Scenario tree airline fleet planning for demand uncertainty

This paper proposes an innovative multi-period modeling approach to solve the airline fleet planning problem under demand uncertainty. The problem is modeled using a scenario tree approach. The tree is composed of nodes, which represent points of decision in multiple time stages of the planning horizon, and branches, representing demand variation scenarios. The branches link the decision nodes in consequent time stages and compose scenario paths. Fleet decisions are modeled according to these scenario paths, resembling the real-life process in which fleet plans are not defined in a single moment but instead are adjusted according to the demand development. Given that some scenario paths share common decision nodes, decisions among scenarios need to be synchronized. A mixed-integer linear programming model is proposed to determine the ideal fleet composition for each scenario in the tree and to describe this interdependency between scenarios. Considering the probability of a scenario, fleet composition probabilities for each time-period can be determined. Two real-world based case studies are performed to show the validity of the model. Results show that the proposed scenario tree approach can provide flexible multi-period airline fleet plans, which are more robust to future demand scenarios than fleet solutions obtained using the traditional approach of considering a single deterministic demand evolution scenario.     

Environmental benefits of air–rail intermodality: The example of Madrid Barajas

The environmental impact of transport is a growing issue in transport infrastructure planning. The construction of a high-speed rail station at the Madrid Barajas Airport in Spain is an example of the integration of different transportation modes, with expected environmental benefits. We construct a model to assess modal choice and environmental benefits. The results show that with high-speed rail the number of people choosing air travel and the private car is reduced leading to important environmental benefits: a reduction of close to 5 kg of CO₂ per passenger, or 10% of all emissions on the corridor. Our results also show that increasing the cost of using the private car is picked up by air transport rather than high-speed rail, leading to an increase in total emissions.     

鄂尔多斯铁路枢纽客运系统布局方案研究

为加强鄂尔多斯铁路枢纽建设,提高鄂尔多斯与外界联系通道的运输能力,完善铁路枢纽内客运系统布局,基于鄂尔多斯铁路枢纽现状分析,结合城市现状规划和枢纽客运预测,从铁路枢纽内线路走向、铁路枢纽内客运站布局、枢纽内高速铁路车站选址3个方面,对鄂尔多斯铁路枢纽客运系统布局方案进行研究。经综合比选分析,分别采用沿既有铁路通道的中线引入方案、高速铁路"两站"格局方案及新设东胜北站。在此基础上,提出鄂尔多斯铁路枢纽内客运站建设方案,不断提高鄂尔多斯与外界联系通道的运输能力。     

The associations of newly launched high-speed rail stations with industrial gentrification

Industrial gentrification occurs when lower-skill or lower-wage industries are displaced by higher-skill or higher-wage industries caused by various driving forces. This research explored the associations of newly launched high-speed rail (HSR) stations with industrial gentrification. Sample data were obtained from business registration records from 2010 to 2018 for areas surrounding the Hangzhou East Railway Station (a new HSR station in newly developing areas) and Hangzhou Railway Station (a pre-existing rail station in developed areas) in China. Cox proportional hazard regressions were applied to analyze the survival risks of businesses. Empirical results suggest that the newly launched HSR services have induced industrial gentrification in the developed station area. Except for the displacement of agricultural production activities, HSR-induced industrial gentrification has not yet been manifested in the newly developed station area. The latter phenomenon is because of the sufficiently available lands and floor spaces for industrial development and the lower-skill or lower-wage industries and higher-skill or higher-wage industries that benefit from HSR services in the form of revenues.     

