Least squares learning and the US Treasury bill rate

Understanding how agents formulate their expectations about Fed behavior is important for market participants because they can potentially use this information to make more accurate estimates of stock and bond prices. Although it is commonly assumed that agents learn over time, there is scant empirical evidence in support of this assumption. Thus, in this paper we test if the forecast of the three month T-bill rate in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is consistent with least squares learning when there are discrete shifts in monetary policy. We first derive the mean, variance and autocovariances of the forecast errors from a recursive least squares learning algorithm when there are breaks in the structure of the model. We then apply the Bai and Perron (1998) test for structural change to a forecasting model for the three month T-bill rate in order to identify changes in monetary policy. Having identified the policy regimes, we then estimate the implied biases in the interest rate forecasts within each regime. We find that when the forecast errors from the SPF are corrected for the biases due to shifts in policy, the forecasts are consistent with least squares learning.     

Types of motions as proposed in the Dutch House of Representatives

This exploratory study provides an answer to the question what a coalition agreement means for negotiation by political parties in the House and what consequences this has for the motions submitted. Motions on environmental and immigration policy are compared at the time of two different governments. Based on the coalition agreements we estimate how much space for negotiation with regard to both issues and both periods is available. On that basis predictions are made regarding the numbers of submitted and passed motions. Moreover, a new classification is introduced in order to be able to group motions based on the intended purpose. Also predictions are made about this. The results show that, in line with expectations, fewer motions are proposed on issues where the negotiation space is limited, but this effect is not significant. However, there are significant findings with regard to motions that have passed. Where negotiation space is smaller, fewer motions pass than with respect to topics where the negotiation space is greater. As regards the different types of motions, the research gives unexpected, but interesting, results.     

House price convergence: Evidence from US state and metropolitan area panels

We study house price convergence in panels of US states and metropolitan areas. Our analysis is centered on three issues. First, we test whether the US house prices are converging over time using log t convergence test by Phillips and Sul (2007). The test results suggest that there is little evidence of overall convergence. The second issue is to investigate the possibility of a convergence club where the cross-sectional dispersion of house prices of the club members decreases over time. We utilize a clustering algorithm and the results support that there is strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs. Finally, we examine the general characteristics of the various convergence and divergence subgroups as well as some important driving forces of convergence clubs. We find that housing supply regulation together with climate are important determinants of convergence club membership.     

On the design and efficiency of a participating growth bill

A Participating Growth Bill (PGB) is an innovative hybrid financial vehicle employed by Western institutions and governments in lieu of short-term debt instruments. This study proposes PGB to be considered as an alternative way of raising funds for open market operations by the governments of Muslim countries constrained by religious regulations against fixed-interest debt (ribawi) financing. The security (PGB) is developed using partial equilibrium analysis under the assumption that the assets backing the financial package do not trade in a secondary market—a situation which invalidates the risk-neutral pricing of the well-known Black and Scholes (1973) model. The study finally demonstrates the efficiency of a PGB over a conventional (ribawi) debt vehicle thereby providing results contrary to assertions of the (i) Capital Structure Irrelevance Theorem (see Modigliani and Miller, 1958) and (ii) Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) (see Sharpe, 1964).     

House price synchronization across the US states: The role of structural oil shocks

This paper analyzes the impact of disentangled oil shocks on the synchronization in housing price movements across all the US states plus DC. Using a Bayesian dynamic factor model, the house price movements are decomposed into national, regional, and state-specific factors. We then study the impact of oil-specific supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and global demand shocks on the national factor using linear and nonlinear local projection methods. The impulse response analyses suggest that oil-specific supply and consumption demand shocks are most important in driving the national factor. Moreover, as observed from the regime-specific local projection model, these two shocks are found to have a relatively stronger impact in a bearish rather than a bullish national housing market. Our results have important policy implications.     

