Measuring and combating corruption

Corruption thrives on misinformation and secrecy. In the Global Corruption Report 2003 , Transparency International ( TI ) puts access to information at the top of its agenda. TI catalogues a climate of mistrust that is working against the interests of shareholders and employees in the market economy, and against the interests of the developing world when economic and business decisions are taken on the basis of the size of a kickback rather than quality, competence and value for money. A sustainable and prosperous society requires a national integrity system based on the rule of law, checks and balances, and a thriving independent media and civil society.     

Inequality, corruption and the informal sector

The marginal impact of corruption on income inequality is shown to be a linear function of the size of the informal sector. This implies that anti-corruption policies alone are unlikely to reduce inequality in countries with a large informal sector.     

Economic uncertainty and corruption: evidence from a large cross-country data set

A vast amount of research has considered numerous causes and correlates of corruption. Also, there have been many studies of the consequences of various forms of uncertainty. However, exploration of the nexus between economic uncertainty and corruption appears scarce. After providing an intuitive and heuristic linkage between general economic uncertainty and corruption, this article uses a large cross-country data set to augment a fairly standard model with simple proxies for uncertainty and to investigate how economic uncertainty might affect the prevalence of corruption. In addition, a quantile-regression framework is used to judge how the strength of various covariates may differ with the level of corruption. Seven main points emerge from the estimates. First, economic uncertainty is associated positively with corruption, and the relation seems to be robust across measures of uncertainty and corruption. Second, quantile-regression estimates indicate considerable parametric heterogeneity across the distribution of corruption. Third, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has the expected corruption-mitigating role. Fourth, increased political rights and civil liberties also appear to lower corruption. Fifth, greater government consumption is associated with lower corruption. Sixth, while the hyperinflation dummy lacks significance in most OLS regressions, its significance varies across the distribution of corruption. Seventh, neither police force nor government subsidies shows significance, but transition economies have more corruption.     

Selection in migration and return migration: Evidence from micro data

Linked micro data from Sweden and Finland confirm predictions of migrant selection theory. Migrants are found to be negatively and return migrants positively selected on observable skills, whereas there is only minor selection on unobservable skills.     

Oil rents, corruption, and state stability: Evidence from panel data regressions

We examine the effects of oil rents on corruption and state stability exploiting the exogenous within-country variation of a new measure of oil rents for a panel of 30 oil-exporting countries during the period 1992–2005. We find that an increase in oil rents significantly increases corruption, significantly deteriorates political rights while at the same time leading to a significant improvement in civil liberties. We argue that these findings can be explained by the political elite having an incentive to extend civil liberties but reduce political rights in the presence of oil windfalls to evade redistribution and conflict. We support our argument documenting that there is a significant effect of oil rents on corruption in countries with a high share of state participation in oil production while no such link exists in countries where state participation in oil production is low.     

政府规模、市场化与地区腐败

Using a panel data at the provincial level during the period of 1989–2004, this paper examines the effects of social and economic factors such as government scale, privatization, openness, and education on regional corruption. Applying a fixed-effect model and IV estimation, we find that government size positively affects the incidence rate of corruption, and the effect becomes larger with the increase in the size of the core department of the government. 1% increase in the core department of the government leads to a 0.68%–1% increase in the number of corruption cases. While the proportion of FDI is positively associated with the corruption of regional officials, the ratio of the import and export trade to GDP is negatively associated with corruption. The impact of privatization on corruption is ambiguous. We also identify the significant impacts of the size and structure of the government expenditure on corruption. __________ Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2008, (11): 16–26     

Public sector efficiency in transition and beyond: evidence from Czech local governments

This article provides the first comparison of public sector efficiency in and beyond transition. We compare the comprehensive efficiency scores of 202 local governments in the Czech Republic in the transition period of 1995–1998 and the post-transition period of 2005–2008 and identify the period-specific determinants of local government efficiency. We observe convergence to the best practice frontier but also a growing efficiency gap between small and large governments. In both periods, municipal size and the main fiscal variables qualitatively affect efficiency in the same direction and in line with the fiscal stress hypothesis. Left-wing ideology is only robustly associated with cost inefficiency in the transition period. The geographic distances begin to matter for efficiency only in the post-transition period.     

Public sector and economic growth: the Greek experience

Over the past two decades there has been an increase in the relative size of the public sector, accompanied by a decline in the growth performance of the Greek economy. In an attempt to highlight the contribution of the government size to growth, an analytical framework is developed, incorporating the possibility that marginal factor productivities are not equal in the public and private sectors. Econometric analysis utilizing this framework points to a negative relationship between government size and economic growth. This seems to derive, in part, from intersectoral diseconomies generated by the growing share of deft-financed government activities.     

