Regional price deflators in Poland: evidence from NUTS-2 and NUTS-3 regions

This paper analyzes regional price differentials in Poland at the NUTS-2 and NUTS-3 levels. It applies unique raw-price data and calculates regional purchasing power parity (PPP) deflators for the 16 NUTS-2 regions. It then estimates PPP deflators for the 66 NUTS-3-level regions by applying the multiple imputation approach. Finally, it verifies whether these are intra- or interregional price inequalities that have a greater influence on the overall price inequality level. It is found that the price levels are significantly higher than the average in the better-developed regions and lower in the lagging ones. It is also found that it is the intra- rather than the interregion differentials that influence more the overall inequality level.     

Poverty and crime in 19th century Germany

We estimate the impact of poverty on crime in 19th century Bavaria, Germany. Rainfall is used as an instrumental variable for grain (rye) prices to address econometric identification problems in the existing literature. The rye price was a major determinant of living standards during this period. The rye price has a positive effect on property crime: a one standard deviation increased property crime by 8%. OLS estimates are twice as large as instrumental variable estimates, highlighting the value of our empirical approach. Higher rye prices lead to significantly less violent crime, though, and we argue that higher beer prices, caused by the higher rye prices, are a likely explanation.     

An Almost Ideal Cost of Living Index for Food in Spain Using a Microeconomic Approach and Censored Data

Abstract

A true cost of living (COL) index should compare the cost derived by two consumption levels and two price vectors maintaining the same utility in the two cases. Its application and empirical testing has been, generally, focalized on a temporal perspective. A spatial perspective it is also interesting for economic analysis because it allows for making comparisons of COLs across geographical units. This spatial approach, however, it is not so frequent in the literature. The aim of this paper is to calculate a spatial COL index for the regions of Spain. For this purpose, we use microdata from the 2010 Households Budget Survey (HBS, Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares) provided by the Spanish Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística). We will denominate this index spatial cost of living index (SCOL). We use a microeconomic approach that keeps the level of utility of households constant across space but allows for substitution among different baskets of goods. The results reveal large differences in COL across the Spanish regions. The estimates of the SCOL index allows for reconsidering regional comparisons in terms of average wages. Even when nominal monetary figures from official Regional Accounts show huge regional disparities, regional differences are largely moderated when the wage figures are corrected by our SCOL index.     

Ghetto expansion and single-family housing prices: Chicago, 1968–1972

Analysis of selling prices of single-family homes in the City of Chicago during the period 1968–1972 confirms that, controlling for structure and other characteristics, price levels and rates of price increase were lower in black than in white neighborhoods, and that blacks were willing to pay more to move into white neighborhoods but whites showed an aversion to living in changing neighborhoods or those contiguous to black areas. Differences in price changes at the white-Latino interface indicate that the most general influence on levels and changes is neighborhood filtering among submarkets segmented by income, race, and other characteristics, but that arbitrage mechanisms must be invoked in the case of the white-black interface.     

The index of decent subsistence

The index of decent subsistence (IDS) is a price index that allows for purchasing substitutions when food prices change. The consumer's food basket is represented by a utility maximizing quadratic program that computes the cost of decent subsistence (CDS) and assures gastronomic equivalence among the food baskets optimized at various price levels. This IDS is the ratio of respective CDS measures. IDS estimates from USDA food group data are presented for the 1965–1975 and 1978–1989 time periods. These estimates are shown to be inconsistent with fixed weight price indexes computed for the same periods. Implications for the food stamp program and institution feeding systems are discussed.     

IMPACTS OF FOOD PRICES ON THE ECONOMY: SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX AND MICROSIMULATION APPROACH IN INDONESIA

This study investigated the impacts of increasing the prices of heavily protected food commodities in Indonesia on producer and consumer prices. It also evaluated the changes in household living expenses and poverty. The Indonesian Food Social Accounting Matrix was developed along with a price multiplier matrix–microsimulation approach that was used to analyze problems. Poor rural households were the most negatively affected by the increments in food prices. This result contrasted with the standard political argument stating that high rice prices will decrease poverty, particularly in rural areas where the poor live or work as farmers. Of all the food commodities observed, the changes in the rice prices had the most substantial impact on both producer and consumers price, as well as the households’ living cost, particularly low‐income households. Therefore, an increase of 25% in rice price will raise urban, rural, and national poverty levels by 0.13%, 0.10%, and 0.11%, respectively.     

Price Stickiness in the US and Europe Revisited: Evidence from Internet Prices*

This paper compares price stickiness on the Internet and in traditional brick‐and‐mortar stores and examines differences across five countries: France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US. Contrary to conventional retail prices, we find that Internet prices change less often in the US than in EU countries. However, this does not hold for all product categories. Second, prices on the Internet are not necessarily more flexible than prices in brick‐and‐mortar stores. Third, our dataset reveals substantial heterogeneity in the frequency of price changes across Internet shops. Finally, panel logit estimates suggest that the likelihood of observing a price change is a function of both state‐dependent and time‐dependent factors.     

