我国储蓄投资相关性的实证分析

本文利用我国1978-2004年期间的样本数据,对我国储蓄与投资的相关性进行了实证研究.VEC模型的结果显示我国居民储蓄、政府储蓄与投资之间存在长期正相关的均衡关系和显著的短期动态调整机制.同时,Granger因果检验说明了我国居民储蓄与投资之间可能存在双向Granger因果关系,而政府储蓄虽然对投资影响较大,但它与投资之间并不存在Granger因果关系.资本形成的真正来源最终还是要依赖于居民储蓄.     

我国储蓄投资相关性的实证分析

本文利用我国1978——2004年期间的样本数据，对我国储蓄与投资的相关性进行了实证研究。VEC模型的结果显示我国居民储蓄、政府储蓄与投资之间存在长期正相关的均衡关系和显著的短期动态调整机制。同时，Granger因果检验说明了我国居民储蓄与投资之间可能存在双向Granger因果关系，而政府储蓄虽然对投资影响较大，但它与投资之间并不存在Granger因果关系。资本形成的真正来源最终还是要依赖于居民储蓄。     

我国城镇居民储蓄存款的实证分析

影响居民储蓄的影响因素有很多,文章对我国城镇居民的储蓄情况建立实证模型,进行多元线性回归分析来探讨影响储蓄的主要因素。     

甘肃居民储蓄影响因素分析

本文对甘肃省居民储蓄的影响因素作了定性分析,从居民储蓄周期性增长趋势与居民储蓄影响因素方面,运用＂趋势百分比法＂＂环比法＂＂逐步回归法＂,对影响我省居民储蓄因素进行了定量分析。     

我国居民储蓄影响因素的实证分析

改革开放以来,我国经济快速发展,但近年来我国居民消费需求却始终不振,相应的,我国居民的储蓄不断攀升,这严重制约了我国经济的发展。文章运用2002~2014年的有关居民储蓄的数据进行了实证分析,对影响居民储蓄的因素进行了探究,并针对影响因素给出相应的建议来降低我国的高储蓄率。     

中国储投缺口结构对经常项目顺差的影响

本文运用描述性统计、敏感性分析及因果关系检验方法,以1982～2009年的相关数据为样本,分析居民、企业、政府三个部门储蓄投资缺口结构与经常项目顺差的关系及部门储投缺口的影响因素。研究发现:经常项目顺差由高投资率背后更高的储蓄率造成,居民部门储投缺口贡献度最大,企业部门和政府部门储投缺口大部分年度为负;企业部门对经常项目变动决定作用最大,政府部门对经常项目顺差贡献最稳定;居民部门储投缺口变化主要取决于储蓄变化,过高的边际储蓄倾向是居民高储蓄的原因;2005年后企业储投缺口扩大源于储蓄占GDP比增加和投资占GDP比减少,劳动力成本增长速度过低和投资效率下降分别是储蓄比增加和投资比下降的原因;"以存量支"式的投资特征导致了政府储投缺口的稳定性。     

人口结构、社会保障对广东省居民储蓄水平的影响

人口结构、社会保障关系到人们的储蓄与消费问题,本文将两者结合起来分析其对居民储蓄的影响,并运用广东省1990～2010年的数据对社会保障支出水平、老人赡养比、儿童抚养比与广东省居民储蓄进行验证。通过协整与误差修正模型研究发现:社会保障水平无论是在短期还是在长期都会对居民的储蓄水平产生影响,人口结构也是影响居民储蓄的一大因素,并在此基础上给出相应的建议。     

我国居民储蓄与股市联动效应及对策

文章通过对我国股市与居民储蓄相关性的实证剖析,论证了居民储蓄与股市价量的联动效应,解释了影响储蓄与股市联动效应的因素。探讨了合理分流储蓄、推动投资渠道多元化、加强监管、保持政策调控持续性等促进股市稳健发展的对策建议。     

我国居民储蓄函数的实证研究——基于1995—2007年季度数据的计量分析

长期以来,我国居民储蓄存款余额一直处于不断上升、加速增长的态势。但是2006年下半年以来,我国居民在金融机构的人民币储蓄存款的增幅却出现了下降趋势。进入2007年,增幅缩减速度加快。本文对1995年第一季度至2007年第一季度居民储蓄情况进行回归分析和实证研究,估测我国居民的储蓄函数,认为我国居民储蓄主要受收入影响,对利率的敏感性较差。股票市场的发展对储蓄分流有一定作用,但还不明显。这一结论表明我国居民储蓄具有较强的经济理性,基本符合中国经济发展的特点,但同时也说明了我国在利率市场化和资本市场建设上依旧任重道远。     

延迟退休视角下我国城镇居民预防性储蓄的异质性研究

本文综合居民消费习惯、可支配收入、实际利率、消费支出的不确定性、延迟退休等因素,运用预防性储蓄异质性理论构建动态面板模型,以我国31个省市2007-2014年的面板数据为基础,考察延迟退休政策对我国城镇居民预防性储蓄影响。研究结果表明,老年人口抚养比和消费支出不确定性的交叉项、城镇居民基本养老保障基金收入和消费支出不确定性的交叉项对消费支出有显著负影响,即延迟退休对我国城镇居民预防性储蓄有显著影响。建议通过建立完善养老保障体制、改善消费环境以及降低居民未来收入的不确定性等措施,降低居民预防性储蓄刺激消费。     

