Information content of extended trading for index futures

The recent extension of trading hours for Hang Seng Index Futures provides an opportunity to examine whether extended futures trading contains useful information about spot returns. Using the weighted price contribution measure, we find that pre‐open futures trades are associated with significant price discovery. We extend the model from T. Hiraki, E. D. Maberly, and N. Takezawa (1995) and adjust for the existence of a pre‐open trading session and the overnight trading of cross‐listed shares in London. Our results indicate that extended trading for index futures contains useful information in explaining subsequent spot returns during the trading day. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:861–886, 2004     

Pricing efficiency of the S&P 500 index market: Evidence from the Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts

Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts (SPDRs) are exchange traded securities representing a portfolio of S&P 500 stocks. They allow investors to track the spot portfolio and better engage in index arbitrage. We tested the impact of the introduction of SPDRs on the efficiency of the S&P 500 index market. Ex‐post pricing efficiency and ex‐ante arbitrage profit between SPDRs and futures were also examined. We found an improved efficiency in the S&P 500 index market after the start of SPDRs trading. Specifically, the frequency and length of lower boundary violations have declined since SPDRs began trading. This result is consistent with the hypothesis that SPDRs facilitate short arbitrage by simplifying the process of shorting the cash index against futures. Tests of pricing efficiency comparing SPDRs and futures suggested that index arbitrage using SPDRs as a substitute for program trading in general results in losses. Although short arbitrages earn a small profit on average, gains are statistically insignificant. A trade‐by‐trade investigation showed that prices are instantaneously corrected after the presence of mispricing signals, introducing substantial risk in arbitraging. Evidence in general supported pricing efficiency between SPDRs and the S&P 500 index futures—both ex‐post and ex‐ante. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:877–900, 2002     

The limits to stock index arbitrage: Examining S&P 500 futures and SPDRS

This study examines factors affecting stock index spot versus futures pricing and arbitrage opportunities by using the S&P 500 cash index and the S&P 500 Standard and Poor's Depository Receipt (SPDR) Exchange‐Traded Fund (ETF) as “underlying cash assets.” Potential limits to arbitrage when using the cash index are the staleness of the underlying cash index, trading costs, liquidity (volume) issues of the underlying assets, the existence of sufficient time to execute profitable arbitrage transactions, short sale restrictions, and the extent to which volatility affects mispricing. Alternatively, using the SPDR ETF as the underlying asset mitigates staleness and trading cost problems as well as the effects of volatility associated with the staleness of the cash index. Minute‐by‐minute prices are compared over different volatility levels to determine how these factors affect the limits of S&P 500 futures arbitrage. Employing the SPDR as the cash asset examines whether a liquid tradable single asset with low trading costs can be used for pricing and arbitrage purposes. The analysis examines how long mispricing lasts, the impact of volatility on mispricing, and whether sufficient volume exists to implement arbitrage. The minute‐by‐minute liquidity of the futures market is examined using a new transaction volume futures database. The results show that mispricings exist regardless of the choice of the underlying cash asset, with more negative mispricings for the SPDR relative to the S&P 500 cash index. Furthermore, mispricings are more frequent in high‐ and mid‐volatility months than in low‐volatility months and are associated with higher volume during high‐volatility months. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1182–1205, 2008     

After‐hours trading in equity futures markets

Although it is well known that electronic futures data absorb news (slightly) in advance of spot markets the role of the electronic futures movement in out‐of‐hours trading has not previously been explored. The behavior of the 24‐hour trade in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures market reveals the important role of these markets in absorbing news releases occurring outside of normal trading hours. Peaks in volume and volatility in this market occur in conjunction with U.S. 8:30 A.M. EST news releases, before the opening of the open‐outcry markets, and in a less pronounced fashion immediately post‐close the open‐outcry market. Price impact in these markets is statistically higher in the post‐close than in the pre‐open periods. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:114–136, 2009     

