Policy Selectivity Forgone: Debt and Donor Behavior in Africa

We assess the dynamics behind the high net resource transfersby donors and creditors to Sub-Saharan African countries. Analyzingthe determinants of overall net transfers for a panel of 37recipient countries in 1978–98, we find that country policiesmattered little. Donors—especially bilateral donors—actuallymade greater transfers to countries with high debt, largelyowed to multilateral creditors, when policies were "bad." Weconclude that comprehensive debt relief has the potential, thoughnot the certainty, to restore selectivity in support of goodpolicies. That would make development assistance more effectivegoing forward—and increase public support in donor countries.     

Financial services in an increasingly integrated global financial market

This paper discusses aspects of global financial services. As part of financial globalisation, financial institutions have evolved both nationally and internationally. FDI is becoming an important vehicle for multinational banks to enter developing countries. This in turn is changing the composition of trade in financial services. The experience of regional integration in Europe and the emergence of large multinational European banks signal a new era of global competition and consolidation of financial institutions. Home bias in international financial services is much less where financial integration is taking place. With financial globalisation, one should expect more diversification of ownership of multinational banks around the world, particularly when China and India are now able to have strategic investment in some of the key investment banks around the world. Financial globalisation requires stronger and more effective international institutions as a way of monitoring the activities of multinational financial institutions at both the national and international levels.     

The non-neutrality of debt in investment timing: a new NPV rule

Summary Limited liability debt financing of irreversible investments can affect investment timing through an entrepreneur’s option value, even after compensating a lender for expected default losses. This non-neutrality of debt arises from an entrepreneur’s unique investment opportunity, and it is shown in a standard model of irreversible investment that includes the equilibrium effect of a competitive lending sector. The analysis is partial, in that it takes as exogenously given an entrepreneur’s use of debt. Intuitively, limited liability lowers downside risk for the entrepreneur by truncating the lower tail of risks, and lowers the investment threshold. Compensating the lender for expected default losses reduces project profitability to the entrepreneur, and increases the investment threshold. The net effect is negative, because lower downside risk has an additional impact on the option value of delaying investment. The standard NPV rule in real options theory implicitly assumes debt to be neutral. With non-neutrality of debt, an investment threshold is higher than investment cost, but lower than the standard NPV rule. Comparisons with other standard investment thresholds show similar relationships.     

The Relationship between Changes in Fixed Plant Investment and the Likelihood of Emergence from Corporate Financial Distress

Companies experiencing financial distress can attempt to mitigate financial distress through changing the investment in the fixed asset base. Management may choose to expand the asset base in hopes of increasing sales. Alternatively, management may choose to contract the asset base in order to eliminate and/or reduce investment in unprofitable or risky ventures, improve liquidity, reduce earnings volatility, and reduce the need for operating capital.In this study, we examined how observed changes in the investment base affect the likelihood of emergence from a financially distressed condition. We find that, when management chooses to contract the investment in property, plant, and equipment, the likelihood of emergence from financial distress is significantly improved. On the other hand, when management chooses to expand property, plant, and equipment in the face of distress, the distress is only intensified. Our explanation is that companies that choose to contract their fixed asset base in times of trouble are taking steps that will most likely improve their financial condition—they are less likely to need working capital, and can better tolerate increased levels of long-term debt. Conversely, increasing the fixed asset base amplifies the need for working capital, and borrowing money to facilitate the expansion simply increases the necessary uses of that working capital because the debt must be serviced. As a result, companies descend even deeper into financial distress and decrease the likelihood that they will emerge therefrom.     

On the Interaction of Real and Financial Decisions of the Firm Under Uncertainty

This study analyzes the interaction between the optimal level of investment and debt financing. For this purpose, a model is structured in which a firm, facing an uncertain price, has to decide on its optimal level of investment and debt. The amount of investment sets a limit on output whose optimal level is determined after price is realized. The debt involved is risky (there exists a possibility of bankruptcy). The analysis proves that investment and its optimal financing have to be simultaneously determined and that a negative relationship exists between operating and financial leverage. We also demonstrate that as the tax rate increases, optimal capacity decreases and optimal leverage increases. An analysis of the impact of changes in the expected price shows that under some conditions, an increase in expected price would lead to an increase in optimal investment (firm size) and a decrease in optimal debt.     

