Decreasing Marginal Impatience and Capital Accumulation in a Two‐Country World Economy

This research is the first to examine dynamic general equilibrium in a growing two‐country economy under decreasing marginal impatience (DMI). The stability condition is shown to be more restrictive than in the case of an endowment economy and/or under increasing marginal impatience (IMI). By analyzing global‐economy adjustment to time preference shocks, international transfers and productivity shocks, equilibrium dynamics in the presence of DMI differ drastically from what is obtained when the standard IMI model is used. For example, in a country characterized by DMI, a positive productivity shock improves the country's welfare level and lowers its steady‐state time preference and, hence, the steady‐state interest rate. This leads to an increase in the neighbouring country's capital stock.     

Back to the sixties: A note on multi‐primary‐factor linear models with homogeneous capital

This paper extends Bruno's ( 1967 ) one capital good two‐sector growth model with discrete technology by allowing for multiple primary factors of production. While the existence of an optimal steady state is established for any positive rate of discount, an example in which three “modified golden rules” exist shows that the optimal steady state is not necessarily unique. The extended model provides a simple exemplification of the more general principle that the presence of multiple primary factors of production in homogeneous capital models can definitively result in the same complications that arise when there is joint production.     

How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States

Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series relative to an aggregate of industrialized countries, this paper provides new evidence on the dynamic effects of government spending and technology shocks on the real exchange rate and the terms of trade. To achieve identification, we derive robust restrictions on the sign of several impulse responses from a two-country general equilibrium model. We find that both the real exchange rate and the terms of trade—whose responses are left unrestricted—depreciate in response to expansionary government spending shocks and appreciate in response to positive technology shocks.     

Induced Innovation,Endogenous Technical Change and Income Distribution in a Labor‐Constrained Model of Classical Growth

We present a steady state analysis of a labor‐constrained classical growth model with endogenous direction and intensity of technical change. Firms use retained profits to raise their productive capacity and to improve labor and capital productivities. Investments are planned to maximize instantaneous profits. Comparative dynamics exercises show that (1) an increase in the saving rate and in R&D subsidies raises the steady state labor share, labor productivity growth and the employment rate, and (2) a rise in workers' bargaining power reduces the employment rate while leaving productivity growth and distribution unaffected.     

Consumer and Corporate Debt: A Neo‐Kaleckian Synthesis

We present a neo‐Kaleckian growth model with both consumer and corporate debt. The model's macrodynamic and stability characteristics differ from singleߚdebt models, yet some steadyߚstate results persist. For example, a surge in ‘animal spirits’ is good for steadyߚstate growth, and consumer borrowing can help to sustain aggregate demand. Stable steady states are characterized by a kind of ‘euthanasia of the rentier’. Consumer credit conditions influence effective demand, the profit rate and economic growth. Looser consumer credit conditions have a steadyߚstate growth effect and can enhance system stability. In this restricted sense, looser consumer credit conditions are good for macroeconomic stability.     

GROWTH,STAGNATION AND STATUS PREFERENCE

We show that an economy grows or stagnates depending on which of three objects people most esteem as tokens of status. If the main object of status preference is consumption, then a steady state with full employment is reached. If it is physical capital (which is a producible asset), then permanent growth with full employment occurs. However, if it is money (which is not a producible asset), stagnation with persistent unemployment arises.     

On the Causes and Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana

What drives exchange rate volatility, and what are the effects of fluctuations in the exchange rate on economic growth in Ghana? These questions are the subject matter of this study. The results showed that while shocks to the exchange rate are mean reverting, misalignments tend to correct very sluggishly, with painful consequences in the short run as economic agents recalibrate their consumption and investment choices. About three quarters of shocks to the real exchange rate are self-driven, and the remaining one quarter or so is attributed to factors such as government expenditure and money supply growth, terms of trade and output shocks. Excessive volatility is found to be detrimental to economic growth; however, this is only up to a point as growth-enhancing effect can also emanate from innovation, and more efficient resource allocation.     

The impact of COVID-19 on the evolution of online retail: The pandemic as a window of opportunity

Pandemic-related shocks have induced an unexpected volatility into the evolution of online sales, making it difficult for retailers to cope with frequently occurring, drastic changes in demand. Relying on a socio-technical approach, the purpose of this paper is to (a) offer a deeper insight into the driving forces of online sales during the pandemic, and (b) investigate whether pandemic-related shocks accelerate the long-term growth of online retail. Novel, high-frequency data on GPS-based population mobility and government stringency is used to demonstrate how time spent in residential areas and governmental restrictions drive the monthly evolution of online sales in 23 countries. We deconstruct these effects into three main phases: lure-in, lock-in, and phase-out. Lastly, using time series analysis, we show that the pandemic has induced a level shift into the long-term growth trend of the online retail sector in the majority of countries investigated.     

