INFRASTRUCTURE,PUBLIC EDUCATION AND GROWTH WITH CONGESTION COSTS

This paper studies the implications of education quality for the optimal allocation of public expenditure in a simple endogenous growth model with mandatory schooling and infrastructure spillovers. Education quality is inversely related to the degree of congestion in schools, which is itself measured in two ways: the proportions of teachers and students in the population, and the ratio of government spending on education to teaching capacity. The balanced‐growth path is derived and the transitional dynamics associated with an increase in the degree of congestion are analysed. The growth‐maximizing share of government spending on education is shown to depend negatively on the congestion parameter. Policy implications for the ‘quantity versus quality’ debate in schooling are also discussed.     

MODELING AND MEASURING THE ECONOMIC ROLES OF TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE

Designing and managing an economy's technology infrastructure requires both accurate economic models and data to drive them. Previous models treat technology as a homogeneous entity, thereby precluding assessing investment barriers affecting infrastructure elements. The model presented overcomes this deficiency by disaggregating the knowledge production function into key elements of the typical industrial technology based on the distinctly different investment incentives associated with each element. Without such a model, the economist's ability to assess important market failures associated with investment in the major technology elements, including those with infrastructure (public-good) characteristics, is compromised. Unfortunately, even with the correct knowledge production function, the required data are difficult to collect. This forces government agencies, which fund a majority of technology infrastructure research, to use second-best approaches for economic analyses. The second half of this paper therefore presents an analytical framework that can be driven by more accessible data and provide reasonable impact assessments until better data become available.     

基础设施投资的经济增长效应

基础设施总投资、交通运输仓储和邮电通信投资以及电力、煤气及水生产与供应投资对产出具有较大、持久的正影响,时滞也相对较短;电力、煤气及水生产与供应投资对产出的正影响更大,并且对交通运输仓储和邮电通信投资也具有较大的正影响。我国基础设施投资效应的这些重要特征,对于我国宏观经济政策的制定、实施时机和基础设施投资领域的选择都具有重要意义。     

INFRASTRUCTURE AND PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY: AN ANALYSIS ON THE KOREAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

This study estimates an aggregate production function of manufacturing industry using panel data of 11 Korean regions covering 1977–1992. While the previous studies regard infrastructure as a direct input for production, the present study proposes that infrastructure has an effect on actual output by enhancing technical efficiency thereby, reducing the gap between maximum potential output and actual output. To investigate the relationship between infrastructure and technical efficiency, a stochastic frontier approach is applied to Korean manufacturing industry. Confirming the presence of substantial technical inefficiency in production, this study shows that an increase in infrastructure reduces the technical inefficiency level. The study also finds that, contrary to expectation, the industrialized regions are less efficient than the less industrialized ones. (JEL O20, H54, C23)     

均衡性转移支付、公共支出结构与经济高质量发展

本文首先从理论层面系统阐述均衡性转移支付、公共支出结构与经济增长质量三者之间的多重作用机制。其次立足“五大发展理念”构建综合指标体系对经济增长质量展开测度，本文发现我国地方经济增长质量虽然在整体上呈缓慢上升态势，但其绝对水平相对偏低，且具有较为明显的地区异质性。最后本文通过构建动态面板联立方程模型与采取三阶段最小二乘法进行实证考察，结果表明：地方政府公共支出结构与经济增长质量显著正相关，但均衡性转移支付与经济增长质量的正相关关系并不显著。标准化回归结果显示均衡性转移支付能够通过优化公共支出结构对地方经济增长质量产生间接提升效应。     

均衡性转移支付、公共支出结构与经济高质量发展

本文首先从理论层面系统阐述均衡性转移支付、公共支出结构与经济增长质量三者之间的多重作用机制。其次立足"五大发展理念"构建综合指标体系对经济增长质量展开测度,本文发现我国地方经济增长质量虽然在整体上呈缓慢上升态势,但其绝对水平相对偏低,且具有较为明显的地区异质性。最后本文通过构建动态面板联立方程模型与采取三阶段最小二乘法进行实证考察,结果表明:地方政府公共支出结构与经济增长质量显著正相关,但均衡性转移支付与经济增长质量的正相关关系并不显著。标准化回归结果显示均衡性转移支付能够通过优化公共支出结构对地方经济增长质量产生间接提升效应。     