中国城市软实力对住房价格的影响——基于主成分分析法和面板数据模型

在采用主成分分析法合成软实力综合指标构建了两阶段回归模型,运用面板数据GMM估计方法就软实力对房价的影响进行估计后发现,中国35个大中城市的软实力对城市房价均具有显著的正向作用,且这种影响从东部到西部呈现出逐渐减弱的态势。也就是说,在全国范围内,城市软实力对房价均具有显著的正向影响,且不同地区的城市软实力对房价的作用程度有所差别。由此可见,城市的人文社会因素、生态环境质量、交通区位条件对城市商品房价格的影响较为显著,对城市软实力的日益重视决定着中国城市人口的居住选择。     

The effect of oil supply shocks on US economic activity: What have we learned?

Estimated responses of real oil prices and US gross domestic product (GDP) to oil supply disruptions vary widely. We show that most variation is attributable to differences in identification assumptions and in the model specification. Models that allow for a large short-run price elasticity of oil supply imply a larger response of oil prices and a larger, longer lived contraction in US real GDP. We find that, if we condition on a range of supply elasticity values supported by microeconomic estimates, the differences in the oil price responses diminishes. We also examine the role of lag length, of using pre-1973 data, alternative measures of real economic activity and using the median response function instead of the modal structural model.     

Residential energy demand in the United States: A regional econometric analysis

A static equilibrium and a dynamic partial adjustment model of residential demand for electricity and natural gas are presented and estimated for the United States over a recent period characterized by sharply increasing energy prices. The static model is estimated using Ordinary Least Squares while the instrumental variables method is used for the dynamic partial adjustment model. The estimates of long-run elasticities suggest the residential demand for electricity and natural gas are price and income elastic. Intercept and slope dummies used in the models identify significant regional differences in demand functions.     

Convergence of Prices and Rates of Inflation*

We consider how unit‐root and stationarity tests can be used to study the convergence of prices and rates of inflation. We show how the joint use of these tests in levels and first differences allows the researcher to distinguish between series that are converging and series that have already converged, and we set out a strategy to establish whether convergence occurs in relative prices or just in rates of inflation. Special attention is paid to the issue of whether a mean should be extracted in carrying out tests in first differences and whether there is an advantage to adopting a (Dickey–Fuller) unit‐root test based on deviations from the last observation. The asymptotic distribution of this last test statistic is given and Monte Carlo simulation experiments show that the test yields considerable power gains for highly persistent autoregressive processes with ‘relatively large’ initial conditions. The tests are applied to the monthly series of the consumer price index in the Italian regional capitals over the period 1970–2003.     

Share,price and category expenditure—geographic market effects and private labels

Focusing on the interaction between national brands and private labels, this paper has two main empirical contributions: (i) a simultaneous system of demand (share), price and expenditure equations is estimated, and (ii) differences in the structure of the local geographic market are incorporated into the analysis. The former represents an important step in understanding the complete nature of private label and national brand interaction, while the latter is important for understanding the impact of the local retail environment on market behaviour. IRI scanner data from 1991 and 1992 are used to estimate a five‐equation system across 135 food product categories and 59 geographic markets. The results suggest that concentration at both the manufacturer and retailer level can significantly affect private label and national brand price. However, while increased retailer concentration is associated with higher national brand and private label prices, higher manufacturer concentration is associated with higher national brand but lower private label prices. Increases in national brand advertising has the effect of raising national brand price and share, but lowering private label price and share. This is consistent with previous research and suggests that advertising and local market conditions play a significant role in the ability of national brands to price at a premium over private labels. Finally, marketing decision variables, such as display activity and private label distribution, can have an important impact on total category expenditure. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How far can reduced childcare prices push female labour supply?

Exploiting exogenous variation in childcare prices stemming from a childcare price reform, this paper estimates effects of reductions in childcare costs on female labour supply. The reform introduced a cap on childcare prices, and lead to considerable reductions in prices depending on family type and region of residence. Since the price is determined by a handful of observed characteristics, we are able to match households that are similar in all relevant aspects, but experienced quite different price changes. Our difference-in-differences regression matching estimates are very precise, and close to zero.     

Models of Competitive Price Promotions: Some Empirical Evidence from the Coffee and Saltine Crackers Markets

I present tests of a competitive rationale for price promotions. In a model with a population of informed and uninformed customers, price competition yields a static equilibrium in which each seller draws a price from a specified density function. Price data on coffee and saltine crackers products are used to test whether the sample of prices on each product could have possibly come from the theoretically specified density function. The results suggest that some markets are indeed consistent with the marginal distributions of prices predicted by the model. Furthermore, in the process of testing this rationale for price promotions, estimates are obtained for the marginal cost of each product, the number of competing goods, and the percentage of informed consumers. The resulting excess variability of these estimates across competing brands can also raise questions with respect to the empirical validity of the model.     

