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1.
Robert P. Trost 《Atlantic Economic Journal》1981,9(3):85-90
Conclusion This paper reviews two models of selectivity and gives an interpretation of the covariance terms that are particular to self-selectivity models. While the second model examined in this paper has been discussed elsewhere, the estimates presented for the first model have not been discussed in previous papers. More importantly though, the paper proposes an hypothesis about the expected relationship between error covariances. According to this hypothesis, if all individuals who are faced with the choice between two regimes (1 and 2) choose the regime which yields a maximum value, then the expected relationship between covariances is 1 < 2 . If all individuals choose that regime which yields a minimum value, then the expected relationship between covariances is 1 > 2 . This relationship holds for a very general class of selectivity models, so long as individuals are choosing between regimes by comparing the expected value (to them) of each regime.This paper was written while I was working under the professional development program at CNA. 相似文献
2.
Game equilibrium modelling 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Dave Furth 《De Economist》1993,141(3):353-379
Summary Non-cooperative game theory has in recent years become one of the main tools in the social sciences and economics. It deals with decision problems of more than one (rational) player. The actions of those players result in outcomes that are the best that may have happened to a player, given the actions of the other players. This is precisely the content of the 'Nash equilibrium' concept. It would be nice when each game had a unique Nash equilibrium. Unfortunately, both non-existence and multiple equilibria occur. An important role in game theory is played by the information available to the players. Among the economic applications are: the Theory of Industrial Organisation, Bargaining and the Economic Theory of Information.Comments by Eric van Damme and Casper de Vries on an earlier draft of this paper have greatly improved the presentation. I have benefited from the comments of the editor and an anonymous referee ofDe Economist. For all omissions, all possible errors and the revealed views in this paper, I alone am responsible. 相似文献
3.
Jan Luiten van Zanden 《De Economist》2000,148(4):539-555
The paper examines a number of aspects of post-war economic development of the Netherlands in the light of recent out of equilibrium growth theory. It contains a comparison of the stylized facts of the long run performance of the economies of the United States and the Netherlands which suggests that the US has been on an equilibrium growth path for more than a century, but that the Netherlands followed a radically different growth path, especially after 1945. It is attempted to explain this erratic behaviour of the investment ratio and the wage share after 1945 by examining two aspects more in detail: the financing of the acceleration of growth after 1945 and the phase of too rapid growth during the 1950s and 1960s, when the growth of the demand for labour tended to be higher than the increase in its supply. 相似文献
4.
Exchange rate theories 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
H. Visser 《De Economist》1989,137(1):16-46
Summary A four-period classification is used to categorise recent exchange-rate theories or models. In the very short period, only capital flows are relevant. In the short period, both capital flows and payments on the current account play a role. In the long period, the capital account and the current account are individually in equilibrium. In the very long period, purchasing power parity holds. Cash-in-advance models are dealt with separately. Many models that purport to explain exchange rates do in fact not provide for the exchange of currencies. No model stands up satisfactorily to econometric testing. Speculative bubbles, the peso problem and news play havoc with tests of the uncovered interest parity theorem, the core of the monetary models. This aside, the fundamental assumption of rational expectations itself is suspect. There does not seem to be such a thing as a true model.I am indebted to Dr. W.J.B. Smits and Professor J.W. Gunning for helpful discussions on a number of issues pertinent to this article. 相似文献
5.
George Psacharopoulos 《De Economist》1973,121(6):609-625
Summary There exist basically two manpower planning methodologies. Firstly, the manpower requirements approach which stipulates that there are needs in the economy for given numbers of qualified persons in the labour force. Secondly, the rate of return approach which focuses on the costs and benefits of producing one extra qualified person at the margin.This paper contrasts the theoretical foundations of the two approaches with particular emphasis on the degree of substitution between different types of educated labour. The empirical evidence on elasticities of substitution is reviewed and it is concluded that the cost-benefit model fits better the real world.I am indebted to Dr. Christopher Dougherty for reading a draft of this paper and making many important corrections. 相似文献
6.
