Sectoral regularities of productivity growth in developing countries--a Kaldorian interpretation

This paper provides a Kaldorian interpretation for empiricalregularities of productivity growth at the sectoral level ofthe economy. The statistical evidence is based on a datasetdrawn from internationally compatible time series for employmentand value added in 30 developing countries. Based on novel non-linearstatistical techniques the findings show: (i) a regular patternof positive sectoral employment elasticities with respect tooutput growth; (ii) robust differences across sectors in themagnitude of the employment elasticities; and (iii) employmentelasticities for all sectors that are significantly less thanunity, suggesting strong evidence for increasing returns atthe sector level of the economy.     

Sectoral Energy- and Labour-Productivity Convergence

This paper empirically investigates the development of cross-country differences in energy- and labour productivity. The analysis is performed at a detailed sectoral level for 14 OECD countries, covering the period 1970–1997. A σ-convergence analysis reveals that the development over time of the cross-country variation in productivity performance differs across sectors as well as across different levels of aggregation. Both patterns of convergence as well as divergence are found. Cross-country variation of productivity levels is typically larger for energy than for labour. A β-convergence analysis provides support for the hypothesis that in most sectors lagging countries tend to catch up with technological leaders, in particular in terms of energy productivity. Moreover, the results show that convergence is conditional, meaning that productivity levels converge to country-specific steady states. Energy prices and wages are shown to positively affect energy- and labour-productivity growth, respectively. We also find evidence for the importance of economies of scale, whereas the investment share, openness and specialization play only a modest role in explaining cross-country variation in energy- and labour-productivity growth.      

The Effects of Technology Changes on Sectoral Trade Patterns*

We develop a model in which sectoral trade patterns depend on both the technology common to all sectors and the technologies specific to each sector. Changes in the common technology level affect sectoral trade patterns through their impact on intertemporal optimization behavior, while changes in the sector‐specific technology levels affect sectoral trade patterns by influencing comparative advantage. The model shows: (1) unexpected increases in the common technology level worsen sectoral trade balances, but expected increases in the common technology level improve them; and (2) given other countries’ sectoral technology levels, an increase in a sector‐specific technology level relative to other sectors improves sectoral trade balances through its operation on comparative advantage. Using Japanese data, the empirical results reported in this paper support the model’s predictions.     

Why is TFP growth sectorally concentrated?

Research shows that total factor productivity (TFP) growth is weak in European countries. This is inter alia attributed to the fact that substantial TFP growth is limited to a few industries. Because TFP growth is typically understood as technological progress, it is concluded that technology diffusion between sectors in Europe is hampered. We use EU KLEMS data sets to decompose sectoral TFP for nine European countries by means of a Malmquist approach in order to identify potential sources besides technical progress. Applying Harberger diagrams, we describe the sectoral distribution of TFP growth, efficiency gains and losses, economies of scale and technological progress. The analysis reveals that technological progress is quite evenly distributed across sectors in most European countries. The wide scattering of TFP growth is explained by deviating efficiency developments and the unused economies of scale. We conclude that the technology transfer between sectors in most European countries seems to work. Therefore, Europe in general does not need a new technology policy, but a further integration of the markets and a reduction of national market entry barriers. This requires further unification of pan-European standards in fields like trade and crafts codes or consumer protection policies.     

部门间生产率差距、劳动力去工业化与结构性减速

基于中国劳动力就业结构出现过快和过早去工业化的迹象，本文从部门间生产率差距的视角，利用多部门一般均衡模型、数值模拟和计量实证分析方法研究发现：（1）理论上，当服务业劳动生产率增长慢于工业，部门间生产率差距将扩大，导致劳动力去工业化速率加快；且部门间生产率差距的存在使得劳动力去工业化对经济增长产生结构性减速效应。服务业部门生产率加快提升，部门间生产率差距将会缩小，从而减缓去工业化速率和降低结构性减速压力；工业部门生产率提升尽管会扩大部门间生产率差距从而加快劳动力去工业化，但在长期中起到均匀化经济增长速率的作用。（2）利用2001—2018年中国省级和城市级面板数据的计量实证分析发现，部门间生产率差距的存在导致劳动力去工业化的效应在全时段样本下显著，但劳动力去工业化对经济增长的结构性减速效应仅在2009—2018年区间样本下显著，表明近年来中国经济增长减速与部门间生产率差距及其导致的劳动力去工业化相关。（3）赶超成功与失败国家的经验比较也表明，工业与服务业部门劳动生产率的改善与协调是跨越中等收入陷阱以及跨越后实现持续赶超的关键。     

Regional and sectoral dynamics of the Dutch staffing labor cycle

This study analyzes the dynamic characteristics of staffing employment across different business sectors and across different geographical regions in The Netherlands. We analyze a micro data set of the market leader of the Dutch staffing employment market, i.e. Randstad. We apply the dynamic factor model to extract common information out of a large data set and to isolate business cycle frequencies with the aim of forecasting staffing and total employment. We identify regions and sectors whose cyclical developments lead the staffing labor cycle at the country level. The dynamic factor model exploits these leading characteristics at the disaggregate level to forecast the country aggregate. Finally, both dynamic and static factors turn out to be predictive summary statistics of the micro data set when employed to forecast total employment at the country level.     

