An ‘Islamic future’ without a name

In this allegory of the search for a name for his grandson, the writer envision alternative themes of Islamic futures. In the conclusion of the quest, more fundamental insights into the nature of the future and our present relations to it are gleaned.     

Money laundering—a global obstacle

One of the biggest obstacles to maintaining an effective operating international financial system is money laundering. A global phenomenon and international challenge, money laundering is a financial crime that often involves a complex series of transactions and numerous financial institutions across many foreign jurisdictions. In addition, money laundering is also extremely difficult to investigate and prosecute. In this paper, I present a clinical examination of the money laundering process, the international extent of the problem and global efforts to introduce anti-money laundering measures and regulation in recent years.     

Efficiency in the gold market — a note

This paper investigates the efficiency of the gold market with respect to the information contained in sequences of successive price changes. Tests for serial correlation and modelling the changes as first-order Markov processes indicate some short-term dependence. While there is no reason to believe outsiders can profit from knowledge of these relationships, insiders might, though this is not certain. In addition, the application of a market model to monthly returns for the period 1974–1977 results in the finding that gold's ‘alpha’ and ‘beta’ were positive, but not significantly different from zero.     

Canada's Supreme Court rules no fiduciary obligation towards creditors on insolvency—Peoples Department Stores v. Wise

In Canada, the law is now clear that directors and officers do not owe a fiduciary duty to creditors at the point of insolvency pursuant to corporate and insolvency laws. The Supreme Court of Canada in Peoples Department Stores Inc. v. Wise ruled that the duty of directors and officers under the Canada Business Corporations Act (CBCA) does not change when the corporation is in financial distress and that directors and officers owe their fiduciary duties solely to the corporation at all times. 1 The judgment, which is likely to be the only declaration of Canada's highest court on this issue for some time, leaves a number of unanswered questions for directors and those advising directors of the extent of their obligations both in and outside of insolvency. The Court did find that directors owe a duty of care to creditors, but no fiduciary obligation. The judgment changed the standard of assessment of the duty of care to a purely objective test; enshrined the business judgment rule in Canada; may have provided greater access to the oppression remedy for creditors; and provided direction on the meaning of ‘privy’ with respect to reviewable transactions under the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (BIA). 2 These issues are canvassed in this brief case comment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

1 Peoples Department Stores Inc. v. Wise 2004 SCC 68; Canada Business Corporations Act, R.S.C. 1985, c. C‐44, as amended (CBCA).

2 Canada Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act, R.S.C. 1985, c. B‐3, as amended (BIA).

     

Catastrophe Bonds—Regulating a Growing Asset Class

As the severity of natural catastrophes continues to intensify, disaster risk management is becoming increasingly important. In order to expand the capacity of the insurance markets, insurers and reinsurers have utilized alternative risk financing mechanisms such as catastrophe (CAT) bonds. Although the CAT bond market has increased recently, past CAT bond defaults have demonstrated that there are still concerns relating to contract documentation and the collateral structure of the bonds. This article argues that additional regulation that addresses these contracting problems and financial risks would facilitate greater use of CAT bonds. Regulatory change should also include industry‐wide accounting and tax reforms that will further support risk management objectives and the growth of the market. If the CAT bond market continues to experience the growth that was witnessed in the past year and additional regulation is implemented, insurers, reinsurers and governments can benefit from the cost‐effective protection that the instruments may provide in the event of a mega‐catastrophe.     

Risk Management—the Revealing Hand

Many believe that the recent emphasis on enterprise risk management function is misguided, especially after the failure of sophisticated quantitative risk models during the global financial crisis. One concern is that top‐down risk management will inhibit innovation and entrepreneurial activities. The authors disagree and argue that risk management should function as a “revealing hand” that identifies, assesses, and mitigates risks in a cost‐efficient way. In so doing, risk management can add value by allowing companies to take on riskier projects and strategies. But to avoid problems encountered in the past, particularly during the recent crisis, risk managers must overcome deep‐seated individual and organizational biases that prevent managers and employees from thinking clearly and analytically about their risk exposures. In this paper, the authors draw lessons from seven case studies about the ways that a corporate risk management function can foster highly interactive dialogues to identify and prioritize risks, help to allocate resources to mitigate such risks, and bring clarity to the value trade‐offs and moral dilemmas that often must be addressed in decisions to manage risks. Developing an effective risk management system requires, first, an agreement about a company's objectives, values, and priorities; second, a clear formulation and communication of the firm's “risk appetite”; and, third, continuous monitoring of a firm's risk‐taking behavior against its declared risk limits. Quantitative risk models should not be the sole—or even the most important—basis for decision‐making. They cannot replace management judgment and are best used to trigger in‐depth discussions among managers and employees about the most important risks faced by the firm and the best ways to respond to them.     

