The Impact of Sector-Specific and Economy-Wide Policy Reforms on the Agricultural Sector in Brazil: 1980–98

This article analyzes the impact of policy reforms and changing macroeconomic conditions on the Brazilian agricultural sector. It stresses four issues: events outside of agriculture were central to the performance of the sector and to the timing and sequence of policy reform; reform involved far more than trade liberalization; the impact of reform on input markets and productivity was key for understanding the period; and policy reform had a highly differentiated impact on the sector. As a result of the reforms, agriculture became the most dynamic sector of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s. Policies still in need of reform are identified. (JEL O13 , Q18 )     

高技术产业集聚对产业效率的影响

高技术产业集聚对产业效率具有一定的促进作用,但二者关系还受经济发展水平和对外开放程度的影响。基于1995—2016年我国内地多个省市高技术产业面板数据,构建交互项和面板门限回归模型,就经济发展和对外开放对高技术产业集聚与效率的影响进行实证检验。结果表明,高技术产业集聚与经济发展的交互项系数为负,与对外开的放交互项系数为正,对产业效率的影响存在显著的经济发展和对外开放门限效应。随着经济发展水平提升,高技术产业集聚对产业效率的正向影响会减弱,证明了威廉姆森假说在我国高技术产业中的存在性;随着对外开放程度提升,高技术产业集聚对产业效率的正向影响会增强,否定了开放性假说。     

China’s Experience with Indexed Government Bonds, 1988–1996: How Credible Was the People’s Republic’s Anti-Inflationary Policy?

The People's Republic of China introduced indexed government bonds in the face of the inflation panic of 1988–89 and reintroduced them when inflation surged upward again in 1993. Measures of inflation expectations—as derived from the trading prices of these indexed bonds—suggest that the government gained credibility from its ability to contain inflation in 1989. But the government's failure to quickly halt the 1993–95 inflation led, by late 1994, to soaring inflation expectations and, ultimately, a heavy financial penalty for the government as the 1992 and 1993 bond issues matured while inflation was still high.     

产业政策对企业跨界经营行为的影响

基于2006—2015年中国A股上市公司的数据,研究了产业政策对企业跨界经营行为的影响。结果表明:产业政策会引导企业通过跨界经营进入政策支持行业;通过有关联跨界进入政策支持行业的企业的经营绩效会显著提高,而无关联跨界反而会降低企业价值;在产业政策的引导作用下,企业为了政策寻租而采取的无关联跨界行为,既不利于自身的长远发展,又会降低产业政策的效果。     

中国工业企业的所有制结构对效率差异的影响——1995年全国工业企业普查数据的实证分析

本文以 1 995年全国工业普查的数据为基础 ,从全部 75万家企业中选择了2 0余个产业 ,共计大约 1 7万家具有竞争性特点的企业进行了效率测定和比较。分析方法主要采用了生产函数模型和OLS计量方法 ,分别对普查数据中提供的所有制变量和企业隶属等级制变量对于企业效率的影响进行了分析和比较。对于所有制变量比较的结果发现 ,私营个体企业的效率最高 ,三资企业其次 ,股份和集体企业再次 ,国有企业效率最低。同样 ,对于等级制变量的效率比较发现 ,由于较低隶属等级的非国有企业效率高于那些等级地位高的国有企业 ,结果使得后者的规模优势丧失。因而旧体制中的隶属等级地位对于企业的发展是消极的。     

Industrial reform in Jamaica in the 1980s: an export promotion strategy

Jamaica has shifted gradually from an import substitution strategy of industrialization in the 1960s and early 1970s to a much more export-orientated approach. Policy in the 1980s has been based around changes to the real exchange rate, foreign trade liberalization, fiscal incentives to new investment, particularly foreign investment, and selective support through various subsidies. Performance has been mixed, however, with only the garment sub-sector of manufacturing achieving significant export growth. Furthermore, the heavy involvement of transnational firms in the new industrial investment raises questions about the long-run viability of the form of export promotion currently being pursued     

The knowledge production of ‘R’ and ‘D’

Many studies investigate the relationship between R&D and patents applying knowledge production functions. Using aggregated R&D may underestimate the productivity of ‘R’, as mainly ‘R’ but not ‘D’ leads to patents. Disaggregating ‘R’ and ‘D’ shows a significant premium of ‘R’ towards patenting.     

