Bayesian updates using precursor events

It is common practice among technological forecasters to use precursor events to anticipate technological change. However, the information obtained from precursor events is usually qualitative in nature. A previous paper demonstrated that information about prior “similar” innovations can be used to generate a probability distribution of lag times between a precursor event and the event to be forecast, thus making the forecasts more quantitative. This paper presents a method for using Bayes' Equation to update probability distributions of lag time using the occurrence of additional precursor events.     

高管持股变动、技术创新与公司价值——基于不同产权性质的比较

以2012—2019年A股上市公司数据为样本，对高管持股变动、技术创新与公司价值的关系进行分析。结果表明：技术创新投入与产出对公司价值均具有正向影响，并且高管持股变动对上述影响具有显著正向调节作用。对不同产权性质公司而言，国有上市公司技术创新活动对公司价值的影响和高管持股变动对该影响的调节作用显著低于非国有上市公司。基于上述结论，从政府补贴、公司高管业绩考核和股权激励等方面提出相关建议。     

Critical Success Factors for Business Reengineering and Corporate Performance: The Case of Korean Corporations

This article briefly reviews the literature on business reengineering (BR), analyzes critical success factors (CSFs) for BR, develops a BR-CSFs model, empirically tests the model on Korean firms, and investigates the impact of BR on corporate performance in Korea. Many Korean firms are attempting to transform from Japanese- to American-style business management. As part of this process, BR has gained substantial critical mass as the first widely accepted American-born management methodology accepted in Korea. While Western-based BR methodologies provide general procedures and techniques the CSFs listed in this research focus on the key factors that Korean firms generally confront. In the present research, 20 CSFs, taken from a literature review were divided into four categories: strategic, organizational, methodological, and technological/educational. A survey was developed to assess the firm-specific importance and development of each of these CSFs. Survey responses from 162 Korean corporations indicate a positive association between the designated CSFs and corporate performance. Korean BR team leaders and CEOs/COOS rate “strategic” and “methodological” CSFs as most important while “organizational” and “technological/educational” CSFs are considered less important, a rank ordering challenged by the authors.     

高管薪酬结构与技术创新投入关系的实证研究——以中小企业板上市公司为例

以2009年披露创新投入的我国235家中小企业板上市公司为样本,实证检验了高管薪酬结构与企业技术创新投入的关系。研究结果表明,高管薪酬结构是影响企业技术创新投入的重要变量。具体表现为:高管薪酬水平和高管薪酬差距与技术创新投入正相关;具有技术背景的高管持股比例与创新投入的关系不显著。     

Technological generalizations and leitbilder—the anticipation of technological opportunities

Recent national technology foresight studies as well as the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University are very much based on “nodes of discussion.” These short statements are called, e.g., topics, issues, or developments. This article provides a framework for the classification and analysis of nodes related to future technological development. Key concepts of the article are “technological generalization” and “leitbild.” The topics in the technology foresight Delphi studies can be seen as different kinds of generalizations from already realized technological developments. Leitbild is a German word. Its most general meaning is a guiding image. Like a common vision, a leitbild creates a shared overall goal, offers orientation toward one long-term overall goal, and provides a basis for different professions and disciplines to work in the same direction. The analysis of leitbilder and emerging technological paradigms might contribute to the construction of topics and issues and to the argumentation processes related to them.     

Executive shareholding,compensation, and analyst forecast of Chinese firms

We examine the impact of executive and leadership shareholding and cash compensation on analyst forecast error and dispersion as proxies for information asymmetry. We find that firms pay higher compensation (or excess compensation) to executives and directors are associated with higher information asymmetry. The positive association is stronger where executives’ and directors’ shareholdings are higher. Shareholding appears to facilitate managerial entrenchment and gives highly paid executives/leadership stronger structural power which adversely affects information disclosure leading to larger forecast error and dispersion. These results are robust to different measures of compensation and alternative models controlling for the predictability of firm-level earnings. Our findings indicate that executive/director shareholding and compensation do not provide sufficient incentives for information disclosure by Chinese firms.     

