Technological regimes and demand structure in the evolution of the pharmaceutical industry

This paper examines how the nature of the technological regime governing innovative activities and the structure of demand interact in determining market structure, with specific reference to the pharmaceutical industry. The key question concerns the observation that—despite high degrees of R&D and marketing-intensity—concentration has been consistently low during the whole evolution of the industry. Standard explanations of this phenomenon refer to the random nature of the innovative process, the patterns of imitation, and the fragmented nature of the market into multiple, independent submarkets. We delve deeper into this issue by using an improved version of our previous “history-friendly” model of the evolution of pharmaceuticals. Thus, we explore the way in which changes in the technological regime and/or in the structure of demand may generate or not substantially higher degrees of concentration. The main results are that, while technological regimes remain fundamental determinants of the patterns of innovation, the demand structure plays a crucial role in preventing the emergence of concentration through a partially endogenous process of discovery of new submarkets. However, it is not simply market fragmentation as such that produces this result, but rather the entity of the “prize” that innovators can gain relative to the overall size of the market. Further, the model shows that emerging industry leaders are innovative early entrants in large submarkets.     

A simultaneous equations study of research and development intensity

This paper presents a simultaneous equations model of profitability, concentration, advertising, and research and development outlays. We find that research and development intensity tends to increase in more concentrated industries, although this effect is negated in industries where technological opportunities are excellent. Also, high levels of research and development may reduce concentration while tending to add to industry profitability. These results suggest that the government should not be concerned with the possibility of an adverse impact of market concentration on research and development, although the evidence suggests that certain high technology industries may be at a small risk.     

技术多元化、行业集中度与企业绩效波动

技术多元化是企业提高核心竞争力的重要手段,在不同行业背景下,技术多元化战略对于企业绩效的稳定作用存在一定的差异.运用2009—2018年710家创业板公司IPC发明专利信息数据,采用固定面板模型,基于行业特征与行业集中度视角研究了技术多元化对于企业绩效波动的影响.研究发现:技术多元化对于企业绩效波动有明显平滑效果;在高科技行业中,技术多元化对企业绩效波动的平滑效应相对较强;行业集中度低的情况下,技术多元化对企业绩效波动的平滑效应相对较强,而在高行业集中度的情况下,平滑效应近乎无效.为企业的技术知识基础建设提供重要依据,同时为不同行业背景下的多元化产业技术生态建设提供科学的理论指导.     

DEA方法在我国工业部分产业技术创新效率评价中的应用

技术进步是产业发展的最主要因素,而产业的技术创新是推动技术进步主要动力,于是在促进产业发展的同时要不断地进行技术创新。然而在进行技术创新的同时我们必须考虑技术创新的效率问题,本文通过数据包络(DEA)的方法对我国29个工业产业的技术创新效率进行了评价,并且从DEA有效性,规模收益情况和投入产出冗余三个方面做了分析。结果表明,我国工业产业技术创新效率普遍较低,规模收益状况不理想,投入冗余较多。     

Understanding evolutionary processes in non-manufacturing industries: Empirical insights from the shakeout in pharmaceutical wholesaling

Although the empirical pattern of industry shakeout has been documented for many manufacturing industries, we know little about the processes by which market structure evolves in non-manufacturing service industries. This paper establishes detailed empirical observations about the consolidation of a single non-manufacturing industry, the wholesale distribution of pharmaceuticals. These observations are used to explore differences between manufacturing and wholesaling in both the patterns and explanations for consolidation and analyze the explanatory power of theories that link consolidation to technological change. The analysis demonstrates that theories developed to explain consolidation in new manufacturing industries have varying degrees of applicability to the consolidation of drug wholesaling. The observed patterns of exit, innovation, and growth suggest important modifications to evolutionary theories of market structure.     