Do banks have a future?: A study on banking and finance as we move into the third millennium

Are banks special intermediaries? Do they play any unique role in the economy? And if so, will they retain their specialness in the ever-faster changing world of finance? The rapid evolution of finance over the last two decades and the breathtaking “e-age” revolution have persuaded many that, eventually, banks will be indistinguishable from other financial intermediaries since all their functions can, at least as efficiently, be carried out by nonbanks. This study re-explores the issue of the specialness of banks in light of the large existing literature on the subject, and presents an approach which identifies the banks' specialness with their unique capacity to lend out claims on their own debt which the public accepts and uses as money. The study discusses various structural and policy implications deriving from the approach, and draws on it to point to the continuing relevance of banking in a world where nonbanks are taking business away from banks, lending to production has become relatively less important, and the use of e-money may soon be dominating financial transactions.     

Financial instruments with sports betting components: Marketing gimmick or a domain for behavioral finance?

We examine theoretically and experimentally a certain class of new financial instruments which are designed as lotteries on the outcome of prominent sports events like the Soccer World Cup 2006. From a theoretical point of view, sports betting products may be superior to a fixed rate investment because of heterogeneous expectations, risk-loving behavior of investors or additional non-monetary utility components. In comparison to the direct placement of bets at bookmakers’, sports betting products may be preferable in cases of hedonic framing. Our experimental section, however, reveals the limited practical relevance of these theoretical arguments for “average” decision makers. Despite this, financial instruments with sports betting components offer a certain profit potential due to the diversity of preferences across individuals. Summarizing, the issuance of sports betting products may actually be mainly driven by marketing aspects, nevertheless sports betting products may be considered to be “viable” niche products with low cost of capital for banks.     

On the Relationship between Domestic Saving and the Current Account: Evidence and Theory for Developing Countries

We examine the relationship between domestic saving and the current account in developing countries. Our three main findings are that: (i) domestic saving has a small effect on the current account; (ii) domestic saving has a significant positive effect on the trade balance—this effect is much larger than the effect that domestic saving has on the current account; and (iii) domestic saving has a significant negative effect on net-current transfers. We use countries in the SSA region during the period 1980-2009 as a laboratory for an instrumental variables (IV) approach. The IV approach enables to obtain estimates of causal effects. Underlying the IV approach is the significant positive first-stage response of domestic saving to plausibly exogenous annual rainfall: an unanticipated, transitory supply-side shock. We construct a small open-economy DSGE model with debt adjustment costs and endogenous current transfers to match the empirical findings. The model enables to examine the relationship between domestic saving and the current account for different types of shocks. An important message of our paper is that, for developing countries, estimates of the relationship between domestic saving and domestic investment are not informative for answering the question how domestic saving affects a country's accumulation of net foreign assets.     

Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects

In 2007, countries in the euro zone periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and low spreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and, surprisingly, so did the share of the debt held by domestic creditors. Credit was reallocated from the private sector to the public sector, reducing investment and deepening the recessions even further. To account for these facts, we propose a simple model of sovereign risk in which debt can be traded in secondary markets. The model has two key ingredients: creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects. Creditor discrimination arises because, in turbulent times, sovereign debt offers a higher expected return to domestic creditors than to foreign ones. This provides incentives for domestic purchases of debt. Crowding-out effects arise because private borrowing is limited by financial frictions. This implies that domestic debt purchases displace productive investment. The model shows that these purchases reduce growth and welfare, and may lead to self-fulfilling crises. It also shows how crowding-out effects can be transmitted to other countries in the euro zone, and how they may be addressed by policies at the European level.     

