The costs of hiring skilled workers

This paper analyzes the structure of hiring costs for skilled workers. We use novel Swiss administrative firm-level survey data that provide direct and detailed measures of hiring costs, including recruitment and adaptation. Results show that average hiring costs range, depending on firm size, from 10 to 17 weeks of wage payments. The structure of hiring costs is convex. Marginal hiring costs increase with the number of hires and reach up to 24 weeks of wage payments. We find no evidence for a fixed cost component. Hiring costs also increase with the hiring rate (the ratio of hires and skilled workers), confirming convexity. Hiring costs generally increase with skill requirements for job applicants, and depend on macroeconomic conditions: a 1% point increase in the unemployment rate reduces average hiring costs by more than 5%.     

Job search and unemployment insurance: New evidence from time use data

This paper provides new evidence on job search intensity of the unemployed in the U.S., modeling job search intensity as time allocated to job search activities. The major findings are: 1) the average U.S. unemployed worker devotes about 41 min to job search on weekdays, which is substantially more than their European counterparts; 2) workers who expect to be recalled by their previous employer search substantially less than the average unemployed worker; 3) across the 50 states and D.C., job search is inversely related to the generosity of unemployment benefits, with an elasticity between ?1.6 and ?2.2; 4) job search intensity for those eligible for Unemployment Insurance (UI) increases prior to benefit exhaustion; and 5) time devoted to job search is fairly constant regardless of unemployment duration for those who are ineligible for UI.     

Wind tunnel simulation and evaluation of soil conservation function of alpine grassland in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Aiming at studying soil conservation function of alpine grassland in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, this paper simulated soil erosion changes under different degrees of human disturbance in a wind tunnel laboratory. Three types of grasslands were selected, which include alpine meadow (QH-1), alpine steppe meadow (QH-2) and alpine steppe (QH-3), and the soil erosion rate was taken as the index to measure soil conservation function. The experimental results show that the soil erosion rates of three grassland samples increase with wind velocity under different treatments but the increment of erosion rate varied greatly. Under original status, soil erosion rates are in turn QH-1 < QH-2 < QH-3, which indicates that the soil conservation services are QH-1 > QH-2 > QH-3. When the aboveground vegetation was cut, the soil erosion rate change of QH-1 is the same as that of QH-3 and compared with the original status both of them changed a little. And when the root system was destroyed the erosion rates range in turn as QH-1 < QH-2 < QH-3. So the data suggest that soil conservation service for the three types of grasslands should be QH-1 > QH-2 > QH-3. The economic values of soil conservation were estimated, which include the values of organic carbon fixation, nutrient retention and reducing soil disuse.     

An application of Lotka–Volterra model to Taiwan's transition from 200 mm to 300 mm silicon wafers

In this paper, we explore the innovation growth of 200 mm and 300 mm silicon wafers from Taiwan. Using the historic data, we simulate the growth of the area of 200 mm and 300 mm silicon wafers manufactured in Taiwan by the competitive Lotka–Volterra model. The parameters in the Lotka–Volterra model estimated with the realistic data are obtained numerically. The dynamic growth of competitive relationship between 200 mm silicon wafers and 300 mm silicon wafers is then analyzed. To prove the performance of the model, we further compare the famous Bass model and the Lotka–Volterra model. We also perform the equilibrium analysis to determine the long-term stability state in the simulation trajectory. Our research exhibits that 200 mm silicon wafers and 300 mm silicon wafers show a prey–predator relationship under the assumption of natural competition in the global semiconductor market. From a managerial perspective, the coefficients in the Lotka–Volterra model of exponential growth, self-interaction and cross-interaction represent the strength of product attractiveness, niche capacity and interaction for two competition products. We also find that there exists a stable equilibrium state for 200 mm silicon wafers and 300 mm silicon wafers. The prey 200 mm generation does not disappear completely; it finally settles to a constant market alongside the predator 300 mm generation.     

Travel patterns and the potential use of electric cars – Results from a direct survey in six European countries

A significant penetration of electrical drive vehicles (EDVs) in the fleet is possible only if their use is compatible with mobility patterns of individuals. Building on the analysis of car mobility patterns by means of web-based car trips diaries filled in by a sample of individuals in six European countries, this paper provides insights on how EDVs could fit mobility habits. Critical aspects related to driving behaviour, which should be considered to allow the penetration of electric cars in the market, are identified. Among others results, we show that average daily driven distance in 6 countries ranges from an average of 40 km (UK) to an average of 80 km (Poland) and the parking time after the last trip of a day amounts to more than 16 h per day. These findings show that the current drive and parking behaviours are in line with the range limitation of current EDVs and the potential need for a full slow recharge of an average EDV battery. Our results are a starting point for the estimation on energy demand profiles to assess how electrical energy supply can meet demand under the assumptions of a wide market share of EDVs.     