Monetary policy in developing countries: lessons from Kenya

We estimate and then simulate a model of Kenyan economic development from 1965 to 1997 with two objectives in mind. The first is to demonstrate the degree of volatility of cyclical shocks that developing countries experience and to calculate the domestic nominal adjustments required by these shocks under both irrevocably fixed and free exchange rates.A comparison of these counterfactual nominal adjustments identifies the short-run implications for an economy of the choice of exchange rate regime. The second objective is to provide an estimate of the consequences for the economic development of Kenya of the lack of a coherent monetary order (excessive domestic credit expansion and overvalued exchange rate) throughout most of the period since 1965.A neoclassical convergence growth model based on Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992) is employed and calibrated to represent the long-run growth path of real GDP in Kenya. A short-run four-sector CGE model is constructed that allows for cyclical movements of real GDP about the convergence growth path. The cyclical model focuses on the adjustment of the relative price of non-traded goods that is required to ensure short-run equilibrium in the non-traded goods sector. Given that terms of trade shocks dominated the macro environment of Kenya over the sample period, we find that a free exchange rate regime would have insulated the economy to a greater degree than an irrevocably fixed regime. In the growth decomposition exercise, we estimate that the two largest (and negative) influences on Kenyan economic growth were the decline in the external terms of trade from 100 in 1965 to an average of 79.5 over the 32-year time period, and the overvalued Kenyan shilling represented by a premium on the parallel market for foreign exchange. Overall, we estimate that the overvalued exchange rate reduced economic growth by an average of 0.47 per cent per annum over the 32 years.     

A model of endogenous growth that elucidates the complexity of South–North convergence

This North–South model of Schumpeterian endogenous growth combines a market, productivity and knowledge effect. Depending upon the interaction of these effects, various convergent and divergent South–North growth paths occur: for example, full or partial convergence of the Southern technology level to the Northern one, conditional convergence or divergence depending upon the Southern initial technology level and absorptive capacity, higher or lower as well as decreasing or increasing growth rates during the phase of catching up, and equal or higher growth rates of the South compared to the North after catching up. This set of growth paths can better explain the diversity of the empirical observations for economies at different income and technology levels than those generated by existing models. In this new model, convergence based on North–South trade and associated flows of patents (innovations) is guaranteed if the knowledge effect dominates the productivity effect. A larger Southern market expands the area of convergence and can prevent divergence. Not only a larger Southern market, but also a higher Southern steady state growth rate benefit the North so that convergence is desirable for both, the South and the North.     

Modeling preference evolution in discrete choice models: A Bayesian state-space approach

We develop discrete choice models that account for parameter driven preference dynamics. Choice model parameters may change over time because of shifting market conditions or due to changes in attribute levels over time or because of consumer learning. In this paper we show how such preference evolution can be modeled using hierarchial Bayesian state space models of discrete choice. The main feature of our approach is that it allows for the simultaneous incorporation of multiple sources of preference and choice dynamics. We show how the state space approach can include state dependence, unobserved heterogeneity, and more importantly, temporal variability in preferences using a correlated sequence of population distributions. The proposed model is very general and nests commonly used choice models in the literature as special cases. We use Markov chain monte carlo methods for estimating model parameters and apply our methodology to a scanner data set containing household brand choices over an eight-year period. Our analysis indicates that preferences exhibit significant variation over the time-span of the data and that incorporating time-variation in parameters is crucial for appropriate inferences regarding the magnitude and evolution of choice elasticities. We also find that models that ignore time variation in parameters can yield misleading inferences about the impact of causal variables. This paper is based on the first author's doctoral dissertation.     

South-north trade and southern growth: Bleak prospects from the structuralist point of view

A three-country, three-commodity model is developed to illustrate the dynamics of growth among the ‘North’, the ‘South’ and ‘OPEC’. One conclusion is that the Southern growth rate will be increased by faster growth of Northern capital, with a steady state response coefficient of unity. However, if the steady state is perturbed by increases in Northern productivity or the oil price, then the coefficient becomes less than one. In the short run, higher capital flows from North to South increase the former's growth rate but may have only marginal impact on growth in the South. Higher productivity in the South will slow its growth rate and reduce its terms of trade when the Engel elasticity of Northern demand for its exports is less than one. These and other results follow from surplus labor in the South and its dependent position in international trade, from which it will be difficult to escape.     

Closing large open economy models

A large class of international business cycle models admits multiple locally isolated deterministic steady states, if the elasticity of substitution between traded goods is sufficiently low. I explore the conditions under which such multiplicity occurs and characterize the dynamic properties in the neighborhood of each steady state. Models with standard incomplete markets, portfolio costs, a debt-elastic interest rate, or an overlapping generations framework allow for multiple steady states, if the model features multiple steady states under financial autarchy. If the excess demand for the foreign traded good is increasing in the good's own price in a given steady state, the equilibrium dynamics around this steady state are unbounded. Otherwise, the dynamics are bounded and unique. By contrast, with Uzawa-type preferences, the steady state is always unique and the associated equilibrium dynamics are always bounded and unique. The same results obtain under complete markets.     

