A revalidation of the savings–growth nexus in Pakistan

The aim of this study is to understand the relationship between savings and economic growth in Pakistan over the period 1971–2011. The cointegration and the Granger causality tests are adopted to examine the relationship between the variables. The results confirm the existence of long-run equilibrium among the variables of interest. Meanwhile, savings have positively affected economic growth in both the short run and long run. The Granger results also show that savings Granger-cause economic growth. Based upon these findings, we confirm that savings is a catalyst of growth for the Pakistani economy. Additionally, our results seem more likely to support the capital fundamentalists because the long run estimation as well as the Granger causality results also indicates that savings growth can effectively spur economic growth in Pakistan.     

Inflation and the finance–growth nexus

This paper re-investigates whether there exist inflation thresholds in the finance–growth linkage. By applying the Caner and Hansen's (2004) instrumental-variable threshold regression approach to the dataset of Levine et al. (2000), we find strong evidence of a nonlinear inflation threshold in the relationship, below which financial development exerts a significantly positive effect on economic growth, while, above which, the growth effect of finance appears to be insignificant. Furthermore, we also find a positive and significant relationship between finance and productivity for inflation rates below the threshold level, but no such relationship is detected for inflation rates above the critical level. This result suggests that finance influences growth mainly through the productivity channel.     

Non-linearities in inflation–growth nexus in the SADC region: A panel smooth transition regression approach

The main objective of central banks around the world is the achievement and maintenance of price stability, which actually creates an environment conducive for faster economic growth. Therefore, it is important for policy makers to understand the relationship between inflation and economic growth in order to make sound policies. If inflation is detrimental to economic growth, then policy makers should aim for low rates of inflation. This leads to a question; how low should the inflation rate be? Previous research in the non-linearities of the inflation–growth relationship has found that a positive relationship exists when the inflation rate is low and a negative relationship when the inflation rate is high. This implies the existence of a threshold level of inflation at which the sign switches. In this paper we use panel data for the period 1980–2008 to examine the inflation–growth nexus in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and to endogenously determine the threshold level of inflation. To deal with problems of endogeneity and heterogeneity, the paper uses the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) method developed by González et al. (2005) to examine the non-linearities in the inflation–growth nexus. This technique further estimates the smoothness of the transition from a low inflation to a high inflation regime. The findings reveal a threshold level of 18.9%, above which inflation is detrimental to economic growth in the SADC region.     

Institutions and the financial development–economic growth nexus in sub-Saharan Africa

Using a sample splitting approach that does not impose an exogenous quadratic term, we examine the effect of financial development on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa by allowing the link to be mediated by the level of institutions. Our findings reveal a disproportionate growth-enhancing effect of finance, given countries’ distinct level of institutional quality. More specifically, when the International Country Risk Guide-based measure of institutions is used as the threshold variable, below the optimal level of institutional quality, financial development does not significantly promote economic growth. For countries with institutional quality above the threshold, higher finance is associated with growth. However, when institutions are measured by World Governance Indicators proxy, we find a significant effect of financial development, irrespective of whether a country is below or above the threshold. Interestingly, the growth-enhancing effect of finance is greater for low-institution countries relative to high-institution countries. Thus, through its ability to provide some crucial roles, the well-developed financial sector may also perform the function of sound institutions in influencing economic growth.     

Nonlinear dynamics and the exports–output growth nexus

The untested assumption of a linear relationship between exports and output growth in previous empirical investigations may lead to invalid inference if the actual relationship is nonlinear. This paper re-examines the relationship between exports and economic growth in five industrialized economies (Canada, Italy, Japan, UK, and the US) with emphasis on the effect of nonlinearities on the causal relationships. Results from linearity tests show that nonlinearities do exist in the dynamic relationship between exports and GDP growth. Nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model results suggest that nonlinear Granger causality flows from exports to output growth and vice versa. Predictive accuracy tests further confirm the appropriateness of the nonlinear models over the linear model specification.     

Asymmetries in the revenue–expenditure nexus: A tale of three countries

The objective of this paper is to examine the government revenue and expenditure relationship in the context of what is known as the soft and hard budget constraint strategy. We adopt a nonlinear framework with structural breaks and focus our empirical analysis in three countries. Two of them represent the two extremes of polities in the EU: Sweden and Greece and the third, Germany is used for comparison purposes. Our results indicate absence of any asymmetries, TAR or MTAR, for Sweden and Germany. The symmetric ECM provides support for the fiscal synchronization hypothesis of revenues and expenditures in both countries. For Greece, however, we find evidence for asymmetries of the MTAR form, which in turn support the spend-and-tax hypothesis with asymmetric adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium. This indicates that the Greek fiscal authorities would cut deficits only if they exceeded a high “trigger” threshold, which gives support to the soft budget constraint strategy to gain political support. The fiscal adjustment takes place by cutting government expenditure. The out-of-sample forecast results suggest that a shift from a univariate model specification to a multivariate model improves marginally the forecast performance.     

