浅析当前我国通货膨胀产生的原因及对策分析

根据国家统计局公布的2011年一季度CPI数据,前两个月皆为4.9%,三月份的CPI数据国内各银行的首席经济学家预测亦不低于4.8%,约为4.9%～5.2%,接近5%的峰值。较高的通货膨胀已对国内经济的发展和人民的生活水平产生较大影响,缓解通货膨胀已成为我国经济面临的最重要的问题。     

Output decline and the demise of the CMEA and the USSR: The case of Hungary

The direct effect of market losses in CMEA on Hungarian output was 4%, out of the 18% decline registered in gross output in 1988–1992. Total (direct and indirect) effects amounted to 8%. In the same period Hungary's export expansion in western markets led to direct and total effects equivalent to 2.9% and 5.6% of the 1988 output, respectively. The share of reorientation within this switch from east to west was not negligible, it amounted to 19% of respective trade volumes. The 1991 price explosion of imported inputs inhibited the activity of Hungarian firms only moderately, due to earlier realistic domestic prices. In 1991 Hungary suffered a 26% terms of trade loss, and could have experienced an income terms of trade loss of USD 1400 to 1600 million, had the trade volume of 1990 been repeated. Since adjustments in 1991, much smaller income losses accrued. Due to earlier special tax arrangements, much of the burden of terms of trade losses had to be born by the budget.     

How the iPhone Widens the U.S. Trade Deficit with China: The Case of the iPhone X

Through an examination of the case of the iPhone X, this paper demonstrates that Chinese companies involved in the production of the iPhone X have moved up along the global value chain. According to the bill of materials, those companies contributed 25.4% of the value added of the iPhone X. About 45% of the value added of the iPhone X originated in Japan, South Korea, and other economies. The iPhone trade remains a significant element of the statistical distortion of the China–US bilateral trade imbalance. In terms of gross value, the import of one iPhone X results in a USD332.75 trade deficit for the US; measured in terms of the value added, however the deficit is a mere USD104. The depreciation of the Chinese yuan (CNY) has very limited power to counterbalance the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration because the foreign value added embedded in Chinese exports is 33.9% on average. Simulation results show that to counterbalance a 25% tariff, the CNY would have to depreciate by 43.3% against the US dollar on average, and to fully compensate for a 25% tariff burden on the iPhone X, a 400% depreciation of the CNY would be necessary. Hedging the risk of the punitive U.S. tariffs by depreciating the CNY is impossible.     

负债制度阈值下债务结构对公司成长性的影响

在证监会IPO申请审核标准的约束下,中国存在70%和20%负债制度阈值。以2001-201 0年中国A股9860家上市公司为样本,研究发现,当负债小于20%时,长期债务或银行借款对公司增长起限制作用,而且银行借款对公司价值造成负面影响;当负债超过70%时,由于债权人的预算软约束,长期债务不减反增,助长了公司非理性高速增长,以及银行放任公司高风险高增长,造成公司价值毁损;当负债在20%与70%之间时,预算软约束状况得到改善,但负债的正面治理效应仍不显著。     

Modelling the hidden economy and the tax-gap in New Zealand

This paper develops and estimates a structural, latent variable, model for the hidden economy in New Zealand, and a separate currency-demand model. The estimated latent variable model is used to generate an historical time-series index of hidden economic activity, which is calibrated via the information from the currency-demand model. Special attention is paid to data non-stationarity, and to diagnostic testing. Over the period 1968 to 1994, the size of the hidden economy is found to vary between 6.8% and 11.3% of measured GDP. This, in turn, implies that the total tax-gap is of the order of 6.4% to 10.2% of total tax liability in that country. Of course, not all of this foregone revenue would be recoverable, as not all of the activity in the underground economy is responsive to changes in taxation or other policies. First version received: August 1997/Final version received: March 1999     

The Prince and the Pauper? CEO Pay in the United States and United Kingdom

We document differences in CEO pay and incentives in the United States and the United Kingdom for 1997. After controlling for size, sector and other firm and executive characteristics, CEOs in the US earn 45% higher cash compensation and 190% higher total compensation. The calculated effective ownership percentage in the US implies that the median CEO receives 1.48% of any increase in shareholder wealth compared to 0.25% in the UK. The differences, can be largely attributed to greater share option awards in the US arising from institutional and cultural differences between the two countries.     