Public sector motivation and development failures

This paper provides a theoretical analysis of the relationship between public sector motivation and development. In the model the public sector produces a public good and workers are heterogeneous in terms of public sector motivation (PSM). Wages in the private sector increase with the quality of the public good. In this context, public sector wage premia (PSWP) have two opposite effects: low PSWP helps screen workers with PSM into the public sector, while high PSWP helps motivate workers to be honest. Raising PSWP may not improve the quality of governance and multiple equilibria might arise. The model highlights that the relative importance of workers selection and provision of ”on the job” incentives in the public sector varies in systematic ways with wages in the private sector. We provide anecdotal and original empirical evidence consistent with the theoretical predictions and discuss some policy implications for public sector reforms in developing countries.     

Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited

An increasing number of longitudinal data sets collect expectations information regarding a variety of future individual level events and decisions, providing researchers with the opportunity to explore expectations over micro variables in detail. We present a theoretical framework and an econometric methodology to use that type of information to test the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis in models of individual behavior. This RE assumption at the micro level underlies a majority of the research in applied fields in economics, and it is the common foundation of most work in dynamic models of individual behavior. We present tests of three different types of expectations using two different panel data sets that represent two very different populations. In all three cases we cannot reject the RE hypothesis. Our results support a wide variety of models in economics, and other disciplines, that assume rational behavior. We would like to acknowledge outstanding research assistance from Huan Ni. The Michigan Retirement Research Center (MRRC) and the TIAA-CREF Institute made this research possible through their financial support of two related projects. Benítez-Silva also acknowledges the financial support from NIH grant AG1298502 on a related project, and also from the Fundación BBVA, and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology through project number SEJ2005-08783-C04-01, and wants to thank the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland and the Department of Economics at Universitat Pompeu Fabra for their hospitality during the completion of this paper. Three anonymous referees provided excellent comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors are the authors’.     

Compositional data analysis and zeros in micro data

The application of compositional data analysis methods in economics has some attraction. The methodology relies upon the use of 'log-ratios' in the statistical analysis. Such an approach is not possible when the data to be analysed include observations where the observed budget share is zero. We, therefore, consider and extend the methods of compositional data analysis in the situation where the data to be analysed include observations where the observed budget share is zero. The modified compositional data methods are discussed both in statistical terms and through potential economic interpretations of the method. Further, the modified methodology is applied to the 1988-89 Australian Household Expenditure Survey yielding estimates for a system of Engel curves.     

The behaviour of producer prices: evidence from French PPI micro data

This paper provides some new empirical findings for how French producers set prices. We used the micro data that composes the producer and business-service price indices from 1994 to 2005. First we address how producer prices are collected. Then we present the main characteristics of how producers change their prices: they are modified infrequently and in small amounts. Also, a behavioural heterogeneity across sectors is observed. Business-service prices change less often than industrial producer prices. The data corroborates both time and state-dependent model predictions. Taylor contracts are not unusual, but a firm’s prices will also react to its economic situation. Nevertheless, the most relevant models, to explain producer price rigidity, are time-dependent.

“The fact that some prices are rigid or sticky, while others are variable, has attracted a good deal of comments from economists in recent years” Tucker (1938)

This study was conducted in the context of the Eurosystem Inflation Persistence Network. Data were processed under the responsibility of INSEE in the context of an agreement between INSEE and the Banque de France (20B-21B-E301/R05019/2005).     

Price setting behaviour in Latvia: Econometric evidence from CPI micro data

This paper discovers the driving forces behind Latvian firms' decisions to adjust prices by using various panel logit models, which explain the probability of observing price change by a broad set of exogenous variables. The results show that the consumer price formation in Latvia is a combination of both state-dependent and time-dependent behaviours. On the one hand, frequency of price changes depends on inflation, demand conditions, and the size of last price changes. On the other hand, we observe some elements of time-dependent price setting like price truncation and strong seasonal pattern. We also find several important differences in the price setting behaviour in cases of price increases and decreases. The fact that frequency of price changes in Latvia depends on inflation as well as demand and supply conditions allows for faster price adjustment process in the event of high distortions in the economy.     

ICT and resilience in times of crisis: evidence from cross-country micro moments data

ABSTRACT

ICT-intensive firms are often found to have a better performance than their non-ICT-intensive counterparts. Along with investing in ICT capital they have to adapt their production and business processes in order to reap the potentials implied by the use of ICT. Are these firms also more resilient in times of crisis? We study this question by exploiting a novel and unique data set from the Micro Moments Database. Covering 12 countries, 7 industries and the period from 2001 to 2010, the data allow us to distinguish between ICT-intensive and non-ICT-intensive firms within industries. We find evidence that indeed during the crisis in 2008 and 2009, ICT-intensive firms were hit less hard with respect to their productivity. This holds in particular for firms from service industries. Moreover, ICT-intensive firms were also more successful in introducing process innovations during that period which could explain their better productivity performance compared to non-ICT intensive firms.     

Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice

This paper reviews econometric methods for dynamic panel data models, and presents examples that illustrate the use of these procedures. The focus is on panels where a large number of individuals or firms are observed for a small number of time periods, typical of applications with microeconomic data. The emphasis is on single equation models with autoregressive dynamics and explanatory variables that are not strictly exogenous, and hence on the Generalised Method of Moments estimators that are widely used in this context. Two examples using firm-level panels are discussed in detail: a simple autoregressive model for investment rates; and a basic production function.JEL Classification: C23This paper is prepared for a special issue of the Portuguese Economic Journal. My understanding of this subject has benefitted immeasurably from the input of colleagues, notably Manuel Arellano, Richard Blundell, Costas Meghir, Steve Nickell and Frank Windmeijer. I thank Joao Santos Silva, Frank Windmeijer and other participants at the Cemmap/ESRC Econometric Study Group workshop in London on 22 February 2002 for detailed comments on an earlier draft. Financial support from the ESRC Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy is gratefully acknowledged.     

Public sector performance measurement and stakeholder support

Over the past several decades there has been dramatically increased attention paid to measuring the performance of public sector and nonprofit organizations in the United States and elsewhere. Recent research has indicated that public sector and nonprofit organizations are responsive to performance measurement in both productive and unproductive ways. However, it is not yet known how stakeholders respond to this measurement. This paper makes use of a unique panel survey dataset of the population of elementary and middle schools in the state of Florida to directly investigate this question. We exploit the fact that Florida changed its school grading system in 2002 and study the degree to which private contributions to schools are responsive to the information contained in school grades. We find evidence that school grades can have substantial effects on a school's ability to obtain private contributions. We also observe that schools serving different clienteles are treated differently in response to changes in school grades.     

Taxation and corruption: theory and firm-level evidence from Uganda

This article develops a simple framework to analyse the negotiation over bribe and tax payments during the tax collection process. We show that the larger the bribe a firm offers to a tax collector, the larger the tax rebate it gets. More particularly, we show that the negotiation over bribe and tax payments hinges on four other factors: firms’ official liabilities, detection, firms’ negotiation power and red tape costs imposed on firms. Some of the predictions from the theoretical model are tested using firm-level data from Uganda. We find that bribe and tax payments are inversely related, thereby supporting the hypothesis of a negotiation taking place between firms and tax collectors. In particular, a 1% point increase in average bribe payments per employee is associated with a 7% point reduction in average amount of tax payments per employee. Results are robust to various instruments dealing with the endogenous relationship between bribes and taxes.     

CEO turnover, firm performance, and enterprise reform in China: Evidence from micro data

In this paper, we use unique data on China's listed firms from 1998 to 2002 to show that CEO turnover is significantly and inversely related to firm performance, although the magnitude of the relationship is modest. In addition, we find that this turnover-performance link is weaker for listed firms that are still controlled by the state and those that have a relatively weak non-state controlling shareholder. In contrast, the appointment of independent directors enhances the turnover-performance link. Moreover, the listing suspension mechanism, adopted by China's securities regulatory agency, appears to be effective in improving the turnover-performance tie. Finally, listed firms with CEOs holding additional positions among the controlling shareholders have a weaker turnover-performance link. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 796–817.     

Public sector employment and the distribution of income

In this paper a simple general equilibrium model is presented to examine the impact of three forces on the distribution of (labor) income: (i) changes in educational composition of the labor force; (ii) changes in productivity of different educational groups; and (iii) changes in the volume of public sector employment. A numerical illustration of the model based on observed and derived figures for the Netherlands suggests that the impact of a growing public sector on the distribution of income might very well be substantial, resulting into more inequality of income, while the combination of the other two forces has resulted in less inequality of income.     

Environmental performance,corruption and economic growth: global evidence using a new data set

This study investigates the relationship between environmental performance, corruption and economic growth using panel data of 87 countries covering the period from 2002 to 2012. The Environmental Performance Index is used for the first time to evaluate the environmental quality on economic growth. By employing both ‘static’ and ‘dynamic’ panel models, we find that environmental performance is positively related to economic growth and is more significant in non-Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) countries. Moreover, when corruption is incorporated, the empirical estimation results indicate that although lower corruption helps economic growth in non-OECD countries, the negative coefficients of the three interactive terms show that the positive effect of environment performance on economic growth will drop, while greater environmental performance combined with natural resource abundance inevitably leads to inefficient bureaucracies and hence disadvantageous economic growth. As a result, policymakers in non-OECD countries should carefully ensure better government quality when they exhibit strong environmental performance so as to avoid any disadvantageous impact upon economic growth.