Economic impacts of developing a biofuel industry in Mozambique

ABSTRACT

Mozambique is one of the most promising African countries for producing biofuels and the national biofuel policy of 2009 identifies measures to incentivize biofuel production. Demand for biofuels in the Southern African Development Community is expected to increase over the next few years as 7 of its 15 member states have implemented or proposed the implementation of blending mandates by 2020. South Africa is one of these countries. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we estimate the impacts of expanding biofuel production in Mozambique under both commercial and smallholder-type farming models, including and excluding bagasse cogeneration.     

Biofuels technology development in Southern Africa

ABSTRACT

The benefits of biofuels depend on the feedstock, conversion pathway and local context. This paper assesses biofuels technology readiness and developments to provide foresight to biofuels development in Southern Africa. Efficient conversion pathways, coupled with biomass from waste or high-yielding energy crops, will reduce both the costs of biofuels production, and the environmental impacts. Compared to petroleum fuels, the current commercial biofuels (ethanol, biogas and biodiesel) typically offer carbon emission reductions of 30–50% but are marginally more expensive. The extent of biofuels market penetration will therefore be influenced by mandates (blending targets) and subsidies (green premium). Advanced biofuels promise greater efficiencies and carbon emission reductions at reduced cost but will require further research and development to reach commercialisation. If developed appropriately, biofuels can reduce carbon emissions and improve energy security, while enabling sustainable agriculture and improved natural resources management.     

The role of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic entrepreneurship in South Africa

ABSTRACT

This study examines the effect of foreign direct investment on domestic entrepreneurship in South Africa. With the focus on inward capital flows, the study specifically employed stock data and the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor to measure the impact. The data set analysed is for the period 2000–18, and after testing a Threshold Vector Autoregressive model, it was established that there is a short-run and long-run nonlinear relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic entrepreneurship in South Africa. The key findings of the study were that foreign direct investment has a positive short-run and long-run influence on domestic entrepreneurship. The policy recommendations are for government to create an eco-system that supports entrepreneurship through the lowering of regulatory burden on new domestic firms and enact robust sector-specific localisation policies for big corporations.     

Economy-wide implications of biofuel production in Zambia

ABSTRACT

Potential biofuel demand in South Africa is estimated to increase to 1550 million litres by 2025 due to mandatory blending rates. Land and water constraints, however, limit the ability for domestic production. Zambia, due to its abundance in land, suitable climate, supportive set of bioenergy incentives and close geographical location to South Africa, has the potential to meet this increase in demand. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the macro- and socio-economic impacts of bioethanol production in Zambia from three potential crops: sugarcane, cassava and sweet sorghum. The results show that the development of a single product bioethanol industry has the potential to increase economic growth without negatively affecting overall food security. Further expansion of the industry to multiple products results in larger gains to growth and welfare.     

Bank Efficiency and Macro-economic Factors: The Case of Developing Countries

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of macro-economic factors on bank efficiency of commercial banks in Asia, Middle East/North Africa, and Africa. To achieve the objective, the stochastic frontier approach (SFA) was used to simultaneously estimate the parameters of the stochastic frontier and the inefficiency model. The results show that the effect of macro-economic factors on bank efficiency differs across region. Cost inefficiency of the commercial banks in the Asian region is negatively related to the real gross domestic product per capita, credit to the private sector, and market concentration but is positively related to trade openness. Banks cost inefficiency in the Middle East/North Africa is negatively related to trade openness but is positively related to market concentration suggesting that banking market in this region should be more open to competition.     

Poverty and inequality in South Africa: critical reflections

ABSTRACT

South Africa is a paradox; on the one hand, it is one of the most unequal countries in the world. Half of all South Africans continue to live in poverty, economic growth has stagnated and inflation remains high, while the unemployment rate continues to climb towards 30%. On the other hand, it has one of the most progressive constitutions in the world, with a bill of rights that foregrounds expanded socioeconomic rights. We provide an overview of the latest statistics on poverty and inequality in light of overarching economic policies, and the socioeconomic guarantees of the Constitution. We argue that South Africa’s inability to meaningfully address the high levels of inequality is due to insufficient attention to the way power reproduces inequality. We present a definition of power that includes social and market power, and emphasise the importance of a theory of power in understanding the reproduction of inequality.     

Skills in South Africa: The journey towards credible planning

ABSTRACT

Since 1994 the state has instituted active labour market policies to redress the apartheid skills legacy. The skills planning challenge continues to be how to coordinate efforts for the provision of the right skills to support inclusive economic growth, ensuring an alignment is achieved between what is required in the labour market and the supply from the education and training system. This article traces the South African journey of skills planning from late apartheid until the current time period in 2014 through a historical analysis of the political economy. The analysis reflects on the relationship between state formation in South Africa and the role of the state in directing skills development, and in the more recent period how skills planning responds to both the demands of the economy and ameliorating the historical legacies of education and skills exclusion.     

