THE SENSITIVITY OF CAPITAL SERVICES MEASUREMENT: MEASURE ALL ASSETS AND THE COST OF CAPITAL

The measurement of capital inputs is still a contentious issue: many choices have to be made that have potentially large effects on the resulting capital input series. This paper compares a large number of methodological choices and their impact on U.S. capital services at the industry and aggregate level. The results show that the set of capital assets covered and the choice for the rate of return matter substantially, while other choices are less important. I argue that land, inventories, and intangible capital should be included and that for pragmatic reasons, an external cost of capital is preferable to an internal rate of return because of its transparency and robustness to measurement error.     

核电的经济特性及其安全性管制的有效性分析

核电是一种清洁能源,在能源供给方面具有很大优势,但核电存在巨大的安全风险。核电的经济特性决定了核电安全管制需求。以管制经济学为研究视角,本文将核电安全性管制措施分为行政强制手段为主的直接安全性管制和以经济手段为主的间接安全性管制两大类。研究发现,核电企业投入和安全管制检查频次与事故发生概率密切相关。核电企业的安全投入会随着安全隐患风险程度的增加而增加,并且也会随着被发现安全隐患事件带来企业损失的增加而增加。核电企业因被管制检查发现的安全隐患所承受的损失太小是造成安全管制检查失效或产生负面效应的根源。据此,本文提出相应的政策建议,以提高核电安全性管制的有效性。     

THE SYSTEMATIC RISK OF DEBT: AUSTRALIAN EVIDENCE*

This paper examines systematic risk (betas) of Australian government debt securities for the period 1979–2004 and makes three contributions to academic research and practical debate. First, the empirical work provides direct evidence on the systematic risk of government debt, and provides a benchmark for estimating the systematic risk of corporate debt which is relevant for cost of capital estimation and for optimal portfolio selection by asset managers such as superannuation funds. Second, analysis of reasons for non‐zero (and time varying) betas for fixed income securities aids understanding of the primary sources of systematic risk. Third, the results cast light on the appropriate choice of maturity of risk free interest rate for use in the Capital Asset Pricing Model and have implications for the current applicability of historical estimates of the market risk premium. Debt betas are found to be, on average, significantly positive and (as expected) closely related, cross sectionally, to duration. They are, however, subject to significant time series variation, and over the past few years the pre‐existing positive correlation between bond and stock returns appears to have vanished.     

政府行为、系统性风险与金融稳定性

通过企业、银行、地方政府和中央政府四方目标函数的分析和构建博弈模型的论证,得到的结论是:以GDP等数量指标为导向的政绩考核制度和中央与地方之间存在严重的信息不对称,是近年来中央政府时常陷入“经济增长与宏观调控两难”窘境的主要原因。为此,必须尽快改革政绩考核制度,创建银行信贷监测系统,提高中央对地方经济相关信息的可获得性,有效地导向地方政府行为,在制度上提高金融稳定性和管理的科学性。     

MEASURING AND DECOMPOSING CAPITAL INPUT COST

The measurement of total factor productivity change (or difference) vis‐à‐vis labor productivity change crucially depends on the measurement and decomposition of capital input cost. This paper discusses the basics of its measurement and shows that one can dispense with the usual neoclassical assumptions. By virtue of its structural features, the measurement model is applicable to individual establishments and aggregates such as industries, sectors, or economies.     

香港引入核电及天然气发电的前因后果

香港无能源生产,所耗用之能源皆需进口;由于香港基本上为一个大都市,因而电力在能源经济中扮演举足轻重的角色,战后香港每年耗能的一半以上用于发电,近年电力的销售金额为各项能源之冠,１９９６年占总销售量的５７％,１９９４年香港开始引入广东大亚湾的核电,１９９６年由海南省的崖城天然气田输入天然气作发电之用,本文主要剖析引入电及天然气的前因后果。     

EX POST VERSUS EX ANTE MEASURES OF THE USER COST OF CAPITAL

Should we use ex post or ex ante measures of user costs to calculate the contribution of capital in a growth accounting exercise? The answer, based on a simple model of temporary equilibrium, is that ex post is better in theory. In practice researchers usually calculate ex post user costs by assuming that the rate of return is equalized across assets. But this is only true if expectations are correct. In general, the ex post rate of return differs between assets, even though ex ante it is the same. I propose a hybrid method. The index of capital services is estimated using ex ante weights; the contribution of capital is the growth of this index multiplied by the ex post income share of capital. I show that this method is theoretically correct if the production function is CES. I compare the ex post, ex ante and hybrid methods using data for 31 U.K. industries from 1970 to 2000.     