Macroeconomic Management and the Transition to the Market in Vietnam

Vietnam′s macroeconomic performance during the transition to a market economy has been very strong, better than those of most economies in Eastern Europe and of the former Soviet Union. Vietnam grew at an average annual rate of 7% during 1989-1992; inflation declined from over 400% in 1988 to 17% in 1992; and exports increased at more than 30% per year during this period. The macroeconomic success can be attributed to the combination of good endowments and good policy. Vietnam′s output is concentrated in agriculture, services, and light industries, all sectors that responded quickly to price liberalization, strengthened property rights, and real exchange-rate devaluation. J. Comp. Econom., June 1994, 18(3), pp. 357-375. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433.     

Estimated general equilibrium models for the evaluation of monetary policy in the US and Europe

In this paper we derive a general equilibrium model based on optimising behaviour, which also implies a data consistent framework for monetary policy analysis. Specifically, our model accounts for nominal inertia in both price and wage setting as well for habits in consumption. Using US and European data from 1970 to 1998 our parameter estimates reveal that (i) price contracts last for 8 months and 13 months in the US and Euro-area, respectively; (ii) wage contracts have a length of 7 months and 1.75 years in the US and Europe, respectively; (iii) the extent of backward-looking behaviour in price setting is statistically significant in both economies with 41% of price contracts in the US and 28% in the Euro-area set according to a simple rule-of-thumb; (iv) backward-looking wage setting is only present in Europe with 17% of contracts set in a backward-looking manner; and (v) similar habits effects are present in both European and US consumption. Finally, we simulate the effects of monetary policy by considering the impact of a 1 point increase in nominal interest rates for one quarter. Our parameter estimates imply that there is a relatively muted inflationary response to interest rate increases in Europe (price inflation falls by -0.08% in Europe and 0.11% in the US) and there is a correspondingly large output response (-0.2% in the US and -0.6% in Europe).     

Labour market discrimination and the macroeconomy

We measure the discriminatory ethnic and gender wage gaps in Georgia. Gender wage discrimination is larger than the ethnic wage discrimination. We use the estimated gaps in a general‐to‐specific vector autoregression framework to test for Granger causality between discrimination and growth, and estimate the long‐run effects of each variable on the other. Granger causality is found to be bidirectional, but it is only the net long‐run effect of discrimination on growth that is a large and highly significant negative effect. In the long‐run, a 10% increase in ethnic (gender) discrimination reduces economic growth by 3%–4% (8%–10%). Additionally, ethnic and gender wage differentials are found to be counter‐cyclical.     

Trade liberalization and the inter-industry wage premia: the missingf role of productivity

The literature concerning the effect of tariffs on the inter-industry wage premium has not addressed the role of total factor productivity (TFP) in determining both the wage premium and tariffs. This omission not only overlooks an important determinant of wage premium but also invalidates the use of the pre-reform tariff level as an instrument for the change in tariffs. Based on an analysis of Colombian data, I find that including TFP in the estimated model of the effects of tariffs on the wage premium leads to a 41% decrease in the effect of tariffs on the inter-industry wage premium relative to the model that omits TFP. More specifically, a 10 percentage point decrease in tariffs reduces the wage premium by 1.01%, whereas a 10% increase in TFP raise wage premium by 1.6%. This finding suggests the importance of using policies that boost productivity to offset the effect of tariffs on the wage premium.     

海南省三亚市农地流转量预测分析

本文通过设定三亚市不同目标下的假设条件,对农户农地流转量进行了预测。根据推算,在最低生活保障阶段的耕地流转比例为29.85%,在农村社会保障体系比较健全阶段的耕地流转比例为66.66%,在农村社会保障体系和劳动力市场完善阶段的耕地流转比例为82.47%,说明如果做好相关保障措施,土地流转供需都会有较大的突破。     

腹腔镜在不孕症诊治中的应用

目的探讨腹腔镜在诊治不孕症中的价值。方法对68例考虑有原发性或继发性因素所致的不孕症患者,采用腹腔镜给予诊断及治疗。结果 68例不孕症患者中慢性盆腔炎占58.82%,子宫内膜异位症占14.71%,多囊卵巢综合征占8.82%,正常盆腔占7.35%,子宫输卵管先天发育异常占5.88%,盆腔结核占4.41%。结论腹腔镜手术诊治不孕症损伤小、恢复快、诊断明确、效果好,具有临床应用价值。     

Understanding the deviation of Australian policy rate from the Taylor rule

This investigation aims to explain and quantify the deviations of the Australian policy rate (set by Reserve Bank of Australia) from the Taylor Rule. A three-step econometric procedure designed to reflect the data-rich environment in which central banks operate is proposed using information for 229 macroeconomic series. This procedure can be applied to data for any economy with inflation targeting monetary rule. Our application with Australian data shows that approximately 65% of Australia’s policy rate deviation from the Taylor Rule can be explained systematically, with international factors and a domestic factor accounting for 41.9% and 22.5%, respectively, of the total variation in deviation from the rule.     

