Estimating the impact of airport privatization on airline demand: A regression-based event study

This paper develops an empirical model of passenger demand for routes of airports subject to either imminent or recent privatization. We investigate whether the privatization process produces a sequential impact over traffic. By employing a regression-based event methodology and controlling for fixed effects, price endogeneity and sample selection, we perform an econometric analysis of pre-privatization and post-privatization dynamic patterns of demand to infer the demand consequences of the major change in airport governance. We examine recent Brazilian airport privatization experience as a case. The main results suggest that privatization produced an overall increase in airline demand and that the airport notably recognized with the greatest demand potential and with the largest market penetration of a fast-growing low cost newcomer had the highest estimated ceteris paribus effect of privatization on demand.     

The importance of concession revenues in the privatization of airports

We investigate the tradeoff between the airport’s concession and aeronautical revenues—two complementary services. Increasing the frequency of flights may result with congestion which could stimulate demand for concessions, but may also harm the demand for flights. When passengers have a low valuation for the concession good, the opportunity for concession revenue is small and the airport focuses its revenue on the aeronautical (i.e., landing) fees. With a sufficiently large valuation for concession goods, the airport may lower the aeronautical charges to stimulate greater flight frequency in order to lower airfares thereby attracting more passengers ultimately to increase concessions revenues. It is in the latter case where we observe minimal loss of aeronautical welfare when airports are privatized. Thus, our research could help guide decision makers in the airport privatization process. Namely, we find that privatization is not recommended unless the potential for concession revenues is sufficiently large.     

RISK assessment in airport maintenance runway condition using MCDA-C

This paper proposed the initial development of a multicriteria methodology for a runway maintenance monitoring using risk perception at airports with the MCDA-C methodology. To support morphological structuring and semantic judgments eight specialists in airport maintenance and operations were interviewed and the model was built based in their perceptions and deep technical knowledge on the subject. We found that the 7 most representative criteria were able to deal with approximately 80% of the perceived risk by the experts, indicating that a considerable part of the resources of the Brazilian airport infrastructure operations could be being redirected towards a more rational application. Finally, we applied the method in a real scenario situation by analyzing real data from the 29 the busiest Brazilian airports. Data showed objectively that 18 airports presented scores that clearly indicated being in a favorable (safer) or unfavorable (risky) condition regarding the criteria analyzed, guiding where the state can spend the resources with the best benefit.     

Dealing with demand forecasting games in transport privatization

Privatization has increased the number of players in the decision-making process for major transport investment decisions. The main argument of this paper is that this fragmentation is creating opportunities for strategic decision-making by each actor and that this is particularly obvious in the context of demand forecasting. This paper explores some of the specific causes and consequences of this new situation, including the perverse incentives, linked to the diversity of the objectives across the actors and to the risk allocation induced by the regulatory regime. It illustrates the issues and possible solutions from a wide range of modal and country experiences. In particular, it discusses the role of the newly independent sector regulators in reconciling these diverse goals and their limitations in view of the major information asymmetries problems they face.     

Negotiate-arbitrate regulation of airport services: Twenty years of experience in Australia

Negotiate-arbitrate regulation has played a role in the economic regulation of airports in Australia since the introduction of a national access regime in 1995. Over a twenty year period there have been three cases where negotiate-arbitrate regulation (NAR) has been applied to airport services, two cases where a decision has been made to not apply negotiate-arbitrate regulation to services provided and a case where an airline has sought to apply NAR and then withdrawn its application. The experience of the application of NAR to airport services is examined against a background discussion on issues associated with countervailing power in airport services. Based on the experience, some observations are made which reflect advantages and disadvantages of the application of NAR to airport services. NAR has provided a targeted approach to economic regulation of airport services in Australia, involving negotiated outcomes and limited intrusion into the aviation markets.     

Management style and airport performance in Brazil

The intention to privatize Brazilian public enterprises dates from 1990. As with other enterprises, a board was appointed at the Brazilian Airport Infrastructure Enterprise to prepare it for privatization. Although the enterprise remains public, there are clear signs of substantial changes in the airports it manages. This study uses data envelopment analysis techniques to investigate the impacts of changes in managerial style on airport performance between 1998 and 2001. Despite a decline in operational performance, financial performance improved.     

