Euston station redevelopment: Regeneration or gentrification?

The redevelopment of railways stations and their surrounding neighbourhoods offers many opportunities in terms of regeneration, yet there are also concerns over the potential gentrification of areas and displacement of the existing population and local businesses. The most prominent voice on these issues is typically from the project promoter, reflecting their position of power in the decision-making process, but there are other voices to be understood, including varied views from the local community.This paper uses Q methodology to develop discourses associated with the proposed High Speed Two project and redevelopment of Euston station and the surrounding neighbourhoods. 28 in-depth surveys are used with local residents, local employees, politicians, local government officers and academics, covering attitudes to the proposed Euston redevelopment. The Q method analysis highlights three major discourses: the ‘Community Activist’, the ‘Rail Promoter’, and the ‘Optimistic Practitioner’. Understanding these different discourses, and their components, is important for decision-makers in ensuring that investment strategies can better reflect the different viewpoints evident in the public domain. Ultimately, this can help to improve the social consequences of transport investment.     

Mobility or mobilities: Terrestrial, virtual and aerial categories or entities?

This article attempts to assess the three leading categories of mobility: terrestrial, virtual and aerial, in order to see whether they constitute categories of a single entity of mobility, or alternatively, they constitute three distinct entities of mobility. This exercise is of significance because of the tendency to refer to ‘mobility’ in a rather general sense. Coping with this question, we will, first, put it within a review of relevant concepts and structures. Then, we will elaborate on the distinct features of each of the three mobility categories through their comparison, highlighting mainly differences among them. This will be followed by a presentation of a somehow opposite perspective through the examination of convergences among the three categories of mobility. These two discussions will lead us to view mobility as one single entity consisting of three categories, since all the three categories are IT-based and IT-dependent, and given that they all share a similar model of mobility cycles for both moving people and mobility systems. Using this approach we will compare terrestrial public and personal mobilities, as well as aerial and virtual mobilities, followed by a discussion on implications of a single general mobility model.     

Global air travel: toward concentration or dispersal?

The geography of airline passenger movement through the major cities of the world has changed between 1990 and 2000. The change has been at the expense of the very large global cities and major hubs in favour of a group of next largest cities. It has been detected by comparing the shares of total passenger movement through cities in two separate ways, and by exploring changes in the connectivity between cities over a similar time period. The new pattern reflects the use of new aircraft technology, changes in the location of demand for air travel associated with a broadening in the global linkages between cities, new regulatory arrangements and airline corporate strategies. The implications are that the pressures for airport planning will be felt in a new set of cities, although because the share of passenger traffic through the very large global cities is still high they will remain a major focus for airport planning and management action in the immediate future.     

Carless in California: Green choice or misery?

Approximately 1 million Californian households do not own a motor vehicle (hereafter a “car”). These households, who are often forgotten in transportation policy discussions, can be organized into two groups based on whether they are voluntarily carless or not. Understanding why some households decide to voluntarily forgo cars could inform policies aiming at reducing our dependency on cars. Understanding the plight of households who are not able to own a car is no less important as these households are at greater risk of social exclusion. Unfortunately, our knowledge of carless households is still sketchy so the purpose of this paper is to start filling this gap. We analyze data from the 2012 California Household Travel Survey using univariate tests and Generalized Structural Equation Models (GSEM) that account for residential self-selection to assess the impacts of various socio-economic and built environment variables on the likelihood to be carless, voluntarily or not. Our results (GSEM Model 1) indicate that carless households are more likely to have less education, a lower income, and a smaller number of members than motorized families. They also tend to live in denser, more land-use diverse, and more walkable areas with better transit coverage. Contrasting voluntarily and involuntarily carless households (GSEM Model 3), we find that involuntarily carless households are less affluent on average and they tend to live in areas that are less land-use diverse, less walkable, and with worse transit coverage. Finally, although residential self-selection is present, its impacts are minor.     

Alternative railway futures: growth and/or specialisation?

