Understanding the evolution of world business cycles

This paper studies the changes in world business cycles during the period 1960–2003. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common and country-specific components in the main macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) of the G-7 countries. We then quantify the relative importance of the common and country components in explaining comovement in each observable aggregate over three distinct time periods: the Bretton Woods (BW) period (1960:1–1972:2), the period of common shocks (1972:3–1986:2), and the globalization period (1986:3–2003:4). The results indicate that the common (G-7) factor explains, on average, a larger fraction of output, consumption and investment volatility in the globalization period than it does in the BW period.     

加强宏观调控深化金融改革

本文认为,我国去年以来的宏观调控取得了一定的成绩,但不能估计过高,一些深层次的问题并没有完全解决,还要继续努力,特别是要注意转变经济增长方式,真正提高经济增长的效益。宏观调控一定要总体考虑社会发展和经济发展之间的关系,中央和地方的关系,宏观和微观的关系,当前和长远的关系,农业、工业、服务业之间的关系,政府与企业和银行的关系等。这些都是影响宏观经济的大问题,都是要周密考虑的。文章指出,金融是现代经济的核心,而银行是金融的心脏,目前商业银行存在的效率低、资本充足率低,不良资产率高,内部管理、风险控制机制不健全,治理制度不完善,金融创新不足等问题,必须通过改革加以解决。     

Identification and analysis of industry cycles

Ever since Schumpeter first identified industry cycles as the characteristic form of capitalist development, with upturns creating opportunities for profit and downturns providing scope for restructuring, the topic has attracted occasional interest by business researchers - but never the sustained interest that the subject warrants. Most studies in cyclical dynamics focus on the macroeconomy, and largely deal with forecasting. This article focuses by contrast on cyclical dynamics at the sectoral level, where cyclical upturns and downturns create essential and unavoidable strategic issues for management. This introductory paper discusses the fundamentals of industry cycle identification, and analysis in both the time domain and the frequency domain with a view to drawing strategic insights. The study illustrates these approaches with industrial data from the global semiconductor industry. The argument is that the study of cyclical industrial dynamics provides the foundation for wider studies of innovation and technology management.     

Personal interviews in cultural consumer research – post‐structuralist challenges

This paper takes a post‐structuralist perspective on consumer research and discusses the role of personal interviews in cultural analysis. It problematizes the use of the phenomenological interview in cultural consumer research, arguing that the underlying research paradigm, existential‐phenomenology, is not necessarily adequate for cultural analysis because it focuses attention primarily on the individual and the first‐person experience. Such a paradigmatic perspective is problematic because it tends to sustain a view of human agency that is highly individualistic and thus fails to account for the cultural complexity of social action. Overall, the paper contributes to the further development of the post‐structuralist approaches to postmodern marketing thought. Post‐structuralist ideas and assumptions challenge the central principles of modern marketing and consumer research in many ways and it is the aim of the paper to contribute to a better understanding of the methodological implications that they entail.     

Eating their cake and everyone else's cake, too: Resources as the main ingredient to workplace bullying

This article examines workplace bullying from a personal resources perspective. As workplace bullying emerges in unsupportive and stressful work environments, the threat of personal resource loss triggers the low cost, high reward resource-seeking behaviors that are typically reported as indicative of bullies in the workplace bullying research. Herein, we propose that these resource-seeking bullying behaviors allow bullies to create reinforcing resource gain cycles for them, but also create reinforcing resource loss cycles for targets and bystanders of bullying. As a potential remedy, we discuss recommendations for organizations to reduce the occurrence of workplace bullying.     

二元对立视角下的《屋顶丽人》

《屋顶丽人》是多丽丝?莱辛的短篇小说之一,多丽丝?莱辛通过对人物的细致刻画,突出了人与人之间的矛盾和冲突,本文试图从结构主义二元对立的角度进行解读。     

BRICS: How important is the exchange rate pass-through?