The research strategy in management of technological innovation

The increasing importance of technology in the application world has imposed high demand on the research community for insightful and useful principles about “management of technological innovation” (MTI). This paper examines the academic legacy in terms of conceptual categories, causal relationships and taxonomy of relevant systems, and asserts from a system perspective that MTI as an applied science is still in its infancy.Based on methodological argument, this paper warns of the danger of hasty compromise of strategically important topics to “popular” definition of “researchability,” and suggests several research guidelines and approaches for this young interdisciplinary discipline:

1. (1)To explore new frontiers, use “proximate variables,” consider contextual factors and causation in broad terms, conceptualize “independently,” and pay more attention to case study method.

2. (2)To understand driving forces, be aware of practice, and focus on internal dynamics.

3. (3)To transcend complexity, adopt a hierarchical structure perspective and state-and-flow concept, and condense findings into configurations.

Finally, this paper urges the formation of an overall research strategy to accelerate the accumulation of MTI grounded knowledge.     

高管人力资本、高管报酬和公司绩效关系的实证研究——以中部地区上市公司为例

高管人力资本、高管报酬和公司绩效三者之间体现何种关系特征,是企业配置高管人员有效实施高管报酬激励的重要依据,是提升公司绩效的有效保证。本文的研究结果表明,高管的任期与公司绩效存在正相关关系,与高管报酬存在负相关关系;高管年龄与公司绩效存在负相关关系,与高管报酬存在正相关关系;高管的教育背景与公司绩效存在负相关关系,与高管报酬存在正相关关系。公司治理因素尤其是股权因素对高管人力资本特征与公司绩效、高管报酬的相关性有很大的影响。     

A reliability engineering approach for forecasting technological breakthroughs

One of the major attributes determining system reliability, the one that has received the most thorough and systematic study for many years, is system survival function. A “survival function” is a mathematical formula relating the probability of satisfactory performance of a system to time. Here, probability of satisfactory performance is synonymous with probability of nonfailure or probability of survival of a performing system.In breakthrough analysis of complex technological systems, the situation is somewhat similar but opposite to the above system reliability case. For breakthrough forecasting, the problem is to determine the probability of occurrence of success of a nonperforming system. Thus this paper presents a quantitative methodology for forecasting technological breakthroughs using a new concept of “attainability function,” derived in a similar fashion as the “reliability function.”     

高管过度自信、研发投入跳跃与企业绩效——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

基于间断平衡理论和高阶梯队理论，以2007-2017年中国沪深两市902家制造企业为样本，实证分析研发投入跳跃对企业绩效的影响以及高管过度自信的调节作用。结果显示：研发投入正向跳跃和负向跳跃均有助于提升企业绩效，高管过度自信正向调节研发投入跳跃与企业绩效间的关系。引入高管过度自信这一重要高管特征作为调节变量，有助于重新认识管理者心理偏差对企业创新行为和绩效的影响，较好地弥补了研发投入跳跃对企业绩效影响机制的研究空缺，丰富了创新间断平衡理论研究。研究表明，企业应重视高管心理特征的影响并结合自身实际情况，合理选择研发投入策略以改善企业绩效。     

On determining the future impacts of research and development solutions

The concept of a “forecasting graph” is used to develop answers to questions concerning the achievement of scientific and technological developments, the required time, estimates of manpower, equipment, and finacial resources for alternative pathways.     