The effect of reforms on employment flexibility in Chinese SOEs, 1980–94

This paper tries to document the increased flexibility in employment relations in Chinese SOEs until 1994, as well as the effects this had on productivity and on the allocation of workers. A number of measures were introduced to enhance such flexibility, such as autonomy in the decision to hire and fire workers, and a new contract status which could at least in theory be terminated. This was aimed at improving the motivation as well as the allocation of workers across firms. Both should have improved the productivity of SOEs. The evidence found, however, indicates that these measures had few effects. This conclusion is based first on turnover data where hardly any change is found. Estimates of productivity and allocative efficiency gains lead to the same conclusion. This confirms the view that the Chinese state sector reforms regarding employment decisions remained very limited in scope until 1994. JEL classification: P23, P31, J63.     

FDI对省际工业能源效率的影响

以2005-2007年各省区的工业能源效率为研究对象,探讨了外资企业进入对工业能源效率所产生的影响。进行检验后发现,由于普遍整体的技术水平要高于国内企业,外资进入总体上会提高省区的工业能源效率;而由于企业性质不同,即港澳台企业相对于其他外资企业来说规模偏小、环保意识较差、生产和环境技术较差等,导致港澳台外资对能源效率的影响要小于其他外资对能源效率的影响,并且这种影响具有一定的稳定性。     

Cost Behaviour of Chinese State-owned Manufacturing Enterprises in the 1980s

This paper aims to model the cost behaviour of Chinese state-owned enterprises in the 1980s. Given production autonomy and profit-related bonus incentives, state firms are expected to increase profits and therefore bonuses by changing their cost behaviours more rationally. However, since institutional constraints remain and distort the rational demand of the firm for input factors, the changes cannot go as far as expected by the standard neoclassical cost minimisation theory. Based on this, we derived a total cost function for Chinese state firms restricted by the government control over their total wage bills. We then test it using a panel data of 386 state manufacturing enterprises in the period 1983–87. It is found that the model predicted well. Despite the constraints, the reform did lead the firms to respond to both changes in factor prices in the directions expected by cost minimising behaviour and to bonus incentives to produce more efficiently.     

The Role of a Firm’s Net Cash Payouts in Leland’s (1994) Model

We study the effects of introducing payouts on corporate debt and optimal capital structure in a structural credit risk model à la Leland (1994) . We find that increasing the payout parameter not only affects the endogenous bankruptcy level, which is decreased, but modifies the magnitude of a change on the endogenous failure level as a consequence of an increase in risk‐free rate, corporate tax rate, riskiness of the firm and coupon payments. This simple analytical framework is able to capture realistic insights about optimal leverage, spreads and default probabilities more in line with historical norms (if compared to Leland’s results) and closer to predictions obtained through more sophisticated models.     

产业关联视角下的碳关税征收对我国产业经济的影响

最终需求的生产诱发系数和依存度系数揭示,我国高耗能产业部门生产对出口依赖程度较高;碳关税征收在减少高耗能产品出口的同时,由于其产业影响力较大,会对其它产业部门的生产产生较大的波及。高耗能产业部门的感应度系数表明,当各个部门的最终需求变化时,其生产将受到较大的影响。碳关税对高耗能产品的征收最终会通过产业间的关联波及各个产业部门,进而全面影响我国产业经济的发展。     

外资银行进入对中国银行业效率影响的实证研究

本文运用中国银行业1995-2004年横截面数据对外资银行进入程度、市场竞争结构、中资银行效率水平的变化关系进行经验分析.研究发现:外资银行进入程度与中资银行利息边际和利润水平显著正相关;同时,本国银行市场竞争程度与外资银行进入程度的交互项与中资银行的税前利润这一效率变量显著负相关.上述结果表明:一方面,外资银行进入的实际竞争压力程度有限,尚未打破中国银行业低效均衡的状态;另一方面,随着中国银行市场竞争条件的改善,将更有助于实现外部竞争压力对本国银行效率演变的促进作用.     