Summary This paper re-examines the relationships between short term capital flows and monetary policy, in the light of a new theoretical approach of the forward exchange market. They contend that the traditional forward exchange market theory is a misleading one as it fails to give all the importance it deserves to the distinction between covered and uncovered exchange transactions and to the actual role of the arbitrageurs. As a consequence of this analysis, they demonstrate that the problem of monetary management in an open economy must be dealt with in a way different from what has been usual, and they conclude that monetary policy, central banks' intervention on the foreign exchange market and direct controls on capital movements can still have some efficiency in the struggle against inflation, either of the domestic or the imported type. 相似文献
7.
Professor of Economics Scott Gordon Professor of Economics Klaus Stegemann 《De Economist》1985,133(2):218-224
Summary This note is a critique of an article by P. Copes published in the February 1984 issue ofDe Economist. Copes argues that an open access market must be regarded as a common property resource. By analogy to the economics of the fishery, he derives the proposition that free access to any market results in excess capacity because competitive entry dissipates what he calls the market rent. Copes claims that his results hold for the limiting case of perfect competition. Our critique explains why the analogy between a perfectly competitive market and a open access fishery is invalid. 相似文献
8.
Rainer Fremdling 《De Economist》2000,148(4):521-537
The actual discussion on the Betuwe-line and the construction of this new railway for freight transportation from Rotterdam to Germany is placed into a historical perspective. Right from the beginning of railway history in the Netherlands, the construction of an Iron Rhine was disputed. As analytical tool, the social saving approach is used. The conclusion of this cost-benefit analysis is that it did not and does not matter that much for the level of welfare in the Low Countries or the Rhineland whether the goods from major coastal ports are transported on the river Rhine or by the four Iron Rhines. 相似文献
9.
Prof. Dr. W. A. A. M. De Roos 《De Economist》1972,120(6):513-533
Summary The M.I.T. report for the Club of Rome tries to indicate the limits of economic growth. The thesis submitted by the report requires us to reconsider the concept of economic growth that we have been handling during the last decades. Galbraith's thesis on the Affluent Society makes a reconsideration of the concept of growth more acceptable. What is necessary is not really slowing down growth but modifying the structure of the growth process. All this requires a clear picture of the society that we prefer: an enlightened utopia. The modification of the structure will cause such discontinuities in the growth process as to add a sixth stage to the five stages of economic growth that have been suggested by Rostow.Rede, uitgesproken bij de aanvaarding van het ambt van gewoon hoogleraar in de staathuishoudkunde aan de faculteit der sociale wetenschappen van de Nederlandse Economische Hogeschool, Hogeschool voor Maatschappijwetenschappen te Rotterdam op donderdag 12 oktober 1972. 相似文献
10.
James Tobin 《De Economist》1990,138(1):1-14
Summary Jan Tinbergen originated the theory of policy in the 1950s. Here I apply it to contemporary macroeconomics. The two standard instruments of short-run demand management cannot achieve the two usual targets, full employment and price stability. With respect to those goals, these two instruments are collinear, except for small and transient effects on foreign exchange rates. But the mix of fiscal and monetary policies, relative to one another, does have important effects on the composition of national output, as between investment and consumption.I point out that policy-makers, like portfolio managers, should diversify the instruments they use when they are uncertain of their effects. I discuss some pitfalls in the empirical estimation of policy effects, especially possible misinterpretations of simple correlations, and I note that policy rules cannot be invariant to changes in macroeconomic structure. I argue that policy rules should involve responses to new information and in practice allow discretion. Finally, I suggest that Tinbergen's theory of policy needs to be extended to policy coordination among nations.Third Tinbergen Lecture delivered on October 20, 1989, in Utrecht for the Royal Netherlands Economic Association. 相似文献
11.
