影响中国城市增长的因素:地级及以上城市的实证检验

论文以国内外相关城市增长理论为基础,构建了分析中国城市增长的系统模型,并利用206个城市1990年与2005年的社会经济统计数据进行了实证研究.研究结果表明:(1)中国城市的经济增长主要是由劳动生产率提高而非人口规模增长推动的;(2)政府财政支出和城市人力资本积累是目前中国城市经济增长的主要驱动力;(3)人力资本积累并没有在工资增长上得到体现;(4)城市公共设施和环境的改善引致了城市人口增长,但对城市经济发展却没有明显的作用.在以上研究结果基础上,论文提出了保持城市可持续发展的一些政策建议.     

City size and urban labor productivity in China: New evidence from spatial city-level panel data analysis

The previous literature has generally found that most Chinese cities were undersized in the 1990s. However, little is known about how urban agglomeration in China has evolved since the country began to experience much faster urbanization and deep marketization after 2000. Based on panel data of 281 cities between 2000 and 2013, our spatial panel data regression results show that the scale impact of city size on urban productivity appears to have an inverted U shape, and its effect will grow when the cities’ industrial structure becomes more dominated by the service sector. There are also significant spatial interactions and spatial heterogeneity of urban agglomeration among Chinese cities. Furthermore, we compute the optimal size for each city and find that most Chinese cities are still undersized in recent years. Based on our findings, we argue that the Chinese government should focus on promoting sufficient growth of medium sized cities in its new urbanization strategy.     

Evidence on agglomeration economies,diseconomies, and growth

Conventional urban economic analysis suggests that a local economy's size is closely related to a number of features, including levels of human capital and the availability of specialized inputs, which are likely to influence positively the rate at which it accumulates further economic activity. At the same time, urban theory also suggests that once cities reach a certain level of size, these agglomeration benefits begin to peter out, while diseconomies rise rapidly. Consequently, we should see an ‘inverted U‐shaped’ pattern of growth with respect to economic size—rates of growth first rise, then fall as size increases. This paper shows that, while such a pattern is largely absent from recent data on growth in metropolitan area population and employment, it emerges strikingly in county‐level data. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Managing the well-being of temporary skilled migrants

The war for talent, whereby skilled workers move between countries, continues to remain a global issue. This paper is informed by the human resource management (HRM) literature on global careers of skilled migrants and their cross-cultural adjustment and well-being. These literatures draw on human capital theory to understand skilled migration. In this paper, a case study of Western Australia's answer to addressing skills shortages by employing skilled migrant workers through temporary skilled migration schemes (employer-sponsored) situates the discussion within the role of HRM. Temporary skilled migrants are vulnerable in that they can experience a number of stressors, including long periods of separation from their loved ones, commencing a new job in an alien environment and resettlement tasks. The paper makes a contribution in utilising Al Ariss and Syed's (2011) model of human capital drawing on social, cultural, economic and symbolic forms of currency for temporary skilled migrants. This group is not homogenous in that they all draw on these aspects of human capital in varying ways. By addressing the gaps, HRM can add value in providing assimilation strategies for temporary migrant workers that supports retention and ensures improved worker well-being.     

URBAN DEVELOPMENT ISSUES IN THE PACIFIC RIM

Using a broad definition of the Pacific Rim (including some countries in Latin America), this paper examines selected aspects of Pacific Rim urban development. Despite the overwhelming economic dominance of the United States and Japan, urbanization in Pacific Rim countries is very diverse. Yet growth in most large cities on the Rim is decelerating, suggesting a possible paradox of rapid economic growth coexisting with slower urban growth. Location on the Rim may be important only for certain types of economic interaction, i.e. those subject to distance decay rather than being transmitted electronically. The internationalization of urbanization in the Pacific Rim is open to benign rather than dependency interpretations, given that economic and social conditions are better in developing countries in this region than in the rest of the world. The large size of many Pacific Rim primate cities suggests the need for a polycentric spatial structure, and the issue is how much intervention and of what kind is needed to ensure that decentralization takes place efficiently. Transportation may be one sector where successful innovations are transferable from one city to another. Environmental quality is a serious but neglected problem in many Pacific Rim cities, but will become more important as incomes rise. It remains unclear whether Metropolitan Development Authorities or some other form of regional government are needed for efficient metropolitan government. The most distinctive feature of Pacific Rim urban development is the commonality of urban problems that arise in rapidly growing economies.     