Domestic tourist spending and economic development: The case of the North West Province

Globally, tourism is the largest and fastest growing industry, outpacing all other industries. In South Africa, tourism is widely regarded as a growth catalyst, able to generate much-needed income and employment opportunities. The market potential of domestic tourism has, however, been downplayed in favour of international tourism. This research argues that tourism – especially domestic tourism – can contribute significantly to regional growth and development in South Africa. A survey was carried out among domestic tourists in the North West Province, one of the poorest provinces in South Africa. This survey was used to draw up a demographic and spending profile of the average domestic tourist in the province, and to determine the possible implications of this spending on different macroeconomic variables in the province.     

The implications for suppliers of the spread of supermarkets in southern Africa

ABSTRACT

The growth of supermarkets in southern Africa opens local and regional markets to suppliers through participation in supermarket supply chains. Supermarkets in the region provide an important route to market for processed foods and household consumable products. Through a regional value chain lens, this article provides an assessment of the implications of the growth of supermarkets for the participation of suppliers in Botswana, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The research finds that, while supermarkets provide important opportunities for suppliers, they also exert considerable buyer power that limits supplier development and upgrading. High private standards, onerous requirements and costly trading terms negatively affect supplier participation in value chains. Long-term investments are required to build the capabilities of suppliers to meet supermarket requirements in terms of quality, consistency, volume and cost-competitiveness.     

Bioenergy in Southern Africa: An opportunity for regional integration?

ABSTRACT

This introductory paper sets out the rationale for revisiting questions surrounding biofuel futures in Southern Africa and exploring the case for the establishment of a regional market. This contrasts with most research that has focused upon benefits and risks of production and consumption for individual countries. The analysis in this issue suggests that while benefits exist, the key challenges that have stifled production and consumption to date would need to be overcome. Unlocking trade requires relaxing requirements for South African manufacturers to source all their feedstock domestically. Key among factors to encourage production is resolving agricultural investment processes, particularly designing inclusive business models and clarifying land acquisition processes.     

Poverty,gender and migrancy: Lesotho's migrant farmworkers in South Africa

During the 1990s, eastern Free State vegetable farmers increasingly relied on migrants from neighbouring Lesotho for seasonal labour. This coincided with a major downsizing of the mine labour force in South Africa, hitherto the major employer of Basotho migrant workers. However, there was no simple process of transfer of unemployed migrants from the mining to the farming sector; rather, decisions were mediated by domestic relationships and household poverty in Lesotho. Basotho women and girls have been a major casualty of mine retrenchments and the drying up of remittances, and those with domestic skills but little formal training have been forced into the labour market, mainly domestic work in towns and labour on farms. This article examines the Basotho migrants' experiences and conditions of employment, the regulatory environment within which they are recruited and employed, and their future in the context of changing immigration and migration legislation in South Africa.     

Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals: Potential Macroeconomic Consequences for South Africa

South Africa is one of the emerging market countries that have received a relatively large amount of foreign capital since the mid‐2000s. In South Africa's case, these inflows were partly used to build the country's foreign exchange reserves, but more particularly to finance continued large current account deficits. During the course of the past two years, however, adverse domestic political developments, combined with the potential negative impacts of the unwinding of quantitative easing policies and the normalising of monetary policy in the United States on emerging markets in general, has raised the spectre of a sharp slowdown in foreign capital flows to South Africa and an associated reversal of the current deficit. This paper explores the potential impact of such a development on macroeconomic conditions in South Africa. The analysis consists of macroeconometric model‐based alternative scenarios backed up by both the international evidence on the impact of such events and South Africa's own history.     

ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION AND MARKET CONCENTRATION: AN INVESTIGATION INTO FOUR SOUTH AFRICAN AGRO-FOOD INDUSTRIES

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Measuring wealth inequality in South Africa: An agenda

ABSTRACT

Understanding wealth inequality has unique significance in South Africa. The co-existence of extreme poverty and extreme wealth is starkly visible. Apartheid-era inequality has persisted despite more than 20 years of democracy. Much of the recent research focus on inequality has been on inequality of income and of opportunities, especially quantitatively. With the recent project to release South African tax administrative data for research, this paper hopes to show how use of the tax administrative data can contribute to developing a refreshed quantitative analysis of wealth inequality, especially in estimating the top shares of the wealth distribution, and so contribute to the existing literature on wealth inequality in South Africa. The first section will explore why studying wealth inequality is of fundamental importance. The second section will review international data and methods used to research wealth inequality, before laying out suggested approach to doing such studies in South Africa.     