Substitution Bias and Cost of Living Variability for U.S. Demographic Groups:

A bstract . Intertemporal cost of living variability is analyzed for households with differing income levels and family characteristics. These indexes are based upon the parameter estimates of a comprehensive system of expenditure equations, the quadratic expenditure system. Despite considerable differences in the group-specific share parameters as well as nonlinearities in the Engle curves for each group, little variation occurs in these indexes for several U.S. price series over the 1967–1984 time period. As a result, we find little evidence that group-specific fixed weight indexes are better cost of living approximations than a general Consumer Price Index even though all substitution bias estimates, by income and household type, are quite small.     

The Sato–Vartia index and the monotonicity axiom

The Sato–Vartia index is believed to be on a par with the Fisher ideal index in terms of its ability to satisfy index number axioms or tests. Yet we show that this index fails to satisfy the monotonicity axiom, and we provide formulas for the point at which a Sato–Vartia price index becomes non-monotonic in prices. In fact, requiring monotonicity for initial as well as final prices rules out not only the Sato–Vartia index but all log-change price indexes whose weights depend upon initial or final expenditure shares. Since cost of living index theory leads naturally to the Sato–Vartia index, as well as to other log-change indexes, there is an irreconcilable tension between the standard axiomatics for indexes, and cost of living index theory.     

Illicit drug use among arrestees, prices and policy

Prior studies, by relying on nationally representative surveys, have overlooked the important fact that use of addictive substances is not uniformly distributed; subgroups of hardcore users account for most of the drug consumption. This study employs the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring system to analyze the demand for cocaine and heroin by urban arrestees, employing objective indicators of use based on urinalysis. The data are repeated city cross sections, and panel data methodology is employed to account for endogeneity. Cocaine and heroin prices have a negative effect on the probability of use even among this group of heavy users. Results indicate that subjective, self-reported measures of participation are likely to be under-reported, which may impart bias to estimates of the price elasticity. The own-price cocaine participation elasticity is about −0.15, and the own-price heroin participation elasticity is about −0.10 for arrestees. This contemporaneous elasticity understates the full effect, and the long-run price elasticity is about twice the magnitude. The magnitude of the price response is substantially smaller relative to the estimates in the prior literature, and calculations suggest that further enforcement and interdiction-driven increases in drug prices may not be cost-effective.     

Wages and prices: Are workers fully compensated for cost of living differences?

This paper investigates the equilibrium relationship between wages and prices across labor markets. Of central interest is the extent to which workers receive higher wages to compensate for differences in the cost of living. According to the spatial equilibrium hypothesis, the utility of homogenous workers should be equal across labor markets. This implies that controlling for amenity differences across areas, the elasticity between wages and the general price level across areas should equal one, at least under certain conditions. I test this hypothesis and find that the predicted relationship holds when housing prices are measured by rents and the general price level is instrumented to account for measurement error. When housing prices are measured by housing values, however, the wage-price elasticity is significantly less than one, even using instrumental variables. Rents reflect the price paid for housing per unit of time and are arguably the superior measure. Thus, findings in this essay provide support for the full compensation hypothesis. These findings also have important implications for researchers estimating the implicit prices of amenities or ranking the quality of life across areas.     

Yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model

This paper estimates a sticky price macro model with US macro and term structure data using Bayesian methods. The model is solved by a nonlinear method. The posterior distribution of the parameters in the model is found to be bi-modal. The degree of nominal rigidity is high at one mode (“sticky price mode”) but is low at the other mode (“flexible price mode”). I find that the degree of nominal rigidity is important for identifying macro shocks that affect the yield curve. When prices are more flexible, a slowly varying inflation target of the central bank is the main driver of the overall level of the yield curve by changing long-run inflation expectations. In contrast, when prices are more sticky, a highly persistent markup shock is the main driver. The posterior probability of each mode is sensitive to the use of observed proxies for inflation expectations. Ignoring additional information from survey data on inflation expectations significantly reduces the posterior probability of the flexible price mode. Incorporating this additional information suggests that yield curve fluctuations can be better understood by focusing on the flexible price mode. Considering nonlinearities of the model solution also increases the posterior probability of the flexible price mode, although to a lesser degree than using survey data information.     

The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model

The empirical relevance of models of competitive storage arbitrage in explaining commodity price behavior has been seriously challenged in a series of pathbreaking papers by [Deaton and Laroque, 1992], [Deaton and Laroque, 1995] and [Deaton and Laroque, 1996]. Here we address their major criticism, that the model is in general unable to explain the degree of serial correlation observed in the prices of twelve major commodities. First, we present a simple numerical version of their model which, contrary to Deaton and Laroque (1992), can generate the high levels of serial correlation observed in commodity prices, if it is parameterized to generate realistic levels of price variation. Then, after estimating the [Deaton and Laroque, 1995] and [Deaton and Laroque, 1996] model using their data set, model specification and econometric approach, we show that the use of a much finer grid to approximate the equilibrium price function yields quite different estimates for most commodities. Results are obtained for coffee, copper, jute, maize, palm oil, sugar and tin that support the specifications of the storage model with positive constant marginal storage cost and no deterioration as in Gustafson (1958a). Consumption demand has a low response to price and, except for sugar, stockouts are infrequent. The observed magnitudes of serial correlation of price match those implied by the estimated model.