全球化条件下中欧贸易产品结构与不平衡分析

一、中欧贸易现状中国加入W TO后,中欧贸易发展迅速,双边贸易额一直保持两位数的年增长率。2003年欧盟是中国第三大贸易伙伴,仅次于日本和美国(见表1);同年中国是欧盟进出口贸易增长最快的贸易伙伴,中欧贸易总额大幅超过欧盟与瑞士间的贸易总额,仅次于美国而稳居欧盟第二大贸易伙伴地位。2004年5月1日欧盟东扩后,拥有25个成员国的世界最大的区域一体化组织已跃升为中国的第一大贸易伙伴国,2005年中欧贸易额达2,173.1亿美元。根据中国海关的最新统计,2006年1-4月中国与欧盟原15国的贸易额为743.2亿美元,同比增长19.5%,与扩大后的欧盟25国的…     

欧盟东扩对我国出口贸易的影响与挑战

2004年5月1日,中东欧15国中波兰、匈牙利、捷克、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、塞浦路斯和马耳他正式加入欧盟,欧盟由15国增加到25国,拥有4.5亿的消费者,年进出口总额接近3万亿美元,占世界总贸易额的20%,国内生产总值占世界的四分之一,成为全球最大的贸易集团和进口市场.欧盟原是中国的第三大贸易伙伴,东扩后成为第二大贸易伙伴.从长远与宏观看,有利于中欧经贸关系的发展,但近期来看,对我国的影响弊大于利.对我国的挑战与影响涉及贸易市场(原成员与新成员)与贸易条件,体现在贸易转移、纺织品、农产品、关税配额、反倾销措施、技术标准、原有的双边互惠贸易协议失效等诸多方面.     

CAFTA早期收获产品的贸易效应评估

文章基于1999～2006年中国和东盟五国早期收获产品(EHP)贸易流量数据,应用贸易比重指数和行业贸易引力模型,评估中国和东盟五国早期收获产品的贸易效应。结果表明,CAFTA对成员国的EHP区内出口具有贸易扩大效应;同时对东盟五国之间和区外国家与成员国的EHP进出口存在贸易转移效应。在CAFTA今后的建设中,成员国应该采取措施,在促进区内贸易扩大的同时,减少对区外的贸易转移,以获得更大的贸易创造。     

信息平台

欧盟25国就食品包装规格达成协议近日,欧盟25个成员国就食品包装规格在布鲁塞尔达成协议。欧盟25国一致同意欧盟负责工业的委员提出的对现行规定加以简化的提案,同时对牛奶、糖等不再实施严格的重量或容量标准,为欧盟成员国间的进出口贸易提供便利。但葡萄酒和含酒精饮料除外。     

俄白哈关税同盟贸易效应及其影响

俄、白、哈关税同盟是欧亚经济共同体框架内区域经济一体化重要的阶段性成果,本文重点分析了该关税同盟的贸易效应：2011-2012年,同盟成员国之间的贸易增幅远高于成员国与其主要贸易伙伴的贸易增速,除了哈萨克斯坦之外,俄罗斯、白俄罗斯与同盟成员国的贸易在其外贸总额的占比均有所上升,说明关税同盟促进了三国贸易往来。虽然关税同盟的运行导致了中国对哈国出口成本增加,但由于俄、哈两国与中国属于互补型贸易关系,中国与各成员国的双边贸易仍呈现快速增长状况,俄罗斯加入WTO将促进中俄双边经贸合作规范化和稳健化发展。     

中英对外贸易现状及前景分析

英国是贸易大国,同时也是中国的主要对外贸易伙伴之一。中国与欧盟贸易往来频繁,而作为欧盟主要成员国之一的英国,对于中国对外贸易的发展有着至关重要的影响。目前,中英经济贸易随着交往程度的加深日益成熟,但同时也存在许多贸易摩擦纠纷。因此,分析中英贸易现状及前景,对于日后两国贸易的发展都有十分重要的指导意义。     