This paper analyses the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into domestic consumer prices in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries from mid-1990s onwards by using three different econometric approaches (i.e., the single equation approach, the VAR approach and the time-varying parameter approach). It is also studied the role of macroeconomic determinants in ERPT. Our results suggest that (a) ERPT is higher for the emerging markets with mostly floating exchange rates (Brazil, Russia and South Africa) than for the other BRICS countries; (b) exchange rate explains, on average, around the 40% of the price variance for Brazil, Russia and South Africa; and (c) inflation volatility, exchange rate volatility and openness seem to be the key macroeconomic determinants in BRICS countries.     

宏观经济变量冲击与我国银行间市场风险传染

虽然宏观经济变量对我国银行同业拆借市场的影响比较小,但随着时间的推移,风险传染规模呈扩大趋势,同时银行风险的溢出效应比较明显。本文模型结构和模拟结果显示的四个特征表明,监管当局在防范我国银行风险传染方面不仅要关注宏观经济变量冲击的负面影响和银行在同业拆借市场中的具体交易情况,还需要关注银行风险的传染源和风险溢出效应。监管机构可以通过建立银行偿付水平对应于不同宏观经济变量的敏感系数,时刻关注宏观经济的异常波动对银行偿付能力的影响。     

金融开放度与宏观经济波动——基于发达国家与发展中国家和地区的实证研究

本文搜集了1990年—2009年52个不同发展程度国家和地区的数据,对金融开放影响宏观经济波动的驱动机制进行了实证研究。金融开放程度虽然降低了产出波动的幅度,却增加了总消费、收入和相对消费的波动幅度,但是在引入人力资本存量、本国金融发展水平和公共治理环境制度因素与金融开放度的交叉项后,金融开放明显降低了一国的宏观经济波动程度。因此,只有在本国良好的制度水平和健康的金融体系环境下,金融开放才可以降低对宏观经济波动造成的风险。     

金融危机下我国宏观调控：经验、问题与完善路径

2007年底金融危机以来,我国宏观调控经历了＂双防＂政策、＂一保一控＂、＂一防三保＂三个阶段。这次宏观调控的经验表明：调控要快、重、准、实;调控手段要以经济手段为主并牢牢牵住市场这个＂牛鼻子＂;积极关注价格波动。金融危机以来我国宏观调控显示出经济社会协调发展、经济总量与经济结构并重和各项体制改革稳步推进等特征。随着金融危机的深化,针对我国经济运行中出现外需与内需失衡、政府投资与民间投资失衡、市场结构与产业结构失衡、现实紧缩与通胀预期矛盾等问题,我国宏观调控要沿着管理体系、政策体系与目标体系三条路径进行完善。     

宏观经济因素对中国海外直接投资促动效应的理论与实证分析

中国特殊的宏观经济条件使得企业对外直接投资具有独特的发展模式和投资动因。本文运用1987~2010年间相关数据对宏观经济因素对中国海外直接投资的促动效应进行实证。结果显示:只有外汇储备与我国对外直接投资正相关,而技术能力、贸易顺差、利率水平、外汇汇率与中国对外直接投资是负相关,本文对此原因进行了深入分析并提出了改进中国对外直接投资的一些建议。     

分税制与中国宏观经济波动--基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的实证分析

本文在新凯恩斯主义框架下,从中国经济实际出发,充分考虑国税及地税政策,构建了我国分税制下的DSGE模型,研究了宏观经济波动的税收政策效应。研究发现：国税政策的正向冲击短期内会挤出家庭劳动、降低资产收益率,对经济增长有一定的负效应;地税政策的正向冲击效应恰好相反,短期内具有促进就业、刺激经济增长和抑制通货膨胀的作用;宏观经济对地税政策冲击更为敏感,中国更应该发挥地税政策调控宏观经济运行的作用。本文的研究为新一轮税制改革提供了方向正确性的理论佐证及具体操作的量化参考。