Trading costs and price discovery across stock index futures and cash markets

The focus of this article is to test the trading cost hypothesis of price leadership, which predicts that the market with the lowest overall trading costs will react most quickly to new information. In an attempt to hold market microstructure effects constant and in contrast to previous studies, we examine intraday price leadership across the S&P 500, NYSE Composite, and MMI futures, and across the respective cash indexes—rather than between each futures and its associated cash index. We find that, among the futures, the S&P 500 exhibits price leadership over the other index futures, whereas among the cash indexes the MMI leads. Both findings are consistent with the trading cost hypothesis. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 475–498, 1999     

Cash trading and index futures price volatility

This study examines the effect of cash market liquidity on the volatility of stock index futures. Two facets of cash market liquidity are considered: (1) the level of liquidity trading proxied by the expected New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) trading volume and (2) the noise composition of trading proxied by the average NYSE trading commission cost. Under the framework of spline–GARCH with a liquidity component, both the quarterly average commission cost and the quarterly expected NYSE volume are negatively associated with the ex ante daily volatility of S&P 500 and NYSE composite index futures. Conversely, liquidity and noise trading in the cash market both dampen futures price volatility, ceteris paribus. This negative association between secular cash trading liquidity and daily futures price volatility is amplified during times of market crisis. These results retain statistical significance and materiality after controlling for bid–ask bounce of futures prices and volume of traded futures contracts. This study establishes empirical evidence to affirm the conventional prediction of a liquidity–volatility relationship: the liquidity effect is secular and persistent across markets. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:465–486, 2011     

The impact of volatility derivatives on S&P500 volatility

This study investigates whether the newly cultivated platform of volatility derivatives has altered the volatility of the underlying S&P500 index. The findings suggest that the onset of the volatility derivatives trading has lowered the volatility of both the cash market volatility and the cash market index, and significantly reduced the impact of shocks to volatility. When big sudden events hit financial markets, however, the volatility of volatility seems to elevate in the U.S. equity market as a result of increased global correlations. Regardless of the period under examination and the estimator employed, long‐run volatility persistence is present. The latter drops significantly when the credit crunch period is excluded from the post‐event date sample period. The correlation between the broad equity index and the return volatility remains low, which in turn strengthens the role of volatility derivatives to facilitate portfolio diversification. The analysis also shows that volatility is mean reverting, whereas market data support the impact of information asymmetries on conditional volatility. In the post‐event date phase, no asymmetries are found when the recent crisis is not accounted for. Finally, comparisons with other international equity indices, with no volatility derivatives listed, unveil that these indices exhibit higher volatility and slower recovery from shocks than the S&P500 index. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:1190–1213, 2009     

Commonality in trading activity and futures‐cash basis: Evidence from the Taiwan futures and stock markets

This study examines commonality in trading activity by various types of institutional investors across futures and stock markets, and the dynamic relationship between the common factors in trading activity and the futures‐cash basis. The empirical results provide evidence of commonality in trading activity by various types of institutional investors across futures and stock markets. Additionally, this study finds that the first principal component of trading activity is most closely related to the futures trading of mutual funds. Moreover, the empirical results indicate that the first principal component of trading activity and mutual funds' futures trading Granger‐cause the futures‐cash basis and vice versa. Finally, the results of the impulse response functions show that the first principal component of trading activity as well as mutual funds' futures trading have a greater impact on the futures‐cash basis than other common factors and other investor types. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:964–994, 2012     

Index futures leadership,basis behavior,and trader selectivity

Employing intraday data for futures and cash values for the S&P 500 over the 1993–1996 period, we attempt to characterize the lead–lag relationship between these two markets and their basis behavior. Our findings show evidence of pronounced futures leadership when markets are rising, with no feedback from the cash market. However, when markets are falling, futures leadership is less evident and significant feedback from the cash market is noted. We also provide evidence of a positive relationship between the basis and return volatility. We offer an explanation, based on trader selectivity, for the leadership‐asymmetry and the basis–volatility relationship. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:649–677, 2002     

Intraday return predictability,portfolio maximisation,and hedging

We examine whether intraday Chinese return predictability is linked to optimal portfolio holding and hedging. We find that: (1) S&P500 futures returns only predict Chinese spot market returns in up to 5-minute of trading with predictability disappearing at higher frequencies of trade; (2) the portfolio weight is maximised at the 5-minute trading frequency, when predictability is the strongest; and (3) when predictability is the strongest, significantly less shorting of the futures is required to minimise risk when a long position is taken in the Chinese market.     