欧盟在华直接投资对中国与欧盟贸易的影响

本文运用面板数据的方法,研究了欧盟在华直接投资对中国与欧盟贸易的影响,结论表明,欧盟在华直接投资促进了中国对欧盟各成员国的进出口贸易,但影响较小,影响中、欧贸易的主要因素是中国和欧盟各成员国的经济实力(GDP)。这表明欧盟在华投资企业的市场战略主要是针对中国广阔的国内市场的。文章最后部分对如何促进欧盟对华直接投资和扩大中、欧贸易提出了建议。     

中国与RCEP伙伴国数字服务贸易的竞争性和互补性分析

数字技术的发展带动了全球数字服务贸易的进步,数字服务贸易日益成为全球经济增长的“新引擎”,在全球服务贸易中逐渐成为主导力量,RCEP的签订也给中国与RCEP伙伴国在数字服务贸易方面的发展与进步提供了新的契机。本文基于RCEP成员国2013—2021年的数字服务贸易往来数据,对RCEP成员国的数字服务贸易规模进行测度,并采用贸易竞争力指数和综合贸易互补性指数,分析了中国与RCEP伙伴国进行数字服务贸易的竞争性和互补性。结果表明,RCEP各成员国均在数字服务贸易的不同产业存在一定的竞争优势,但各国优势产业差距较大的竞争优势差异也较大,且中国与RCEP伙伴国之间的数字服务贸易互补性明显不高,仍有一定的发展空间。     

我国出口国(区)别分布及出口增长的影响因素

本文基于1997-2008年我国对25个主要贸易伙伴出口额等面板数据建立了6个贸易引力模型,筛选出了两国首都(城市)之间贸易平均里程等10个影响贸易流量及出口增长的因素,通过对比研究,发现不同因素对我国出口流量的国别分布以及出口增长有着不同程度的影响。同时,本文给出了某一年份我国对不同贸易伙伴的名义和实际出口增长潜力的测算方法。     

人民币汇率变动与中国贸易收支的非线性动态效应分析

本文基于1994年1月至2016年10月的月度数据,运用非线性自回归滞后(NARDL)模型,分析了中国与主要贸易伙伴之间汇率变动对贸易收支影响的非线性动态效应(1)。研究结果表明:中国与贸易伙伴在贸易收支与汇率变动之间存在长期均衡关系,但不同经济体的这种长期均衡关系表现不同;中国与7个经济体间在汇率变动和贸易收支关系上存在J曲线效应;当汇率受到负向冲击时中国与6个经济体的贸易收支将受到更大的影响,总体来说近年来人民币升值对中国与贸易伙伴贸易收支的恶化效应逐渐出现。     

Revisiting national border effects in foreign trade in goods of Canadian provinces

A significant body of empirical studies demonstrates sizable national border effects in foreign trade of Canadian provinces throughout the 1980s and 1990s. This paper revisits and expands the scope of the border effects analysis by estimating the border effect in trade with US states as well as countries in the European Union (EU) and the G-20 using more recent data from 2001–10. Furthermore, we perform the Blinder–Oaxaca nonlinear decomposition to decompose the border effects into various components, including the transaction costs, the tariff and non-tariff measures, and the unexplained component. Results from the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood model show that, compared to existing estimates from the 1980s and 1990s, the size of the border effect in trade between Canadian provinces and US states has declined. The border effects for Canada–EU and Canada–G-20 bilateral trade flows sit at somewhat elevated levels. About a third of the border effects in overall trade with EU and G-20 countries can be attributed to the variables related to transaction costs in foreign trade. While the significance of tariffs has declined, the prevalence of non-tariff measures seems to be on a rise. That said, we find that the welfare-changing measures combined – tariff and non-tariff measures – play a limited role in explaining the border effects in comparison with the role of transaction costs and the unexplained component.     