Effect of concentration in airline market on Spanish airport technical efficiency

This paper tries to measure the effect of airline market concentration on airport technical efficiency. With this aim, a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) is applied, estimating with a one-step procedure technical efficiency and the effect of airlines' market power on that efficiency. Results suggest that when airports are lowly concentrated increasing concentration reduces such inefficiencies. However, this effect practically disappears when airports are highly concentrated. Additionally, the government's policies to improve airports' performance seems to have a positive effect in the short run.     

Mutual influence across routes using a common airport: The case of the domestic market in Japan

This paper empirically investigates the mutual influence of traffic volumes across routes serving the same airport. Regression analysis using the data on Japan's domestic air transport market reveals that an increase in passengers on a given route has a positive effect on the number of passengers on other routes that share an endpoint airport with the given route. This result implies that a change in policy for an airport is likely to influence routes that do not serve that airport as well as the routes that do.     

Pro-competition rules in airport privatization: International experience and the Brazilian case

This article aims to demonstrate the importance of establishing pro-competition rules in the concession of multiple airports to private companies by describing the recent Brazilian experience. More specifically, it addresses: (i) how the economic literature deals with potential competition among different airports, and how this competition was dealt with in the concession programs of Australia, Mexico and the United Kingdom; and (ii) Brazil's recent experience with airport concessions, where international benchmarking led to cross-ownership restrictions. As a conclusion, this paper defends that governments should design regulatory restrictions that account for the existence of competition among airports. Nevertheless, these restrictions must be carefully planned and designed to achieve their goals.     

Financial distress,survival network design strategies,and airline pricing: An event study of a merger between a bankrupt FSC and an LCC in Brazil

This paper develops an event study to investigate the airfare effects of the bankruptcy of a financially distressed full-service carrier (FSC) and its subsequent acquisition by a low-cost carrier (LCC) in Brazil. We account for the distressed carrier's survival network design strategies (SNDS) pursued during its reorganization—a suspected source of sample selection bias. Additionally, as rivals' pricing could be aimed at driving the distressed/bankrupt carrier out of the market, we treat the carrier's distress as endogenously determined with it. Our results do not uncover any survival pricing behavior stemming from SNDS, but reveal fiercer price competition from rivals in periods preceding both the distressed carrier's bankruptcy filing and acquisition. We also find evidence of enduring price competitiveness in the long run of the acquisition event, shedding light on the potential facilitating role played by bankruptcy protection regulations in keeping and sustaining market contestability after the bankruptcy-filing period.     

A decision framework for successful private participation in the airport sector

As private participation in public airports becomes a global trend, there are a number of concerns and debates over the conflicting interests of the private and public sectors. For instance, the private sector's interest in maximizing profits often opposes the public sector's interest in protecting the public interest and social welfare. In this paper, we reframe the conflict in terms of principal-agent theory, and inform policymakers to understand public-private management problems in a broader context. Firstly, we demonstrate how various ownership and governance structures shape the private participation based on (1) ownership-type, (2) mode of ownership shift, and (3) ex-post government control. Secondly, we then highlight that this process should be context-based, and examine the recent case of Incheon International Airport (IIA) in South Korea to illustrate the importance of contextual factors. Lastly, we provide comprehensive recommendations to policymakers involved in bringing private partners into the airport sector, which include setting a clear agenda, exercising a reasonable level of control, understanding the sharing of risk and responsibility under different structures, and assessing technical, economic and political factors that may affect the policy outcome.     