浅谈当前土地房屋征收工作困难的几点思考

本文对当前土地房屋征收难的原因进行深入分析,尝试提出解决当前土地房屋征收难的具体措施。     

浅谈实行工程量清单招标的问题及对策

文章分析了实行工程量清单招标存在的一些问题,并从行政主管部门、招投标方以及招标代理机构的不同角度出发,提出了解决这些问题的对策。     

试论房屋征收与补偿的正当程序——兼论《国有土地上房屋征收与补偿条例》中的程序性规定

《国有土地上房屋征收与补偿条例》在原则和具体征收和补偿过程中均强调了正当法律程序的理念。文章在介绍正当法律程序的渊源和四大要素基础上,指出《国有土地上房屋征收与补偿条例》中在程序上出现的四大亮点,也分析了新条例贯彻正当法律程序理念不足的地方。     

论内部审计的独立性

独立性是内部审计的灵魂,是审计工作质量的保证.现阶段我国企业在内部审计方面存在着制约内部审计独立性因素.解决诸种因素,加强内部审计的独立性必须加强内部审计的法律制度建设;建立独立、健全的内部审计机构;保证审计人员的独立性;提高内部审计人员的业务素质.     

房价涨幅与CPI涨幅的关系研究

人们感觉房价涨跌与CPI涨跌幅度不一致的主要原因,是CPI计算过程中没有直接包括房价因素。实质上房价涨幅与CPI涨幅之间既相互促进又相互制约,二者通过居住类因素的价格变动来实现相互促进,通过政府采取的抑制通货膨胀、防范金融危机措施来实现相互制约。目前既要调整CPI计算方案,又要建立房价涨幅与CPI涨幅的组合控制标准。     

论房屋建筑工程施工技术与现场施工管理

房屋建筑工程建设速度和规模持续扩大,改善了人们的居住条件,推动了建筑行业的快速发展.房屋建筑工程质量是社会各界所关注的重点问题,施工技术的应用以及现场施工管理是影响工程质量的关键因素,基于此,本文分析了房屋建筑工程施工技术要点以及现场施工有效管理措施,以期可以为房屋建筑工程的开展和建设提供有效参考意见.     

论房屋建筑工程施工技术与现场施工管理

房屋建筑工程建设速度和规模持续扩大,改善了人们的居住条件,推动了建筑行业的快速发展.房屋建筑工程质量是社会各界所关注的重点问题,施工技术的应用以及现场施工管理是影响工程质量的关键因素,基于此,本文分析了房屋建筑工程施工技术要点以及现场施工有效管理措施,以期可以为房屋建筑工程的开展和建设提供有效参考意见.     

浅析房贷还款方案对购房者的影响

现如今,大部分人群通过银行贷款买房,却少有人熟悉还款方案的制定。事实上,不同的还款方案可能产生很大的利息差额。本文结合兰州市城区一实例,分析三种常见的还款方案,得出不同的还款方案下利息的差额,使更多购房者意识到还款方式的重要性,为其制定还款方案时提出一些建议。     

On the origins of land use regulations: Theory and evidence from US metro areas

We model residential land use constraints as the outcome of a political economy game between owners of developed and owners of undeveloped land. Land use constraints benefit the former group via increasing property prices but hurt the latter via increasing development costs. In this setting, more desirable locations are more developed and, as a consequence of political economy forces, more regulated. These predictions are consistent with the patterns we uncover at the US metropolitan area level.     

浅谈工程施工前期安全风险评估的重要性

随着社会进步、科技的飞速发展及现代化程度的提高,工程建设项目的规模、复杂度显著增加。施工过程中存在人、机、环境等的未知或不确定因素,必然给项目施工安全造成一定程度的安全隐患,造成人员伤害和财产损失。因此,对工程施工前安全风险进行科学、准确的识别,过程中如何防范和加强过程控制是十分必要的。     

加强政治思想工作 促进水利经济发展

思想政治工作是水利经济工作的生命线。离开了坚持不懈的思想政治工作,水利经济的发展就会成为无像之水,无本之木。思想政治工作是一项系统工程,只有像抓水利经济和水利建设一样抓思想政治工作,才能使水利行业思想政治工作更深、更实、路子更宽,并与水利经济相辅相成,互相促进,为水利产业化的进程提供保证。