公共资本生产率的比较研究——基于长三角21城市公共资本边际生产率的实证分析

近10年来长三角的政府公共投资（分配）过多地流向了上海、苏州、杭州、南京等核心城市，使这些城市的人均公共资本拥有量大幅上升，从而引发了其边际生产率递减情况的发生。但它们的资本利用效率或技术创新水平没有明显提升（或下降），不足以抵消其资本边际生产率下降的趋势。对这些大城市的经济发展来说，公共投资对其经济增长的意义已经在数量上表现得不明显，但对正处于经济快速增长期且资本边际生产率呈递增态势的长三角外缘中小城市而言，公共投资却有着积极意义。     

PUBLIC R&D POLICIES AND PRIVATE R&D INVESTMENT: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

The importance of R&D investment in explaining economic growth is well documented in the literature. Policies by modern governments increasingly recognise the benefits of supporting R&D investment. Government funding has, however, become an increasingly scarce resource in times of financial crisis and economic austerity. Hence, it is important that available funds are used and targeted effectively. This paper offers the first systematic review and critical discussion of what the R&D literature has to say currently about the effectiveness of major public R&D policies in increasing private R&D investment. Public policies are considered within three categories, R&D tax credits and direct subsidies, support of the university research system and the formation of high‐skilled human capital, and support of formal R&D cooperations across a variety of institutions. Crucially, the large body of more recent literature observes a shift away from the earlier findings that public subsidies often crowd‐out private R&D to finding that subsidies typically stimulate private R&D. Tax credits are also much more unanimously than previously found to have positive effects. University research, high‐skilled human capital, and R&D cooperation also typically increase private R&D. Recent work indicates that accounting for non‐linearities is one area of research that may refine existing results.     

Stock markets,banks and the sources of economic growth in low and high income countries

This paper studies the effects of stock markets and banks on the sources of economic growth, productivity and capital accumulation, using a large cross country panel that includes high- and low-income countries. Results show that, in low-income countries, banks have a sizable positive effect on capital accumulation. We find that stock markets, however, have not contributed to capital accumulation or productivity growth in these countries. Given the emphasis that has been placed in developing equity markets in developing countries, these findings are somewhat surprising. Conversely, in high-income countries, stock markets are found to have sizable positive effects on both productivity and capital growth, while banks only affect capital accumulation.     

UNEMPLOYMENT, TRANS-BOUNDARY POLLUTION, AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY IN A DUALISTIC ECONOMY

This study is intended to examine the effects of environmental policies on employment, the use of polluting goods, and the unemployment rate under a model introducing trans-boundary pollution affecting the productivity of the other productive sectors. That model was designed by Copeland and Taylor (1999) , and transformed into a dualistic economy model constructed by Harris and Todaro (1970) . Results of our analyses show that enforcement of environmental policy through control of emissions taxes does not necessarily worsen urban unemployment. Therefore, we show that it is not usually proper to maintain that some environmental pollution cannot be avoided to establish economic development. Moreover, we analyze the effect of some environmental policies on social welfare and discuss the effectiveness of those policies.     

绿色城市:城市发展与环境的动态关系

不久的将来,世界上大多数的人都将在商业化的城市中生活和工作。数十亿人的生活质量将取决于自由市场经济的发展与绿色城市的关系。有的城市在增长时环境会恶化,而有的城市却可以保护甚至提高环境的质量,这个问题得到了众多研究者来自不同角度的关注。论文在大量文献与数据的基础上探讨了城市发展与环境之间的动态关系,介绍了经典的环境库兹涅茨曲线假说,并从人口增长、城市空间蔓延以及外部性等方面对环境库兹涅茨曲线假说进行了补充与完善。     

资本市场扭曲对城市全要素生产率的影响研究——基于规模和技术视角

在创新驱动发展的背景下,资本市场化改革有助于提高资本配置效率,进而对全要素生产率产生影响。基于中国城市相关数据,利用生产函数法和随机前沿估计法测算资本市场扭曲,并利用DEA-Malmquist指数法对城市全要素生产率进行分解,从规模和技术视角切入,实证分析了资本市场扭曲对城市规模效率、技术效率和全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,资本市场扭曲增加对规模效率具有正向影响,对技术效率和全要生产率具有负向影响。反事实分析结果显示,当消除资本市场扭曲后,从全国层面看,规模效率平均下降0.54%,技术效率平均上升4.25%,全要素生产率平均上升1.54%。     

DETERMINANTS OF CITY GROWTH AND OUTPUT IN INDIA

To investigate what determines urban population and economic growth, the determinants of urban population growth and economic output in India are examined empirically. City growth and economic output regressions are estimated using several approaches. Since only growing areas are usually designated as towns, the urban population of districts that are larger geographical areas than cities are estimated. It is found that, at the district level, manufacturing has a positive impact on city size, and proximity to large cities causes nearby cities to be larger, reflecting agglomeration effects.     

Do We Still Need Cities? Evidence on Rates of Innovation from Count Data Models of Metropolitan Statistical Area Patents

Evidence of the importance of urban agglomeration and the offsetting effects of congestion are provided in a number of studies of productivity and wages. Little attention has been paid to this evidence in the economic growth literature, where the recent focus is on technological change. We extend the idea of agglomeration and congestion effects to the area of innovation by empirically looking for a nonlinear link between population density and patent activity. A panel data set consisting of observations on 302 USA metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) over a 10-year period from 1990 to 1999 is utilized. Following the patent and R&D literature, models that account for the discreet nature of the dependent variable are employed. Strong evidence is found that agglomeration and congestion are important in explaining the vast differences in patent rates across US cities. The most important reason cities continue to exist, given the dramatic drop in transportation costs for physical goods over the last century, is probably related to the forces of agglomeration as they apply to knowledge spillovers. Therefore, the empirical investigation proposed here is an important part of understanding the viability of urban areas in the future.     

