Tariff quota administration in China's grain markets: An empirical assessment

In 2016, the U.S. launched a trade dispute against China at the World Trade Organization, arguing that China has been restricting its grain imports via tariff quota administration. Despite sharp criticisms by the U.S., the extent to which the grain imports were restricted in China remains largely unknown, primarily due to that China's grain import behaviors are still under-researched. The U.S. grain export sector might actually gain little from China's grain trade liberalization in the short run, since China has become less import dependent on the U.S. through the pursuit of import diversification. In this context, this article aims to quantify impacts of the tariff quota administration on China's grain imports from its trading partners. We calculate ad valorem tariff equivalents of the tariff quota administration and then estimate import demand elasticities using a source differentiated import demand model. We find that the tariff quota administration might have reduced China's quota fill rates for the grain commodities by 10–35% during 2013–2017. In particular, the U.S. wheat exports to China were largely negatively affected. We also find that the tariff quota administration in China acts like a variable import levy—its import restrictiveness varies negatively with world prices, leading to lower import demand elasticities.     

Incidence of the 1996 Canada–U.S. Softwood Lumber Agreement and the Optimal Export Tax

Our partial-equilibrium analysis suggests 63% of the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Agreement's export tax is absorbed by Canadian consumers. Still, sufficient surplus was extracted from U.S. consumers for the agreement to be in Canada's national interest. In fact, the agreement was suboptimal from a Canadian perspective in that a higher tax rate would have raised national welfare, at least in the short run. Although the agreement decreased U.S. welfare, the net loss for the combined U.S. and Canadian economies is modest, about 5% of the bilateral softwood lumber trade value according to our baseline estimates. This suggests the agreement's tariff rate quota scheme is a reasonably efficient mechanism for redistributing economic surplus from U.S. consumers to producers. Still, a better policy may be to enlarge the softwood lumber market via a research and promotion program funded by a modest (say, 5%) tax on Canadian exports.     

Pricing‐To‐Market Analysis: The Case of EU Wheat Exports

The EU is a major player in the global wheat market. This paper examines the pricing behaviour of EU wheat exporters using a pricing‐to‐market (PTM) analysis. Wheat is an exemplary product for testing PTM theories as it is widely and frequently traded, and largely unbranded. We estimate the relationship between export unit values and exchange rates using quarterly panel data for 11 EU export destinations for 2000–2013. Results show that there is a meaningful long‐run relationship between export unit values and exchange rates, but there is little evidence of differential mark‐ups between EU export markets. Belarus and Iceland are exceptions where exporters from the EU appear to exercise local currency price stabilisation.     

U.S. Agricultural Trade with Mexico

Abstract

This study examined the effects of exchange rates, economic growth, trade liberalization, and export assistance programs on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico. The Commodity Credit Corporation's GSM-102 Export Credit Guarantee Program reduces the risk associated with export financing and payment. The impact of the export credit guarantee program on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico was estimated in an import demand model using quarterly data from 1980 to 1996. The results indicate that for every $1 of export credit guarantees, Mexican imports of U.S. farm products increased $0.30. Real income growth in Mexico, however, was the most important factor in the expansion of U.S. exports. Trade liberalization under NAFTA also increased U.S. exports to Mexico.     

The Effects of Various Policy Regimes in the Integration of North American Grain Markets

This paper examines the integration between U.S. and Canadian grain prices using cointegration and error correction approach. Price relationships are examined in four different subperiods: pre-NAFTA (January 1986 to December 1993), post-NAFTA (January 1994 to July 1999), pre-WGTA (January 1986 to July 1995) and post-WGTA (August 1995 to July 1999). A free trade agreement implemented in 1989 that later folded into NAFTA affected price integration in the North American grain market, but Canada's elimination of freight subsidies in 1995 strengthened it. Empirical results indicate that longterm relationships exist among the price series. Prices are found to be first-difference stationary and cointegrated during the four subperiods. However, cointegration analysis shows significant post-WGTA improvement in market integration, particularly in the speed at which the market adjusts to departures from its long-run equilibrium.     

Agricultural Export Subsidies as a Tool of Trade Strategy: Before and After the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform Act of 1996

If the main justification for agricultural export subsidies is that they reduce government costs of deficiency payments, then the 1996 farm legislation would make U.S. export subsidies largely unnecessary. An additional argument advanced in favor of export subsidies is that their aggressive use by one country will cause competing countries to reduce or discontinue their own subsidies. This argument is explored by means of a Nash equilibrium in which countries choose both a base subsidy level and a response to competitors, and by a consistent conjectures equilibrium. Little support is found for the argument.     