POWER SUPPLY EXPANSION AND THE NUCLEAR OPTION IN POLAND

This paper describes the construction of a data set of the Polish power sector for use with the Elfin capacity expansion planning model. Using Elfin, the paper derives four scenarios and some sensitivities for new generating capacity construction plans. These scenarios simulate choices among several generic generating technologies made to achieve the lowest overall net present cost of operating the power system through 2015. Key results include: (i) single-cycle natural gas-fired combustion turbines prove highly attractive for Poland because of its urgent need for peaking capacity, (ii) nuclear power cannot be excluded from consideration for Poland on economic grounds alone, (iii) the effectiveness of conservation to reduce airborne emissions is limited under scenarios in which nuclear generation is adopted, and (iv) the attractiveness of nuclear is shown to be highly sensitive to assumptions on some uncertain inputs, suggesting the need for a more detailed analysis before policy implications can be drawn.     

诉讼风险、资金持有与企业资产配置

本文以企业的固定资产和金融资产配置为切入点,选用2001—2015年所有A股非金融类上市公司的诉讼数据,实证检验了诉讼风险对企业资产配置决策的影响。结果表明,诉讼风险对企业资产配置具有负向调节作用,尤其显著缩减了金融资产的配置规模和比例;诉讼风险对非国有企业及中西部地区企业资产配置的冲击更为明显;诉讼风险的作用机理是资金削弱效应,即减少内部可用现金流和提高外部可融资金成本。本文的研究为我国市场经济法制建设的完善和企业投融资决策提供了启示。     

IS THE COST OF DEBT CAPITAL HIGHER FOR YOUNGER FIRMS?

Not much is known about the returns to aging (maturing) in the market for small business finance. Using a large panel of closely held micro firms, we document that the cost of debt capital is higher for young firms. The main finding of this paper is that this negative qualitative relation is also obtained when cross‐sectional variation in unobservable creditworthiness of small businesses and within‐firm (i.e., inter‐temporal) variation in their observable creditworthiness are held constant. We control for the former by firm‐specific fixed effects and for the latter by a commercial credit score. We also provide an estimate of the quantitative magnitude of the aging effect, on which both economic theory and earlier empirical research are silent. We find that when a small business ages one year, its cost of debt capital decreases by 1–2 basis points. The effect is neither negligible nor alarmingly large.     

TIME AND THE COST OF CHILDREN

This paper uses the "adult goods" method to estimate the full costs of children. Full costs include both expenditure and time costs. Adult personal time (comprising pure leisure, sleep and other personal care) is used as the adult good. Previous research has shown that the presence of children in the household leads to a reduction in adult personal time. This paper develops a simple economic model of the household to show how this information can be used to develop an equivalence scale for adult consumption that takes account of both the expenditure and time costs of children. Preliminary estimates using Australian data suggest a very large cost—much higher than that typically assumed for expenditure costs. The full cost of children declines with age, despite the expenditure cost rising. The paper discusses the limitations of the adult good method and the assumptions needed to draw welfare conclusions from these and other estimates of child costs.     

IDIOSYNCRATIC RISK,AGGREGATE RISK,AND THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL SECURITY

We ask whether a pay‐as‐you‐go financed social security system is welfare improving in an economy with idiosyncratic and aggregate risk. We show that the whole welfare benefit from insurance against both risks is greater than the sum of benefits from insurance against the isolated risks. One reason is the convexity of the welfare gain. The other reason is a direct risk interaction amplifying the utility losses from risk. Our quantitative evaluation shows that introducing a minimum pension leads to sizeable welfare gains, despite substantial crowding out. About 60% of these gains would be missing from summing up the isolated benefits.     

中国资本流动风险预警研究

借鉴FR早期风险预警模型的研究方法,建立适用于预测我国资本流动脆弱性风险的预警系统。我国从未发生过货币危机,在风险预警模型建立时,只能使用我国资本流动脆弱性的变化作为被解释变量。通过计量分析发现:外汇储备/GDP、外汇储备/M2、GDP增长率与我国资本流动脆弱性变化相关性最强,应当作为我国当前预防资本流动脆弱性恶化的重点检测指标。     

HUMAN CAPITAL AND THE PROBABILITY OF DIVORCE

Concern about the high poverty rates experienced by children in female‐headed households has led to policies aimed at increasing these households' income. In this paper we present a model that analyses decisions made before and during marriage to invest in the human capital of parents and children. These decisions result from a variety of anticipated post‐divorce monetary transfers between spouses.