Can regional policy in a federation improve economic efficiency?

In the European Union and in many federal and non-federal countries, the central government pays subsidies to poor regions. These subsidies are often seen as a redistributive measure which comes at the cost of an efficiency loss. This paper develops an economic rationale for regional policy based on economic efficiency. We consider a model of a federation consisting of a rich and a poor region. The economy is characterized by imperfect competition in goods markets and unemployment. Firms initially produce in the rich region but may relocate their production to the poor region. We show that a subsidy on investment in the poor region unambiguously increases welfare if labour markets are competitive. If there is unemployment in both regions, the case for regional subsidies is weaker.     

Ex-post efficient permit markets: a detailed analysis

This paper provides a detailed analysis of ex-post efficient permit markets. After a short review of institutional designs that can achieve ex-post efficiency under uncertainty and asymmetric information, we analyze the effects of an ex-post efficient regulation on the expected costs of the regulated firms, on their investment behavior, and on the incentives for strategic behavior on imperfectly competitive permit markets. Also we inquire about the budget effects of the regulation. Our results show that ex-post efficient permit markets have considerable benefits beside the direct increase in expected social welfare.      

Bequests as signals: Implications for fiscal policy

This paper explores how bequests affect redistributive fiscal policies. The main premise underlying our approach is that bequests act as a signal of parental affection. It is shown that private transfers in the form of bequests may not offset public transfers to a significant extent, even though such private transfers are altruistically motivated and are strictly positive for all but a negligible set of households. This is notable since these conditions are normally believed to yield a fully offsetting response (Ricardian equivalence). We explicitly identify circumstances under which the departure from Ricardian equivalence is large. Notably, the departure may be quite large even when our model is observationally very close to one in which Ricardian equivalence is known to hold (in the sense that children care very little about parental affection).     

Viewpoint: Innovations in the theory and practice of redistribution policy

Abstract We present a survey of key results from second‐best optimal redistribution theory and their implications for tax‐transfer policy. The core results include the Corlett‐Hague theorem, the Deaton conditions, the production‐efficiency theorem, the Atkinson‐Stiglitz theorem, and the Mirrlees‐Saez characterization of the optimal non‐linear income tax system. These have been augmented in recent years by optimal participation tax rates, the implications of involuntary unemployment, the use of unconventional instruments, such as minimum wages, in‐kind transfer, and workfare, and the optimal taxation of capital income and bequests.     

Clusters and comparative advantage: Implications for industrial policy

Cases of industrial agglomeration or “clusters” arise in the presence of industry-specific and local externalities, also called Marshallian externalities. The standard argument is that such externalities may justify a policy of infant-industry protection to allow and encourage clusters to emerge. In this paper I explore this carefully, and show that different policy implications emerge under a more realistic modeling of clusters. In particular, rather than distorting prices to promote clusters in “advanced sectors” that may exhibit strong clustering possibilities, countries should focus instead on promoting clustering in current sectors, which have revealed to have the strongest comparative advantage. Import substitution is not a proper way to achieve this.     

Airline networks as joint goods: Implications for competition policy

This article derives a model of airline services as joint goods. Using this model, the article shows how the existence of higher fares in certain hub routes may imply the market has generated a solution to the problem of covering joint costs by having a larger proportion of those costs come from hub routes, rather than the existence of any general market failure. The model is then used to make recommendations for competition policy.     

Political bargaining in a federation: Buchanan meets Coase

In recent decades, the issues of federalism and political integration have gained prominence in public debate as well as in the academic realm. A frequently made point is that allowing free secession may protect the minority's interests, thus providing it with an incentive to enter the federation. This paper explicitly considers the political process in the federation arguing that the option to secede may distort the political choices made by the individual regions to improve their bargaining positions. As a result, the allocation of resources in the federation could well end up being inefficient and unattractive for the minority region. In contrast, limiting the secession possibilities by requiring the consent of a majority of voters through a regional referendum, rather than leaving it to the discretion of the legislature, restores efficiency.     

Interest group politics in a federation

The optimal degree of decentralization depends on the importance of inter-state externalities of local policies. We show that inter-state externalities are determined by the spatial distribution of interest groups within the country. Interest groups who have multi-state scope internalize inter-state externalities to a larger extent than the lobbyists with interests within a single state. We use variation in the geographic boundaries of politically-powerful industrial interests to estimate the effect of inter-state externalities on firm performance. Using firm-level panel data from a peripheralized federation, Russia in 1996–2003, we show that, controlling for firm fixed effects, the performance of firms substantially improves with an increase in the number of neighboring regions under influence of multi-regional business groups compared to the number influenced by local business groups. Our findings have implications for the literatures on federalism and on international trade as trade restrictions are a common source of inter-state externalities.     