Recent centuries have seen a succession of transport technologies, each offering improvements in speed, carrying capacity and/or operational flexibility. Having overcome many physical barriers to freedom of movement, humanity now faces two major, related challenges: dwindling reserves of fossil fuels, and anthropogenic climate change. In these circumstances, rail transport has significant potential advantages over the more energy-intensive modes of road and air.Railways dominated 19th century land transport, peaking in importance in the early 1900s. Market share then declined in the face of competition from road transport and aviation, although rail retained significant passenger and freight transport roles. Major improvements in railway operating efficiency were introduced later in the 20th century, including: the switch from steam to diesel and electric traction; containerisation and focus on long-haul, unit-train freight operations; and the development of high-speed passenger rail services in Japan and Europe, enabling rail to compete successfully with air travel over distances of up to 800 km.The UK Government’s Foresight Programme commissioned a report entitled Intelligent Infrastructure Futures, for which four scenarios were developed of how society might be in 2055. These scenarios are: ‘Perpetual Motion’, ‘Urban Colonies’, ‘Tribal Trading’ and ‘Good Intentions’, each having its own implications for the future of transport. This paper considers the implications of each scenario, and of the underlying/overriding issues of peak oil and climate change, for the possible role and significance of rail transport in meeting our transport needs in the mid-21st century and beyond.     

Forecasting upon a star: Forecasting or wishful thinking?

The purpose of this paper was to perform a detailed analysis of the challenges faced while developing and using econometric models to forecast future transportation demand. To this end, a comparative analysis of the state of practice and state of the art was undertaken on a concrete example – Viracopos Airport in Brazil. A review of relevant technical and scientific literature identified a number of approaches and each representative example was synthesized into a specification “template”. We then compared the performance of each “template” with the observed demand, through an intra-series forecast. A general finding was that econometric model specifications proved to be somewhat homogenous and simpler in nature, with results indicating a relatively small difference in fit and forecast capability across models. Even with the elimination of what is typically considered the main culprit for deviations – the forecast uncertainty of the explanatory (input) variables – the forecast is still subject to sizeable deviation. To address this issue, we proposed developing some sanity check indexes, particularly relevant for long-term forecasts. We conclude that the challenges faced at the Viracopos Airport Concession were far from econometric ones, that the success of the demand forecast and the concession itself required more than a well estimated econometric model. Finally, regarding investment obligations within the concession agreement, we strongly recommend making them conditional to meeting demand milestones, given the inherent unpredictability in forecasts.     

Pets at ecotourism destinations: cute mascot or trojan horse?

Alien species are threatening native fauna worldwide and cats and dogs have well-documented deleterious impacts on wildlife. Ecotourism operators often live and raise their pets in natural reserves. Here we discuss how pets add to the list of potential negative impacts of ecotourism and provide recommendations to control or attenuate such impacts.     

Congestion pricing's conditional promise: promotion of accessibility or mobility?

The derived nature of transportation demand implies that enhancement of mobility per se is not a reasonable goal for transportation policy; instead, improved mobility is desired to the extent that it furthers accessibility—a goal that can be achieved through a variety of measures. The paper uses the mobility–accessibility distinction to distinguish different implementations of congestion pricing. A mobility-based congestion pricing promises to alleviate congestion but threatens to deteriorate from overall regional accessibility as it accelerates metropolitan deconcentration. In contrast, accessibility-based congestion pricing avoids acceleration of sprawl by incorporating policies to ensure that drivers tolled off roads are replaced with residents and travelers arriving at previously congested areas by other means.     

Managing the Cedars of Lebanon: Botanical Gardens or Living Forests?

Lebanon receives about 750,000 visitors a year, attracted by a diverse tourism portfolio with an increasing emphasis on cultural and ecotourism. It was once covered in cedar forest, with the great trees still acting both as metaphor and brand for the country. Today, there are several areas where cedars may still be seen, the most important being the Chouf Reserve, in the Jabal el Barouk mountains near the Bekaa valley, and the famous cedars of the Quadisha valley in north Lebanon (a World Heritage Site since 1998), near the town of Becharre, the centre of Lebanon's ski industry. This paper examines the management of the isolated grove of giant cedar trees at Becharre which has become a sterile botanical garden, and compares it with the living forests of the Chouf Cedar Reserve. The fundamental question being asked here is whether or not World Heritage designation of this natural resource has had conservation benefits, and if such benefits outweigh diminished experience quality for visitors.     

Children's school commuting in the Netherlands: Does it matter how urban form is incorporated in mode choice models?