Property rights,mobile capital,and comparative advantage

Recent papers show that imperfect property rights to a natural resource – a sector-specific factor–can be a source of comparative advantage. In these models, weaker property rights attract labor–the only mobile factor – to the resource sector, increasing the country's comparative advantage for that sector. If capital in addition to labor is mobile, and if the benefits of capital are non-excludable or if the degree of property rights is endogenous, a deterioration of property rights has ambiguous effects on comparative advantage and on the equilibrium wage/rental ratio.     

Tiebout equilibria in local public good economies with spillovers

This paper analyzes the effects of spillovers on the equilibrium population distribution across jurisdictions in a local public good economy with free mobility. Spillovers are parametrized by a matrix [α_ij] where α_ij ∈ [0, 1]. When spillovers are symmetric and close to 0 or 1 (pure local public goods and pure public goods), all equilibrium jurisdiction structures are symmetric. However, any population distribution can be sustained in equilibrium for some value of the spillover parameter α. In the class of utility functions with additive externalities, we identify the unique family of utility functions for which equilibria are symmetric except for an isolated value of α. This is a class of utility functions which are linear in the public good and a power function of the private good, u(c, γ) = − A(1 − c)^β + γ. With this specification of utility, we show that an increase in α results in a more fragmented equilibrium population distribution, and that when spillovers are asymmetric and large, a jurisdiction which is more centrally located (i.e. benefits more from the public goods provided in other jurisdictions) has a larger population in equilibrium.     

Functional sensitivity of testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis

Conventional tests for the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis mostly apply a quadratic equation in modeling the non-linear relationship between environmental indices (such as air pollutants) and welfare measures (such as income per capita). If their inverted-U shaped pattern is empirically accepted with two significant regressors, the income per capita and its square transformation, the EKC hypothesis is supported. Using an OECD sample, this paper shows that the validity of testing the EKC hypothesis is sensitive to how we transform income non-linearly in sulfur and carbon EKC regressions. This paper carries out experiments on different powers of γ for transforming income non-linearly and concludes that only when 0 < γ < 1 and 1 < γ < 2 will the EKC regression demonstrate a testable non-linear cointegration relationship between the two air pollutants and income per capita. In the generalized EKC regressions estimated in this paper, although we find sulfur and carbon EKC patterns in the OECD sample, none of the EKC regressions using different γ is a cointegrating equation. This finding implies an inside critique to the EKC literature that failure of cointegration of the conventional EKC regression is not because of using the quadratic functional form, but because of the fundamentally spurious relationship between the trends of pollutants and income levels.     

Do production managers predict turning points? A directional analysis

This study evaluates the directional accuracy of production managers' forecasts by using a new market-timing test. By extending the directional analysis to the 4 × 4 case, this study investigates whether Japanese production managers' forecasts correctly predict turning points in production across different industries. This fills a gap in the literature that focused on predicting increase/decrease or acceleration/deceleration using directional analysis of the 2 × 2 case. It also illustrates its merit over the 2 × 2 case. This study shows that majority of the forecasts are not useful in predicting turning points in production; however, they are useful in predicting increase/decrease in production. Our findings suggest that the production managers' forecasts serve as early qualitative information of expansion and contraction on the Japanese economy and their accuracy does not differ by phases of business cycles.     

Heterogeneous treatment and self-selection in a wage subsidy experiment

The Self-Sufficiency Project (SSP) is a research and demonstration project that offered a generous time-limited income supplement to randomly selected welfare applicants under two conditions. The first, the eligibility condition, required that they remain on welfare for at least 12 months. The second, the qualification condition, required that they find a full-time job within 12 months after establishing eligibility. In this paper we focus on a neglected and important feature of the program, namely that the financial reward for becoming qualified is inversely related to the expected wage rate. Under very simple assumptions we show that those who have a low expected wage rate have a clear incentive to establish eligibility.Empirical non-parametric evidence strongly suggests that individuals self-select into eligibility. We jointly estimate a participation equation and a wage equation that are correlated through individual random effects. Our results show that the omission of self-selectivity into qualification translates into slightly underestimated treatment effects.     