Quantifying economic sustainability: Implications for free-enterprise theory, policy and practice

In a previous paper (Ulanowicz, Goerner, Lietaer, and Gomez, 2009), we combined thermodynamic, network, and information theoretic measures with research on real-life ecosystems to create a generalized, quantitative measure of sustainability for any complex, matter/energy flow system. The current paper explores how this metric and its related concepts can be used to provide a new narrative for long-term economic health and sustainability. Based on a system's ability to maintain a crucial balance between two equally essential, but complementary factors, resilience and efficiency, this generic explanation of the network structure needed to maintain long-term robustness provides the missing theoretical explanation for what constitutes healthy development and the mathematical means to differentiate it quantitatively from mere growth. Matching long-standing observations of sustainable vitality in natural ecosystems and living organisms, the result is a much clearer, more accurate understanding of the conditions needed for free-enterprise networks to produce the kind of sustainable vitality everyone desires, one which enhances and reliably maintains the health and well-being of all levels of global civilization as well as the planet.     

Interrogating inclusive growth: Implications for conceptualisation,measurement and policy practice

The idea that economic growth ought to be inclusive—that governments and economic policy makers should concern themselves with not just the “pace but also the pattern” of growth—has gained considerable traction in recent years. Actors ranging from local, state, regional and national governments to civic or non-government actors to multinational corporations have embraced the rhetoric of inclusive growth, with many also developing their own suite of corresponding policy, strategy, or measurement approaches. Despite—or perhaps even because of—its popularity and proliferation, there is very little agreement around what inclusive growth actually is, how and at what spatial scale it should be pursued, and how outcomes ought to be measured. In this paper, we provide a conceptual synopsis of how and where inclusive growth emerged, what its aims are, and how it is understood and measured by its many different practitioners. We conclude with an assessment of whether this potentially valuable concept can be refined and incorporated into a unified and useful framework to inform policy and decision making.     

Environmental prospects for the next century: Implications for long-term policy and research strategies

This report examines environmental prospects for the twenty-first century, and then suggests some appropriate long-term management strategies and research priorities. A few current global trends (e.g., increasing concentrations of atmospheric trace gases, population, agricultural production) are practically irreversible over the next couple of decades due to inertias in the systems involved. However, there are bound to be nonlinearities, discontinuities, and surprises in the behavior of many environmental and socioeconomic systems. In fact, the main challenge for managers, policy analysts, and politicians is to develop strategies that are robust in response to these surprises, exploiting the opportunities as well as softening the shocks that may arise.The main characteristics of such strategies are that they be adaptive, interdisciplinary, and cross-sectoral. As pointed out by Harvey Brooks [2], we must avoid partial solutions that may be optimal for a particular sector or decade, but which are far from optimal for the biosphere as a whole over the long term.     

Optimal monetary policy regime for oil producing developing economies: Implications for post-war Iraq

This paper theoretically investigates optimal monetary policy regime for oil producing developing countries. We analyze credibility and reputation of the Central Bank and macroeconomic dynamics under alternative monetary policy regimes. We construct a detailed and realistic model that can be used to analyze macroecomic structure and expectation dynamics of an oil producing open economy. We take into account the asymmetric information between the public and the central bank and theoretically investigate how this asymmetric information impacts the real economy and the credibility of the central bank. The simulation results indicate that central bank achieves higher credibility and lower inflation under dollarization and higher output levels under currency board regime. The model constructed in this paper has many policy implications for oil producing open economies. Using the implications of the model, we make monetary policy regime recommendations for post-war Iraq.     

Choosing between imperfect proxies for a corrective tax

Choices are sometimes distorted by internalities or externalities. This paper considers a setting in which the distortion cannot be taxed directly, and asks how a policymaker should choose a proxy variable to tax instead. We derive a criterion for when one proxy should be preferred to another, and consider a range of factors with implications for this criterion. These factors are (i) sensitivity to the tax rate, (ii) how accurately the taxed variable approximates the distorted variable, (iii) susceptibility to offsetting behavior, and (iv) consumer heterogeneity. Our analysis is illustrated with a comparison between ad valorem and volumetric taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages.     

Liquidity risk and financial competition: Implications for asset prices and monetary policy

This paper studies the implications of banking competition for capital markets and monetary policy. In particular, I develop a two-sector monetary growth model in which a group of agents is exposed to liquidity shocks and money is essential. Banks insure depositors against such risk and invest in the economy's assets. In this setting, I compare an economy with a perfectly competitive banking sector to an economy with a fully concentrated financial sector. Unlike previous work, banks can have market power in both deposits and capital markets. Compared to a perfectly competitive financial sector, I demonstrate that a monopolistic banking system can have substantial adverse consequences on capital formation, assets prices, and the degree of risk sharing. Furthermore, multiple steady-states can emerge and the economy becomes subject to poverty traps. More importantly, market power in financial markets may overturn the Tobin effect present under a perfectly competitive financial sector. This necessarily happens in economies with high degrees of liquidity risk and low levels of capital formation.     

