International spillovers of China's structural reforms

This paper sheds light on the international spillovers of China's reforms in upgrading industrial capabilities, liberalizing capital account, internationalizing the renminbi, and transition to flexible exchange rates. Drawing on two-country New Keynesian model of endogenous entry and portfolio adjustment, we find that China's industrial upgrading that peddles on yuan appreciation lifts all boats through global production network irrespective of capital account convertibility, degree of renminbi internationalization, and exchange rate reform. Feasibility of appreciation-driven upgrading is called into question, however, when renminbi reform and capital account liberalization go in parallel. We also show that international spillovers disappear once renminbi internationalization is associated with liberalized capital account and flexible renminbi exchange rates.     

Dynamics of capital account and current account in Sri Lanka

This paper enquires the dynamics of current account and capital account in Sri Lanka for the period 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q1 and also examines the role of some policy variables such as exchange rate and interest rate in this dynamics. Estimated autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration followed by error correction representation of the ARDL model have found that current account is caused by capital account and exchange rate, where capital account causes to produce a deficit in current account. In the dynamic adjustment of current account due to exchange rate, an evidence of J-curve phenomenon is noticed. Capital account is neither caused by current account nor by exchange rate but interest rate has a positive impact on it. Robustness of these findings is testified by the vector autoregression model, Wald test of Granger causality followed by an impulse response analysis and a variance decomposition analysis. These analyses, in addition, establish a negative impact of interest rate on current account. With the best of knowledge this is the first study that reveals the dynamics of current and capital account of Sri Lanka. Such a dynamics is critical from the policy perspective. Policy makers should caution before capital account liberalization.     

浮动汇率制度下资本项目开放国际经验与启示

随着国际金融方面改革的深入,我国资本项目开放不断地面临新的环境和形势,汇率政策的变动就是其中之一。以更具弹性的浮动汇率制度为背景,分析其他国家在浮动汇率制度下开放资本项目的经验,总结出开放的条件和步骤的一般规律,并进一步得出对我国现实的政策启示,将有助于我国在今后的改革中有针对性地防范风险,也有助于我国稳步实现资本项目下的完全可兑换。     

资本项目可兑换与汇率制度的互动协调分析

资本项目可兑换与汇率制度相互作用、相互协调.一方面,市场化汇率制度是资本项目可兑换的前提和基础;另一方面,资本项目可兑换决定均衡汇率,并促进汇率制度弹性化和市场化.随着中国经济不断发展和日益融入国际经济体系,中国应进一步开放资本项目,相应地逐步增大汇率制度的弹性空间,最终实现资本项目可兑换和浮动汇率制度.     

Surges

This paper examines when and why capital sometimes surges to emerging market economies (EMEs). Using data on net capital flows for 56 EMEs over 1980−2011, we find that global factors, including US interest rates and investor risk aversion act as “gatekeepers” that determine when surges of capital to EMEs will occur. Whether a particular EME receives a surge, and the magnitude of that surge, however, depends largely on domestic factors such as its external financing need, capital account openness, and exchange rate regime. Differentiating between surges driven by exceptional behavior of asset flows (repatriation of foreign assets by domestic residents) from those driven by exceptional behavior of liability flows (nonresident investments into the country), shows the latter to be relatively more sensitive to global factors and contagion.     

Boom‐and‐bust Cycles,External Imbalances and the Real Exchange Rate

When the current account balance and net capital outflows do not exactly offset each other, international payment flows arise. Payment flows into a country push the real exchange rate up, payment outflows push it down. This article uses a model of optimal consumption and portfolio choice to determine the factors that drive international payment flows during boom‐and‐bust cycles. It shows that during such episodes, capital inflows first exceed the deficit on current account, strengthening the currency. Later on, when the return on domestic capital reverts to its normal level, the current account recovers, yet the overall decline of the net foreign asset position provokes a fall of the real exchange rate even below its initial level. Case studies of countries experiencing rapid economic expansions followed by economic and financial meltdowns confirm the article's theoretical predictions.     

INTEREST RATE,DEBT, DISTRIBUTION AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION IN A POST‐KALECKIAN MODEL

In the present paper we extend Lavoie's (Metroeconomica, 1995, vol. 46, pp. 146–177) ‘Minsky–Steindl’ model, building our analysis on a Kaleckian distribution and growth model which has already taken into account distribution effects of interest rate variations on the short‐run equilibrium. Into this model the effects of debt and debt services are explicitly introduced and the effects of interest rate variations on the short‐ and the long‐run equilibrium are derived. It is shown that the effects of interest rate variations on the endogenously determined equilibrium values of the model not only depend on the parameter values in the saving and investment functions but also on the interest elasticity of distribution and on initial conditions with respect to the interest rate and the debt–capital ratio.     