AN ATTEMPT TO EXPLAIN DIFFERENCES IN ECONOMIC GROWTH: A STOCHASTIC FRONTIER APPROACH

Total factor productivity (TFP), factor accumulation, and growth are analysed for a panel of 40 countries in 2001–11. TFP growth and technical inefficiency are estimated using a stochastic frontier model. Environmental variables are found to have an important role in explaining differences in inefficiency across countries. Over 2001–11, the general improvement in technical efficiency of countries is almost outweighed by technological regress. Results indicate that differences in factor accumulation between OECD and emerging economies are more important than differences in TFP change to explain differences in economic growth. Results also indicate negative and significant random shocks for the OECD countries.     

PUBLIC EDUCATION, FERTILITY INCENTIVES, NEOCLASSICAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND WELFARE

Using a simple overlapping generations model of neoclassical growth, we analyse the effects of both child allowances and the system of public education on the rate of fertility, the per capita income and the individual lifetime welfare. The essential message of the present paper is that developed countries plagued by below-replacement fertility and income stagnation may raise per capita income and the rate of fertility at the same time by increasing the public education expenditure rather than by resorting to child allowances. The latter, in fact, are found to be harmful for long-run neoclassical economic growth and, in contrast with the common belief, for the rate of population growth as well. Moreover, welfare analysis has shown the existence of a Pareto-efficient welfare-maximizing educational contribution rate.     

京津都市区制造业劳动生产率变化的分解分析

以北京和天津为主体的大都市区,不仅是华北地区的经济核心区,更承担着全国参与世界经济竞争的职能,其中制造业仍是区域竞争能力演变的重要驱动因子,因此,增强京津都市区制造业的发展水平是提升本区国际竞争力的重要内容。该研究旨在对京津地区制造业的劳动生产率变化进行结构解析,明晰该区制造业劳动生产率变化的结构来源,为打造新型产业分工提供决策参考。研究表明,自1997—2007年间,北京和天津制造业的总体劳动生产率水平显著高于全国,大约相当于全国的2倍;研究期内京津地区的制造业生产效率均有显著增长,且自2005年以后天津制造业总体劳动生产率高于北京。采用Laspeyres指数分解法对京津两地制造业劳动生产率变化的结构分解结果表明:纯生产率效应即行业劳动生产率的变化是导致制造业整体劳动生产率变化的主要源泉,由劳动力等要素的流动导致的行业结构调整即结构红利效应并不显著。对制造业劳动生产率行业分解结果表明:京津两地制造业劳动生产率的变化主要源于通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业、交通运输设备制造业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业和化学原料及化学制品制造业等技术与规模经济指向型行业。结论主张京津地区制造业要尽快以新型产业分工为基础,根据城市自身优势,实现制造业产品和功能的差异化战略,共同打造全球重要的现代制造业基地。     

“去产能”政策是否提高公司绩效*——基于制造业上市公司的实证研究

党的十八大以来,中国积极调整经济结构,以推动经济由高速发展向高质量发展转型。而治理产能过剩作为结构调整的重要一环,对于促进相关行业有序健康发展具有重要意义。同时,产业政策的必要性与有效性仍是学术界争论的焦点。本文以中国“去产能”政策为研究对象,从抑制型产业政策的有效性出发,使用双重差分法（DID）分析了其对制造业类上市公司全要素生产率和利润等绩效指标的作用效果。研究发现,“去产能”政策对产能过剩行业的上市企业绩效影响呈现U型关系。短时间内,“去产能”政策会对企业绩效存在负面影响,但从更长时间维度看,则有利于企业绩效水平的提升。另外,本文采用不同的全要素生产率计算方法、更换核心解释变量测度方式以及进行随机分组运算等方法,分析结果依然稳健。本文的研究结果意味着,抑制型产业政策可以成为政府弥补市场失灵、促进产业高质量发展的有效政策工具。     