Government debt spillovers and creditworthiness in a federation

Estimates are presented for the impact of debt accumulation by the central and subcentral governments of a federation on the creditworthiness of other federation member governments. The estimates, calculated using an ordered probit model and Canadian provincial data, indicate that debt accumulation by the central government has reduced the creditworthiness of indebted provincial governments. Interprovincial debt accumulation effects are negative but relatively small, except for the debt of the largest province, which has a strong positive effect on the creditworthiness of the other provinces. These findings may have implications for other federations and associated jurisdictions, such as the European Union. JEL Classification: H63, F36
Les effets de retombée de la dette gouvernementale et la cote de crédit dans une fédération. On calcule l'impact de l'accumulation de la dette par les gouvernements fédéral et sub-fédéraux dans une fédération sur la cote de crédit des autres gouvernements de la fédération. Ces calibrations, à l'aide d'un modèle probit en utilisant les données provinciales canadiennes, montrent que l'accumulation de la dette par le gouvernement central a réduit la cote de crédit des gouvernements provinciaux endettés. Les effets trans-provinciaux de l'accumulation de la dette sont négatifs mais relativement faibles, sauf dans le cas de la province la plus grande, laquelle a un fort effet sur la cote de crédit des autres provinces. Ces résultats peuvent avoir des implications pour d'autres fédérations comme l'Union Européenne.     

Gains from commitment in monetary policy: Implications of the cost channel

Many empirical studies find robust evidence that marginal cost of production directly depends on the nominal rate of interest. This relationship induces a cost channel for monetary policy transmission. Although the empirical literature provides ample evidence for a cost channel, studies that evaluate the welfare gains from monetary policy commitment have so far entirely ignored its presence. This study shows that, overlooking the cost channel, one significantly underestimates the welfare gains from monetary policy commitment. I find that there is a robust positive relationship between the size of the cost channel and welfare gains from monetary policy commitment. Using a version of the new Keynesian model calibrated to the US economy, I find that failure to take into account the presence of a cost channel leads to an understatement of the gains from monetary policy commitment by an amount equivalent to a 0.48 percentage points permanent cut in quarterly inflation.     

Environmental decisions and theories of justice: Implications for economic analysis and policy practice

This article examines the implications of pluralism for environmental decision-making and governance in the globalizing world. It first discusses how environmental governance is needed to deal with environmental conflicts and interdependencies caused by the attributes of environmental resources and their users. The article argues that globalization engenders large-scale interdependencies and conflicts that involve increasingly heterogeneous individuals and organizations. The article suggests that the resulting radical pluralism will underline the role of justice in providing reasons and justifications for collective environmental decisions and will shift emphasis from distributive justice to procedural justice. The article concludes by discussing solutions that would take justice concerns into account in environmental governance. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A03DH034 00004     

Assessing the total economic value of threatened livestock breeds in Italy: Implications for conservation policy

The total economic value (TEV) of two threatened Italian cattle breeds (Modicana and Maremmana) was investigated using a choice experiment survey. Most respondents (85%) support breed conservation, their stated willingness-to-pay easily justifying EU support. The high landscape maintenance, existence and future option values of both breeds (around 80% of their TEVs) suggest that incentives mechanisms are indeed needed in order to allow farmers to capture some of these public good values and hence motivate them to undertake conservation-related activities. The positive direct use values of both breeds (around 20% of their TEVs) imply that niche product markets aimed at enhancing the private good values associated with conservation could also form elements of a conservation and use strategy for these breeds.     

A review of the spatial economics of non-timber forest product extraction: Implications for policy

Patterns of forest cover and forest degradation determine the size and types of ecosystem services forests provide. Particularly in low-income countries, nontimber forest product (NTFP) extraction by rural people, which provides important resources and income to the rural poor, contributes to the level and pattern of forest degradation. Although recent policy, particularly in Africa, emphasizes forest degradation, relatively little research describes the spatial aspects of NTFP collection that lead to spatial degradation patterns. This paper reviews both the spatial empirical work on NTFP extraction and related forest degradation patterns, and spatial models of behavior of rural people who extract NTFPs from forest. Despite the impact of rural people's behavior on resulting quantities and patterns of forest resources, spatial–temporal models/patterns rarely inform park siting and sizing decisions, econometric assessments of park effectiveness, development projects to support conservation, or REDD protocols. Using the literature review as a lens, we discuss the models' implications for these policies with particular emphasis on effective conservation spending and leakage.     

Accelerated depreciation and the efficacy of temporary fiscal policy: Implications for an inflationary economy

The effect on investment of temporary tax rate changes depends on the age profile of depreciation deductions. If the depreciation allowance schedule is accelerated, then temporary cuts in the corporate tax rate could reduce investment. Inflation causes the age profile of real depreciation deductions to become accelerated and thus could make temporary tax cuts have a contractionary effect on investment. Two currently proposed reforms are shown to exacerbate this effect. Under each of these proposals, temporary tax cuts are likely to have opposite effects on investment in short-lived and long-lived capital, thereby complicating the conduct of countercyclical fiscal policy.