Institutional theory and accounting rule choice: an analysis of four US state governments' decisions to adopt generally accepted accounting principles

In this study, we use institutional theory to explore how institutional pressures exerted on four state governments (New York, Michigan, Ohio, Delaware) influenced the decision of these governments to adopt or resist the use of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) for external financial reporting. We identify resource dependence as a potent form of coercive institutional pressure that was associated with early GAAP adoption. We identify three factors that may lead to initial resistance to institutional pressures for change. First, if accounting bureaucrats are not active in professional associations that promote GAAP adoption, they may miss the educational process that we believe is important to early adoption of GAAP. Second, organizational printing may impede GAAP adoption. Third, powerful interests may impede GAAP if the proposed GAAP legislation is expected to alter the existing power relationships. We found that key accounting bureaucrats in New York and Michigan used “compromise” as an initial strategic response to institutional pressures to adopt GAAP, Ohio's key accounting bureaucrat adopted a “defy” strategy, although the political leadership endorsed an “acquiesce” strategy. While Delaware initially employed a “manipulate”strategy with some success. Delaware did not adopt GAAP for external reporting until a political entrepreneur for GAAP emerged in the early 1990s. Our study suggests that all strategic responses to resist institutional pressures for GAAP adoption will ultimately fail because of the potency of the institutional pressures that result from the well organized professional accounting and governmental institutional fields.     

Nonlinear Effects of Debt on Investment: Evidence from Dutch Listed Firms

Abstract

Nonlinear effects of debt on investment are investigated using an unbalanced panel of 94 Dutch listed nonfinancial firms during the period 1985–2000. Evidence shows that the nonlinear relation between debt and investment can be represented by a U curve, which contradicts the financial constraints theory. One possible explanation of the U curve relation between debt and investment may be the debt capital gain in the presence of inflation.     

Applicability Of The Conservatism Accounting Convention in China: Empirical Evidence

“Conservatism” is a widely accepted accounting convention in the industrialized world, but it has long been slated and prohibited in China under the orthodox ideological influences. To date, the conservatism convention has not been fully adopted or implemented in Chinese accounting although the Chinese government has made substantial efforts to reform its accounting system to bridge the gaps between the accounting practices in China and other industrialized countries in recent years. This study has, through a wide range questionnaire survey, empirically investigated the applicability of the conservatism accounting convention in China. We found that the survey respondents (consisted of business accountants, management, government officials, bank loan officers, investment analysts and auditors), in general, held no negative attitudes against the conservatism convention under the changing business environment in the country. There is clear evidence that various interested parties of business accounting would support an expanded adoption of “conservatism” in Chinese accounting. The study findings will facilitate a proper assessment of the future development of accounting standards and practices in China.     

Technological globalisation or national systems of innovation?

Technological innovation is said to be breaking down borders. The internet, the explosion of globalised financial markets, the increased foreign direct investment by transnational corporations—all are portrayed as creating a global market in which the nation state is little more than an anachronism. And yet some economies have been more innovative and dynamic than others, and there seems no reason to believe that these differences in national economic performance will become a thing of the past. On the contrary, with a global market, any competitive advantage will bring larger rewards. So government action to enhance firms' competitive advantage becomes more important, not less. It is within this context that technological globalisation is analysed in this paper. The question is whether such globalisation spells the end of the nation state. The answer is no.     

What determines the composition of a firm's cash reserves?

We investigate what determines variation in the composition of the financial assets that constitute corporate cash reserves and how this variation relates to other key liquidity management practices. The degree to which a firm invests its cash reserves in less liquid, longer-maturity financial assets that earn a higher yield is explained by financial constraints, the ability to accurately forecast short-term liquidity needs, and the firm's likelihood of defaulting on its debt. During years when a firm's cash reserves are required to fund increases in investment or operating expenses the firm transfers funds from less liquid to more liquid financial assets. A firm's decisions relating to the composition of its cash reserves interacts with other key liquidity management practices, such as relying on credit lines for liquidity, extending trade credit or using it as a source of financing, and holding large amounts of inventories. Our findings provide insights on an important component of corporate liquidity management decisions.     

Financialized accounts: Share buy-backs, mark to market and holding the financial line in the S&P 500

In recent years the US corporate sector has deployed more cash from operations to finance the repurchase of outstanding share capital for treasury stock. Shares repurchased for treasury stock can help flatter earnings per share, fund senior management share option compensation schemes and finance corporate acquisitions. In financialized accounts these are now significant transactions which, it is argued, serve the financial interests of managers and investors.The US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) is now demanding a “greater use of fair value measurements in financial statements” with the result that share options and corporate acquisitions will be “marked to market”. This will force a financialized ratchet because managers in the S&P 500 will need step up cash extraction if they are to hold the financial line.     