中国特色自主创新道路的思考：创新资 源的配置、创新模式和创新定位的选择

本文从创新资源、创新模式、创新主体、创新方向等方面进行分析，提出了可以有效理解、引导、评估中国特色自主创新道路的一般性分析框架。研究结果表明，选择创新资源配置的重点，必须遵从“两力原则”，即“有能力、有潜力”；创新模式的确定主要根据技术梯度和技术地位特征进行分解；大学-产业-政府三螺旋相互作用成为创新系统运行的核心。本文还从比较优势、定位原则等方面对技术推动还是需求拉动、产品创新还是工艺创新、大企业创新还是小企业创新、颠覆性创新还是渐进性创新、传统产业创新还是新兴产业创新、劳动节约型技术进步还是资本节约型技术进步等六个问题进行了回答。     

中国技术创新影响因素的行业差异研究——以高技术产业为例

本文利用中国16个高技术行业的面板数据,对高技术行业的技术创新影响因素进行了实证分析,不仅研究了R＆D投入对高技术行业技术创新的影响,还考虑了行业融资结构、所有制结构、企业规模以及市场集中度等因素的影响作用。实证结果表明,R＆D投入是高技术产业技术创新的主要影响因素;技术创新的融资结构对高技术产业技术创新能力有显著影响,政府资金和金融机构资金在技术创新融资中的比例增加不利于提高高技术企业的技术创新能力;企业的产权制度改革对高技术行业技术创新能力有明显的促进作用;行业内的企业规模越大、市场集中度越高对高技术行业技术创新能力的正向影响越显著。     

Technological Change and the Scale of Production

Many manufacturing industries, including the computer industry, have seen large increases in productivity growth rates and have experienced a reduction in average establishment size. A vintage capital model is introduced which can account for this fact. It is shown that a rise in the rate of technological change decreases average plant size; that is, the level of innovation affects firm size. Smaller plants are not more innovative, as has been suggested, but industries with more innovation, as measured by productivity growth, have smaller plants. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D2, O3.     

Technological opportunity and the growth of knowledge: A Schumpeterian approach to measurement

A model of endogenous growth, based on Schumpeter's notion of trustified capitalism, is developed and applied to firm-level data for the period 1973–1991. The model relates the market value of a firm to its current profits and to its R&D expenditures. The relationship depends upon the expected rate of knowledge growth, the expected value of an innovation and the elasticity of the R&D production function. Over the sample period, investors expected knowledge to grow at an average rate of 5 percent, a measure which reflects both process innovations and new product discoveries. Elasticities of the R&D production functions are estimated for thirteen industry groups and interpreted as measures of technological opportunity. There is no evidence of secular decline in technological opportunity over the sample period, but there is some evidence of diminishing returns to R&D intensity. Variations in technological opportunity over time are not correlated across industries. In contrast, the expected rates of knowledge growth at the industry level are highly correlated with the aggregate expected rate.     

污染型行业区域布局的转移趋势——基于全要素生产率视角

在Battese and Coelli(1992)模型基础上,采用非中性技术进步超越随机前沿模型,对2003-2008年中国31个省、直辖市、自治区17类污染型行业的面板数据进行分析,测算各行业在各省份的全要素生产率增长率情况。分析结果发现,大部分污染型行业在中西部地区全要素生产率的平均增长率都比东部地区要高。从经济效率来看,大部分污染型行业势必在未来布局选择上会倾向于向中西部地区转移。而中西部地区的生态承载力和环境承载力都相对较弱,污染型行业向这些地区大规模转移必然会导致这些地区的生态环境进一步恶化。对此,本文从生态文明的角度对污染型行业的优化布局提出了具体的政策建议。     

技术创新、产业融合与制造业转型升级

在发达国家高端制造回流与中低收入国家争夺低端制造转移的“双向挤压”下,制造业转型升级已成为中国亟待解决的重大理论和实践问题。在产业融合度测算的基础上,运用多元线性回归模型探索技术创新对中国制造业转型升级的直接驱动作用,运用中介效应模型探索技术创新驱动中国制造业转型升级的基本路径。结果表明,技术创新对制造业转型升级具有显著直接驱动作用;产业融合是技术创新驱动制造业转型升级的基本路径。中国制造业与信息业融合度低且存在波动下降趋势,制约了制造业转型升级。因此,促进制造业转型升级,既要激励技术创新,又要促进产业融合,更要强化技术创新与产业融合的相互作用。     