Sustainability accounting—a brief history and conceptual framework

Research linking accounting to the emerging concept of sustainability surfaced in the early 1990s and has received continuing attention in academic and professional accounting literature. This paper tracks this brief history through to the release of the Sustainability Reporting Guidelines at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in August 2002, consolidating the various approaches into a sustainability accounting framework. The result is a comprehensive reporting model that presents an enormous challenge to business organisations, requiring a significant commitment of resources to achieve widespread implementation. Failure to meet this challenge enables business organisations to continue to avoid accountability for their continuing unsustainability. The paper concludes with a personal view as to how implementation of the sustainability accounting framework could proceed.     

Machine‐independent audit trail analysis—a tool for continuous audit assurance

This paper reports the results of a research project which examines the feasibility of developing a machine‐independent audit trail analyser (MIATA). MIATA is a knowledge‐based system which performs intelligent analysis of operating system audit trails. Such a system is proposed as a decision support tool for auditors when assessing the risk of unauthorized user activity in multi‐user computer systems. It is also relevant to the provision of a continuous assurance service to clients by internal and external auditors. Monitoring user activity in system audit trails manually is impractical because of the vast quantity of events recorded in those audit trails. However, if done manually, an expert security auditor would be needed to look for two main types of events—user activity rejected by the system's security settings (failed actions) and users behaving abnormally (e.g. unexpected changes in activity such as the purchasing clerk attempting to modify payroll data). A knowledge‐based system is suited to applications that require expertise to perform well‐de?ned, yet complex, monitoring activities (e.g. controlling nuclear reactors and detecting intrusions in computer systems). To permit machine‐independent intelligent audit trail analysis, an anomaly‐detection approach is adopted. Time series forecasting methods are used to develop and maintain the user pro?le database (knowledge base) that allows identi?cation of users with rejected behaviour as well as abnormal behaviour. The knowledge‐based system maintains this knowledge base and permits reporting on the potential intruder threats (summarized in Table I). The intelligence of the MIATA system is its ability to handle audit trails from any system, its knowledge base capturing rejected user activity and detecting anomalous activity, and its reporting capabilities focusing on known methods of intrusion. MIATA also updates user pro?les and forecasts of behaviour on a daily basis. As such, it also ‘learns’ from changes in user behaviour. The feasibility of generating machine‐independent audit trail records, and the applicability of the anomaly‐detection approach and time series forecasting methods, are demonstrated using three case studies. These results support the proposal that developing a machine‐independent audit trail analyser is feasible. Such a system will be an invaluable aid to an auditor in detecting potential computer intrusions and monitoring user activity. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconciling the electricity industry with sustainable development: backcasting — a strategic alternative

The concept of Sustainability has emerged from a recognition that all terrestrial systems, be they natural or human, are interconnected, and cannot, therefore, be adequately understood through reductionist analysis. Such an understanding has fundamental implications for the policy making process. While specialist knowledge remains an essential prerequisite in the development of effective ‘sustainability’ policies, it is not in itself sufficient. An equally important, and all too often neglected, component, is the understanding and insight gained from synthesising detailed and disparate information from across a range of disciplines. With this in mind, this paper builds on Lovin's and Robinson's earlier ‘backcasting’ work to suggest an alternative strategic structure for reconciling a reliable and affordable electricity industry with the broad tenets of sustainable development. Within this alternative model, electricity demand, as well as supply, becomes an endogenous factor in the policy making process. Moreover, the model essentially rejects the mechanistic optimisation underpinning both the contemporary market model and the earlier planned structure of the electricity industry. By contrast, the backcast proposed here embraces wider environmental and social responsibilities through a more circumspect appreciation of current knowledge and hence a more flexible and responsive policy agenda.     

Profitable candlestick trading strategies—The evidence from a new perspective

This paper aims to investigate the profitability of two-day candlestick patterns by buying on bullish (bearish) patterns and holding until bearish (bullish) patterns occur. Our data set includes daily opening, high, low, and closing prices of component stocks in the Taiwan Top 50 Tracker Fund for the period from 29 October 2002 through 31 December 2008. We examine three bullish reversal patterns and three bearish reversal patterns. We find that three bullish reversal patterns are profitable in the Taiwan stock market. For robustness checks, we evaluate the applicability of our results to diverse market conditions, conduct an out-of-sample test and employ a bootstrap methodology.     

The future of the red metal—scenario analysis

A regional copper scenario model has been developed from the perspective of the generic Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the four world regions: OECD90, ASIA, REF, and ALM. A set of three scenarios: Tech World, Green World, and Trend World, each representing the significant driving forces influencing population and economic growth, technological change and environmental consciousness, is presented. Intensities of copper use converge in the long-term in the Tech and Green World as GDP per capita level approaches $100,000. Global copper use, currently 15 Tg Cu/yr, is expected to rise to 30–130 Tg Cu/yr by the year 2100. The rate of copper use in the ASIA and ALM regions exceeds the copper use in the OECD90 and REF regions beyond 2020. A Green World corresponds to per capita global copper use of 4 kg Cu/(capita-yr) as compared to the contemporary global level of 2.6 and 10 kg Cu/(capita-yr) in developed regions, symbolizing the sustainability theme. For the OECD90 region, the results are more sensitive to the copper intensity of use variable whereas for ASIA and ALM regions, variations in GDP per capita can influence copper use.