装备制造业对沈阳市GDP及税收增长拉动作用实证分析——基于投入产出分析方法

东北老工业基地振兴战略实施以来,沈阳市装备制造业发展水平和质量不断提高,对地方经济的拉动作用和税收贡献度显著增强。2008年,沈阳市装备制造业实现增加值804.1亿元,增长21.9%,占全市GDP的20.8%,对全市GDP增长的直接拉动作用为6.0%,拉动幅度为23.4%。利用2007年沈阳市投入产出表①,计算得2007年装备制造业对沈阳GDP的全部拉动作用达32.5%,较2002年提高了18.4个百分点。分子行业看,装备制造业七个子行业中通用设备制造业前后产业关联度最高,影响力系数和感应度系数分别达到7.8和4.4;电气机械器材制造业和通用设备制造业税收收入同比增加最多,占全部制造业税收收入增量的90.5%;仪器仪表及文化办公用品制造业税收弹性系数最高,达26.6。     

Efficiency and productivity of the food and beverage listed firms in the pre-recession and recessionary periods in Greece

This study uses data envelopment analysis to examine the liquidity and sales efficiency of the Food and Beverage listed firms in Athens Exchange in the period 2006–2012. The liquidity efficiency of the firms is higher than the sales efficiency but the results indicate that there are not statistical significant differences in the rankings estimated by the two models in each period. The Malmquist Productivity Index reveals that over the period of the study, firms have experienced an annual average increase in productivity of 0.5% (a slight progress). On examining the components of this productivity change, it becomes evident that firms have experienced an annual average of 2% increase in technology combined with a decrease in technical efficiency of –1.5%. The results indicate that 52.4% of the firms experienced productivity gains in the examined period, and this was mainly the result of technological gain rather than efficiency improvement. More than 90% of the firms in the sample shift the efficiency frontier and only 33.3% of the firms are catching up, improving their productivity by reducing inefficiency. Moreover, the empirical study reveals that the overall technical inefficiencies of the firms are primarily caused by pure technical inefficiencies rather than scale inefficiencies.     

Living arrangements of the elderly in China: evidence from the CHARLS national baseline

Declining fertility in China has raised concerns about elderly support, especially when public support is inadequate. Using rich information from the nationally representative China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) baseline survey, we describe the patterns of current living arrangements of the Chinese elderly and investigate their determinants and correlation with intergenerational transfers. We find that roughly 41% of Chinese aged 60 and over live with an adult child; living with a male adult child being strongly preferred. However another 34% have an adult child living in the same immediate neighborhood and 14% in the same county; only 5% have an adult child with none of them living in the same county. At the same time, a large fraction of the elderly, 45% in our sample, live alone or with only a spouse. In general, women, those from western provinces, and those from rural areas are more likely to live with or close to their adult children than their corresponding counterparts, but different types of intergenerational transfers play a supplementary role in the unequal distribution of living arrangements. Among non-co-resident children, those living close by visit their parents more frequently and have more communications by other means. In contrast, children who live farther away are more likely to send financial and in-kind transfers and send larger amounts.     

中国劳动报酬份额的演变趋势及其原因——基于最终需求和技术效率的视角

理解现阶段我国经济系统中劳动报酬的形成机理和产生效率,对于中国顺利实现产业结构转型,避免落入"中等收入陷阱",具有极其重要的意义。本文利用非竞争型投入产出模型,重点从需求结构和技术效率两个视角深入分析了开放背景下1987—2007年中国劳动报酬份额的演变趋势及其背后动因。研究发现,最终需求变动和技术效率变化对我国1987—2007年劳动报酬份额的演变具有非常显著的影响,最终需求结构、以需求衡量的产业结构、最终需求进口替代、劳动回报率、进口中间投入和投入产出效率对1987—2007年劳动报酬份额下降的贡献率分别为11%、14%、2%、38%、2%和33%。进一步研究发现,1997年之后,国内消费、投资和出口对我国劳动报酬的拉动系数呈大幅下降趋势,且拉动重心逐渐由国内居民消费转向投资和出口,这在很大程度上导致了1997年之后劳动报酬份额的显著下降。此外,包括劳动回报率、进口中间投入和投入产出效率在内的技术效率变化也是引起劳动报酬份额下降的重要原因。     

