件项目风险管理的三维理论框架;并对时间维、知识维和逻辑维进行综合探讨和分析,明确了这三维之间的关系;最后结合我国当前的社会环境和技术环境,提出了几项建议。     

The Effectiveness of Portfolio Risk Diversification: An Additive Approach by Project Replication

This article proposes a probabilistic approach to project operational risk and project portfolio risk diversification. The analysis rests on a fundamental distinction between a fractional and an additive approach for constructing portfolios. Since the additive approach excludes variance as a measure of risk, the project's operational risk is defined by its probability of loss. Paradoxically, the effectiveness of any firm's portfolio risk diversification process will be negatively related to the operational risk of its representative project. We also present the conditions under which risk management and efficiency management can contribute to the firm's strategic imperative of lowering its operational risk.     

供应链金融运作模式与风险管理研究——以中储股份物流监管为例

运用供应链与金融管理相关理论,分析供应链金融运作模式与可能存在的风险,并探讨中储股份供应链物流监管的特征及其风险控制,在此基础上提出供应链风险管理策略。     

基于动态VaR模型的我国银行间拆借市场风险度量研究

本文介绍了一种基于GARCH和非参数法的动态VaR模型——L_VaR模型,用来度量市场风险与流动性风险两者综合风险的大小。并通过采样我国银行间隔夜拆借的高频交易数据,以及SAS软件的数据处理分析发现,GARCH（1,1）模型能较好地拟合隔夜拆借利率的波动情况,而非参数估计法（Boot- strap）能较准确地估计拆借市场流动性的波动水平。实证结果表明。基于动态VaR模型对于市场风险与流动性风险两者综合风险的短期预测效果较为理想。