Conclusions Unlike McKenzie and Tullock, we do not know how personsshould treat their bodily organs or what is an ideal exit. That depends upon their utility goals, which are defined in output terms specific to the decision maker. We contend that the body is an input into the utility production process, and therefore, as with any input, it must be maintained and repaired at a level consistent with the output goals for maximization of utility. Thus, from this framework, it is quite consistent for a person to die with healthy organs without any thought of belief in reincarnation or the desire to bequeath one's bodily organs to others, or religious values. Self interest is all that must prevail.Also, the fact that there are interrelationships between the organs in the system, and at points these relationships take on fixed factor characteristics such that reduced levels of operation in one organ can create disorientation or coma or damage to other organs, means that the body cannot die as M-T suggest. Zero capacity for all organs at death is a technical impossibility as well as being inconsistent with the output goals of utility maximizers. 相似文献
12.
G. Criel 《De Economist》1985,133(2):199-217
Summary Despite its importance as an exception to the free trade case, the argument for infant industry protection has only sporadically been subjected to close theoretical scrutiny. This article helps to fill this gap by evaluating the various traditional and modern perceptions of the topic. The paper concludes that none of the existing formulations of the infant industry theory are fully satisfactory. The classical view on the argument seems too static and too restrictive, whereas the modern approaches fail to provide a convincing theoretical framework. The proposed reappraisal of the infant industry idea is based on the classical principle of comparative advantage, but places the argument in the dynamic context of modern theories. 相似文献
13.
Summary Internal and external economic targets which a monetary authority tries to achieve make its interest rate policy partly endogenous. This article analyses the Bundesbank's interest rate policy since 1975, the year the Bundesbank published its first intermediate money growth target based on estimates of an inevitable inflation rate and expectations about economic development. Estimation of a discount rate reaction function suggests that German monetary policy responds primarily to the final objective of price level stability and to a smaller extent, to the intermediate money supply target. Moreover, cyclical movements and balance-of payments equilibria are found to significantly influence the Bundesbank's discount rate policy. Both the inflation rate and the current account enter the reaction function in a non-linear way. When inflation is above the targeted rate or when there is a current account deficit, discount rate responses are much stronger than in the case of below target inflation or a current account surplus. Internationally, the Bundesbank discount rate policy is limited by US short-term interest rate movements. 相似文献
14.
Robert M. Solow 《De Economist》1992,140(1):1-15
Summary The old growth theory of the 1950s led to certain conclusions about the sorts of economic policies that would promote economic growth, and also about their limitations. The new growth theory of the 1980s makes much stronger assumptions and leads to correspondingly stronger conclusions about the scope of growth-promoting policy. This article argues that: (1) empirical work so far has neither confirmed nor denied the strong assumptions underlying the new theory; (2) the theory is worth pursuing because of its intrinsic interest and the possibilities it opens up; (3) whatever the final verdict on the new theory, both theory and evidence support the belief that significant long-run gains, even if not permanent changes in the growth rate, can be achieved by increased investment in the broadest sense, including human capital, technological knowledge, and industrial plant and equipment.Fifth Tinbergen Lecture delivered on October 4, 1991, in Amersfoort for the Royal Netherlands Economic Association 相似文献
15.
Summary When compared with other industrialized free-market economies, the United States has the highest per capita health expenditure, yet, Americans are the least satisfied with their health care system. This industry has been confronted with serious problems resulting in a departure from the Pareto efficient conditions. There are many circumstances under which this departure may occur, one such cause is market failure. Sources of market failure in the health care industry are identified as: 1) lack of competition; 2) insufficient information; 3) inadequate access to health care services; 4) presence of externalities; and 5) a persistent disequilibrium in the hospital, physicians, and nurses markets. The pricing of physician's services has often been described as that of a discriminating monopolist. Through market segmentation and patient demand manipulation the physician is able to charge different prices for virtually identical services. One form of market segmentation is that of physician specialization and sub-specializations thus contributing to the explosion in medical costs. This paper concludes that America's health care industry has reached a crossroad. A national health insurance is needed including the implementation of uniform pricing and the discouragement of sub-specializations with its price discriminatory practices. But National Health Insurance comes with a price of its own, the possible development of a medical-industrial complex.We are grateful to the anonymous referee(s) for valuable comments that enhanced the writing of this paper and we would like to extend our appreciation to Mr Qi Zhou, Graduate Assistant at Bryant College, for his contributions to this research project. 相似文献
16.