高管的风险态度与股权激励方式选择*

公司如何选择有效的股权激励方式一直是理论研究的重要话题。本文以2006—2016年中国A股实行股权激励的上市公司为研究对象,探究高管的风险态度差异对上市公司股权激励方式选择的影响。研究结果显示,高管的风险回避倾向越强,公司越倾向于授予风险较大的股票期权方式激励高管,以激发高管的风险承担意愿;高管的风险承担水平越高,公司则越倾向于采用风险较小的限制性股票期权方式进行激励,以削弱高管的过度风险追求倾向。进一步研究表明,当股权激励方式基于风险承担与高管的风险态度相匹配时,公司会有更好的业绩表现。本文的研究结论为激励契约设计提供了重要启示。     

Structure and understanding: Some observations on current activities in the field of structural modeling

Structural modeling has been under study in recent years as a method for dealing with complex societal problems, and is growing in acceptance as a tool for understanding complex social phenomena. Structural models demonstrate the interactions of the separate elements of a system and their combined overall effect. Thus, the nature of the problem for which this method of analysis is appropriate is different from complex problems of the traditional disciplines which lend themselves to reductionist approaches. This is because complex policy problems of society cannot be “solved” with precise analysis. Kenneth Boulding suggests that there are two ways to cope with a complex policy problem, either to “slice” the problem into partial equilibrium sections or “squeeze” it by aggregating numerous variables into a single index or macho variable. Structural modeling is an approach which comes under the general strategy of squeezing the problem and is promising because of the ability to include a range of macro variables which provide insights about social change. The articles in this issue treat several interesting aspects of this approach. In this article we wish to recall for consideration a central purpose for developing such methods. We have taken a historical approach to indicate some of the roots of the concern for the effect of technological process on social change. Within this context, we discuss the nature of the contributions made by the articles in this issue and what promise the methods offer to addressing the historical concern.     

Technology evaluation in Taiwan's technology industries: Strategies, trajectories, and innovations

Technology evaluation, as an organizational process, is the essential ability to comprehend the values of technologies very soon after they emerge. Meanwhile, the technology evaluation process is inevitably influenced by the firm's industrial context, such as its technological trajectory. This study defines technology evaluation strategy in terms of the processes, methods, and participants involved, and uses this definition as a taxonomy to explore different types of technology evaluation strategies. A survey on the technological industries is conducted to explore types of technology evaluation strategies and their relationships with the advantages of different types of innovation under the effects of different technological trajectories. The survey identifies four types of technology evaluation strategies, namely, those of the flexible executive strategist, the emergent executive intuitionist, the deliberate quantitative strategist, and the deliberate consensual strategist, are identified. This study has found that certain types of technology evaluation strategies have better innovation performances than the others. The patterns of technological trajectories are also found to influence a firm's technology evaluation strategy and the advantages of certain types of innovations. The established explanations of the relationships among the technological trajectory, innovation type, and technology evaluation strategies may guide technology businesses to develop a better technology evaluation capability. The theoretical framework developed in this research enriches the strategic management literature with a new taxonomy for technology evaluation strategies.     

Use diffusion: An extension and critique

This study demonstrates that exponential modeling applies to the diffusion of foods. By using per capita data rather than gross consumption data, we show that this exponential process is not an artifact of a simultaneous population increase. However, whereas previous researchers predict that use diffusion continues indefinitely though at decreasing rates from one time period to the next, the present study demonstrates that it can end or even reverse, as well as attenuate. The extension of reinforcement theory in psychology to “social learning” theory is rejected as an explanation of this change, and the alternative “technological substitution” model is discussed.     

我国上市公司高管薪酬与盈余管理的关系

以2006—2009年我国上市公司为研究样本,以操纵性应计利润作为衡量盈余管理程度的代理变量,以高管年薪、持股水平分别作为衡量其短期、长期薪酬水平的代理变量,实证检验了上市公司高管的长、短期薪酬水平及两者的交叉变量与上市公司盈余管理的因果关系。结果显示:高管的短期薪酬是我国上市公司盈余管理的基本诱因之一;高管年薪与持股水平的相互作用也会加强上市公司的盈余管理行为。     

Technology, productivity, and organization

The on-coming age of changing technology and knowledge intensification, and its interactions with human values are expected to bring forth fundamental shifts in socioeconomic environment. The paper presents an overview of the dynamics of technological change, a hypothesis on productivity dynamics, and likely shifts in organizational structure. To cope with changes, organizational productivity has to be increasingly governed by human creativity and managerial effectiveness. The structure will be flatter, action-oriented, entrepreneurial, and, above all, flexible. By being organically alive, it will be different from conventional mechanical setups. The future will witness more of flexible manufacturing and flexible management systems and a change of emphasis from “management of technology” to “management of change”, governed by a multiperspective vision. The paper also analyzes major problems likely to be faced by developing countries in getting prepared for the future. In addition to their current focus on technological aspects, the Third World countries have to be seriously concerned about people and organizational issues.     