Macroeconomic effect of capital controls as a safeguard against the capital inflow problem

Concerns that a rapid surge in capital inflow leads to loss of autonomy in macroeconomic policy, and that its reversal has significant negative effects on an economy, have motivated capital controls during the 1990s. Under a fixed exchange rate system without capital-account restrictions, a decrease in world nominal interest rates causes in a small open economy a deterioration in the current account, real exchange rate appreciation, and inflationary pressure, as pointed out by Calvo et al. (, ). This paper examines macroeconomic effects of capital-account restrictions as a policy response to the capital inflow problem under fixed exchange rates. Theoretical analysis shows that capital-account restrictions not only stem the capital inflow but also reverse the associated macroeconomic effects. The model implies that capital-account restrictions are effective measures against the capital inflow problem of emerging markets in the 1990s.     

The Internationalization of Capital in a Small and Vulnerable Economy

Summary

Since the early 1980s, Ecuador has increasingly adopted a pro-free trade posture and has removed most restrictions on its capital account. Foreign capital, however, has not penetrated key sectors of the economy as the privatization drive has stalled and financial markets have remained weak. The combination of open capital accounts and meager foreign capital inflows has not proven particularly beneficial to Ecuador. Specifically, some aspects of the internationalization of capital such as offshore banking have created significant limitations for the conduct of monetary and exchange rate policy and have added to the vulnerability of the country in the face of economic crises. These negative externalities of cross-border short-term capital movements are not balanced by inflows of long-term foreign capital.     

On the Link Between Exchange‐rate Regimes,Capital Controls and Monetary Policy Autonomy in Small European Countries, 1979–2000

We investigate international monetary‐policy transmission under different exchange‐rate and capital‐account regimes in eleven small, open economies during the 1980s and 1990s. We find no systematic link between ex‐post monetary‐policy autonomy and exchange‐rate regimes. Capital controls appear to have provided a degree of temporal insulation from foreign monetary policy shocks, though not strict autonomy. The results are consistent both with short‐term autonomy for small countries even under fixed exchange rates and an open capital account, and with long‐term dependence under flexible exchange rates and an independent stability target. Results also indicate that euro‐area market interest rates are significantly more responsive to the development of the corresponding US rate than were the previous national rates.     

人民币跨境流动自由度的测算——基于资本项目名义开放指数的借鉴

长期以来,人们只看重货币国际化结果,以占全球贸易计价结算比重、外汇交易比重、国际债券比重、外汇储备比重等相关指标衡量一国货币的国际化程度,而忽视货币跨境流动放松过程,即一国货币的跨境流动自由化程度。货币国际化是一个过程又是一种结果,包含进程和结果两个层面,在货币国际化进程中,过早过快放松本币流出入会引发经济金融风险,某些情形下进程比结果更值得关注。构建人民币跨境自由度指数涉及强度赋值、项目设置和权重确定三方面内容。在梳理2019年第2季度前我国货币政策基础上,对2008年至2019年经常项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度、证券投资项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度以及资本项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度进行评估,并以美国近5年各项目下的资金流动平均占比为权重,构建了人民币跨境流动自由化指数,考察2008—2019年人民币跨境流动自由化程度,结果显示人民币国际化进展较快,跨境流动已得到很大程度放松,而且人民币流入自由程度显著高于流出自由度。我国人民币国际化进程应持续遵循先经常项目后资本项目、先流入后流出、先机构后个人、先大额后小额、先风险小项目后风险大项目的次序,提高人民币跨境流动的稳定性,降低无序流动的投机风险;严格管控证券投资、其他投资、衍生品项目下人民币跨境流动,并依据我国利率市场化程度、金融市场发达程度及审慎监管能力进行调整;大力提升经常项目的人民币结算比重,发展人民币离岸市场,提高非居民间的人民币使用频率和使用规模;充分评估各项目下人民币跨境流动和本外币兑换自由度,提高两者的协同匹配程度,降低因两者不匹配而产生的负面影响。     

Money,saving and growth in an international economy with perfect capital mobility

The effects of differential national saving rates on current accounts, foreign indebtedness and the welfare of the countries involved are examined within the framework of a two-country, three-asset and one-good model of growth with international capital mobility. It is argued that the persistent current account imbalance and its implied national indebtedness are a natural consequence of differential national saving rates in the world of integrated capital markets, that any direct interference hampering an orderly flow of capital makes both countries worse off, that changes in the exchange rate mainly reflect the differential growth rates of two currencies and have little effect on the current account, and that persistent current account deficits do not necessarily imply an ever-increasing debt burden. While an increase in the saving rate of the high-saving country benefits the low-saving country, an increase in the saving rate of the low-saving country harms the high-saving country both in the short run and the long run.     