Pricing to Market Behavior by Canadian and U.S. Agri-food Exporters: Evidence from Wheat, Pulse and Apples

A fixed-effects model to control for time variation in marginal costs is employed to pinpoint evidence of price discriminatory behavior of Canadian and U.S. exporters of agri-food products. We test for evidence of pricing to market behavior and whether price discrimination or commodity/country characteristics may provide a plausible explanation. A distinguishing feature of our approach is to examine the time-series properties of the data by the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller and recently developed panel unit root test. The panel data set employed in this paper consists of annual exchange rates and export prices for three agri-food products (wheat, pulse and apples) exported by Canada and the U.S. in foreign markets during 1980–98. Our fixed-effects model suggests that U.S. exporters are sensitive to exchange rate changes, while Canadian exporters in most cases raised price markups in response to a depreciated currency in overseas markets. The results highlight the differences in pricing policy that both countries employ to merchandise agri-food products in export markets.     

Grain marketing and National Competition Policy: Reform or Reaction?

Grain marketing arrangements in Australia have been controversial for many years. Following an account of the historical background to grain marketing, this article concentrates on more recent debates. The most interesting technical economic argument concerns the validity of claims that statutory marketing authorities with export monopoly powers can obtain higher prices. The article also discusses how marketing in Australia has been affected by Commonwealth and State Government policies with respect to microeconomic reform and privatization. Although major changes appear to have been made in grain marketing and its institutions, there are inherent economic problems with the current approach to deregulation.     

Price Discrimination and Pricing to Market Behavior of Canadian Canola Exporters

The role of exchange rate fluctuation on the pricing behavior of Canadian canola exporters to Japan, Mexico, and the U.S. is examined using a model identifying noncompetitive and exchange rate related pricing behavior. Price discrimination was identified for Canadian canola exports to the three destinations over the period of 1993–99. Results also suggest that Pricing to Market strategies were employed for Japanese imports. Canadian canola exporters used local currency price stabilization to dampen the effects of relative price changes in the Japanese currency, perhaps linked to the large size of Japanese imports relative to Mexico and the U.S.     

U.S. corn exports: the role of the exchange rate

Time series econometric methods are applied to monthly observational data over the period 1978-1942 on real exchange rates, real corn prices, corn export sales, and corn export shipments for the United States. In-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast results are used to discern whether exchange rates have elicited systematic responses in U.S. corn prices, sales and shipments, and whether the dynamic transmission mechanisms tying these variables together have changed over time. A structural break appears to have occurred in early 1985. No cointegration is found between exchange rates, price, sales, and shipments in either sub-period. Influences are all short-run or between stationary variables. The role of the exchange rate appears to have moderated in the post-1985 period. Implications for policy analysis are discussed.     

Grades/Classes of Hard Wheats Exported from North America: Analysis of Growth and Market Segments

Issues about grain quality are integral to export demand and competition. In the past, debate focused on wheat class and country of origin. This study analyzed changes in imports for wheat grades and classes for hard wheats in Canada and the United States. Clustering techniques were utilized to examine importer behavior and identify market segments for characteristics of U.S. wheats over time. Shifts in marketing toward shipment of specific classes and from lower to higher grades were identified. Cluster analysis indicated changes in composition and an increase in the number of market segments.     

Characteristics of Successful Southeastern U.S. Agribusiness Exporters

Abstract

A survey of southeastern U.S. agribusiness exporters showed that export firms had many characteristics in common regardless of commodity category. In general, the profile of a successful southeastern U.S. agribusiness exporter in terms of export sales is one that tends to have higher total sales, foreign and domestic, and more export-market experience though the firm tends to be relatively young. While almost half of the firms engaged in promotion activities, less than a quarter of the respondents availed themselves of federal export promotion/assistance programs because of unfamiliarity or perceived costs. An overwhelming majority considered freight forwarding companies as indispensable parties to all transactions because of the extreme complexity of export-import logistics.     

Welfare Impacts of the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Trade Dispute: Beggar Thy Consumer Trade Policy

The welfare impacts of the 1987–91 Canadian "voluntary" 15% lumber export tax and the current 6.51 % U. S. import duty are analyzed using a simultaneous equations model of the softwood lumber market. The results show that U.S. consumers suffer losses 35% to 45% of those endured by Canadian producers. Canadian national welfare was much higher under the voluntary export tax, indicating the Canadian government erred in unilaterally terminating the agreement. In both instances, the U.S. government pursued policies that benefited domestic producers at the expense of U.S. lumber consumers, with no attempt or discussion of compensation. Thus, this appears to be a case of "beggar thy consumer" trade policy.     

Does China's demand boom curb Australian iron ore mining depletion?

Australia's resources boom is underpinned by increased demand from industrialising China and a rise in export prices. Current depletion rates will soon exhaust currently known reserves of iron ore and coal. This paper presents a dynamic optimisation model of a growing open economy where a social planner chooses the time path for depletion of a non‐renewable resource during a demand‐led resources boom. We find that for particular functional forms and in the absence of extraction and social costs, the optimal depletion rate equals the difference between the price elasticity of export demand times the world interest rate and growth in export demand. In contrast to the existing literature, we show that the optimal depletion rate is unaffected by a temporary increase in price, but reduced by growth in demand which is in turn sustained by offshore steel production and urbanisation. The main theoretical implication is that growth in export demand from China reduces the depletion rate. Australian iron ore exports, simulated using this theory, move together with actual volumes over the period 1995–2011, and the error between simulated and actual iron ore exports is lower for the model in this paper than it is for the model without growth in export demand.     