欧盟对华贸易逆差问题研究

在中国与欧盟贸易高速发展的同时,欧盟对华贸易逆差不断扩大。本文运用来自欧盟、世界贸易组织以及中国国内的大量统计数据,对欧盟对华贸易逆差的成因进行解析。分析表明:欧盟的经济政策与欧元的持续升值、中国产业结构的调整、欧盟对华贸易“逆差集中效应”,以及欧盟全球化配置资源的需要促成了欧盟对华贸易逆差不断扩大,这四大因素将对未来欧盟与中国的贸易产生持续的影响。     

WTO框架下欧盟知识产权边境措施适用于过境货物之合法性分析

当今,不少国家或地区的知识产权执法权限日益扩张,并与贸易自由、尤其是过境自由的法律制度相冲突。这一冲突近年来在针对过境货物的知识产权边境措施中凸显,包括荷兰在内的欧盟国家频繁扣押过境货物,其中不少涉及我国出口的货物。2010年5月,印度就仿制药扣押案正式通过WTO向欧盟提起磋商。2011年7月印度和欧盟已达成了一项临时性谅解协议,①但这只是暂时解决了欧盟与印度之间针对通用名药的纷争,远未解决欧盟边境措施本身的合法性问题。本文旨在研究欧盟的立法和司法实践,分析其在GATT和TRIPS协定项下的合法性,并简述我国的应对措施。     

Impact of Environmental Regulations on Trade in the Main EU Countries: Conflict or Synergy?

In an increasingly integrated world with declining trade barriers, environmental regulations can have a decisive role in shaping countries’ comparative advantages. The conventional wisdom about environmental protection is that it comes at an additional cost on firms imposed by the government, which may erode their global competitiveness. However, this paradigm has been challenged by some analysts. In particular, Porter and van der Linde argue that pollution is often associated with a waste of resources and that more stringent environmental policies can stimulate innovations that may overcompensate for the costs of complying with these policies. This is known as the Porter hypothesis. While there is a broad empirical literature on the impact of trade on environment, the empirical literature on the impact of environmental regulations on trade flows is relatively scarce, very heterogeneous and presents mixed results. The innovative feature of this paper is its attempts to estimate, in a gravity setting, augmented with a proxi of environmental stringency, the impact of three major multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) on 15 EU countries’ bilateral exports. According to our estimates, in the period 1988–2008, to be member of MEAs had a positive average impact on EU‐15 bilateral exports. This evidence can be partly explained by a possible trade diversion effect with respect to countries that did not sign MEAs and a corresponding trade creation effect among members of the environmental agreements. Furthermore, evidence coming from interaction effects estimates seems to show that for exporting countries, having signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Montreal agreements partly mitigates (by the amount of the estimated coefficient) the negative impact of having a relatively more stringent environmental regulation on bilateral trade. This result could have important policy implications for the future international trade–environmental negotiations.     

Accounting for the Differences Between Gross and Value Added Trade Balances

One of the main stylised facts that has emerged from the recent literature on global value chains is that bilateral trade imbalances in gross terms can differ substantially from those measured in value added terms. However, the factors underlying the extent and sign of the differences between the two measures have so far not been investigated. Here, we propose a novel decomposition of bilateral gross trade balances that accounts for the differences between gross and value added concepts. The bilateral analysis contributes conceptually to the literature on double counting in trade by identifying the trade flow in which value added is actually recorded for the first time in international trade statistics. We apply our decomposition framework to the development of intra‐EU‐27 trade balances from 1995 to 2011 and show that a growing share of intra‐EU bilateral trade balances is due to demand in countries other than the two direct trading partners. The latter accounted for 25 per cent of the total variance of intra‐EU gross bilateral trade balances in 2011, which marks a considerable rise from 3 per cent in 1995.     