In search of a useful measure of technological innovation (to make economists happy without) discontenting technologists)

This article presents an exploration of the methology and measurement of technological innovation. It is based upon already available surveys and especially upon the SPRU data bank of innovations in Britain. The methodology proposed could be applied to the joint CNR-ISTAT survey being carried out on innovation diffusion in the Italian manufacturing industry. It is suggested that the empirical investigations already available or in progress should be exploited in order to develop a satisfactory theory of technological innovation. The article is also a contribution to the OECD move debate in order to reach aninternational standardization of methodologies and classifications of innovative activity.The author introduces a distinction between the objects and the subjects of technological change, and on this basis he makes a comparison between the two approaches, which emphasize alternatively “evolutionary” or “revolutionary” characteristics of technological change. It is argued that many of the present-day controversies arise from misunderstandings between those working in this field on the concepts and measurement methods employed. As a consequence, the debate has been continuing on different and noncomparable topics.It is argued that a standarization and a more accurate methodological precision on measuring technological innovation could have the salutory effect of removing the suspicion of heresy, which has so far kept the economics of technological change out of thoroughbred economic theory.It would be absolutely superflous to state the nature and number of the advantages of an instrument so excellent for the observation on both land and sea. But, leaving aside earthly considerations, I turned to heavenly speculation; and clearly saw the moon as near as though but two earthly radii distant. After this, to my spirit's incredible delight, I many times observed both the fixed and wandering stars. Since I saw they were very thick, I began to study a way to measure thier distance, which I finally found. On this point it is well that all those wishing to devote themselves to similar observations should be forewarned. In the first place, it is necessary to prepare a most accurate telescope, which represents the objects clearly and distinctly, not covered by any haze, […] in fact, if the instruments is not so, one will try in vain to see all the things I saw in the heavens.     

Leaders in change : Solar energy owners and the implications for future adoption rates

Information on the characteristics of the initial wave of homeowners who installed solar energy systems is presented and then used to anticipate future solar market penetration patterns. Surveys of these adopters reveal high education and income levels; professional and executive occupations; economic, energy saving, and environmental concern as the principal purchase motivations; and high satisfaction levels. As a group, these individuals conform to the “early adopter” type identified in innovation diffusion research rather than the “innovator” type that would be expected at this early stage of commercialization. This characteristic, the influence of economic motivations, owners' high satisfaction levels, and the findings of other surveys indicate that widespread solar system adoption is probable if the initial high cost barrier can be reduced.     

R&D cluster quality measures and technology maturity

“Innovation indicators” strive to track the maturation of an emerging technology to help forecast its prospective development. One rich source of information is the changing content of discourse of R&D, as the technology progresses. We analyze the content of research paper abstracts obtained by searching large databases on a given topic. We then map the evolution of that topic's emphasis areas.The present research seeks to validate a process that creates factors (clusters) based on term usage in technical papers. Three composite quality measures—cohesion, entropy, and F measure—are computed. Using these measures, we create standard factor groupings that optimize the composite term sets and facilitate comparisons of the R&D emphasis areas (i.e., clusters) over time.The conceptual foundation for this approach lies in the presumption that domain knowledge expands and becomes more application specific in nature as a technology matures. We hypothesize implications for this knowledge expansion in terms of the three factor measures, then observe these empirically for the case of a particular technology—autonomous navigation. These metrics can provide indicators of technological maturation.