Modelling New Zealand dairy products: evidence on export survival and duration

This article presents evidence concerning the pattern of New Zealand dairy exports duration and survival from 1989 to 2017. It also analyses the influence of a set of supply, demand and gravity‐type drivers on the hazard rate for New Zealand dairy export relationships. The findings are summarised as follows. First, New Zealand dairy export relationships are dynamic with numerous entries and exits to and from foreign markets. Around half of the relationships survived for only 1–2 years at the sequence level. Second, duration of sequence, left‐censoring, initial export, decomposed sequences, New Zealand export price index, the number of cows available for dairy production, the number of origins and destinations, and destination partner’s GDP are the most significant factors reducing the hazard rate of export relationships. As regards the effects of the non‐tariff measures, it is interesting that technical barriers of trade are found to significantly decrease the hazard rate. Only pre‐shipment inspection and contingent trade protective measures are significant impediments to New Zealand dairy export relationships. Finally, hazard probabilities for New Zealand dairy export relationships are estimated to be ‘L‐shaped’ over time, whether or not non‐tariff measures are applied to New Zealand dairy products.     

Long-run impacts of trade shocks and export competitiveness: Evidence from the U.S. BSE event

This paper examines how comparative advantages of major beef exporters changed following the 2003 bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreak, which significantly disrupted the U.S. beef trade until approximately 2007. Using longitudinal data on beef export values and constructed revealed comparative advantage measures, we show that while some measures of the long-run impacts of BSE on U.S. beef export competitiveness have returned to pre-2003 levels, the U.S.’s comparative advantage has not. We also examine a hypothetical scenario of no BSE event in 2003 and predict that in the absence of the BSE outbreak, the U.S. beef sector would have been increasingly more competitive by 2017 than it actually was. Long-term trade competitiveness may not simply return to normal even after a short-term disruption.     

Sources of Real Exchange Rate Variability:

The effect of real exchange rate variability on the demand for agricultural imports by developing countries has potentially important implications for U.S. exporters because of the potential for expanded trade. This study uses the Edwards model (1987) to investigate variations in monetary factors, terms-of-trade, and trade policy (openness) as sources of Trinidad and Tobago's real exchange rate variability. Given that the influence of these factors on the determination of real exchange rate variability may be affected by the way in which trade-weighted-exchange-rate indexes are constructed, indexes for corn and wheat were used. The results indicate that although reductions in terms-of-trade variation yield reductions in exchange rate variability, monetary disturbances display both of the real-exchange-rate-variability-increasing and decreasing effects depending on the index used. Thus, the results do not support any clear set of policy actions through which export opportunities could be expanded for U.S. agricultural commodities.     

Determinants of Export Marketing Channel Design to Developed and Developing Countries: Exploratory Study

ABSTRACT

This exploratory study is intended to analyze the differences in the organization of export marketing channels to developing and developed countries from the perspective of exporters in a developed country. Our evidence seems to suggest that despite high transaction costs, U.S. seafood exporters are not interested in vertical forward integration of the Japanese and Western European seafood distribution channels. The U.S. seafood industry is geared toward providing raw materials to foreign re-processors than exporting value added products. Thus, lack of management commitment to foreign end-users makes vertical forward integration difficult. Hence, unlike in developing countries, the choice of an efficient transaction governance structure for the U.S. seafood export business depends on factors derived from transaction cost theory and management commitment to foreign markets. The study found that resources are not a problem to U.S. seafood exporters.     

Pricing to market behaviour of India's high value agri‐food exporters: an empirical analysis of major destination markets

The pricing behaviour of India's high value agricultural and food exporters in their major destination markets is examined using a pricing‐to‐market (PTM) model for noncompetitive and exchange rate related pricing behaviour. The analysis was undertaken in a context where India is showing high commodity concentration in agricultural trade. The econometric analysis employed is panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) estimation technique. The results indicated evidence of a greater degree of imperfect competition either through price discrimination across destinations or through imperfect exchange rate pass‐through. The analysis of exchange rate effects showed that the local currency price stabilization by the Indian exporters were more prominent than the amplification of exchange rates. The analysis of the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on export prices showed that in most cases the depreciation of Indian rupee had a greater impact than the appreciation. Moreover the results showed that the exchange rate pass‐through is sensitive to the kind of exchange rate index utilised. In our analysis we found that the commodity specific exchange rate better predicts the pricing to market behaviour in most cases.     

Price Discrimination in the Context of Vertical Differentiation: An Application to Canadian Wheat Exports

The ability of the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) to price discriminate in wheat exports is examined. The conceptual model shows that the CWB's ability to exploit cost differences in pricing depends on the extent of differentiation between Canadian and U.S. wheat. This model is implemented using monthly confidential price data for exports to four markets from 1982 to 1994. The empirical results support the conclusions that (1) the CWB has market power emerging from product differentiation, (2) the CWB price discriminates across export markets, and (3) Alchian–Allen effects are important in pricing in markets valuing quality such as Japan and the United Kingdom.