Technology,productivity, and industry structure

This paper examines the controversy as to the particular firm size or industry structure that is most conducive to innovation. Four major conclusions emerge from the considerations advanced here. First, contrary to the focus of the controversy, the relevant issue is not one of the economic statics. Rather, it is one of technological dynamism. Second, variety is an essential ingredient of innovative activity, which can be sustained only through equivalent variety in firm size and industry structure. Thus, there is no one single optimum firm size or industry structure. Third, the origin of interindustry differences in innovation and productivity growth lies in certain processes of cumulative causation involving a multiplicity of variables rather than any one single factor at the exclusion of all others. In consequence, we find that productivity does not advance in a uniform manner across various industries. Rather, it is characterized by an inherently uneven pattern of growth. Fourth, it is pointless to strive for a balanced growth between various sectors of the economy. Rather, an effective policy is one of deliberately lopsided growth whereby fuller development of progressive industries makes it possible to generate the additional resources required for investment in the backward industries. Finally, while the policy to stimulate technical progress and productivity growth must be formulated in a broader socioeconomic context, its focus ought to be on the internal dynamics of technical change processes.     

技术创新与装备制造业的发展——以河北省为例

河北省是全国装备制造业的重要产业基地之一,河北省装备制造业是河北省经济中的重点产业,与其他产业关联度高,带动性强。但在世界经济危机的背景下,面临着发展中存在的问题,河北省装备制造业的发展面临着紧迫性。通过借鉴国内外以技术创新引领装备制造业发展的典型经验,指出以技术创新推动河北省装备制造业发展是解决问题的关键所在,并提出推动河北省装备制造业发展的对策,包括重点支持高科技产业的发展,加大对装备制造业技术创新的经费投入,鼓励企业自主研发,注重人才培养和引进,密切产学研合作,建立区域间创新资源共享的新模式等。     

行业视角下减排成本估算及减排路径研究

碳达峰碳中和是中国经济发展环境治理的战略目标,减排成本与减排路径是该战略实施中两大现实问题。基于行业视角,利用投入产出方法,对行业减排成本、技术减排效应及减排路径展开研究,基本结论如下：①行业减排成本差异大,整体减排成本逐年上升。在三个代表性年份行业最高与最低减排成本相差40-60倍,减排成本绝对差值在1500-3000$/t。在2000-2010年间, 32个行业减排成本均有不同程度的上升, 全社会整体减排成本上升了56.98%。②技术进步的减排贡献较大,部分行业技术减排有限。在产出固定假设下,2000-2010年技术进步实现累计减排57.09亿t,累计技术减排率达到47.88%；但在旅游、住宿餐饮等行业技术减排率为负,技术因素导致的排放不减反增。③行业减排路径应遵循从高碳到低碳的顺序。基于减排成本与技术减排两大因素的减排路径规划显示,优先和重点减排行业主要集中在能源生产供给、加工制造、交通运输、采矿及设备制造等高能耗高排放行业；可相对延后和非重点减排行业主要为食品烟草等传统加工制造业以及金融、房地产等现代服务业。     

Technological change and the vertical organization of industries

The vertical scope of a firm, that is, which components or segments of the production processes are kept in–house and which are outsourced, is variously considered as depending on cost and/or technological conditions. Most of the literature focuses on the incentives for an individual firm facing exogenous competition and technological opportunities. In this paper we consider the problem from the perspective of the whole industry: in what respect does firm organizational behavior depend on the industry technological evolution and aggregate structure, and how does innovation and organizational behavior affect the industry structure. We build an evolutionary simulation model of an industry where competitors decide the number of internally produced components. We relate the industry average value of market outsourcing to the technological conditions prevalent in the industry. The results from the model shed light on a number of (apparently) contradictory suggestions in the economic and management literature.     