Walking and cycling to school is environmentally sustainable and increases children's physical activity. Although it is known that the built environment influences children's travel behavior, there is scant knowledge of how urban form along children's commuting routes affects walking and cycling separately, or of how to incorporate urban form exposures in transport mode choice models. This research investigated (a) the associations between children's transport mode choice and urban form correlates en route, and (b) the consequences of different urban form operationalizations (i.e., individual variables, composite measure, and principal components [PCs]). Global Positioning System devices were used to track 623 trips to and from school made by Dutch children aged 6–11 years. Urban form exposures were derived with geographic information systems, and their relationships with mode choice were tested with mixed multinomial logit models in a cross-sectional research design. Differences between the number of associated urban form variables, their magnitudes, and their significance levels were found for both walking and cycling, independent of the operationalization. Urban form was most influential for walking, whereas distance-related effects were absorbed when modeled as PCs. The highest model fit was achieved through PCs; the composite measure resulted in the lowest fit. To maximize the effectiveness of planning and health interventions, walking and cycling must be targeted separately. Policymakers should avoid “one-fits-all policies,” which are deemed to be inefficient. Because urban form affects model interpretation and fit, careful attention should be paid to how urban form is modeled, and sensitivity analyses should be performed.     

Economic crisis and tourism competitiveness in Spain: permanent effects or transitory shocks?

This paper considers the influence of business cycles and economic crises on Spain's tourism competitiveness. This competitiveness is measured by its share in world tourism. Analysing the presence of unit roots in the market share series from 1958 to 2010, the permanent effects of economic crises on competitiveness are evaluated. The evidence from standard linear unit root tests indicates that crises on Spanish market shares are highly persistent. When we account for endogenously determined structural breaks, we obtain greater support for stationarity, but breakpoints are identified with major economic crises. Therefore the main conclusion obtained is that the effects of the economic shocks are not neutral on competitiveness, with the negative effects being more persistent in highly intensive crises. These crises reinforce a natural downward trend of the Spanish world tourism market share caused by the natural emergence of new competing destinations and by the maturity of the Spain's principal tourism product.     

Competition or complementarity in Dutch inland port development: A case of overproximity?

The port economics literature is extensive, but does not address well the economic effects of inland ports development. This paper explores the extent to which spatial proximity of inland ports vis-a-vis each other influences agglomeration externalities. Spatially lagged regression models are employed to analyse whether spatial dependence between proximate inland ports can be observed or, alternatively, whether the density of the inland port network in the Netherlands is leading to diseconomies of scale because of overproximity. The conclusions indicate that especially in the context of the dense fluvial network of the Netherlands inland ports development involves much competition among inland ports; being proximite to strong neighbouring inland ports is not necessarily beneficial to the growth prospects of an inland port. This indication of overproximity highlights a need for reflection on the possibility of an integrated and coordinated regional governance approach towards inland port development in the Netherlands and North-West Europe. The relationship between inland ports and regional development is obviously present, but ambiguous since it involves a multiplicity of interactions among a diversity of actors.     

Low cost carriers in Southeast Asia: How does ticket price change the way passengers make their airline selection?

The purpose of this paper is to develop an extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) model to examine how Southeast Asian passengers' internal behavioral factors and external stimuli affect their buying intention and actual purchase of Low-Cost Carrier (LCC) tickets. In addition, how ticket price changes the behaviors of those factors in that model is also examined. A survey of 781 passengers was conducted in two major airports in Thailand to test the hypotheses. The results indicate the important role of passengers' attitudes, social norms, and perceived behavioral control in LCC passenger's buying behavior. More importantly, the presence of the ticket price does change how other factors predict the behavioral intention and actual use of LCCs in Southeast Asia.     

Industry convergence in rural tourism development: a China-featured term or a new initiative?

ABSTRACT

Industry convergence is a popular term that has been widely referenced in the context of rural tourism development in China. All levels of government (local, regional, national) in China have repeatedly addressed the significance of industry convergence in their tourism plans and related policies. Despite its popularity, limited studies at present have explored this concept in-depth. Using Huai’an as a case, this study applied a path analysis and reported the industry convergence process in a destination. The findings of this study can provide both theoretical and practical implications that are useful for tourism planners and policy makers.     

Community Based Tourism in Namibia: ‘Reality Show’ or ‘Window Dressing’?

Since the 1970s, the African continent has experienced exponential growth in tourism, where growth in numbers of visitors has not necessarily meant economic, social or environmental benefits for the host community. A review of the literature concerning tourism development and its effects on local communities forms the basis for the investigation of the reasons behind community based tourism (CBT) being identified as a tool for development in Namibia. An assessment of the planning and implementation phases of the CBT strategy enables consideration on the role played by international and national governments and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in laying down policies and providing proactive support for CBT related projects. This paper presents the results of an ongoing empirical research conducted since 2003 in the Kunene region of Namibia, which is an important part of the overall Namibian tourism destination, with world-renowned resources such as Etosha National Park, the Himba culture, Epupa Falls, the desert-adapted elephant and the rhino, to name just a few. By attempting an overall assessment of the Namibian current CBT situation, a set of considerations are offered with regard to its practicalities and in terms of benefits, problems and future outlooks for this sector.     