Exchange rate volatility–economic growth nexus in Uganda

The global financial crisis has disrupted trade and capital flows in most developing economies, resulting in an increased volatility of exchange rates. We develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Uganda. Using data spanning the period 1960–2011, we find that exchange rate volatility positively affects economic growth in Uganda in both the short run and the long run. However, in the short run, political instability negatively moderates the exchange rate volatility–economic growth nexus. These results are robust to alternative specifications of the economic growth model.     

Economic freedom–growth nexus in European Union countries

This study examines the economic freedom and economic growth nexus in a panel of 28 European Union countries. We investigate the relationship between growth and different components of economic freedom, measured in five major areas of the Economic Freedom of the World index. The aim of the article is to assess which aspects of economic freedom – and to what extent – contribute to economic growth in the EU. Our empirical analyses suggest that the results are sensitive to the method of estimation. Using the Generalized Method of Moments estimator which allows addressing endogeneity, we found a positive relationship between economic growth and four of the five aspects of economic freedom: security of property rights, quality of monetary policy, freedom to trade and regulatory policies.     

What matters in the finance–growth nexus of advanced economies? Evidence from OECD countries

Over the last decades, a large strand of finance and growth literature has provided ample evidence on the importance of financial deepening for economic development. Yet, recently, the focus of public debate has shifted towards the role of the financial system structure, an area in which empirical research remains relatively sparse and exploratory in nature. With this article, we aim to contribute to that debate by analysing the role the financial system structure plays in economic growth and risk. Focusing on stock markets and studying OECD economies over 1994–2013, we find that, ceteris paribus, financial systems with relatively larger stock markets facilitate economic growth and dampen economic risk. Our findings remain robust under application of instrumental variable and system generalized method of moments estimators, as well as when we use an alternative definition of stock market development, estimate median regressions, examine relatively high-frequency annual data, control for systemic banking crises or apply quadratic specifications. We find no such effect for private bond markets or private credit volume. Overall, our results suggest that financial system structure matters for the economic development of advanced economies and highlight the importance of a debate about the optimal structure of an economy’s financial system.     

A smooth coefficient quantile regression approach to the social capital–economic growth nexus

This analysis assesses the role of social capital in generating heterogeneity in growth processes across U.S. counties by estimating growth regressions, using the novel semiparametric smooth coefficient quantile regression method in which parameters are unspecified functions of a measure of social capital. The results indicate substantial differences across the quantiles of economic growth in the profile shapes of the coefficient estimates over the level of social capital. Moreover, the coefficient function estimates are highly nonlinear over the level of social capital, providing evidence that the growth process that links initial income, education attainment, ethnic diversity, inequality, population density, and government activity to growth varies with social capital in a nonlinear way.     

Revisiting the finance–growth nexus: the Turkish case, 1980–2010

In Turkey, the empirical results on the link between financial development and economic growth are mixed. The existing studies do not take into account the fact that Turkey has experienced endemic political and economic instabilities over extended periods. This study aims to analyse the role of macroeconomic instability and public borrowing on the finance–growth nexus in Turkey by using time series econometric techniques over the 1980–2010 period. In doing so, we attempt to extend the existing literature by taking into account the role of macroeconomic instability as well as public borrowing. Our results reveal that there are additional – albeit indirect – channels between finance and growth via the effects of macro instability and public borrowing on financial development and economic growth. After taking into account the effects of overall instability and public borrowing, we found that growth–financial development relationship is bidirectional and permanent. In other words, in Turkish case, economic growth and financial development are jointly determined. Thus, our results shed some light on the ambiguity of the evidence on the link between financial development and economic growth for Turkey.     

The growth–distribution nexus in a mixed regime of education with a status motive: On the macroeconomics of the welfare state

We develop a growth model with human capital accumulation to study the effects of status-driven motivation on individuals' choice between public or private education. This choice interacts with and exacerbates the effects of status, with implications for growth and distribution. More motivated individuals work harder and choose private education. In a majority voting/median voter setup, individuals choose a public education size for which there is no trade-off between long-term growth and inequality. We also highlight the conflict of interest between individuals with respect to the size of the public education sector and the tax rate that supports it. We thus highlight important interactions between the macroeconomy, social attitudes and educational institutions and derive results of interest in a variety contexts. We end by drawing policy conclusions among which, the idea that in democracies, higher growth and lower inequality are mutually compatible when the government promotes public education.     