Functional sensitivity of testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis

Conventional tests for the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis mostly apply a quadratic equation in modeling the non-linear relationship between environmental indices (such as air pollutants) and welfare measures (such as income per capita). If their inverted-U shaped pattern is empirically accepted with two significant regressors, the income per capita and its square transformation, the EKC hypothesis is supported. Using an OECD sample, this paper shows that the validity of testing the EKC hypothesis is sensitive to how we transform income non-linearly in sulfur and carbon EKC regressions. This paper carries out experiments on different powers of γ for transforming income non-linearly and concludes that only when 0 < γ < 1 and 1 < γ < 2 will the EKC regression demonstrate a testable non-linear cointegration relationship between the two air pollutants and income per capita. In the generalized EKC regressions estimated in this paper, although we find sulfur and carbon EKC patterns in the OECD sample, none of the EKC regressions using different γ is a cointegrating equation. This finding implies an inside critique to the EKC literature that failure of cointegration of the conventional EKC regression is not because of using the quadratic functional form, but because of the fundamentally spurious relationship between the trends of pollutants and income levels.     

Do bubbles have an explosive signature in markov switching models?

We investigate nine data series previously identified as containing bubbles using Bayesian Markov switching models.  Nearly all series appear to display strong regime switching that could possibly be induced by ‘bubble’ processes, but in each case the type of model that best describes each price differs substantively.  We pay particular attention to whether these series contain transient explosive roots, a feature which has been suggested to exist in several bubble formulations.  Bayesian model averaging is employed which allows us to average across a range of submodels, so that our empirical findings are not based on only one well performing model.  We show that explosive regimes may exist in many submodels, but only when the flexibility of the model is limited in other important respects.  In particular, when Markov switching models allow for switching levels of error variance, explosive root regimes occur in only a minority of the series.     

Long-term global water projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment modeling framework

In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change — the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands – both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use – are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3710 km³ year^− 1 in 2005 to 6195–8690 km³ year^− 1 in 2050, and to 4869–12,693 km³ year^− 1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in meeting future water demands, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also highlight an important role for development and deployment of water conservation technologies and practices.     

Improving estimation of the fractionally differencing parameter in the SARFIMA model using tapered periodogram

This paper presents a new method to estimate the fractional differencing parameters in the SARFIMA model. A technique of split cosine bell tapering is suggested to improve the EGPH method. The simulation study shows that the optimal split proportion and bandwidth for the EGPH with split cosine bell tapering method respectively are p = 0.1 and b = 0.9. The new method with the optimal parameters outperforms the EGPH and EGPH with cosine bell tapering. We further applied the EGPH method to estimate intraday volume series and high-frequency absolute return data. The results show that the seasonal fractionally differencing parameters are all estimated to be large, while the nonseasonal fractionally differencing parameters are all very small. This indicates that their long memory property may be mainly caused by the structure of long-range dependence at the seasonal lags instead of dependence at the nonseasonal lags.     

Water flows,energy demand,and market analysis of the informal water sector in Kisumu,Kenya

In rapidly growing urban areas of developing countries, infrastructure has not been able to cope with population growth. Informal water businesses fulfill unmet water supply needs, yet little is understood about this sector. This paper presents data gathered from quantitative interviews with informal water business operators (n = 260) in Kisumu, Kenya, collected during the dry season. Sales volume, location, resource use, and cost were analyzed by using material flow accounting and spatial analysis tools. Estimates show that over 76% of the city's water is consumed by less than 10% of the population who have water piped into their dwellings. The remainder of the population relies on a combination of water sources, including water purchased directly from kiosks (1.5 million m³ per day) and delivered by hand-drawn water-carts (0.75 million m³ per day). Energy audits were performed to compare energy use among various water sources in the city. Water delivery by truck is the highest per cubic meter energy demand (35 MJ/m³), while the city's tap water has the highest energy use overall (21,000 MJ/day). We group kiosks by neighborhood and compare sales volume and cost with neighborhood-level population data. Contrary to popular belief, we do not find evidence of price gouging; the lowest prices are charged in the highest-demand low-income area. We also see that the informal sector is sensitive to demand, as the number of private boreholes that serve as community water collection points are much larger where demand is greatest.     

Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?

