Issue costs and regulated returns: A general approach

This paper sets forth a general, unified procedure for the treatment of flotation costs for the regulated utility, a method which reduces to standard treatments as special cases. In this approach, the regulated return becomes a weighted average of the required rates on different portions of equity capital, portions that are distinguished by whether or not issue costs are incurred in their acquisition. In addition, the method provides solutions for a host of financial environments, including solutions where past flotation costs are to be recognized, and where merged utilities with different flotation-cost recovery patterns must be combined.     

Switching costs and screening efficiency of incomplete contracts

We study the role of switching costs in a dynamic buyer-seller relationship where quality is not contractible and the sellers retain private information about their quality-relevant abilities. In this environment buyer switching costs increase the seller's bargaining power in negotiations for the second contract, but they also induce the seller to improve quality during the first ontract, in signalling his type. The overall effect is to enhance efficiency and ncrease the buyer's welfare. This beneficial effect stems from the link between quality, the buyer's posterior beliefs, and ex post distribution of bargaining power as a function of the switching cost. JEL Classification: L14
L'auteur étudie le rôle des coûts de commutation dans une relation dynamique acheteur-vendeur où la qualité de la prestation ne peut être partie du contrat, et où les vendeurs peuvent rationner l'information quant à leurs compétences à livrer un produit de qualité. Dans ce contexte, les coûts de commutation de l'acheteur accroissent le pouvoir de marchandage du vendeur dans la négociation du second contrat, mais ils peuvent aussi inciter le vendeur à améliorer la qualité au cours du premier contrat pour signaler ses compétences à l'acheteur. L'effet global est d'améliorer l'efficacité et d'accroître le bien-être de l'acheteur. Cet effet bénéfique émerge du lien entre la qualité, les croyances de l'acheteur a posteriori, et la répartition du pouvoir de négociation ex post en tant que fonction des coûts de commutation.     

Expanded newborn screening for genetic and metabolic disorders: modeling costs and outcomes

Newborn screening for genetic and metabolic disorders is a state-based public health program in the United States, for the elimination and/or reduction of associated mortality, morbidity, and disabilities. As new technologies for newborn screening and new interventions for treatment are realized, it will be increasingly important for health leaders and policymakers to have data to inform their decisions regarding expanding newborn testing. The entire costs of a screening program, including not only instrumentation but also labor and time costs; initial, repeat, and confirmatory testing; screening sensitivity and specificity; and short and long-term followup, should be considered in decisions regarding expansion of screening programs. The decision model cited in this study can serve as a tool in exploring alternatives for critical decisions regarding the addition of new disorders to existing newborn screening panels. The evaluation of genetic disorders in this study can be used as a prototype of an approach to evaluating screening for any newborn genetic/metabolic disorder.     

The overlooked costs of the permanent war economy: A market process approach

How does the permanent war economy interact, and subsume, the private, non-military economy? Can the two remain at a distance while sharing resource pools? This paper argues that they cannot. Once the U.S. embarked upon the path of permanent war, starting with World War II, the result was a permanent war economy. The permanent war economy continuously draws resources into the military sector at the expense of the private economy, even in times of peace. We explore the overlooked costs of this process. The permanent war economy does not just transfer resources from the private economy, but also distorts and undermines the market process which is ultimately responsible for improvements in standards of living.     

Regulating an externality-generating public utility: A multi-dimensional screening approach

In this paper, I present a monopoly screening model in which a firm holds private information on fixed abatement costs. Because of the nature of the optimal contracts, bunching is never optimal even with ‘n’ distinct types. A characterization of full and limited information solutions is offered and it is shown that the design standards alone determine the value of an information rent. The variable charge is completely free of any marginal information costs. This allows the variable charge to track marginal damages and thereby ensures that marginal social costs are covered. A fixed charge implements the optimal solution.     

The effects of inflation uncertainty on interest rates: a nonlinear approach

In this article, we investigate the effects of inflation variability on short-term interest rates within a nonlinear smooth transition regression framework. The test results suggest that only the conditional mean of the inflation is a nonlinear process whereas the conditional variance is time variant but linear. Using the square root of conditional variance as a proxy for inflation risk, we estimate Fisher equation augmented with inflation risk. Although the estimated Fisher equations suggest that inflation risk reduces short-term interest rates, we find that the effects of inflation risk on interest rates are regime-dependent. Particularly, we find that the negative effects of inflation variability on nominal rates are greater in low-inflationary regimes when compared to high-inflationary regimes. On the other hand, it is found that both inflation and inflation uncertainty raise the expected inflation effect.     

The determinants of international reserves in the emerging countries: a nonlinear approach

In this article, we adopt a nonlinear approach to examine the dynamics of the international reserves holdings by the emerging economies. To do so, we estimate the demand for international reserves with a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model that loosens two restricting hypotheses, homogeneity and time-stability. We find evidence for the presence of a nonlinear behaviour in the demand for international reserves, a result that is new to the literature. The coefficients are found to change smoothly, as a function of two threshold variables – out of five candidates tested in total. Our specification accounts for the acceleration of foreign exchange reserves accumulation that the linear specifications fail to explain.     

Measuring fixed costs for firms’ use of a free trade agreement: Threshold regression approach

By employing the threshold regression method, we estimate the average tariff equivalent of fixed costs for the use of a free trade agreement (FTA) among all existing FTAs in the world. It is estimated to be around 3%.     