R&D subsidies in a model of growth with dynamic market structure

This paper presents the effects of an R&D subsidy in a Schumpeterian general equilibrium model with rich industry dynamics. R&D subsidies raise the long-run growth rate, but they also raise the level of industry concentration. In the model firms compete for market share through process R&D endogenously determining the market structure within and across industries. Endogeneity of the market structure allows for analysis of changes in the moments of the firm size distribution in response to policy. R&D subsidies primarily benefit large incumbent firms who increase their innovation rates creating a greater technological barrier to entry. Concentration increases with fewer firms and a higher variance in the market shares. In general equilibrium, the greater distortions in the product market cause the wage rate to fall which leads to increased turnover rates. In addition, the analysis demonstrates that the model captures a large number of empirical regularities described in the industrial organization literature, but absent from most endogenous growth models. These features, such as entering firms are small relative to incumbents, the hazard rate of exit is negatively related to firm size, and large firms spend more on R&D than small firms play important roles in understanding the impact of R&D subsidies on the economy.     

关于发展不同要素密集型产业的理论争论及其启示

支持发展劳动密集型产业的经济学家们认为,发展中国家资本匮乏,而劳动力资源丰富,发展劳动密集型产业,符合比较优势原则,有利于解决就业问题;而反对者则指出了比较优势战略理论的三点不足,并认为,从长期看,资本密集型产业可以更多地促进就业。两方的争论,对我们的产业结构调整和技术进步政策有重要的启发。     

技术进步与中国工业结构升级

文章基于非均衡增长的视角系统研究了中国工业结构升级的动因问题。在厘清中国工业结构变化经验事实的基础上,通过建立两部门的中国工业结构变化的动态随机一般均衡模型进行数值模拟,据此拟合中国工业结构变化的经验事实,并对模型经济的机制进行分析,结合中国经济的实际运行情况,探讨中国工业结构升级的动因和机制。研究表明：(1)从供给侧角度考察,轻重工业技术进步率的相对变化是中国工业产出结构变化的动因;而重工业相对于轻工业有较高的技术进步率,是中国工业结构升级的动因。(2)重工业技术进步对轻工业产出具有溢出效应。(3)重工业技术进步率相对高于轻工业时,投资率呈上升趋势,轻工业产品消费份额逐步下降,同时重工业产品消费份额保持稳定和略有增长,从而使得重工业产出份额呈上升趋势。其政策含义为：政府在推动技术进步方面应将更多的政策支持、人力资源和物质资源等重点配置于重工业,尤其是配置于基础性或高科技行业,而非是轻工业,推动重工业相对于轻工业有较高的技术进步率,从而有力地推动工业结构和制造业的双重升级;建立统一的国内市场,对使用本国重工业产品进行投资生产的企业,给予税收抵免、退税补贴等政策予以鼓励支持。     

Agglomeration economies in manufacturing industries: the case of Spain

This study analyses the extent of geographical concentration of Spanish industry between 1993 and 1999, and studies the agglomeration economies that could underlie that concentration. The results confirm that there is major geographic concentration in a number of industries with widely varying characteristics, including high-tech businesses and those linked to the provision of natural resources as well as traditional industries. The analysis of the scope of spillovers behind this agglomeration supports the idea that transportation costs may induce plants in some industries to locate near their customers and suppliers. However, one cannot conclude that this is a common fact for all industries. This study also shows that the higher the technological level of an industry, the higher the agglomeration it experiences. This result implies the importance of the labour market, informational spillovers and producer services location for the agglomeration of these industries.     

对外直接投资逆向技术溢出的行业内与行业间路径检验——基于对空间计量方法的嫁接

创造性地对空间计量经济学中的空间相关性思想进行嫁接利用,在思路方法上进行开拓,构建反映同行业内企业间相互联系与各行业间相互关联的空间权重矩阵,建立空间杜宾模型,并以制造业为例,对ODI逆向技术溢出效应的行业内和行业间路径进行实证检验。对行业内路径的检验表明,企业全要素生产率受到同行业内其它企业ODI活动的影响,行业内企业通过ODI促进自身技术进步之后,又通过企业间各种竞争合作关系促进同行业其它企业生产率提高,行业内路径由此得以验证。对行业间路径的检验表明,各行业通过ODI促进本行业技术进步之后,又通过行业间前向与后向产业关联,对其它关联行业的技术进步和生产率提高起到促进作用,且产业完全关联下的促进作用大于直接关联,由此行业间路径得以验证。