模糊逻辑分析在预测公路项目设计费用中的应用

本文的模型用于预测工程设计费用潜在超支的大小。用模糊逻辑分析法描述项目特征与风险事件的关系，以及它们的各种组合对设计费用超支的影响。讨论了用模型来识别项目特征与风险事件，解释了模型结构和模糊逻辑分析法的应用。     

Causality in social theory via linguistic fuzzy logic

I present a new approach to the study of causality in social theory using linguistic fuzzy logic as a framework. This approach differs from conventional analysis of causality on two fronts. First, all variables are considered to possess two degrees of freedom (or variation): a linguistic nuance value, which corresponds to what we conventionally refer to as interval or categorical value, and a linguistic truth value, which measures our confidence level in this nuance value. Second, combining this double fuzzification of variables with linguistic fuzzy logic I propose new tools for studying fuzzy causality. The linguistic fuzzy logic approach is illustrated through a re-examination of Skocpol’s (1979, States and social revolutions: a comparative analysis of France, Russia, and China. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge) theory of social revolution.     

Accommodating a Foreign Object: Federalism,coordination and performance management in the reform of German employment administration

Abstract

This paper uses the case of the reform of the German employment administration to explore the usage of performance management approaches within multi-level governance settings. It traces the adoption and accommodation of the performance management approach to govern the joint service centres (called ‘Jobcenter’) at the local level within the multi-level administrative coordination regime in Germany’s federal system. A contribution is made to nascent debates about the potential of managerial tools in systems of negotiated decision-making. The paper shows how performance management is adapted to the institutional logic of multi-level administrative coordination and serves as a facilitator of cross-level coordination.     

An Aggregated Regional Economic Input–Output Analysis within a Fuzzy Environment

Abstract

Imprecision within economic input–output frameworks can be a problem, particularly when investigating the characteristics of defined industry sectors. This study undertakes an aggregated regional economic input–output analysis, within a fuzzy environment. The dearth of studies encompassing a fuzzy approach within input–output analysis largely concerns the problematic representation of imprecision. Results pertaining to the fuzzy output multipliers associated with each sector group are described, including possibilistic mean and variance; also identified is a specific ranking of the sector groups. Where appropriate, results are compared with those from a Monte Carlo simulation based stochastic analysis.     

Homogeneous semi-Markov reliability models for credit risk management*

Abstract The credit risk problem is one of the most important issues of modern financial mathematics. Fundamentally it consists in computing the default probability of a company going into debt. The problem can be studied by means of Markov transition models. The generalization of the transition models by means of homogeneous semi-Markov models is presented in this paper. The idea is to consider the credit risk problem as a reliability problem. In a semi-Markov environment it is possible to consider transition probabilities that change as a function of waiting time inside a state. The paper also shows how to apply semi-Markov reliability models in a credit risk environment. In the last section an example of the model is provided. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 60K15, 60K20, 90B25, 91B28 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: G21, G33     

Improving collaboration between large and small-medium enterprises in automobile production

ABSTRACT

Inter-organisational collaboration is important for achieving qualitative and quantitative performance improvement in the global competitive environment. In particular, the extent of collaboration between the mother company and its suppliers is important for the profitability and sustainability of a company in the automobile industry, which is carried out using a customisation and order production system. As a result of the empirical analysis in this study, the collaborative information sharing cycle is shortened and the collaborative information sharing scope is widened. Therefore, the level of collaboration is improved by constructing an IT collaboration system.     

Operationalizing Co-Production in Public Services Delivery: The contribution of service blueprinting

Abstract

We have argued for public services to move away from product-dominant logic towards a service approach. By taking a services orientation, the experience, inter-organizational, and systemic nature of public services delivery can be considered along with the role of the service user as a co-producer. In this article, we unpack how co-production can be operationalized through the application of service blueprinting. This article presents an example within higher education where the creation of a blueprint brought together staff and students to focus on the design of student enrolment, resulting in improved student experience and supporting co-production.     

Does Adaptive Capacity Influence Service Delivery? Evidence from Swedish Emergency Management Collaborations

Abstract

The relationship between adaptive capacity and collaborative performance is a central issue within public management research but has rarely been subjected to systematic empirical testing. Using survey data on emergency preparedness collaborations in Swedish municipalities (N = 263), this article investigates the relationship between three adaptive capacity variables – diversity, interaction, and learning – and outcomes in terms of goal attainment, risk analysis, and public satisfaction with rescue services. The findings suggest a positive relationship between the number of collaboration partners and goal attainment, while learning and accessibility of collaboration venues were unassociated with service delivery variables.     

公司绩效评价的逻辑分析——基于四川九州电器集团的案例

现行母公司对子公司绩效的评价,主要是建立在企业财务指标的基础上。母子公司体制和子公司的特征决定了绩效评价指标体系的特殊逻辑,子公司绩效评价相对比率综合评价法具有严密逻辑关系的评估体系。本文分析了四川九洲电器集团母子公司体制,认为其公司绩效分类评价的做法具有借鉴意义。     

Expect the unexpected: examining the shaping role of entrepreneurial orientation on causal and effectual decision-making logic during economic crisis

ABSTRACT

While many firms operate in dynamic environments, the competitive conditions faced by firms during an economic crisis are especially unstable and turbulent. We examine firm strategic decision-making in this distinctive context and investigate the question of whether causal and effectual logic provide similar paths to performance during such challenging economic times. Further, we examine the potential impact that a firm’s level of entrepreneurial orientation (EO) has upon the relationship between managers’ predominant decision-making logic and their firm’s overall performance in this crisis. To test these relationships, we employ a robust national random sample of 447 Russian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) collected from 2015 to 2016 during a period of economic crisis. Our results indicate that EO plays an important moderating role, shaping the nature of the relationships between managers’ decision-making logic and financial performance. Moreover, additional analysis identifies the presence of a non-linear relationship between both logics and the performance of SMEs.     