Coping with Technology Divergence Policies and Strategies for India’s Industrial Development

Recent studies on innovation have demonstrated the relationship between technology and growth. However, as most of them are centered on the experience of the highly industrialized nations, a different approach to technology policy must be taken. As late industrializers, developing countries lag in adopting foreign technologies. Institutional factors and economic policy also influence the diffusion process. With decentralized decision making, the coexistence of diverse technologies in a given industrial branch is inevitable. Consequently, social costs tend to be high because of duplication of efforts, reduced learning opportunities, and adoption of inefficient technologies. This article examines the coexistence of diverse technologies leading to technology fragmentation in India’s steel industry. Recent innovative behavior in the Japanese and Korean steel industry indicates that the effects of fragmentation can be contained through a policy of “system integration.” This is an institutional process by which industry-specific applications of scientific knowledge are fused with basic research itself. This demands a forward-looking policy that rejuvenates older industries, such as steel, in socially acceptable ways and organically creates new knowledge for national development and social welfare.     

中国节能政策对能源效率提高的影响——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

利用1996~2012年省际面板数据研究了我国节能政策对能源效率提高的影响。研究表明:"十一五"以来,我国所实施的节能政策对全国及各区域能源利用效率的提高有着积极作用;与东部地区相比,政府节能政策对中部和西部地区提高能效的影响效果更为显著。此外,技术进步是中部和西部省份实现节能降耗的有效手段,优化产业结构和产权结构更有利于全国以及东部地区提高能效。因此,未来还应继续加强政府相关政策对能效提高工作的支持力度,同时要根据不同地区的经济发展结构和技术水平特点实施差异化的节能政策。     

Evaluating Partial Reforms in the Chinese State Industrial Sector: a stochastic frontier cost function approach

China's phenomenal economic growth since 1979 is seen by many as a challenge to the belief that the clarification of property rights is a necessary step of successful transition from a planned economy to a market economy. Instead of mass and rapid privatization, reforms in the Chinese state industrial sector in the 1980s were attempted to reconstruct the incentive structure of enterprises by linking rewards to performance, expanding managerial freedom and exposing enterprises to market influences. This paper investigates the extent to which the partial reforms have transformed the behaviour and performance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Using a panel of observations on 769 SOEs from ten manufacturing industries during 1980 and 1989, a stochastic cost frontier function is estimated to measure the effect of various reform measures on both technical and allocative efficiency. We found that the average cost efficiency level increased by 1.18% per annum during the decade. The efficiency effects of the industrial reform programme are mixed. While performance-related bonuses and market competition appear to have had the intended impact, there is evidence that devolution of decision-making power to the firm level has led to deterioration in efficiency. Therefore, although the partial reforms have met with some success, the issue of an adequate structure of incentives for SOEs remains unresolved.     

FDI流入的产业结构对我国出口贸易结构的影响

本文研究了FDI流入的技术外溢、集聚效应和挤出效应对出口贸易结构的影响.运用实证分析方法,通过分析外商直接投资的产业结构对按初级产品、工业制成品和要素密集度分类的出口贸易结构的影响,研究外商直接投资对中国出口贸易结构调整的表象作用;通过分析外商直接投资的产业结构对按三次产业和按贸易方式分类的出口贸易结构的影响,研究外商直接投资对中国出口贸易结构的实质性影响.     

信托对产业发展支持的有效性研究

信托与产业发展之间存在一种良性互动关系,信托对产业发展的支持可以从它的投资领域、投资方式、资金投向、期限特征等中看出。信托的可持续发展与产业发展息息相关,信托是否有效支持产业发展需要有一个评价标准进行评判。依据金融与经济相互关系的原理以及金融效率评价标准的相关理论,创值率可以作为衡量信托对产业发展支持有效度的评价标准。但统计误差、各地区经济环境差异、信息不对称等因素有可能会影响评价结果的可信度。因此,必须高度重视信托资金的合理投向、高度关注信托项目统计信息的质量和信息传递渠道的建设。