Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series: historical perspective and future developments

This paper provides a retrospective on the modelling of trends and cycles in economic time series and considers where the research agenda currently stands and where future developments might lie. A brief survey of the early empirical research on trends and cycles is first provided before attention is focused on four papers published in 1961—our ‘annus mirabilis’ of trend and cycle modelling—which we argue have been ‘prime movers’ in various aspects of research in this area. The links from these papers to current research issues are then teased out before the likely future directions of research in both theoretical and applied aspects of the modelling of trends and cycles are considered.

Slotting allowances: a time series analysis of aggregate effects over three decades

Slotting fees and related discounts are important but controversial mechanisms for obtaining shelf space in marketing channels for consumer packaged goods. The theoretical field is divided between the efficient market and the market power schools of thought. Results from empirical studies and analytical models point in different directions. This paper analyzes trends in key macro economic variables to see if the patterns are more consistent with an underlying market efficiency model vs. a market power one. The data span 30+ years and focus on retailers in the marketing channel for food and kindred products. The variables studied include new product introductions, retail selling area, consumer price indices, profitability, cost of goods sold and selling expenditures. Efficient market explanations do not fare well in the analyses in comparison with market power explanations for practically all the variables studied. The paper conlcudes with recommendations for regulators and retail management.     

制度变迁、二元经济转型与我国经济增长：一种回归分析与因果推导

从总体上讲,我国近些年来的经济增长应是制度转轨、对外开放与二元经济转型等因素相互作用与协同发展的结果;在我国的经济增长过程中,制度——经济增长论与二元经济发展论可以同时成立;不过,从各因素对经济增长的总量贡献上看,二元经济转型的贡献要远大于其他因素。这也即说明了我国的经济增长不仅享受了渐进式的制度变迁的好处,而且也享受到了转轨的“后发优势”。当然,从各种因素对经济增长作用的发展趋势与作用的空间性上看,制约我国未来经济增长的核心经济因素将会从以往的经济制度瓶颈转向产业结构升级与技术进步上。     

UK money demand 1873–2001: a long-run time series analysis and event study

This paper performs a multivariate cointegration analysis of UK money demand 1873–2001, and illustrates how a long-run time series analysis may be conducted on a data set characterized by turbulent episodes and institutional changes. We suggest accounting for the effects of the two world wars by estimating additive data corrections, thereby allowing the propagation of war-time shocks to be fundamentally different from the transmission of peace-time innovations. In addition, the corrected series may be used in counterfactual event studies to assess the impacts of special events. In the empirical analysis we find a single equilibrium relationship relating velocity to opportunity costs, and we identify a significant link between excess money and inflation. After accounting for the turbulent periods, the equilibrium structure is reasonably stable over a period of 130 years. The empirical analysis was carried out using the OxMetrics software, see Doornik (2002). Ox procedures to estimate the vector equilibrium correction model with additive corrections are available from the author upon request.     

中部崛起:中国区域经济新格局

继 90年代中期东南沿海经济起飞之后 ,又一个令人瞩目的板块 :中部 ,正在不声不响中崛起 ,1 999年 ,其许多重要经济指标已接近东南沿海 90年代中期的水平 ,预示着中部经济已完全从中西部板块中脱颖而出并开始进入起飞的前夜。这种新的区域经济格局要求我们制定针对三个不同板块的区域发展政策 ,一是继续加强东部地区发展的政策 ,二是促进中部地区尽快实现起飞的政策 ,三是最近中央提出的西部大开发政策。     

金融危机视角下出口信用保险问题研究：一个法国案例

如何保障出口收汇安全,建立一套良好的风险防范机制,是摆在我们面前的一道新课题.本文分析了国内外的研究现状;指出了我国出口信用保险存在的问题;提出了建立完善的风险评估机制,扩大承保范围,推进品种创新,增强政府支持力度,完善法律制度等对策.     

French versus American consumers’ attachment of value to a product in a common consumption context: A cross-national comparison

This article investigates the influence of French and American national culture on consumer perceptions of productrelated value. Employing means-end theory, hypotheses are developed to predict how French versus American national culture influences the content and structure of consumer value hierachies. Hypotheses are tested using data from in-depth laddering interviews with a matched sample of French and American consumers. The findings support the contention that differences exist in the meaning and relative importance of consumer value hierarchy dimensions across the two national cultures. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that consumption consequences are especially culturally sensitive. Jeffrey W. Overby (joverby@cob.fsu.edu) is an assistant professor of marketing and international business in the Department of Marketing at Florida State University. He holds a doctorate from the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. His research interests focus on customer value determination, service quality, and cross-cultural marketing issues. His work has appeared inInternational Marketing Review and numerous domestic and international conferences, includingProceeding of the 2001 Academy of Marketing Science Annual Conference andProceeding of the Tenth Biennial World Marketing Conference. Sarah Fisher Gardial (sgardial@utk.edu) is an associate professor and associate dean for academic programs in the College of Business Administration at the University of Tennessee. She holds a doctorate from the University of Houston. Her research interests focus on customer value and satisfaction, consumer decision making and information processing, and buyer/seller dyadic relations. Her work has appeared in numerous journals, including theJournal of Consumer Research, theJournal of Advertising, Industrial Marketing Management, and theJournal of Macromarketing. Robert B.Woodruff (rwoodruff@utk.edu) is the Proffitt’s, Inc. Professor of Marketing and head of the Department of Marketing and Logistics at the University of Tennessee. His primary interests are in customer value theory, customer satisfaction theory, and market opportunity analyses, all with applications to customer-value-based marketing strategies. His work has appeared in theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Marketing Research, theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, theJournal of Consumer Research, and theJournal of Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction & Complaining Behavior. He has received two outstanding reviewer awards from theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science.     

理论创新与方法抉择--我国农村社会保障研究的反思与前瞻

当前我国农村社会保障研究需要在制度研究上进行理论创新,在问题研究上进行方法抉择。在制度创新方面,要根据新时期我国农民的分化的现状及其特征,构建以进城务工人员、失地农民和本土农民的不同群体社保模式。在问题研究方面,需要选择不同学科的方法,特别是融合多学科的方法于一体,创新我国农村社会保障研究的方法论。     

Exploring historical economic relationships: two and a half centuries of British interest rates and inflation

In this paper, we use new data and modern time series econometrics to reassess the relationship between interest rates, prices and inflation in Britain across the two and a half centuries from 1750 to 2006 for which reliable data are available. We pay particular attention to monetary regimes that may lead to breaks in the relationship and to associated shifts in the stochastic structure of interest rates and prices. The behaviour of real interest rates is examined in detail and estimates of the expected real rate are calculated using a variety of methods to check for robustness.      

比较优势分析：大连旅游业发展的新思路

当前城市旅游市场间的竞争日趋激烈,面对旅游市场出现的新变化,大连市的旅游业发展需要转变旧思路。利用比较优势理论分析,大连市要立足自身特色旅游资源,并参照国内潜在竞争城市进行比较分析,力争形成具有差异化的市场竞争态势。在充分利用已有的完备的城市旅游基础设施的基础上,大连市要加大对独特地海洋旅游资源优势的利用,开发具有特色的海洋旅游产品,塑造大连本土的浪漫的海洋旅游文化。