A Markov regime switching approach for hedging stock indices

In this paper we describe a new approach for determining time‐varying minimum variance hedge ratio in stock index futures markets by using Markov Regime Switching (MRS) models. The rationale behind the use of these models stems from the fact that the dynamic relationship between spot and futures returns may be characterized by regime shifts, which, in turn, suggests that by allowing the hedge ratio to be dependent upon the “state of the market,” one may obtain more efficient hedge ratios and hence, superior hedging performance compared to other methods in the literature. The performance of the MRS hedge ratios is compared to that of alternative models such as GARCH, Error Correction and OLS in the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 markets. In and out‐of‐sample tests indicate that MRS hedge ratios outperform the other models in reducing portfolio risk in the FTSE 100 market. In the S&P 500 market the MRS model outperforms the other hedging strategies only within sample. Overall, the results indicate that by using MRS models market agents may be able to increase the performance of their hedges, measured in terms of variance reduction and increase in their utility. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:649–674, 2004     

A further investigation of the lead–lag relationship between the spot market and stock index futures: Early evidence from Korea

In this article, we investigate possible lead and lag relationship in returns and volatilities between cash and futures markets in Korea. Utilizing intraday data from the newly established futures market in Korea, we find that the futures market leads the cash market by as long as 30 minutes. This result is consistent with previous studies for the U.S. and other countries’ futures markets. With regard to volatility interaction between spot and futures markets, we find that, unlike the above results for returns, a bidirectional causality is more prevalent between cash and futures markets, and this relationship is entirely sample dependent. We also find that the trading volume has significant explanatory power for volatility changes in both spot and futures markets. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 217–232, 1999     

Stock index futures trading and volatility in international equity markets

This article examines stock market volatility before and after the introduction of equity‐index futures trading in twenty‐five countries, using various models that account for asynchronous data, conditional heteroskedasticity, asymmetric volatility responses, and the joint dynamics of each country's index with the world‐market portfolio. We found that futures trading is related to an increase in conditional volatility in the United States and Japan, but in nearly every other country, we found either no significant effect or a volatility‐dampening effect. This result appears to be robust to model specification and is corroborated by further analysis of the relationship between volatility, trading volume, and open interest in stock futures. An increase in conditional covariance between country‐specific and world returns at the time of futures listing is also documented. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:661–685, 2000     

Mean reversion in stock index futures markets: A nonlinear analysis

Several stylized theoretical models of futures basis behavior under nonzero transactions costs predict nonlinear mean reversion of the futures basis towards its equilibrium value. Nonlinearly mean‐reverting models are employed to characterize the basis of the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 indices over the post‐1987 crash period, capturing empirically these theoretical predictions and examining the view that the degree of mean reversion in the basis is a function of the size of the deviation from equilibrium. The estimated half lives of basis shocks, obtained using Monte Carlo integration methods, suggest that for smaller shocks to the basis level the basis displays substantial persistence, while for larger shocks the basis exhibits highly nonlinear mean reversion towards its equilibrium value. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:285–314, 2002     

Price clustering in E‐mini and floor‐traded index futures

This article sets out to investigate price clustering in both the open‐outcry (floor‐traded) and electronically traded (E‐mini) index futures markets of the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ‐100 indices. The results show that although price clustering is ubiquitous in both the floor‐traded and E‐mini index futures markets, it nevertheless tends to be higher for open‐outcry index futures, with the clustering in floor‐traded NASDAQ‐100 index futures demonstrating the highest level (97%) at zero digits. A significant increase was also found in price clustering in floor‐traded index futures after the introduction of E‐mini futures trading. The results tend to suggest that those trading mechanisms that involve higher levels of human participation, such as the open‐outcry markets, may well lead to increased incidences of price clustering. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26: 269–295, 2006     

Transactions data tests of efficiency: An investigation in the Singapore futures markets