China-EU Economic Relation： Fluctuating in 2008

The economic relation between China and EU has the great significance to each party as well as to the world. As the great political and economic powers in the today＇s world, China and EU have the urgent motivations to promote the economic cooperation between them at the global times. The economic relation between China and Europe, including the trade and economic cooperation and investment between China and Europe, has been developing greatly since 1975. The bilateral trade volume has increased rapidly, ahnost being doubled in 3 years since 2000. The bilateral trade volume arrived at US$356.2 billion in 2007. In 2007, China＇s import from EU was US$111 billion, which increases by 22% comparing with that in 2006, and exportation to EU is US$245 billion, which increases by 29%.     

中国与欧盟贸易互补性和竞争性的实证研究

运用贸易强度指数和出口相似性指数分别测算1999—2006年间中国与欧盟新老三成员国的贸易互补程度和贸易竞争程度,实证结果表明:中国与欧盟整体的贸易密切程度近年来都在逐步上升,但是与欧盟的贸易还有很大的潜力,其中与欧盟新成员国的贸易潜力大于与欧盟老成员国的贸易潜力;近年来中国与匈牙利、捷克、德国在世界市场上的出口竞争程度越来越激烈,尤其是与德国的出口竞争程度上升得最快。     

欧盟反倾销调查与中国对欧出口贸易间关系 研究：基于ARDL-ECM 模型的分析

欧盟对华反倾销问题是当前中欧经贸关系进程中的重大问题,本文采用ARDL模型和边界检验技术,实证分析欧盟对华反倾销与中国对欧出口之间的长、短期关系。结果显示,我国对欧出口与欧盟GDP、出口商品价格、反倾销之间存在协整关系。根据协整分析,长期内欧盟对华反倾销并未抑制我国对欧出口贸易,相反,反倾销在一定程度上推动了对欧出口规模;欧盟成员国收入水平对出口贸易有较大的促进作用;出口价格变动对出口抑制效应不明显。     

“一带一路”背景下中国与欧亚经济联盟贸易效率及贸易潜力研究

以中国对EEU成员国出口贸易为视角,运用SFGM模型,选取2009—2018年的中国与欧亚经济联盟的数据对贸易效率及贸易潜力进行了测度。研究结果表明,欧亚经济联盟各成员国的经济规模、双边政府廉洁、贸易自由度、物流绩效、OFDI、共同边界等对中国出口具有显著的促进作用,通货膨胀也对出口起到促进作用,但作用不显著。双边的地理距离、是否内陆国、关税税率、汇率等对中国出口欧亚经济联盟具有明显的抑制作用,汇率也具有抑制作用,但不显著。根据研究结论提出针对性的政策建议,即加强双边合作,提升清关效率,完善基础设施质量,便利贸易和运输效率,提高物流服务质量;进一步降低关税和非关税壁垒,提高商品运输的效率,清除双方隐性贸易壁垒;加强政府对金融机构的监管力度,加大信贷资金配置规模;积极推动中国与EEU成员国建立自贸区;实现双边资本、信息等资源的共享,从而提高贸易效率,减少贸易阻力。最终着眼于命运共同体及全球价值链视域,推动双边贸易发展。     

中欧贸易互补性研究——基于比较优势理论和产业内贸易理论的实证分析

自中欧建交以来,双边贸易取得了快速进展。经过2004年东扩的欧盟已经成为我国最大的贸易伙伴,同时我国也成为了欧盟的第二大贸易伙伴,不断扩大的双边贸易从一个侧面反映了中欧贸易的互补性。本文利用近十几年的贸易统计数据,分别以比较优势理论和产业内贸易理论为依据对中欧贸易的互补性进行了实证分析,从而得出了以下结论:中欧双边贸易存在较强的互补关系,中欧之间的国际分工主要以产业间的垂直分工为主,同时随着我国工业制成品国际竞争力的迅速提高,产业内贸易在中欧双边贸易中的重要性正在不断增强,中欧之间的国际分工正逐步向水平方向发展。