Roles of rural non-farm employment (RNFE) in India: Why RNFE,the conveyor of a shock like COVID 19 is also the key to recovery?

We assess the role of Rural Non-Farm Employment (RNFE) in livelihoods and in likely impacts of shocks like COVID 19. In India’s agri-food system, the preponderance of small farmers with low endowments of human and financial capital implies that, RNFE has been the principal source of poverty reduction. Yet, RNFE is also the most adversely affected by shocks like COVID 19 and the measures adopted to prevent disease spread. To assess the roles of RNFE and possible effects of shocks, we uniquely utilize the recent rounds of nationally representative Periodic Labor Force Surveys (PLFS). To assess the “potential impact” of COVID 19 on workers, by using the large dataset, we match similar workers in different states of employment (SOE) where SOE may partly reflect the situation post shock. Job loss, reduction in work hours, movement across types of employment, casualization within RNFE is possible due to shocks to RNFE. We estimate that SOE in RNFE have significant association with poverty and income. With the data on COVID lockdown periods, we then validate the results to pair with the prospectively assessed impacts. Notwithstanding the effect of shocks, RNFE has the unique potential in recovery, being the prime rural income generator and risk mitigator apart from being characterized by comparatively high growth in female employment and in socially disadvantaged groups in India.     

全球疫情冲击下的我国央行最优货币政策选择

在全球新冠病毒疫情冲击下,外国需求降低和国际大宗商品价格波动对我国实体经济造成了冲击,文章通过构建包含贸易和非贸易两部门的开放经济DSGE模型,利用脉冲响应和福利分析研究央行\"双政策双工具\"下的最优货币政策组合。结果表明：\"保增长\"的利率政策和\"稳汇率\"的汇率政策,能够更好的缓释新冠疫情带来的外部冲击,在\"保增长\"的利率政策下家庭福利水平高于\"防通胀\"的利率政策,而在\"稳汇率\"的汇率政策下家庭福利水平高于\"稳货币\"的汇率政策,因此,通过确定\"保增长\"和\"稳汇率\"的货币政策短期目标更有利于缓释外部环境对于本国贸易部门的冲击。     

The COVID‐19 Pandemic and Its Impact on the Global Economy: What Does It Take to Turn Crisis into Opportunity?

The COVID‐19 pandemic broke out at a time when there were heightened uncertainties in the global economy. Understanding these uncertainties provides an important background for analyzing the impact of the pandemic on the global economy, assessing the effectiveness of policy measures in combating the pandemic and reviving the global economy, and predicting the trajectory of the economic recovery in the post‐pandemic era. We analyze how COVID‐19 would likely deepen an existing malaise in the global economy, and what could be done to address these problems while managing the economic recovery. We argue that three fundamental factors that could lead to a solid recovery in the post pandemic era are structural reform, new technology and re‐integration. They could be managed by instituting a new “global social contract.” Supported by strong public policies at all levels, especially at national level, these three factors could bring about the salvation of the global economy as it recovers or re‐emerges from the pandemic crisis.     

Social Mobility in Nineteenth Century Rural Sweden – A Micro Level Analysis

Abstract

Pre-industrial rural societies have often been pictured as stationary and immobile both in geographical and social terms. In the last decades this image has begun to change, especially as regards geographical mobility, while our knowledge of social mobility of rural pre-industrial Europe is still rudimentary. This study focuses on social attainment and mobility in a rural community of nineteenth-century southern Sweden, making use of high quality micro-level demographic and socioeconomic data. We show that intergenerational social mobility was quite frequent. Downward mobility was more prevalent than upward, and also increased over time. Social attainment and mobility were determined by a combination of inherited factors and individual agency. Social origin was of major importance, and so was the social origin of the spouse, which points to the crucial role played by partner selection in determining individual social outcome. Availability of networks as measured by place of birth also played a role in social achievement.     

Do High-technology Exports Cause More Technology Spillover in China？

The volume of China’s high-technology exports has grown sharply since the implementation of its export promotion strategy \"Revitalizing Trade through Science and Technology\" in 1999.This paper investigates whether technology spillover effects are greater for hightechnology exports than for primary manufactured goods exports.We present a generalized multi-sector spillover model to identify both between spillover effects from exports towards non-exporters and within-spillover effects among export sectors.Using panel data for 31 provinces in China over the period from 1998 to 2005,we find that although high-technology export sectors have higher productivity compared with other sectors,this productivity advantage does not lead to technology spillover to both domestic sectors and other export sectors,and export technology spillover mainly derives from traditional export sectors rather than high-technology export sectors.As such findings can be largely attributed to the fact that China’s high-technology exports depend significantly on processing trade by foreign- invested firms,policy implications are discussed in relation to how to best promote the role of China’s high-technology exports during economic expansion.     

What are the Determinants of Large‐scale Farming in China?

The Chinese Government has increased its focus on expanding farm scale to promote agricultural development since 2010. A series of favorable polices has been adopted to support large‐scale farming. Using a multivariate probit model and 2015 and 2016 rural household survey data, the present paper examines the factors that influence small farmers' decision to become large‐scale farmers. The empirical regression results suggest that the decision to become a large‐scale farmer is significantly influenced by household human capital, cooperative membership, marketing channels, land‐transfer contracts and government policies. However, the influence of these factors differs with respect to becoming large‐scale grain and non‐grain farmers. These results imply that policy tools should target these factors and the appropriate group of small‐scale farmers. Generally, both central and local governments should promote large‐scale farming by enhancing rural households' human capital, improving marketing channels and providing agricultural social services, as well as encouraging returning migrant workers to engage in large‐scale farming.