Technological Change,Job Risk,and Wage Premium: Evidence from Taiwan

The paper reports the results of analyzing the effects of technological change and job risk on wage premiums in Taiwan. Using unique individual data combined with industry‐level indices of technological change and fatality rates across industries, the empirical results show that, overall, industries characterized by a higher rate of technological change or fatality pay a higher wage. However, these positive correlations are attributed to the sorting effect in which workers with some specific features choose to find jobs in industries with rapid technological change and higher job risk. Furthermore, this paper reports a positive relationship between education and wages after controlling for individual heterogeneity, showing the existence of education premium in Taiwan.     

Earnings Quality and the Equity Risk Premium: A Benchmark Model*

This paper solves a model that links earnings quality to the equity risk premium in an infinite‐horizon consumption capital asset pricing model (CAPM) economy. In the model, risk‐averse traders hold diversified portfolios consisting of risk‐free bonds and shares of many risky firms. When constructing their portfolios, traders rely on noisy reported earnings and dividend payments for information about the risky firms. The main new element of the model is an explicit representation of earnings quality that includes hidden accrual errors that reverse in subsequent periods. The model demonstrates that earnings quality magnifies fundamental risk. Absent fundamental risk, poor earnings quality cannot affect the equity risk premium. Moreover, only the systematic (undiversified) component of earnings‐quality risk contributes to the equity risk premium. In contrast, all components of earnings‐quality risk affect earnings capitalization factors. The model ties together consumption CAPM and accounting‐based valuation research into one price formula linking earnings quality to the equity risk premium and earnings capitalization factors.     

Economic consequences of war: Evidence from Sri Lanka

We propose a theoretical and econometric framework to evaluate the impact of war on economic growth of a developing country with an open economy. The theoretical framework encompasses both the neoclassical and endogenous growth models. We test this framework using Sri Lankan data. The war had significant and negative effects both in the short and long-run (annual average of 9% of GDP). High returns from investment in physical capital did not translate in sizable positive externalities. Only short-run significant effects of openness on growth are found. Inconsistent politically driven policies towards openness are the likely reason.     

India and Indonesia: Lessons Learned from the 2013 Taper Tantrum

In May 2013, the US Federal Reserve began to talk about the possibility of ending its program of quantitative easing. This tapering talk had a significant impact on five main emerging-market countries—Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey (the ‘Fragile Five’)—whose exchange rates weakened dramatically and whose stock and bond markets were hit hard. This series of events is now known as the ‘taper tantrum’. In response to the tantrum, these five countries each took a series of macroeconomic policy measures to relieve pressure in their financial markets. Indonesia and India handled the problem in the shortest time (about seven months) and achieved macro-economic stabilisation. This article examines how Indonesia and India managed to remain relatively unscathed by the taper tantrum and escape the Fragile Five. It looks at which policies the two countries adopted at the time, and why they chose them, as well as why India's economy performed better than Indonesia's after the tantrum.     

Bank capital and lending: Evidence of nonlinearity from Indonesia

This paper studies the transmission of bank capital shocks to loan supply in Indonesia. Using bank data for the period 2001:Q1 to 2018:Q4, we estimate dynamic panel data models of bank lending. We find nonlinear effects of capital on loan growth. Specifically, the response of weakly capitalized banks to changes in their capital positions is larger than that of strongly capitalized banks. This non-linearity implies that not only the level of capital but also its distribution across banks in the system affects the transmission of shocks to aggregate lending. Likewise, the effects of bank recapitalization on loan growth depend on banks’ starting capital positions and the size and distribution of capital injections.     

A Closer Look at the Size and Value Premium in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange

In this study of asset pricing in emerging markets, two questions are asked. First, Is there a size and value premium in markets outside the USA? Second, Can the multifactor model of Fama and French (1996) capture the cross–section of average stock returns for the Malaysian setting? The answers from this study suggest that size and value premium exist in markets outside the USA. We find that the two mimic portfolios, ‘small minus big’ (SMB) and ‘high minus low’ (HML), generate a return of 17.70% and 17.69% per annum, respectively, while the market generates a return of 1.92% per annum. Our findings suggest that the multi–factor model of Fama and French (1996) is a parsimonious representation of the risk factors for Malaysia, explaining returns in an economically meaningful manner. Our findings also reject the claim that the multifactor model results can be explained by the turn–of–the–year effect.     

Global Risk Factors and South African Equity Indices

South African equity is frequently portrayed as a market requiring a high degree of local expertise – to appropriately understand its many idiosyncratic features – as well as intimate knowledge of its unique drivers – to prudently invest in the same. This claim is evidenced by the amount of research and effort devoted to understanding South African‐specific economics, interest rates and risks. The aim of this research is to debunk this perception with a simple yet robust and highly replicable statistical model (best‐subsets regression) for the majority of the traded South African equity indices. We show how the South African equity market is mostly a one‐way mirror of a confluence of international factors, all arguable largely unrelated to South Africa. We discuss why these models are currently less useful than their longer‐term predictive averages and note the current relevance of including implied volatility and interest rates as predictors.     