Incorporating distributional considerations in the safe minimum standard approach: endangered species and local impacts

Explicitly incorporating current distributional concerns into the safe minimum standard (SMS) approach is the objective of this study. The SMS approach is a collective choice process that prescribes protecting a minimum level of a renewable natural resource unless the social costs of doing so are somehow excessive or intolerably high. More complete implementation of an SMS approach, if it is to be a pragmatic policy tool, requires that distributional considerations be included in determining whether the economic consequences of preservation actions are intolerable. Two case studies involving the US Endangered Species Act are used to illustrate how distributional concerns might be incorporated into the SMS approach.     

Transaction costs and the property rights approach to the theory of the firm

The standard property rights approach is focused on ex ante investment incentives, while there are no transaction costs that might restrain ex post negotiations. We explore the implications of such transaction costs. Prominent conclusions of the property rights theory may be overturned: A party may have stronger investment incentives when a non-investing party is the owner, and joint ownership can be the uniquely optimal ownership structure. Intuitively, an ownership structure that is unattractive in the standard model may now be desirable, because it implies large gains from trade, such that the parties are more inclined to incur the transaction costs.     

Detecting cointegration relationships under nonlinear models: Monte Carlo analysis and some applications

Testing for cointegration in the presence of nonlinear adjustments or structural breaks is important for examining the equilibrium relationship among economic variables. It is known that standard cointegration tests perform poorly when a cointegration relationship has nonlinear adjustments or structural breaks. However, it is not clear how some cointegration tests allowing for nonlinearity perform under other classes of nonlinear cointegration models. This paper investigates which cointegration tests help detect a cointegration relationship with nonlinear adjustments or structural breaks. Our Monte Carlo simulation results demonstrate that the cointegration test with threshold adjustment generally has better power performance under most cointegration relationships with nonlinearity. We also provide empirical applications to the money demand and term structure of the U.S. interest rates. The empirical results show that the test allowing for threshold adjustment provides strong evidence of the cointegration relationships of money demand and the term structure of interest rates.     

Disequilibrium theory,waiting costs,and saving behavior in centrally planned economies: A queueing-theoretic approach

An expected-utility maximizer, obliged to make a single purchase from two alternatives, finds that a queue forms for the good that would have been selected had both goods been available. An M/M/1 queue is posited and for each period of delay the maximum additional payment $\text{b}{}^1$ that the consumer would incur to join the queue is determined. This has implications for saving. Not only the availability of the good, but also the delay in obtaining it, the alteration in its arrival rate, and the “stampede effect” determine saving behavior.     

Functioning, capability and the standard of living – an axiomatic approach

Summary. The standard of living of an agent is viewed as her capability of achieving various functionings (Sen, 1985, 1987). The agent is thus characterized by her capability set that consists of different functioning vectors. The task of measuring the standard of living of the agent formally is therefore to rank different capability sets. This paper explores the problem of ranking capability sets in terms of the standard of living offered to the agent. For this purpose, we consider capability sets that are non-degenerate, compact, comprehensive and convex subsets of the -dimensional real space, propose several intuitively plausible properties for the ranking and give characterizations of some ranking rules. Received: April 10, 2000; revised version: June 18, 2001     

Forecasting nonlinear economic time series: A simple test to accompany the nearest neighbor approach

This paper is based on a recent nonparametric forecasting approach by Sugihara, Grenfell and May (1990) to improve the short term prediction of nonlinear chaotic processes. The idea underlying their forecasting algorithm is as follows: For a nonlinear low-dimensional process, a state space reconstruction of the observed time series exhibits spatial correlation, which can be exploited to improveshort term forecasts by means of locally linear approximations. Still, the important question of evaluating the forecast perfomance is very much an open one, if the researcher is confronted with data that are additionally disturbed by stochastic noise. To account for this problem, a simple nonparametric test to accompany the algorithm is suggested here. To demonstrate its practical use, the methodology is applied to observed price series from commodity markets. It can be shown that the short term predictability of the best fitting linear model can be improved upon significantly by this method.     

Expectations and learning under alternative monetary regimes: an experimental approach

Summary We design and analyze experimental versions of monetary overlapping generations economies under alternative policy regimes. Economies with a constant level of real deficit financed through seignorage, economies in which the level of deficit is adapted in order to follow a monetary policy with a target rate of inflation, and economies with preannounced changes in deficit levels are reported here. We also examine the behavior of an economy with no stationary competitive equilibrium. Our time series are compared to rational expectations equilibrium paths and to adaptive learning dynamics.Financial support for our work from the Graduate School of the University of Minnesota, the National Science Foundation (SES-8912552), Richard M. and Margaret Cyert Family Funds, and the Ministry of Education of Spain is gratefully acknowledged. We wish to thank Javier Diaz-Giménez, Jean Michael Grandmont, Robert Lucas, Albert Marcet, Charles Plott, Edward Prescott, Thomas Sargent, Neil Wallace and Michael Woodford for commenting on our work. We also thank Vijay Rajan for developing the software for the computerized experimental environment, and Jackie Cuccaro and Dhananjay Gode for their research assistance.     

Testing efficiency of the ruble-sterling foreign-exchange market under the gold standard

This paper tests an efficient market hypothesis for the Russian ruble–UK sterling exchange rates in the gold standard period 1897–1913. Using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods it is shown how to test a weak-form market efficiency in a doubly truncated regression model with ARMA-GARCH error. The suggested model accounts for time series characteristics of the data and bounds of exchange rates caused by the gold points and government intervention. We find that the weak-form efficiency hypothesis can not be rejected for the gold standard ruble exchange rates in both St.Petersburg and London markets.