L.F.M. Groot 《De Economist》2001,149(2):219-232
High taxes and generous social benefits are often blamed for causing unemployment. The conventional view is that if taxes on labour are (too) high, jobs will be lost and that generous social benefits will exert an upward pressure on unions' wage claims. In the case where unions co-ordinate their wage bargaining strategy, this need not be the case. A simple model is used to illustrate the effects of the tax rate level and tax internalization on unions' wage bargaining strategy. A high marginal tax rate along with endogeneity of the average tax rate shifts the union's trade-off between wages and employment in favour of the latter. These shifts may have contributed to the success of the so-called polder model or tulip model of the Netherlands. 相似文献
17.
J. H. M. Donders 《De Economist》1985,133(4):545-557
Summary This paper examines the factors which determine the volume of consumption per capita in a small open economy in the long run. The analysis is based on a neoclassical model. It is proved that-in general — Phelps' golden rule of accumulation does not hold for an open economy. This conclusion follows from the decline in the terms of trade, which is generated in an open economy by an increase in the share of investment. The influence of labour supply and world expenditure on the consumption per capita also depend heavily on the induced change in the terms of trade. The analytical results of the model are illustrated by means of a few numerical examples.This paper is written within the framework of the research program Possibilities and Limitations of National and International Economic Policy, code K.H.T. XIII-85-44. 相似文献
18.
J. Pen 《De Economist》1974,122(5):387-398
Summary This is a review of some of Mrs. Joan Robinson's ideas, and the author's conclusion is that these ideas do not contribute to the present state of economic theory. Her view on international trade is lopsided, her criticism of traditional capital theory goes too far, her refutation of income distribution theory is mainly unfounded. Basically, Mrs. Robinson rejects the notion of relative scarcity of capital; the author believes that this is a useful notion in economics. Moreover, her recent work shows a strong anti-empiricist tendency. If Mrs. Robinson's negative train of thought were to be applied to all concepts of macro-economic theory (total labour force, real national income etc.) these concepts would vanish in thin air. The whole of macro-economics might go up in smoke. 相似文献
19.
Summary The paper deals with three different areas of the financial sphere: national moneys, exchange rates and financial claims, markets and institutions. For each of them, it tries to identify the main forms of instability which may occur, their causes and consequences for the real economy. Depending on the area concerned, the forms of instability include inflation, fluctuations and misalignments in interest rates, exchange rates and asset prices and finally solvency and liquidity crises of institutions. It is concluded that, over the last fifteen years, significant progress has been made in the policy framework to counteract instabilities in the national and monetary spheres. The conclusion is more mixed with regard to the structure of financial markets.[/p]We are grateful to Julian Alworth, Svein Andresen, Gavin Bingham, Joe Bisignano, Michael Hutchison and Paul van den Bergh for useful comments. 相似文献
20.
Summary To gain an empirical impression of the SDR's attractiveness as a reserve asset, an amended mean-variance analysis is applied to official reserves. The main amendments bear upon the choice of the numeraire and the rejection of both the capital market line and the effective yield's positive marginal utility-frequently assumed in empirical analysis. Comparison of the outcome with that recently obtained by Ben-Bassat shows a large sensitivity of optimal portfolio results for slight differences in assumptions. A second, substantial kind of sensitivity of an asset's position in a portfolio appears to ensue from the influence of other competing functions of reserves.The authors are Professor and Assistant Professor of International Economics, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. The research of the second author was financially supported by the Netherlands organization for the advancement of pure research (Z.W.O.), no. 46-108. This research is part of the project Exchange-rate and monetary policy in international dependence. The paper was presented earlier at the conference Research in international finance, Jouyen-Josas, France (June 19 and 20, 1986). Computational assistance by Jeannette Capel, Reiner Gratama, and Martin O. Nijkamp and comments by an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged. 相似文献