基于演化博弈的高铁快运物流基地经营模式选择策略研究

高铁快运动车组是铁路与航空、公路在快运物流市场竞争中的优势装备之一,需要依托专用高铁快运物流基地进行作业组织。为推动高铁快运规模化、批量化发展,促进形成快运物流干线运输供给新业态,完善支撑高铁快运动车组成网运行的节点网络建设,结合高铁快运物流基地功能定位特征及多元化投资主体,提出高铁快运物流基地独立经营模式和联合经营模式,比较分析两者的优劣势,通过构建演化博弈模型分析高铁快运物流基地经营模式选择的内在动态决策机理,应用算例分析验证模型的有效性,为高铁快运物流基地经营模式选择提供决策参考。     

城市轨道交通车站旅客换乘效率评价模型研究

通过分析城市轨道交通车站换乘系统,从快速性、便捷性、舒适性和安全性方面构建城市轨道交通车站旅客换乘效率评价指标体系。运用灰色系统理论,建立基于综合灰色关联加权法的城市轨道交通车站换乘效率评价模型。以重庆轻轨2号线车站为例,计算了5个车站的换乘效率综合评价值并进行排序,认为该评价模型具有一定的可操作性和实用性。     

Three-stage airline fleet planning model

One of the main factors affecting airline success is bringing supply and demand as closely together as possible. In order to achieve this goal, an airline needs to adopt an appropriate methodological approach for the fleet planning process. Selection of an aircraft for operating a defined route network is a key element which has a direct impact on the increase of an airline's profitability and on the reduction of an airline's costs. The objective of this paper is to develop a robust model for fleet planning that deals with both fleet size and fleet composition problems for airlines operating on short haul and medium haul routes. The three-stage model for fleet planning involves approximate fleet composition, fleet sizing and aircraft type selection based on fuzzy logic, heuristic and analytic approaches, and multi-criteria decision making, respectively. This model is exemplified with a hypothetical airline based at Belgrade Airport.     

High-speed rail and office location choices. A stated choice experiment for the Netherlands

High-speed rail is seen as a factor contributing to the attractiveness of a location for economic activities. This paper focuses on how the level-of-service characteristics of railway stations, and in particular the presence of high-speed train services, influence the attractiveness of locations for specific types of offices. The results are presented for a stated choice experiment for location choices of offices in the Netherlands. It is concluded that the availability of high-speed train services contributes to the attractiveness of a location for offices. For internationally-oriented offices the areas around stations with international high-speed train services are attractive because of their good international accessibility. We also found an indication that high-speed train services can raise the status of an office site. In the Netherlands, the domestic high-speed train services are less relevant for location choices, because of the small domestic distances. Besides high-speed train services, other location characteristics that determine how well a site is connected to the railway network are also found to be important for location choices. Thereby differences between offices occur, which can partly be explained by the number of trips to/from an office.     

A methodology for prioritising HSR corridors: from U.S. theory to Spanish practice

The assessment of methodologies to prioritise the construction of new high-speed rail (HSR) corridors has recently become a key issue for transport planners in countries like the U.S., where HSR does not exist. In a climate of financial instability since the onset of the global crisis of 2007–2008, support for new projects is being eroded by serious concerns over the extremely steep costs of high-speed rail, and there is a need for the scientific clarification of the procedure for prioritizing construction.In 2009 a new ranking methodology was developed and applied to 30,000 city pairs in the U.S. to determine their suitability for high-speed rail investment. The existing literature on ranking tools for prioritising HSR corridors is practically non-existent, and, as none of these U.S. lines has been built or put into in operation, this methodology has not been validated. The main aim of this paper is to contribute to these ranking models and highlight their importance in the HSR planning process. The preliminary ranking tool described in this work has been validated using data from the current HSR Spanish network. The results confirm the consistency of the model as a first approach to ranking pairs, mainly for the top O–D relations; however the model has some drawbacks chiefly due to the type of variables used, and their assigned weightings. Finally, some specific improvements are proposed for this ranking approach in order to provide policymakers with a useful tool when planning the construction of new HSR networks.     