Testing the differentiated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air travel demand considering social inclusion

The economic downturn and the air travel crisis triggered by the recent coronavirus pandemic pose a substantial threat to the new consumer class of many emerging economies. In Brazil, considerable improvements in social inclusion have fostered the emergence of hundreds of thousands of first-time fliers over the past decades. We apply a two-step regression methodology in which the first step consists of identifying air transport markets characterized by greater social inclusion, using indicators of the local economies’ income distribution, credit availability, and access to the Internet. In the second step, we inspect the drivers of the plunge in air travel demand since the pandemic began, differentiating markets by their predicted social inclusion intensity. After controlling for potential endogeneity stemming from the spread of COVID-19 through air travel, our results suggest that short and low-density routes are among the most impacted airline markets and that business-oriented routes are more impacted than leisure ones. Finally, we estimate that a market with 1% higher social inclusion is associated with a 0.153%–0.166% more pronounced decline in demand during the pandemic. Therefore, markets that have benefited from greater social inclusion in the country may be the most vulnerable to the current crisis.     

Passengers' airport choice and airports' catchment area analysis in cross-border Upper Adriatic multi-airport region

Although much research has been performed on passengers' origin airport choice, there is little research on airports' catchment area size and even less on airports' catchment areas in cross-border regions. This paper addresses passengers' airport choice and analyzes airports' catchment area size and its homogeneity in the Upper Adriatic region. Using the results of passengers' survey at three regional airports (Ljubljana Jože Pučnik Airport (LJU), Venice Marco Polo Airport (VCE) and Trieste Pietro Savorgnan di Brazza Airport (TRS)) we have estimated the airports' catchment areas and airports market shares therein using multinomial logit (MNL) model structure. To additionally explore the passengers' airport choice behavior considering the different sensitivity across travellers to regional, demographic and airports attributes and account for preference heterogeneity in airport choice a mixed logit model was used. The results indicated that the three airports have relatively small core catchment areas and that the market share rapidly decreases with the increasing access time to airport. Partially, the results reinforced earlier findings showing that access time to airport is the most important determinant in airport choice for all segments (business/leisure and cross-border/domestic), however the sensitivity to access time is more pronounced in business and domestic group. Additionally, the results indicated pronounced loyalty to domestic airports and generally low importance of ticket prices, and show that in market conditions where all airports in the region have a low-cost carrier (LCC) the effect of LCC on airport choice is limited. Finally, the results indicated that the borders might have an influence on airport choice and that overall, in the cross-border regions the passengers’ airport choice process is even more complex than in non cross-border regions.     

Slot auction in an airport network with demand uncertainty

This paper investigates the effectiveness of airport slot auction by developing a two-stage model, which distributes slots among competing airlines using an ascending-bid multi-unit auction. Airlines assign different values to slots at peak and off-peak periods, and each carrier has its private (subjective) forecast of future demand. Conditional on the slots available to them, airlines compete in frequency, fare, and aircraft size over a congested airport network. The market outcome under such a scheme is benchmarked to those under an ex ante allocation and an ex post allocation by a social planner. Comparison results suggest that the auction-based scheme is inferior to the other two schemes when there is little fluctuation in demand, whereas the auction-based system is more effective when there is substantial demand uncertainty. Auctioning some grandfathered slots can improve social welfare but the marginal effect may diminish quickly.     

Determinants of daily fluctuations in air passenger volumes. The effect of events and holidays on Milan Malpensa airport

Air traffic flows show large seasonal variability, but arrivals and departures may also be significantly influenced by specific events which generate peaks, which generate peaks rising above baseline traffic. While seasonal variations of air flows are well studied in literature, the daily variations and their causes are seldom analysed and quantified. The paper aims at filling this gap by exploring and quantifying the effect of holidays and events (conferences, trade fairs, sport events) in terms of passenger daily fluctuations.We identified the elements affecting these variations and searched for correlations with daily demand fluctuations using an OLS econometric model applied to Milan Malpensa airport. The model allows one to reproduce the observed daily traffic, identifying the baseline component of traffic (depending on the calendar) and the additional effect ascribable to holidays and occasional events.Results show which types of events generate a visible traffic increase. The effect of some of them can be very significant indeed. The largest international design and fashion shows taking place in Milan generate up to more than 20% extra passenger traffic compared to the normal baseline traffic. In addition, the analysis showed that their effect is not limited to the event days, but impacted on the surrounding days as well. Holidays also influence the patterns of demand, creating additional traffic on certain days and more pronounced peaks, which also differ according to seasons.     