企业财务诊断视角下的企业应收账款管理分析——以KN公司为例

财务是企业发展的命脉.随着企业竞争环境的日益复杂,财务链完整、有序地运营已经成为企业竞争中的重要环节.其中,应收账款管理正被越来越多的企业所重视.企业的应收账款能够直接反映企业的资金周转情况,直接决定了企业是否能够顺利开展日常业务.文章选取KN公司为研究对象,通过走访调查以及搜集相关二手资料,分析KN公司应收账款的管理现状,并结合KN公司的经营特点,发现KN公司应收账款管理中存在应收账款增长速度快、占总周转资金收入高等问题;同时,还明确了KN公司的经营风险和财务风险,分析了应收账款对KN公司经营发展存在的影响,并针对性地提出了一些建议,以期能够帮助KN公司实施更好的应收账款管理.     

浅析保险公司风险管理与控制

本文首先阐述了保险公司风险管理的内容,其次,分析了我国保险公司风险管理现状。同时,从细化责任,全员参与;设立保险公司全面风险管理机构;提高客户信用评级管理水平;利用SAS助力保险公司加强风险管理等方面就如何有效加强保险公司风险管理与控制进行了深入的探讨,具有一定的参考价值。     

TrAffic LIght system for systemic Stress: TALIS3

For the purposes of financial stability, identifying financial institutions that, when in distress, could have a significant adverse impact on financial markets is important. A TrAffic LIght System for Systemic Stress (TALIS-cube) is proposed that provides a comprehensive color-based classification for grouping companies according to both the stress reaction level of the system when the company is in distress and the company’s stress level. TALIS³ can integrate multiple signals from the interaction between different risk metrics. Starting from specific risk indicators, companies are classified by combining two loss functions—one for the system and one for each company—evaluated over time and as a cross section. An aggregated index is also obtained from the color-based classification of companies. TALIS³ can be used to enhance the performance and robustness of existing systemic risk measures. An empirical analysis of the U.S. market is also provided.     

基于模糊综合评判法的第三方物流服务商选择模型研究

本文通过分析物流外包战略，物流服务商类型，以及物流的成本及风险．构建一个关于选择第三方物流服务商的模型，并采用两级模糊综合评判法，结合选择模型从定量的角度分析给出综合的物流服务商选择的模型，为供应链中的成员选择物流服务商提供思路。     

Disorder in the Risk Order

Abstract

This paper studies the difference in global equity portfolios allocated by the criterion of minimizing the risk by using two different risk measures, the standard deviation and the conditional value at risk. An empirical analysis is performed on a comprehensive stock exchange database. The main hypothesis of the present work is that the choice of risk measure has crucial importance in portfolio optimisation, especially in those situations when the stock markets are extremely volatile and the return distributions are non-normal. The rationale behind establishing minimum-risk portfolios is to keep track of the highest possible risk reduction benefits from international diversification.     

模糊数学在风险变量估计问题中的应用

风险估计是风险管理中直接影响到风险决策的重要一环。风险变量的量化分析则是对风险因素的深入认识,使抽象因素具体化。如何确定风险变量的变化模型是管理者一直关注的问题。现在风险不确定性模型多采用概率模型描述,它对风险的边界不确定性不能明确表述。而模糊数学对处理不确定性问题有独到之处,用模糊数学方法可以有效解决风险分析和估计的问题。     

工程项目质量管理体系及成熟度评价

以某电建企业为例对质量、质量管理、项目质量管理的相关理论进行系统分析,然后,分析电建项目质量管理阶段的质量问题及成因,提出构建工程项目质量管理体系,继而基于电建项目的施工特点构建工程项目质量管理成熟度模型,通过层次模糊综合评价法综合评定某电建单位质量管理成熟度水平,验证质量管理体系在工程项目质量管理中的科学性。     

浅谈农业保险经营的风险管理问题

积极发展农业保险,为农业和农村经济协调发展提供系统、全面的风险保障,是我国保险业面临的新任务。文章首先阐述了保险公司在经营农业保险时可能会面临的风险,然后运用风险管理理论和保险学原理,对如何构建农业保险风险管理系统及运用农业保险风险管理技术提出了可行性建议。     

Civic Engagement in the Performance Evaluation of the Public Sector in China: Building horizontal accountability to enhance vertical accountability

Abstract

This article accounts for the logic of building of an accountability mechanism with elements of civic engagement in an authoritarian regime. It is elaborated by a performance evaluation programme ‘Democratic Review of Administrative and Business Style’ (DRABS) in Wuhan in central China. The author argues that the DRABS does help form government agencies’ responsiveness to the public with various public scrutiny instruments including mass media and the internet, and that it is more accurate to frame the mechanism as having the function of building horizontal accountability to enhance vertical accountability.     

浅谈供电公司加强客户信用管理的重要性

随着电力市场化运作,供电公司客户的信用管理已成为企业管理的新课题。本文通过分析供电公司客户信用风险产生的原因及现状,剖析了加强客户信用管理对供电公司提高电费回收力度的重要性。为了有效的提高电费的回收力度,供电公司必须采取科学的客户信用管理机制,以规避资金风险。