Are Imports and Exports Cointegrated? An International Comparison

In this paper we use the Johansen and Juselius cointegration technique to examine the long‐run convergence between imports and exports for a number of industrialized countries. The results indicate that there exists a long‐run steady‐state relationship between imports and exports for most countries in the sample. The policy implications of our findings are that the countries are not in violation of their international budget constraints and, more importantly, there is no productivity gap between the domestic economy and the rest of the world, implying a lack of permanent technological shocks to the domestic economy.     

The macroeconomic role of currency reserve accumulation in emerging markets—The Asian experience

The impact of currency reserve accumulation is controversially discussed since reserve accumulation potentially destabilises the international financial system and causes crises due to higher systemic risk. The main aim of this paper is to put the macroeconomic role of currency reserve accumulation for four Asian economies under closer scrutiny. The key question is whether accumulating currency reserves is beneficial from a long‐run perspective. Based on a vector error correction approach, we start by analysing long‐run steady‐state relationships between currency reserves, exchange rates against the US dollar, real GDP and interest rates. Our findings show that cumulated currency reserve shocks significantly affect real GDP . A likely explanation for our finding is that accumulation of reserves has supported growth through providing liquidity and supporting the development of the financial sector for the economies under observation.     

Can monetary policy tame Harrodian instability?

The paper introduces monetary policy into the canonical Kaleckian growth model with a built‐in Harrodian instability. It abstains, however, from the simple and immediately stabilizing interest rate inverse IS curve. Instead, more indirect effects are examined, which realistically will take time to work out. In particular, (a) the trend rate of growth governing the investment decisions additionally responds to the difference between the profit rate and the real rate of interest; and (b) the real interest rate may enter dynamic adjustments of the price markup. The main finding is that the Harrodian forces could still be overcome and stability of the steady state position is re‐established provided that the profitability motive in (a) and the responsiveness in the Taylor policy rule are both sufficiently strong. By contrast, the indirect feedback effects produced by (b) broaden the scope for instability. In sum, monetary policy in this extended framework can favour stability but is not necessarily the stabilizing panacea that the New Consensus considers it to be.     

Demand-side stabilization policies: What is the evidence of their potential?

Using disaggregated data for the United States, this paper explores the effects of the variability of fiscal and monetary policy shocks. Higher variability of government spending shocks around a steady-state growth trend results in, on average, a decline in aggregate demand growth and inflation, with limited effects on output growth. On the other hand, higher variability of monetary shocks results in, on average, an increase in inflation and a decline in output growth. These results indicate the desirability of avoiding large fluctuations over time in either government spending or the money supply.     

GROWTH,UNEMPLOYMENT AND ENDOGENOUS TECHNICAL PROGRESS: A HICKSIAN RESOLUTION OF HARROD'S KNIFE‐EDGE

This paper presents a neo‐Kaleckian growth model with unemployment, endogenous technical progress, and a steady‐state requirement of balanced labor demand and supply growth. There are two key innovations: first, a Marx–Hicks unemployment rate–profit rate channel affecting labor‐saving technical progress; second, a Keynesian unemployment rate channel affecting saving and investment. Changes in the unemployment rate change the profit rate, rebalancing effective labor supply and employment growth. This provides a Hicksian resolution of Harrod's knife‐edge. The Keynesian unemployment rate channel strengthens the growth benefits of a lower unemployment rate, potentially obviating any growth–unemployment trade‐off.     

Non-homothetic preferences and growth

We observe that countries at low levels of income invest at lower rates than those at higher levels of income. This paper explains this fact as a consequence of Engel's law, i.e. that there is an inverse relation between expenditure and its proportion spent on food. It introduces non-homothetic preferences based on Engel’s law in a simple Solow model. These preferences imply rates of net investment that increase with the level of income as we approach the steady state. Increasing investment rates imply a positive correlation between growth rates and the level of income, at low levels of income, rather than an inverse relation, as the usual Solow model implies. The existence of a positive correlation between income growth rates and income levels, at low levels of income in the presence of this type of preference, has already been shown in a previous paper for a closed economy. The purpose of this paper is to show that this positive correlation persists when we introduce trade into the model.     

INTERNATIONAL RESERVE MANAGEMENT: A DRIFT‐SWITCHING REFLECTED JUMP‐DIFFUSION MODEL

We study the cost of shocks, that is, jump risk, with respect to reserve management when the reserve process is formulated as a drift‐switching jump diffusion with a reflecting barrier at 0. Inspired by the Brownian drift switching model, our model results in a more realistic dynamic behavior of international reserves than the buffer stock model. The new model can capture both the jump behavior in reserve dynamics and the leptokurtic feature of the increment distribution which has a higher peak and two asymmetric heavier tails than the normal distribution. Through the selection of an initial distribution that reflects certain steady state behaviors, the reserve process becomes a regenerative process. This selection enables us to derive a closed‐form expression for the total expected discounted cost of managing reserves, thus helping us to numerically find management strategies that minimize costs. The numerical results show that shocks at the reserve level have a significant effect on reserve management strategies and that model misspecification can result in nonnegligible additional costs.