Urban rail systems investments: an analysis of the impacts on property values and residents’ location

Light rail, metro and other urban rail transit systems can play a significant role in improving the attractiveness and quality of urban public transport. They can influence the attractiveness of locations near the stations and improve accessibility for these locations. Furthermore urban rail can improve a location’s attractiveness by its image effect: it makes a station appear modern and dynamic, and thus raises the status of this location.This paper summarises findings on the land-use and economic impacts of the urban rail system of the city of Naples over time and space. It examines changes in residential and non-residential (offices and retail) property prices around the newly built stations between 2001 and 2008 as well as the changes in the number of residents for the same station catchment areas. Ad hoc station control areas have been specified in order to compare the results of these changes. Results show that values in station control areas are lower than those of those of the stations catchment areas.     

对郑西铁路客运专线运营效益的思考

郑西铁路客运专线是继京津城际铁路、武广铁路客运专线开通之后的又一条高速铁路客运专线,是目前我国中西部开通的第一条铁路客运专线,对促进西部大开发和中部经济崛起将起到重要的推动作用。分析郑西铁路客运专线经济效益,探讨如何搞好郑西铁路客运专线运营。     

An analysis of air mass effects on rail ridership in three US cities

This paper examines whether daily weather affects ridership in urban transportation systems. When examining human–weather relationships, it is often advantageous to examine air masses, which take into account the entire parcel of air over a region. Spatial synoptic classification characterizes air masses based upon numerous meteorological variables at a given location. Thus, rather than examining temperature or precipitation individually, here we compare daily ridership to synoptic air mass classifications for three urban rail systems: Chicago Transit Authority (CTA), Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART), and the Hudson–Bergen light-rail line in northern New Jersey. Air masses are found to have a significant impact on daily rail ridership, with usage typically increasing on dry, comfortable days and decreasing on moist, cool ones, particularly on weekends. Although the comfort of a particular air mass changes throughout the year, seasonality is not a significant factor with respect to the air mass–ridership relationship. The results of this study can benefit rail system managers who must predict daily ridership or in the development of cost-benefit analyses for station improvements.     

高速铁路与资源节约

高速铁路相对于其他运输方式,在五个方面充分发挥了节约资源的比较优势。在节约能源方面．高速铁路较公路和航空,单位运量能耗显著降低,同时发挥了“以电代油”的技术优势。在节约土地方面,高速铁路大量采用“以桥代路”,节地效果明显;与公路、民航相比,单位运输量土地占用很小。在节约材料方面,高速铁路动车组采用轻量化技术,制造材料用量大幅减少;同时高速运行加快了车辆周转,相应减少了车辆投入数量。在节约人力方面,高速铁路大量采用信息化、自动化等新技术,创新劳动组织,实现自助化服务,提高了劳动生产率,节约了宝贵的人力资源。在节约时间方面,高速铁路采用高速度、高密度、全天候运行方案,借助市内交通的有机衔接,大幅缩短了点到点旅行时间,改善了人们出行方式的选择。     

中国高铁客站的创新与实践

高速铁路客站,既是高速铁路的重要组成部分,也是国家综合交通体系的重要节点和带动城市发展不可或缺的重要因子。伴随着我国高速铁路的快速发展．铁路客站的建设迎来了难得的发展机遇。历经6年多的探索与实践,我国高速铁路客站在建设理念、关键技术、工程管理等方面取得了重要进展。介绍中国铁路客站的规划与进展,剖析中国高铁客站建设存在的挑战,简述中国高铁客站的建设目标和实施路径,总结中国高铁客站取得的显著成效。     

站城融合理念下铁路站区综合开发的思考与建议

铁路客站作为城市与交通网络的重要组成部分,具有强大的集聚和辐射效应,客站周边往往成为聚集商业、服务业、办公、居住等多种功能的综合性区域,在拉动城市经济、重塑城市格局、高效利用土地等方面发挥了重要作用,作为供给侧为新型城镇化、都市圈发展提供了新的驱动力。当前,我国城市建设进入高质量发展阶段,国家不断出台政策支持建设综合立体交通网,支持高铁建设与城镇化融合发展,铁路站区综合开发迎来重要的战略机遇期。文章以铁路站区TOD上盖开发为主要研究对象,阐述现阶段铁路站区综合开发的支持政策、开发与管理现状,分析我国铁路站区TOD开发进展缓慢的成因,提出加快推进铁路站区综合开发的建议。     