浅谈绍兴市调整产业结构和提高出口竞争力对策

绍兴市的纺织原料及纺织制品出口是其出口的传统行业,占绍兴市总出口比重从2003年以来一直处于60%～70%之间,是绍兴市出口的重中之重,保持了比较快的发展速度,但增长方式的落后,严重影响了其发展速度的进一步提高,增长方式亟待转变。高附加值、高科技含量行业的出口发展,促进了绍兴市的出口发展,也为今后更好地进行绍兴市出口能力提升提供了资源和保证。但是,由于绍兴市的经济结构和出口产品存在着诸多制约因素和问题,它还不能适应地区与国家经济发展的需要,所以,在对近些年来绍兴市经济结构和产品出口现状和问题的分析基础上,对绍兴市如何进行产业调整和提高出口产品竞争力提出了相应措施。     

Unsafe Sex in the City: Risk Pricing in the London Area

This paper studies the incidence, determinants, and pricing of unprotected oral sex in the London sex services market. The analysis is based upon matched sex worker–client panel data, which were collected from ‘field reports’ on PunterNet.com website over the 1999–2009 time period. We find a steady increase in the incidence of unprotected oral sex during this period, rising from <20% to over 50% of all transactions. We show that the average premium for unprotected oral sex amounts to about 10–14% of the transaction price, and that this premium is higher if a sex worker has agency affiliation. Agency affiliated sex workers are also less likely to engage in unprotected oral sex compared to independent sex workers.     

Economic modeling for the US of the cost-efficiency and associated expanded treatment access of conversion to biosimilar pegfilgrastim-bmez from reference pegfilgrastim

Abstract

Aims: For this economic analysis, we aimed to model: (1) the cost-efficiency of prophylaxis with biosimilar pegfilgrastim-bmez for chemotherapy-induced (febrile) neutropenia (CIN/FN) compared to reference pegfilgrastim, and (2) the expanded access to CIN/FN prophylaxis and anti-neoplastic treatment that could be achieved with biosimilar cost-savings on a budget-neutral basis.

Methods: In a hypothetical panel of 20,000 cancer patients receiving CIN/FN prophylaxis and using the average sales price (ASP) for the second quarter of 2019 for reference pegfilgrastim, we: conducted an ex ante simulation from the payer perspective of the cost-savings of 10–100% conversion from reference to biosimilar pegfilgrastim-bmez using drug price discounting ranging from 10–35%; estimated the budget-neutral expanded access to biosimilar pegfilgrastim-bmez enabled by these cost-savings; and estimated the budget-neutral expanded access to anti-neoplastic treatment with pembrolizumab. The simulations were replicated using fourth quarter 2019 wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) for reference pegfilgrastim and biosimilar pegfilgrastim-bmez in a post facto analysis.

Results: In ASP simulations, cost-savings of using pegfilgrastim-bmez over reference pegfilgrastim in a 20,000 patient panel range from $1.3?M (at 15% price discount) to $3?M (35%) at 10% conversion rate and from $6.4?M to $14.9?M, respectively, at 50% conversion. These savings could provide prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim-bmez to an additional 352 (15% discount) to 1,076 patients (35%) at 10% conversion or 1,764–5,384, respectively, at 50% conversion. Alternatively, savings could be reallocated for anti-neoplastic treatment with pembrolizumab to 3 (15% discount) to 9 (35%) patients at 10% conversion or 19–45, respectively, at 50% conversion. When utilizing WAC, cost-savings range from $4.6?M (10% conversion) to $23.1?M (50%) which could provide pegfilgrastim-bmez to an additional 1,174 (10% conversion) to 5,873 patients (50%).

Conclusions: Prophylaxis with biosimilar pegfilgrastim-bmez increases the value of cancer care by generating significant cost-savings that could be reallocated to provide expanded access to CIN/FN prevention and anti-neoplastic therapy on a budget-neutral basis.