经济社会发展中的公害品:理论、形式及其治理

网络谣言、食品安全事故、信息泄露与环境污染等公害品是困扰当代中国经济社会发展的重大问题。本文从公共经济学视角出发,在厘清公害品的内涵及其总体特征的基础上,对束缚当代中国经济社会发展的公害品进行了效应与危害分析。为了促进中国社会的可持续发展,必须构建规范我国公害品问题的法制保障体系和公共政策体系,明晰政府、市场和第三部门的权责界定,唯有如此,才能将公害品的负外部性限制在最小范围之内,我国社会经济发展才
能真正走出公害品困境。     

中国制造业产业竞争力评价分析

加入WTO后,我国国民经济中各产业将面临新的竞争形势,正确评价制造业的区域竞争力,是保证我国国民经济健康发展的关键。本文利用1999-2003年我国工业企业数据,对我国制造业产业进行动态基本面分析,研究和评价我国制造业企业区域分布、企业规模状况、技术结构及企业类型。在对我国各区域制造业竞争力结构的稳定性进行考察后,对处于竞争力不同层次的省份进行了要素结构分析。     

DISCRIMINATING SHORT AND LONG MEMORY IN FINITE SAMPLES USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION TO GROWTH CONVERGENCE

The standard linear model where u_t is generated from an ARFIMA process, is considered. The sensitivity of the predictor and sensitivity of variance estimates of the linear model to long memory are investigated by constructing the statistical measures B_L/S and D_L/S , respectively. B_L/S and D_L/S is interpreted as a sensitivity measure for the long‐memory process without the short‐memory effects. As an application, the memory characteristics of per capita GDP of 30 countries are investigated from the Maddison GDP dataset. It is found that per‐capita GDP exhibits long memory characteristics, and the long‐run growth estimates are sensitive to the long memory characteristics.     

THE SOURCES OF AGGREGATE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: US MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES, 1958–1996

The sources of aggregate productivity growth are explored using detailed data for four‐digit US manufacturing industries during 1958–96 and a decomposition formula that allows us to quantify the contribution of structural change. Labour productivity as well as total factor productivity are considered with either value‐added or employment shares serving as aggregation weights. It is shown that structural change generally works in favour of industries with increasing productivity. This effect is particularly strong in the years since 1990, in high‐tech industries and in durable goods producing industries. The impact of the computer revolution can be clearly identified.     

农村金融与公共物品和服务:什么对小农户最重要

在发展中国家,对小农户最重要的是有一个稳定和有利的经济环境,这使他们能够将农业固有的不确定性转化为可以衡量的风险,减少和分散这些风险,降低经济活动的交易成本,进而通过提高获利能力来扩大其经营。政府持续地投资并提供公共物品及服务,对创造这样一种环境是至关重要的。因此,农村金融的重要性是显而易见的,因为它帮助小农户战胜贫苦的有效性很大程度上取决于小农户的经营是否是在这样的环境下进行。在中国农业经济和非农业经济快速转型的过程中,小农户大大地受益于政府持续地投资并提供公共物品及服务,以及增进的刺激。然而,尽管有这些重大成就,中国仍然存在着数百万的农村贫困人口,特别是在中西部地区。因此,中国政府面临的挑战是,要以一种穷人易于获得的方式,以及使他们更好地融入获利性的供应链,把他们与不断扩大的国内外市场联系在一起,持续投资并提供公共物品及服务。     

经济增长中的劳动结构效应*——一个分产业测算模型及其应用

本文在钱纳里等人（Chenery et al）［1］的模型基础上,发展出一个分产业测算模型。通过研究发现：1979-2012年间,全国劳动结构效应达1711 5个百分点,其中,第一产业、第二产业间劳动结构效应较大,但主要归功于东部,而中、西部地区第一产业、第二产业间劳动结构效应尚未得到充分发挥;同时,无论是东部,还是中、西部地区,第一产业、第三产业间劳动结构效应都较小。原因之一为第三产业发展滞后;原因之二为第三产业劳动生产率过低。