Long-distance trips in a sparsely populated region: The impact of high-speed infrastructures

This paper aims to analyze the different territorial performance of two new high-speed transport infrastructures, a national motorway and a high-speed rail (HSR) line, with an emphasis on their different roles on long-distance trip making, in a peripheral and sparsely populated province of Spain, contributing to the existing limited research on the influence of high-speed transport infrastructures on urban structure and mobility of sparsely populated regions.The paper provides empirical evidence by means of a mobility survey. The analysis of modal split, travel frequencies, and travel purposes allows a better understanding of long-distance mobility patterns and establishes different travel profiles. The study of commuting and discretionary flows shows different levels and types of metropolitan integration depending on the type of connection and on local characteristics.     

Market effects of regional high-speed trains on the Svealand line

When the Svealand line in Sweden opened in 1997, it replaced an older railway line between Eskilstuna and Stockholm (a distance of 115 km). Service on the Svealand line is operated with regional high-speed trains. In a case study of the effects of regional high-speed train services, changes in knowledge, valuations and travel behaviour have been analysed. The Svealand line has sparked an increase in regional rail travel of up to seven times compared to the old railway between Eskilstuna and Stockholm. Additionally, the market share has risen from 6% to 30%. Travelling times are valued highly and motorists, particularly, place great value on the high-speed train mode of transport.A general conclusion is that regional high-speed train services have had a major impact on the travel market and on travel behaviour. The improved accessibility to Stockholm, in particular, is especially noticeable among residents living close to the railway stations.     

Competition and cooperation between high-speed rail and air transportation services in Europe

New high-speed rail (HSR) lines may have an enormous influence on the provision of air services. The attention has been devoted to competition between both transportation modes but in some cases HSR services may also have an intermodal complementary role with air transportation. By taking a supply oriented empirical analysis, we study the impact of HSR on air service frequencies and seats offered by airlines in large European countries. We emphasize the distinction between routes with and without a hub airport as an endpoint and we also examine the influence of the location of the HSR station. We generally find direct competition between HSR and airlines, but we also provide some evidence that HSR can provide feeding services to long haul air services in hub airports, particularly in hub airports with HRS stations.     

Bergen light rail – Effects on travel behaviour

Bergen is the second most populous city in Norway (280,000 inhabitants) and is situated along the west coast of the country. In 2010, the city reintroduced tram service with the opening of a new light rail line, after a gap of 45 years. This study documents the increase in public transit use in Bergen, both in terms of volume and market share, since the line was opened. Furthermore, it explores the effects of light rail transit on travel behaviour using Bergen as a case city. These goals are accomplished by combining and analysing data from different sources, including five travel surveys, and other data concerning building stock, population, business activity, commuting and traffic counts. The study identifies four potential driving forces for changes in travel behaviour: (1) the introduction of the light rail; (2) a new high-frequency bus network; (3) increased rates in the toll cordon system; and (4) changes in the urban structure. The study concluded that the introduction of light rail was the main driving force behind the growth in public transit use. The study also highlighted that transit use was highest in areas served by the light rail. The effects of the light rail investments are reinforced by an optimal location of the line with respect to potential users.     

铁路＋物业服务＋效益——新一代铁路旅客车站设计探索

我国近期建设的以高铁站为代表的第三代铁路客站,强调“以人为本”的理念,创新成就斐然,但对车站的经济效益尚缺少分析和规划,存在经营短板。在铁路体制改革的今天,“以人为本”的服务更需要长期良好的经营效益来保障和维持。在分析铁路客站发展轨迹的基础上．着重从铁路与物业结合的方式、旅客与顾客的关系、建筑设计与商业策划原则等方面探讨“铁路＋物业”的客站模式,以期为新一代铁路旅客车站的建设方向提供参考。