The aim of this article is to test the profitability of technical trading rules in the intra‐day currency futures market. A wide range of technical strategies are applied to tick data over a two‐year period for two currency futures—Japanese Yen (JY) and Deutschemark (DM)—traded in the Singapore International Monetary Exchange. The study finds that after incorporating transactions costs and testing for the significance of the profits using a bootstrap methodology, none of the technical trading systems produce significant returns. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:687–704, 2000     

Central bank communications and equity ETFs

This article examines effects of monetary policy surprises on returns, volatilities, trading volumes, and bid–ask spread of two equity ETFs, the S&P 500 SPY fund and the S&P 400 MDY fund. The policy surprises are measured by both surprises in the federal funds rate target changes and surprises in the future direction of the Federal Reserve monetary policy. The results show that there is an overreaction of the SPY to the federal funds rate target surprise in the first 5 minutes' trading and that both the SPY and the MDY returns, volatilities, trading volumes, and bid–ask spread react more strongly to surprise cuts than to surprise increases in the federal funds rate target. Quantitatively, after 45 minutes, an unanticipated 25‐basis‐point cut in the federal funds rate target is associated with an increase of 1.2 and 1.6% in the SPY and the MDY, respectively, while an unanticipated 25‐basis‐point decline (or rise) in the four‐quarter‐ahead eurodollar futures rate is associated with an increase (or decrease) of 0.71 and 0.40% in the SPY and the MDY, respectively. Further evidence also suggests that the market reacts more strongly to surprises in the future direction of monetary policy during the monetary tightening period and that the impact of monetary policy surprises depends on their sizes. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:959–995, 2006     

Intraday price‐reversal patterns in the currency futures market: The impact of the introduction of GLOBEX and the euro

This article assesses the intraday price‐reversal patterns of seven major currency futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange over 1988–2003 after 1‐day returns and opening gaps. Significant intraday price‐reversal patterns are observed in five of the seven currency futures contracts, following large price changes. Additional tests are conducted in three subperiods (1988–1992, 1993–1998, and 1999–2003) to examine the impact of the introduction of electronic trading on GLOBEX in 1992 (to assess how a near 24‐hour trading session might impact the next‐day opening and closing futures prices) and the introduction of the euro in 1999 (to assess its impact on price predictability in other futures markets). It is found that the introduction of the GLOBEX in 1992 significantly reduced pricing errors in currency futures in the second subperiod, making the currency futures markets fairly efficient. However, the introduction of the new currency, the euro, and the disappearance of several European currencies in 1999, resulted in significant price patterns (mostly reversals and some persistence) in most of the currency futures, indicating inefficiencies in the third subperiod. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:1089–1130, 2006     

Is it time to reduce the minimum tick sizes of the E‐mini futures?

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), so‐called “E‐mini” index futures contracts trade on the electronic GLOBEX trading system alongside the corresponding full‐size contracts that trade on the open outcry floor. This paper finds that the current minimum tick sizes of the E‐mini S&P 500 and E‐mini Nasdaq‐100 futures contracts act as binding constraints on the bid‐ask spreads by not allowing the spreads to decline to competitive levels. We also find that, while exchange locals trade very actively on GLOBEX, they do not tend to act as liquidity suppliers. Taken together, our empirical results suggest that it is time for the CME to consider decreasing the minimum tick sizes of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq‐100 E‐mini futures contracts. A tick size reduction is likely to result in lower trading costs in the E‐mini futures markets. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:79–104, 2005     

Information transmission in electronic versus open‐outcry trading systems: An analysis of U.S. equity index futures markets

In this article the intraday price discovery process between regular index futures (floor trading) and E‐mini index futures (electronic trading) in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index futures markets is examined, using intraday data from the introduction of the E‐mini index futures to 2001. Using both information shares (Hasbrouck, J., 1995) and common long‐memory factor weights (Gonzalo, J., & Granger, C. W. J., 1995) techniques, we find that both E‐mini index futures and regular index futures contribute to the price discovery process. However, since September 1998, the contribution made by E‐mini index futures has been greater than that provided by regular index futures. Based on regression analysis, we have also found direct empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that the joint effects of operational efficiency and relative liquidity determine the greater contribution made towards price discovery by electronic trading relative to open‐outcry trading over time. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25: 679–715, 2005