劳动力流动与大城市工资溢价——基于30个省会城市数据的经验证据

以劳动力流动率为切入点,选用30个省会城市2010-2019年的面板数据,测度中国大城市“工资溢价”现状,在此基础上,利用空间杜宾模型考察了劳动力流动与工资溢价之间的空间效应。基于现有数据研究发现,近十年间中国大城市“工资溢价”现象依然存在;劳动力流动率对大城市工资溢价具有空间溢出效应;劳动力流动拉大了大城市工资溢价,尤其是人口超过500万以上的超大城市劳动力流动提高对工资溢价促进作用显著,人口在100-500万之间的大城市劳动力流动对工资溢价的影响并不显著。     

Stock market uncertainty and uncovered equity parity deviation: Evidence from Asia

Recently, many empirical studies document that a country's stock market performance relative to the US and its local currency units per US dollar tend to move in opposite direction over the short run, also known as the uncovered equity parity (UEP) condition. However, those studies have applied only to advanced economies to date. This study conducted the same tests to a sample of 18 Asian economies. To one's surprise, we found that the UEP condition reverses its sign among Asian currencies. In addition, measures of stock market uncertainty are suggested as a potential driving force behind this UEP reversal for Asian economies. This surprising result suggests that there might be other mechanisms behind the joint dynamics of equity and currency returns than the portfolio rebalancing caused by incomplete foreign exchange risk hedging. The reasoning is that Asian foreign exchange (FX) markets are even more subject to incomplete foreign exchange risk hedging. Thus, one should expect even stronger UEP evidence from Asian currency markets if the portfolio rebalancing mechanism was the only force at play.     

Control Premium and Corporate Regulatory Changes: Theory and Evidence

We propose a model to estimate the private benefits of control in control transfer transactions for a broad range of regulatory environments, from private negotiations to mandatory tender offers. The Barclay and Holderness' and Dyck and Zingales' Block Premium models are nested as special cases. With corporate control transfer regulation around the world moving from the Market Rule to the Equal Opportunity Rule, our theoretical model is a flexible tool for empirical studies. We apply our model to study the effect of the implementation of Chile's Tender Offer Law in 2000 and find that control premiums fell significantly. This drop is statistically unrelated to the targets' affiliation to an economic group. Our results suggest that improved corporate governance practices and the Equal Opportunity Rule alignment effect reduced the scope for extraction of private benefits of control.     

大股东股权质押、非效率投资与企业风险承担——基于中国A股上市公司的证据

选取2009-2019年中国A股上市公司年度数据,构建面板回归模型对大股东股权质押对企业风险承担的影响及其作用机制进行了实证分析.研究表明:(1)大股东股权质押对企业风险承担具有促进作用.相对于民营企业与低市场化进程地区企业,大股东股权质押对国有企业与高市场化进程地区企业风险承担的促进力度更大.(2)大股东股权质押容易引发企业过度投资而加剧非效率投资,由此加大企业风险承担,大股东股权质押-非效率投资-企业风险承担的传导渠道有效.(3)股权制衡对大股东股权质押与企业风险承担关系具有负向调节作用,股权制衡度提高会减弱大股东股权质押对企业风险承担的促进作用.(4)信贷约束对大股东股权质押与企业风险承担关系具有正向调节作用,信贷约束度提高会加剧大股东股权质押对企业风险承担的促进作用.该成果将为防控中国实体企业运营风险及实现中国经济高质量发展提供重要的理论指导与决策参考.     

大股东股权制衡的公司治理效应——来自民营上市公司的证据

目前关于股权制衡的研究重点关注股权制衡对公司业绩的影响,而对其作用机制及路径并未引起足够重视,同时也忽视了关系大股东产生的负面影响。利用我国民营上市公司数据,实证分析了股权制衡的治理效应与作用路径,并进一步分析大股东持股水平、大股东关系对股权制衡治理机制的影响。研究结果表明,股权制衡既提高了公司投资效率,也抑制了大股东掏空,因此促进了公司经营业绩。对于大股东控制程度较低的公司,股权制衡削弱了投资无效率与掏空导致的不利影响,但对于大股东控制力较强的公司,股权制衡的治理机制并未显著发挥作用。如果公司存在关系大股东,大股东可能采取一致行动实施掏空行为。关系大股东的存在导致股权制衡也难以发挥投资效率促进和掏空抑制的治理作用。     

Dynamics of Idiosyncratic Volatility and Market Volatility: An Emerging Market Perspective

Abstract

Estimating idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) using various model-dependent and model-independent measures, we investigate the characteristics of aggregate IVOL in Malaysia over the period 1990–2008. The IVOL estimated in all models have similar patterns and has no trend over the sample period. There is evidence of episodic phenomenon. During financial crisis periods, market volatility is relatively higher than IVOL – a plausible reason is high correlation between firms' returns. Small firms and low-priced stocks appear to influence IVOL more than large firms and high-priced stocks. In Malaysia, market volatility and IVOL may predict GDP growth.     

Negative economic shocks and child schooling: Evidence from rural Malawi

This study investigates the impacts of negative economic shocks on child schooling in households of rural Malawi, one of the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Both individually-reported and community-level shocks are investigated. There is evidence that community-level shocks negatively impact the school enrolment of children. The point estimates suggest that this effect is larger when shocks and school enrolment are reported by men as compared with women. However, we cannot conclude with statistical confidence that the impact of idiosyncratic shocks is larger when reported by males than when reported by females. Similarly, although the point estimates suggest that the impact of community-level shocks on the school enrolment of children is larger than that of idiosyncratic shocks, we cannot conclude with statistical significance that the impacts of community-level and idiosyncratic shocks are different.     

The Interactions of Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the ASEAN-5 Countries: New Evidence Using a Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Approach

Abstract

Using a data-set from the ASEAN-5 countries over the January 2000–August 2013 period, this paper revisits the Granger causal nexus between the equity and foreign exchange markets by employing the bootstrap panel Granger causality approach developed by Kònya, which allows for both cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. The results indicate a unidirectional causality from stock prices to exchange rates in Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand and from exchange rates to stock prices in Indonesia. These findings have important implications for policy-makers and institutional investors who should rigidly monitor the dynamic linkages between stock price and exchange rate movements across the ASEAN-5 financial markets when making policy decisions and investing in these countries.