我国储蓄结构变化对外贸影响的实证分析

国民经济储蓄部门结构一般可以由居民储蓄、企业储蓄、政府储蓄来表示。本文采用协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验的方法对我国储蓄结构的变化与对外贸易的关系分别进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:出口、进口与三部门储蓄存在着长期的均衡关系,企业部门的储蓄是出口和进口增加的重要原因。保持对外贸易的平衡依赖于政府对各部门储蓄结构分布的合理引导。     

储蓄和消费：群体规范对自我建构的影响

储蓄和消费对国家经济的发展有着极大的影响，如果要改变中国蔓见有的低消费高储蓄的现状，必须从个人的储蓄消费行为着手，研究可能对个人的储蓄和消费行为产生影响的因素。文章研究了自我建构和群体规范的交互作用对人们储蓄和消费的影响，研究发现：相依自我在群体规范分别表现为消费和储蓄时，其消费意愿有着显著差异，而独立自我在群体规范分别表现为储蓄和消费时，消费意愿没有显著差异。研究探索了影响储蓄和消费行为的因素，丰富了自我建构和储蓄消费相关理论，对降低储蓄促进消费有着一定的指导意义。     

The savings trap and economic take-off

We develop a model of economic development in which cultureand technology interact to devermine savings, investment, andgrowth. Investment is assumed to involve intermediation or othercosts that may, in any period, result in either of two equilibriafor the savings rate. At the good equilibrium, aggregate savings,the savings rate, and growth are all higher than at the badequilibrium. Whether the country falls into this savings trapdepends on each individual's belief about the savings behaviorof others in the economy. Goverment policies that coordinatesavings and facilitate investment can influence whether thecountry escapes the trap.     

Overshooting adjustment to tariff liberalization

The article analyzes the dynamic effects of tariff liberalization on a small open economy. The primary focus is on nonmonotonic adjustment patterns of net lending such as overshooting or opposite short-and long run effects. When capital accumulation tilts wage income toward the future in the early transition periods, present generations perceive life-cycle type savings disincentives which create a transitory shortfall in savings. In the long run, wage profiles become flat again, and the savings deficiency vanishes. The transitory savings component may give rise to overshooting or opposite short- and long-run adjustment in the total stock of savings and net foreign assets.     

Personal savings,ethnicity and redistribution

The effects on personal savings of measures to equalise incomes are prominent in current policy debates. Both supporters and opponents of redistributive measures adopt the Keynesian position that greater income equality will itself reduce savings. However, not only income level affects household savings. Different ethnic groups have very different savings behaviour: surveys suggest that black households in the larger urban areas have a higher savings function than white households and a higher marginal propensity to save. Equalising incomes in South Africa implies shifting income to black households from white ones. In these circumstances redistributive measures could actually increase savings. These findings do not, however, point to specific measures to achieve that end or indicate how redistributive measures themselves could shift the savings functions of the various ethnic groups. Nor do they ensure that higher personal savings will translate efficiently into higher investment.     

Age Structure and the Personal Savings Rate in the United States, 1956-1995

Cointegration techniques are applied to time series data on the personal savings rate and the age structure of the population in the United States over the period 1956-1995. The personal savings rate is cointegrated with the ratios of minors and of retired persons to the working-age population and both of these ratios had a negative and significant impact on the personal savings rate. The results support the life-cycle hypothesis of savings.     

Housing price and household savings rates: evidence from China

This article investigates the effect of house prices on household savings rates in urban China employing the 2002 and 2007 data of the Chinese Households Income Project (CHIP). We find that the rapid appreciation of house prices cannot explain high Chinese households’ savings rates and the rising of Chinese savings rates. On the contrary, we find a negative relationship between house prices and household savings rates for home renters and homeowners. We do not find any evidence of ‘savings for housing purchase’ for young home renters when house prices increase. Their savings rates declined during housing market booms in recent 10?years. Savings rates of homeowners possessing multiple housing have decreased more because of ‘the pure housing wealth effects.’     

Access to savings and household welfare evidence from a household survey in The Gambia

In this study, we provide evidence on the impact of access to formal savings on household well‐being in The Gambia. Specifically, we study how access to formal savings can impact household outcomes such as total spending, ownership of durable assets, health spending, and education spending. Using a representative household survey and kernel ridge regression method, we find that household access to formal savings has a positive and statistically significant impact on all outcomes except health spending. Furthermore, we find that the largest effect size of access to savings is on education spending. However, the impact estimates on education and food expenditure are not very robust to a mild presence of hidden bias. Overall, we find a robust impact for total spending and asset ownership. Hence, increasing household access to formal savings can improve household well‐being in The Gambia.     

资产市场对居民储蓄率影响的国际比较——兼论中美储蓄率差异

本文构建了一个居民储蓄行为函数,选取13个国家1991～2007年的面板数据研究了居民储蓄率的五大决定因素——收入和经济增长、利率与价格、外部储蓄、人口结构与资本市场发展,重点考察以股票市场为代表的资产市场的作用。采用定截距固定效应模型的不同方法得出的结论是:反映资产市场发展的3个指标中,股票价格和金融业产值比率都对居民储蓄率有显著负向影响,而股市规模比率有微弱正向影响。总体上看,资产市场发展对储蓄的综合作用仍是负向的,资产市场能够通过分流储蓄和财富效应两条作用渠道降低居民储蓄率。