Are twin currency and debt crises special?

In the literature on currency and banking crises it has become the standard procedure to distinguish pure currency crises, pure banking crises and combined (“twin”) currency and banking crises. We show theoretically and empirically that a similar differentiation should be chosen with regard to currency and debt crises. Twin currency and debt crises differ from both pure currency and pure debt crises in their determinants, course of events, and economic consequences. We find that each type of crises has a unique set of macroeconomic causes. We also identify internal contagion and selection bias effects, which may lead to biased empirical estimates if twin crises are not treated as a specific type of crises. Such a separation allows in significantly improving the efficiency of early warning systems especially for debt and twin crises.     

Callable Bonds: A Risk-Reducing Signalling Mechanism

The theory of financial economics has failed to distinguish advantages of callable bonds from those of short-term debt. This paper shows that either type of borrowing can signal a firm's better prospects but that short-term debt does so at the cost of weakened risk-sharing with capital markets. By issuing either equity or long-term, non-callable debt, a firm with poor investment opportunities will not pool its prospects with those of a better firm. But equity produces superior risk-sharing. Perhaps this explains the almost complete absence of long-term, non-callable bonds from observed corporate capital structures.     

Corporate debt maturity in the MENA region: Does institutional quality matter?

We investigate corporate debt maturity structure in the MENA region and its firm and institutional determinants using a sample of 444 listed firms over the 2003–2011 period, or 3717 firm-year observations. We find a very limited use of long-term debt by MENA firms; long-term debt represents only 3.41% of the typical MENA firm's total debt, which is much less than what is reported in prior literature on other parts of the world. Consistent with the predictions of debt maturity theories and prior empirical findings, we find that leverage, firm size, and asset tangibility are positively associated with the use of more long-term debt while firms facing a higher risk of default tend to use more short-term debt. In addition, we find that better quality institutions lead to the use of more long-term debt in MENA. Specifically, stronger rule of law, better regulatory effectiveness, better legal protection of creditors, and more developed financial intermediaries are associated with greater use of long-term borrowing by MENA firms. Our findings have important policy implications as they illuminate the path toward needed reforms that would enhance MENA firms' access to long-term debt, which may ultimately result in more private investment and jobs.     

Last resort gambles, risky debt and liquidation policy

This paper develops a real option model in which the interaction between debt, liquidation policy and risky investments is studied. We consider a manager who owns the firm and faces the opportunity to invest in risky projects which may boost current profits at the cost of bankruptcy if they turn out to be unsuccessful. These investments are “last resort gambles” in the sense that, if successful, they save the company from insolvency, while, if unsuccessful, they make liquidation unavoidable. It is shown that last resort gambles delay liquidation. We study how the liquidation trigger and the last resort investment decisions are affected by the firm's capital structure.     

房价调控、地方政府债务与宏观经济波动

在地方政府债务高企的背景下,房价调控能否使资本流向非房地产部门？房价调控如果触发地方政府债务违约,宏观政策应如何应对？本文基于中国宏观经济的特征事实,引入地方政府的土地财政行为,将房价变动与地方政府的偿债能力联系起来。研究表明,由于地方政府依赖土地出让和土地抵押贷款筹集收入,房价管控导致的地价下降会带来地方政府收入的下降,直接影响地方政府的偿债能力。如果地方政府债务不出现违约,那么房价管控带来的地价下降会降低地方政府从金融部门获得的抵押融资额,使非基建部门的融资成本下降,非基建部门投资和产出上升。而如果调控房价带来的地价下降导致地方政府出现债务违约,金融部门资产受损,使金融中介减少贷款和提高贷款成本,带来整个社会的信贷紧缩,经济中各个部门的产出大幅下降。进一步的政策分析表明,有必要在避免地方政府债务违约的同时,使用财政资金补充银行资本金等多种方式稳定金融中介的资产负债表,从而将房价调控对经济的负面影响程度降到最低。