University population expenditure and its impact on real estate demand: Evidence from South Africa

ABSTRACT

A university campus has an ability to attract consumers from outside the region who spend locally to the benefit of the local economy and in particular the real estate market. This article identifies the real estate benefit to the host city from staff and student spending. The Potchefstroom Campus of the North-West University in South Africa is used as an example and real estate demand modelling is applied to estimate the real estate space demand benefit to the host city. In 2016, the R2.2 billion expenditure by staff and students spilled over into a healthy demand for floor space in the city. A steady increase in on-campus, full-time students and a corresponding increase in staff numbers will continue to benefit the demand for real estate. However, this close relationship between university enrolments and activity in the real estate market could similarly be constrained if spending is under pressure.     

Estimating the future health care cost of population aging in South Africa

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses the relationship between health care expenditure and population aging in South Africa using yearly data from 1983 to 2015. Empirical evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach to cointegration indicates that old dependency and life expectancy are major drivers of public health expenditure in South Africa besides the income. Particularly, when structural breaks are controlled for, income exhibits a long-term elasticity with respect to health spending greater than unity; suggesting that South African public health care has become a luxury good over time. Interestingly, South African public health spending is found to be responsive to demographic development only in the long run. This is consistent with the micro evidence that health expenditure increases with individual age with significant impacts in the long term. Finally, using economic and demographic projections statistics, we find that public health expenditure could roughly double in the next fifteen years ceteris paribus.     

Analysing legal mobilisation’s potential to secure equal access to socioeconomic justice in South Africa

ABSTRACT

From the moment South Africa became a liberal democracy, the Government promised to deliver on social security for the poor. However, South African NGOs have reported that several barriers prevent poor South Africans, and black women in particular, from accessing the country’s social assistance system. Government inaction has compelled NGOs to approach the Courts. As reflected in a series of court judgements, many problems faced by the system relate to the administration of payments by South African and multinational corporations. But is this the complete story?

Applying a critical, analytical lens of legal mobilisation to explain the potential of legal mobilisation to secure progressive structural change, this article will assess the extent to which civic-based, legal advocacy aimed at securing access to social grants, and challenging the manner in which these grants have been administered, has the potential to more strategically advance socioeconomic justice and inequality for South Africa’s poor.     

Johannesburg’s implementation of the National Water Act, 1998 in Soweto,South Africa

ABSTRACT

The Guide to the National Water Act, 1998 (Act 36 of 1998) regards the availability of water as a basic human right. However, local governments seem to struggle to pay for the water they provide to their residents as prescribed in the Water Services Act, 1997 (Act 108 of 1997). This study focused on the domestic provision and consumption of water in Soweto, one of the largest townships in the Johannesburg area of South Africa. Surveys were conducted with 372 respondents from three different socio-economic suburbs in Soweto with the aim to establish their water use perceptions and practices. Study results indicate implementation of the National Water Act is still being resisted by Sowetan households more than two decades after its adoption, due to the difference in expectations of the municipality and the residents regarding rights to water access and responsible usage.     

Connecting capabilities in highly unequal developing countries: The case of the Square Kilometre Array telescope in South Africa

ABSTRACT

Innovation and skills development require interactive capabilities to function effectively. Interactive capabilities mediate between skills supply and skills demand actors in an innovation system, and in the knowledge economy more broadly. This article investigates such interactive capabilities, and the manner in which they facilitate labour market alignment. Within a case-study focus on the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) telescope in South Africa, we investigate how organisational capabilities, structures, and mechanisms facilitate or constrain interaction between the SKA and its network partners, including universities, firms, intermediaries, and a technical college. This illustrates how pockets of excellence within an unequal South African skills and innovation landscape were effectively connected in order to build a critical mass of skills and technologies that were highly competitive on the international stage. This shows how, in highly unequal developing countries, interactive capabilities form a lever for access to the global science and technology frontier.     

The impact of tourism on poverty in South Africa

This paper evaluates the potential impact of tourism on poverty in South Africa on the basis of recent survey data on international tourism spending patterns. It looks at three scenarios, using an applied general equilibrium model. The main finding is that the poor benefit very little in the short term from additional tourism income. A further finding is that domestic and international tourist expenditure affect the economy differently; both markets are therefore important. In essence, the research confirms that tourism receipts can be used as a tool to alleviate poverty, but in South Africa this must be supported by policies that focus on the labour market and human resource development.