Giving up an independent monetary policy and a flexible exchange rate are the key aspects of joining a monetary union. In this paper we analyse how joining the euro area would have affected the Polish business cycle during the recent financial crisis. To this end we construct a small open economy DSGE model and estimate it for Poland and the euro area. Then we run a counterfactual simulation, assuming Poland's euro area accession in 1q2007. The results are striking — volatilities of GDP and inflation increase substantially. In particular, had Poland adopted the euro, GDP growth would have oscillated between − 6% and + 9% (− 9% to + 11% under more extreme assumptions) instead of between 1% and 7%. We conclude that during the analysed period independent monetary policy and, in particular, the flexible exchange rate played an important stabilizing role for the Polish economy.     

REDD+and community-controlled forests in low-income countries: Any hope for a linkage?

Deforestation and forest degradation are estimated to account for between 12% and 20% of annual greenhouse gas emissions and in the 1990s (largely in the developing world) released about 5.8 Gt per year, which was bigger than all forms of transport combined. The idea behind REDD + is that payments for sequestering carbon can tip the economic balance away from loss of forests and in the process yield climate benefits. Recent analysis has suggested that developing country carbon sequestration can effectively compete with other climate investments as part of a cost effective climate policy.This paper focuses on opportunities and complications associated with bringing community-controlled forests into REDD +. About 25% of developing country forests are community controlled and therefore it is difficult to envision a successful REDD + without coming to terms with community controlled forests. It is widely agreed that REDD + offers opportunities to bring value to developing country forests, but there are also concerns driven by worries related to insecure and poorly defined community forest tenure, informed by often long histories of government unwillingness to meaningfully devolve to communities. Further, communities are complicated systems and it is therefore also of concern that REDD + could destabilize existing well-functioning community forestry systems.     

Privatizing public services and strategic behavior: The impact of incentives to reduce workers' compensation claim duration

During the 1990s, the state of Ohio contracted out Workers' Compensation (WC) case management, incorporating a large bonus payment intended to reward reduced claim duration. The bonus is essentially a decreasing function of average days away from work, excluding claims longer than 15 months. In response, duration is predicted to decrease for claims with moderate injuries and increase for some severe claims so that claimants will miss more than 15 months of work and be excluded from the calculation. I show that contractors increased duration for severe claims but find no evidence that contractors successfully reduced duration for moderate claims. However, contractors received large bonus payments. This is likely because the financial reward to merely excluding a small share of severe claims from the calculation of the bonus payment is large enough to enable TCMs to receive the full bonus. These contractor responses are inconsistent with state intentions, suggesting public entities should anticipate strategic behavior when crafting performance-based incentives.     

Modelling transport fuel pathways: Achieving cost-effective oil use reduction in passenger cars in Sweden

Several technology and fuel options could be used to lower the strong oil dependence of the transportation sector. To formulate policies and to cost-effectively meet oil reduction objectives, assessments and comparisons of the long-term economic performances of different technology trajectories are essential. In this work, the energy and technology costs associated with reducing oil consumption in passenger cars in Sweden are calculated for a number of possible future transport fuel pathways and for different energy prices and climate policies. An optimisation model is applied in a simulatory multiple-run approach for this purpose. The model encompasses the transportation sector, as well as the stationary energy system. In terms of results, a methanol-based pathway gives incremental system costs in the range of ? 0.9–3 billion EUR for a complete phase-out of passenger car oil up to 2030. As compared to the methanol pathway, other biomass gasification-based fuel pathways involve additional incremental system costs in the region of 3 billion EUR, whereas ethanol- and electricity-based pathways give additional incremental system costs of 4–5 billion EUR. At lower oil reduction levels, the cost differences between the pathways are smaller and the electricity-based pathway is significantly more cost-competitive.     

Balance sheet in the REDD +: Are global estimates measuring the wrong costs?

This article challenges some of the assumptions underpinning the UN programme to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD +) in developing countries. Firstly, it argues that the cost-effectiveness of REDD + may have been exaggerated as current estimates ignore some cost categories as well as the evolution of drivers. Whilst REDD + remains a ‘low-hanging fruit’ for climate mitigation, if all costs were included estimates would be at the high end of the currently accepted range. Secondly, the article highlights that REDD + will be affected by a large funding gap at least until the entry into force of a new climate protocol in 2020. This gap is due as much to the poor status of public finances in donor countries as to the languishing state of carbon markets, and it calls for a revision of the assumptions regarding the design of the programme. Finally, it is advocated that, in order to contribute to the development of the programme, economic research on REDD + should consider different policy options, assessing their efficiency and identifying measures that increase their cost-effectiveness.