The effects of global alliances on international flight frequencies: Some evidence from Italy

We collect half-yearly data on nonstop flight frequencies offered by carriers on routes originating from Italian regions to European countries in the period 1998–2010. We find that, as the share of flights belonging to global alliances increases, the number of flights offered by airlines simultaneously expands, especially in the case of full-service carriers. Moreover, there is also evidence that the number of global alliances has a positive impact on flight supply.     

Domestic air passenger traffic and economic growth in China: Evidence from heterogeneous panel models

This paper applies recent panel methodology to examine the short-run dynamics, the long-run equilibrium relationships and the Granger causal relationship between economic growth and domestic air passenger traffic. It is based on the quarterly panel data of 29 provinces in China from the period of 2006Q1 to 2012Q3. Tests for panel unit roots, cointegration in heterogeneous panels and panel causality are employed in a bi-variate panel vector error correction model (PVECM), which is estimated by the system generalized moment method (SYS-GMM). The results show evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and domestic air passenger traffic. Specifically, 1% increase in the air passenger traffic is found to lead to an increase of 0.943% in real gross domestic product (GDP). A long-run and strong bi-directional Granger causal relationship is found between these two series. It is also found that there is a short-run uni-directional Granger causality running from the domestic air passenger traffic to the economic growth.     

Clustered airline flight scheduling: Evidence from airline deregulation in Korea

This paper explores the impacts of competition level on airline scheduling in the Korean domestic short-haul routes where a hub-and-spoke system is not the optimal air transport network strategy. The empirical findings using the Korean airline panel data for the period 2006–2010 suggest that competition leads to less differentiated departure flight times as expected from spatial competition theory. Unlike the previous study on the U.S airline industry, the degree of this tendency for less differentiation differs across the type of routes: the Jeju island routes (leisure type) and the inland routes (business type), in the deregulated period. Following the May 2008 Deregulation Act we find an increasingly clustered pattern of airline scheduling in the Jeju island routes where there have been competitive pressures associated with new low cost entrants. This recent evidence would imply that airline carriers strategically schedule departure flight times and allocate flights between routes as competition increases in the deregulated period.     

Economies of traffic density and scale in the integrated air cargo industry: The cost structures of FedEx Express and UPS Airlines

This paper examines the cost structures of the leading integrated air cargo carriers, FedEx Express and UPS Airlines. A total cost model is estimated for the two carriers using quarterly data on domestic operations and costs over a nine-year period (2003–2011). The estimated model indicates that the integrated industry exhibits increasing returns to traffic density and constant returns to scale. Accounting for carrier-specific differences in cost structure and network size, FedEx Express is found to be more cost-efficient than UPS Airlines. Looking at the carriers individually, UPS Airlines exhibits substantial economies of traffic density and constant returns to scale while FedEx Express' cost structure is characterized by weak economies of density and constant returns to scale. The combined effect of returns to density and returns to scale on the cost structures of integrated carriers is captured by economies of size. Both FedEx Express and UPS Airlines exhibit economies of size, indicating that carriers in the integrated industry can be more cost efficient by making appropriate adjustments to their network size as their output grows. Moreover, the relative cost-efficiencies of the carriers are reversed when their network-size differences are not controlled.     

Applying a New Model of Customer Value on International Air Passengers' Market in Taiwan

This paper proposes a new model to discover customer value of air passengers by using data mining technologies. The results of this research can be applied in database marketing systems. The procedure applies See5/C5.0 (RuleQuest Research Pty Ltd, St Ives, New South Wales, Australia) decision tree; transaction records; Frequency, Price Discount, Destination and No‐Show (FPDN model; Recency, Frequency and Monetary model based) model variables; and socio‐economic variables to create decision rules for airline business. An empirical case of air passengers' market in Taiwan is implemented for the identification of this procedure and the Frequency, Price Discount, Destination and No‐Show model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.