An asset-pricing view of external adjustment

Recent literature has argued that conventional measures of external sustainability - the trade balance and current account - are misleading because they omit capital gains on net foreign asset positions. We adjust the definition of the current account to include the capital gains and discuss how this may affect our thinking about external adjustment and sustainability. We do so in the context of a two-country macro-finance model of Pavlova and Rigobon (2008a) that allows exploration of the interconnections between equilibrium portfolios and external accounts' dynamics. We calibrate the model and find that it generates several testable implications, some of which have already been validated empirically. First, we establish dynamic properties of the capital-gains adjusted current account and show that they are fundamentally different from those of the conventional current account. Second, we find that capital gains have a stabilizing effect on the trade balance and the current account. Finally, we demonstrate that in response to a shock, the conventional and the capital-gains adjusted current accounts may move in opposite directions.     

Problems of developing and transition economies

ABSTRACT

The Solow growth model was extended to account for the graft by corrupt individuals from domestic savings, which could have been used for productive capital accumulation, the productive stock of capital to be augmented by foreign direct investment (FDI), and the expatriation by FDI international investors. The results indicate that higher levels of FDI inflows, savings rates, and more advanced technology embedded productive capital would result in higher steady-state per capita productive capital to labor ratio. The graft from domestic savings, expatriation of FDI, and growth rate of labor negatively affect steady-state per capita productive capital to labor ratio.     

The Impact of Capital Market Integration on Educational Choice and the Consequences for Economic Growth

This paper examines the impact of capital market integration on higher education and the link to economic growth. The analysis takes into account that participation in higher education is non‐compulsory and depends on individual choice. Due to capital–skill complementarity, integration increases (reduces) the incentives to participate in higher education in capital‐importing (‐exporting) economies, all other things equal. From a national policy point of view, public education expenditure should increase after integration of similar economies in order to attract mobile capital. Using foreign direct investment as a measure of capital flows, we present empirical evidence which largely confirms our main hypothesis: an increase in net capital inflows in response to capital market integration raises participation in higher education. In addition, we show that the adjustment in educational attainment is an empirically relevant channel through which capital inflows foster economic growth.     

Aid and Trade Sustainability under Liberalisation in Least Developed Countries

This study investigates the effect of trade liberalisation on export growth, import growth, the trade balance and the current account of the balance of payments in 17 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) over the period 1970 to 2001. The paper also assesses the marginal relation between capital flows (e.g. aid flows) and import growth, and the trade balance and the current account of the balance of payments. The higher import growth contrasts with the more modest export growth following trade liberalisation and that has fundamental policy implications, especially for the balance of trade and the balance of payments. However, the financing and sustainability of the trade deficit in the reforming countries will depend not only on the outcome of trade liberalisation, but also on other macroeconomic policies, developments in the real exchange rate and the inflows of foreign capital.     

Commodity prices and exchange rate volatility: Lessons from South Africa's capital account liberalization

We examine the relationship between the South African Rand and the gold price volatility using monthly data for the period 1979–2010. Our main finding is that prior to capital account liberalization the causality runs from the South African Rand to the gold price volatility but the causality runs the other way around for the post-liberalization period. This finding suggests that gold price volatility plays a key role in explaining both the excessive exchange rate volatility and current disproportionate share of speculative (short-run) inflows that South Africa has been coping with since the opening up of its capital account.     

Optimal borrowing constraints and growth in a small open economy

Chinese high growth has been accompanied by government restrictions on international borrowing (capital controls). In this paper, we ask: are such restrictions a useful policy tool to facilitate growth? We provide a theory of borrowing constraints on households as a tool to correct a learning-by-doing externality. Borrowing constraints operate as a policy tool through two channels: (i) increasing labor supply and (ii) reallocating labor towards traded goods. We find that welfare gains are closest to that of the First-Best Planner allocation when the externality is not too large. We compute the sequence of optimal constraints along the growth path and show how the use of this policy tool contributes to repressed wages, current account balance, and slow real exchange rate appreciation.     

Optimal borrowing constraints and growth in a small open economy

Chinese high growth has been accompanied by government restrictions on international borrowing (capital controls). In this paper, we ask: are such restrictions a useful policy tool to facilitate growth? We provide a theory of borrowing constraints on households as a tool to correct a learning-by-doing externality. Borrowing constraints operate as a policy tool through two channels: (i) increasing labor supply and (ii) reallocating labor towards traded goods. We find that welfare gains are closest to that of the First-Best Planner allocation when the externality is not too large. We compute the sequence of optimal constraints along the growth path and show how the use of this policy tool contributes to repressed wages, current account balance, and slow real exchange rate appreciation.     

The China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone: Background,Developments and Preliminary Assessment of Initial Impacts

The China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (SPFTZ) founded one year ago is a trial for China's new round of reform and opening up, which has promised liberalisation on the capital account and trade facilitation as its main objectives. Here, we discuss why China adopted such a pilot zone after three decades of economic development, and explore what the differences are between the SPFTZ and other free trade areas, and developments of the SPFTZ in the past year. We also make a preliminary assessment of the SPFTZ's initial impacts, especially of its impact on China's capital account opening and financial liberalisation. It is possible that the successful practice of the SPFTZ and more pilot policies replicated in China will give rise to a more balanced Chinese economy in the following decade.