Enhancing equitable service level: Which can address better,dockless or dock-based Bikeshare systems?

Dockless bikeshare systems show potential for replacing traditional dock-based systems, primarily by offering greater flexibility for bike returns. However, many cities in the US currently regulate the maximum number of bikes a dockless system can deploy due to bicycle management issues. Despite inventory management challenges, dockless systems offer two main advantages over dock-based systems: a lower (sometimes zero) membership fee, and being free-range (or, at least free-range within designated service areas). Moreover, these two advantages may help to solve existing access barriers for disadvantaged populations. To date, much of the research on micro-mobility options has focused on addressing equity issues in dock-based systems. We have limited knowledge of the extent to which dockless systems can help mitigate barriers to bikeshare for disadvantaged populations. Using San Francisco as a case study, because the city has both dock-based and dockless systems running concurrently, we quantify bikeshare service levels for communities of concern (CoCs) by analyzing the spatial distribution of service areas, available bikes and bike idle times, trip data, and rebalancing among dock-based and dockless systems. We find that dockless systems can provide greater availability of bikes for CoCs than for other communities, attracting more trip demand in these communities because of a larger service area and frequent bike rebalancing practices. More importantly, we notice that the existence of electric bikes helps mitigate the bikeshare usage gap between CoCs and other tracts. Our results provide policy insights to local municipalities on how to properly regulate dockless bikeshare systems to improve equity.     

Interrelations between travel mode choice and trip distance: trends in Germany 1976–2002

In recent decades, trends in travel behaviour have been characterised by increasing trip distances and a modal shift towards the private car. This paper reports findings from longitudinal analyses of the German nation-wide travel survey KONTIV for the period 1976–2002. It focuses on travel mode choice, subdivided by distance categories, and also takes car availability and city size into account. In addition, trends in car availability itself are examined by city size categories. The results indicate that even within the same distance categories car use has considerably increased. In some cases bicycle use has increased as well. Gains in the use of the private car are mainly at the expense of trips on foot and by public transport. Accordingly, the shift in modal split towards the car is not (only) caused by increasing trip distances but took place even within distance classes. Once car availability is taken into account, the modal shifts appear to be considerably weaker. This suggests that once car availability is held constant the decision rationales of mode choice for a certain trip distance have remained relatively stable. The increase in motorisation over the study period was considerably weaker in large cities than in small towns, although the cities started from a lower level in the 1970s. Thus, the motorisation divide between cities on the one hand, and suburban and rural areas on the other hand has become ever wider. For travel mode choice, the picture is similar. What is more, the results suggest that even car owners are more inclined to walk a given distance in the cities than in small towns, even more so if they live in a central urban area. The built environment, thus, appears to have a strong impact on whether an available car is used or not.     

物流:行业?产业?

目前国内外物流正在迅速发展,但在我国的产业目录中却没有列入物流这个产业,国家预算及税务规划、国家产业投资、建设与发展规划的编制、政府机构的设置及部门和行业管理权限的划分、产业发展政策的制定、产业法制建设等等都与物流产业无关;国家统计局的官方统计口径也从来不把物流作为一个产业来对待,从国家到地方,再到企业,找不到关于物流的完整统计资料,国家、企业和社会都没有办法计算物流成本。那么,物流究竟算不算一个产业?     

Dive Tourism and Local Communities: Active Participation or Subject to Impacts? Case Studies from Malaysia

Dive tourism impacts were examined in three Malaysian islands: Perhentian (backpackers), Redang (package tourism) and Mabul (upmarket dive tourism). Qualitative local participation approaches were applied to investigate whether host communities were merely reactive to dive tourism's impacts. Dive tourism affected many aspects of community life. Besides physical/ environmental impacts (new infrastructure), research found varied economic impacts including employment/business opportunities and differing economic linkages. Participation varied between locations, and obstacles to increased participation were revealed. Mainly negative socio‐cultural impacts were observed with minimal participation in cultural productions (handicrafts, performances). However, positive educational impacts emerged, especially environmental awareness and English language acquisition. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.