Certified and uncertified skills and productivity growth performance: Cross-country evidence at industry level

We analyse the relationship between human capital and productivity growth using a five-country multi-industry dataset together with a measure of human capital which accounts for both certified skills (educational qualifications) and uncertified skills acquired through on-the-job training and experience. We find evidence of positive human capital effects on growth in average labour productivity, particularly when using our composite human capital measure. We also find some tentative evidence that multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth is positively related to the use of high-skilled labour. However, externalities of this kind are largely confined to industries which make intensive use of university graduates.     

Environmental regulation,pollution reduction and green innovation: The case of the Chinese Water Ecological Civilization City Pilot policy

This paper treats the Water Ecological Civilisation City Pilot (WECCP) policy as a quasi-natural experiment, and integrates environmental regulation, pollution reduction and green innovation into a unified analytical framework. Based on the pollution emission index and green patent data for 283 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2018, we examine the impact of WECCP policy on urban pollution emissions and green innovation by using a difference-in-differences model. The results show that the WECCP policy has significant regional pollution reduction effects, that is, the policy significantly reduces water pollution in the pilot cities, while it has a weak impact on air quality improvement. Also, we find that the WECCP policy significantly promotes the growth of the number of green patent applications in the pilot cities, indicating that the policy can significantly improve urban green innovation capacity. The mediating effect analysis shows that the WECCP policy can improve regional environmental quality by enhancing urban green innovation ability. Furthermore, the heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the WECCP policy has more significant effects on pollution reduction and green innovation in small cities.     

Human capital,investment and growth: Some results from an endogenous growth model

Recent theoretical literature on the sources of economic growth has emphasized the role of human capital as an internal contributing force in the growth process. Empirical results reported in this paper provide support for this theoretical proposition. Cross-country data from 32 developing countries indicate that human capital (as alternatively measured by the primary school enrollment rate or the adult literacy rate) exerts a significant positive impact upon output growth.     

Cities in Contemporary Capitalism

This article outlines essential concepts of the political economy approach of urban research and offers critical modifications and clarifications to some of its contentions concerning the functioning of cities as ‘strategic places’ of capital accumulation. The interrelations between contemporary capitalism and urban economic development are discussed at the scale of a transnationally extended urban system. Based on the general context of the global economic downturn, I focus on the role of cities in distinct circuits of capital, the switching of capital flows within the urban system and the different functional roles of cities within the world city network that interconnects cities both in the global North and South. I call into question the established focus of urban economic research on the role of cities as financial and service centres, arguing that cities might redirect their economic development trajectories towards ‘real economy’ activities, in contrast to relying on the disastrous development model of finance‐dominated capitalism.     

城市商品住宅价格水平影响因素研究

商品住宅价格问题是社会关注的焦点问题.以全国35个重点城市1999年-2005年数据为基础,研究城市住宅价格水平的影响因素.研究显示,代表城市经济发展水平和居民收入水平、单位面积土地投入、城市区位和城市环境等侧面的职工平均工资、单位面积固定资产投资、人均铺装道路面积、距海岸线的距离、通过城市的国道数量、建成区绿化覆盖率这6个因素是影响城市住宅价格水平的主要因素.可以预期,当一个城市的这些因素发生相对变化和绝对变化的时候,城市的住宅价格水平必然会发生相应的变化.阳光充足、水资源丰富、交通便捷的近海地区城市的商品住宅价格变动幅度会由于经济发展、人口增加、区住条件进一步优化、投入加大等各种条件的较大变化而高于其他城市.     

人力资本与产业结构转化对经济增长的效应分析

本文根据两部门经济增长模型,以1995~2009年中国29个省际数据为对象,运用分位数回归的方法考察了人力资本、产业结构对中国经济增长的影响。理论分析和实证研究均表明：人力资本对经济增长有显著的促进作用,且在条件分布的不同位置,这种作用存在明显差异;产业结构从传统产业向现代产业的转化也是经济增长的重要推动力;人力资本的经济增长效应受产业结构的影响,与人力资本相适应的产业结构转化可以优化人力资本的配置,提高人力资本的产出效率,有助于经济持续、快速地增长。     

企业私有化程度提高则社会环境会变差？

从企业私有化角度出发,构建二元经济理论模型和实证模型分析私有化对环境污染的影响。理论研究发现,由于城市部门资本密集程度高于农村部门,而且如果农村劳动者从环境改善中获得的边际效用小于城市劳动者从环境改善中获得的边际效用,那么提高私有化导致单位产出污染排放减少时会引起：（1）劳动和资本要素会向城市流动,城市工业部门产出增加;农业部门由于劳动和资本流出而导致产出减少,即城市扩张而农村收缩;(2)城市地区的失业总人数会增加;(3)私有化导致单位产出污染排放减少的效应大于工业产出增加导致污染排放增加的效应,最终导致社会环境改善,但如果私有化导致单位产出污染排放增加,则会得出相反的结论。实证结果表明：企业私有化水平提高有利于降低单位产出固体废物、废水、二氧化硫和烟尘等污染物的排放,资本投入也有利于降低单位产出污染物的排放。