Beyond fuelwood savings: Valuing the economic benefits of introducing improved biomass cookstoves in the Purépecha region of Mexico

Half of the world population relies on biomass for cooking, with very significant health as well as climate change impacts. Improved cookstoves have been disseminated as an alternative to reduce these impacts. However, few detailed studies about the economic benefits of improved cookstoves (ICS) interventions, including environmental and health co-benefits, exist to date. In this paper we perform a comprehensive economic evaluation of a dissemination program of ICS in rural Mexico. The resulting cost–benefit analysis (CBA) of the Patsari improved cookstove is presented, utilizing estimation of direct costs and benefits, including fuelwood savings, income generation, health impacts, environmental conservation, and reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis is based on comprehensive data obtained through monitoring studies carried out in the Study Area from 2003 to the present. Results show that Patsari cookstoves represent a viable economic option for improving living conditions of the poorest inhabitants of rural Mexico, with benefit/cost ratios estimated between 11.4:1 and 9:1. The largest contributors to economic benefits stemmed from fuelwood savings and reductions in health impacts, which constituted 53% and 28% of the overall benefit, respectively.     

Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests

This study is an attempt to test the long run relationship between international tourism and economic growth of Pakistan by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models over the period of 1972 to 2011. The initial results show that the causality runs from tourism to economic growth. Furthermore, the estimated growth regression clearly indicates that the international tourism has a significantly positive impact on the economic growth of Pakistan along with other variables like physical capital and international trade. This implies that the improvement in the tourism sector may enhance the economic growth activities in Pakistan.     

Energy and capital inputs: cornerstones of productivity growth in Mexico: 1965–2004

Gross domestic product per remunerated labor (GDP/L), known as the Mexican average productivity, grew very rapidly from 1965 to 1979; it increased at an average annual rate of 3.7%. But from 1979 through 2004, productivity stagnated with an average annual growth rate of only 0.19%. The hypothesis is that from 1965 through 1979, productivity increased rapidly because of concomitant growth in the utilized capital and energy per worker and the improvements in technology. After 1979, the productivity growth came to a standstill because of a slowdown in investment and stagnation in the utilized capital and energy per worker due to the sharply rising energy prices. The tool chosen to test this hypothesis is an aggregate Cobb-Douglas production function characterized by technical change embodied in the gross investment in new machinery and equipment. The estimation of this model shows energy as a cornerstone of productivity growth independent of capital and new technology.     

Dynamics of the growth–inequality nexus in China: roles of surplus labor,openness, education,and technical change in province-panel analysis†

The paper examines the complex interrelationship between economic growth and the urban–rural income inequality in China by estimating a simultaneous equation system. This study uses a panel data-set that covers 29 provinces from 1988 to 2007, and compares the earlier period with the later period. It finds a robust and positive impact of the rural surplus labor on urban–rural inequality, which is consistent with Lewis’ dual economy theory. Economic growth is found to aggravate the urban–rural inequality in the earlier period, but there is no hard evidence in the later period. This implies that China has not yet, or at least by 2007, entered the second stage of the Kuznets curve. We also find no robust evidence on the impact of the inequality on growth in either period, but find robust evidence on the impact of both foreign direct investment and exports on the increasing inequality during the earlier period, whereas no significant impact in the later period is found. Finally, the spread of education reduced the inequality in the earlier period, but no such impact is robust in the later period.     

A time‐series approach to the determination of savings rates

Time series analysis is used to study the savings rate and its determinants. The real effective exchange rate is introduced as a new independent variable in the savings function. Borrowing constraints, the current account balance, real rate of interest, macroeconomic stability, and age dependency are shown to be significant determinants of the savings rate. In addition, the real effective exchange rate is found to be significant across countries. Violations of Purchasing Power Parity are shown to explain some of the differences in savings rates between Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.     

An empirical analysis of household savings in France 1984–1998

In this paper we analyse the saving behaviour of French households by cohort and by age. We exploit two data sets: the Household Budget Surveys (HBS) allow us to define saving as residual of income minus consumption, while the Financial Assets Surveys (FAS) give us saving as changes in wealth. We make use of both financial assets surveys, gross them up using national accounts, and distinguish between “active” and “passive” saving.In France, tax policies appear to be one of the main factors that explain the recent evolution of household saving rates. The complex tax treatment of savings and capital income as well as the way in which households perceive the future of the French retirement pension system (5) also help to explain the composition of active and passive saving.