Sectoral and aggregate technology growth in Spain

In this paper we analyze technological change in the Spanish economy by constructing adjusted Solow residuals, where the adjustment attempts to correct for the bias associated with the potential presence of imperfect competition, increasing returns, variable input utilization and, especially, sectoral reallocation of inputs across sectors. We refer to this modified Solow residual as a technology index. Sectoral reallocations and variable input utilization are key determinants of the differences between the aggregate Solow residual and the technology index resulting from the aggregation of estimated sectoral technological growth. We show that starting in the mid nineties, there has been a deceleration in the aggregate growth rate of technology which is basically due to the behaviour of the manufacturing sectors. Finally, our results imply that aggregate technology growth is less volatile than aggregate productivity as measured by the Solow residual.     

How important is the intermediate input channel in explaining sectoral employment comovement over the business cycle?

This paper investigates both analytically and quantitatively the role of intersectoral linkages in explaining sectoral employment comovement over the business cycle. We use a multisector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated to the 2-digit SIC level intermediate input-use and capital-use tables and sectoral productivity shocks. With indivisible labor implying constant marginal utility of leisure, intersectoral linkages at the disaggregated level generate strong employment comovement across sectors. With divisible labor, however, procyclical marginal utility of leisure can dominate intersectoral linkages, implying some negative comovement. It further requires some form of the difficulty in reallocating labor across sectors, so that the substitutability of labor supply across sectors is relatively low. With divisible labor, a limited substitution of labor hours across sectors is shown to generate strong employment comovement over the business cycle.     

Sectoral and Aggregate Technology Shocks:Is There a Relationship?

We analyze sector-specific shocks in productivity and demand in 19 manufacturing sectors of the Austrian economy. Based on a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) with long-run restrictions developed by Galí (1999) we extract technology and non-technology shocks from sectoral and aggregate data. We study their patterns and relationship by means of a principal components analysis and find a close association of sectoral and macroeconomic non-technology shocks but only a very weak association for technology shocks. Impulse response analysis indicates that for almost all manufacturing sectors as well as the aggregate Austrian economy productivity growth rates experience an immediate increase due to positive technology shocks while hours worked decline. Thereby we confirm Galís results on the level of Austrian manufacturing industries. From regression analysis, we find that our shocks are closely associated to employment growth and output growth but not to investment growth and that the reaction is different for the aggregate economy and manufacturing industries.JEL codes: D24, E23, E32, O30We thank Werner Müller and the participants of the 2004 conference of the Austrian Economic Association (NOeG) for helpful comments. We would like to thank an anonymous referee for many helpful comments that led to a substantial improvement of the paper. The usual disclaimer applies. This research project was supported by a research Grant (Project Nr. 9800) of the Jubiläumsfonds der Österreichische Nationalbank (OeNB).     

Micro and macro dynamics: Industry life cycles,inter-sector coordination and aggregate growth

Technological change directly affects economic growth by exploiting and exploring technological opportunities, thus determining productivity growth and income. However, technological change also affects the composition of the economic system, which itself constitutes an important prerequisite for economic growth. The first aim of this paper is to show that the growing variety of the economic system, determined by the emergence of new products and services and leading to new industrial sectors, can allow the long term continuation of economic development, even when the employment creating capacity of individual sectors falls. The second aim is to illustrate the impact of micro variables on the meso-level, that is, on the sectoral composition of an economy, as well as on its macro-economic performance.      

Married women's labor supply and economic development: Evidence from Sri Lankan household data

Women's labor supply in Sri Lanka has increased steadily since the early 1990s following economic reforms, but remains well below the level predicted by national income, a feature shared by a number of Asian and Latin American countries that have undergone similar reforms and economic growth. To understand the microeconomic determinants of women's work in Sri Lanka's growing economy, this paper estimates a binary‐choice model of married women's labor supply using household survey data spanning a 23‐year period. Decomposition and cohort analysis reveal that women have been drawn into the workforce through falling fertility rates, rising tertiary education, and declining income effects among younger generations, but other factors have undermined this positive trend. Educational attainment reduces married women's labor supply except at the tertiary level, consistent with social stigmas associated with married women in non‐white‐collar employment. The strict sectoral segregation of married women by education level supports this hypothesis. In addition, growth has been concentrated in low‐skilled sectors with self‐employment more prevalent, reducing employment prospects of educated women and prompting their labor force withdrawal. This suggests it is the structure of economic development, rather than speed, that matters for women's labor force activity.     

Generalized barriers to entry and economic development

In their catching-up processes, less developed countries face inter-country barriers which hamper their efforts to imitate the technologies of advanced countries. These international barriers to entry can be traced back to differences in the institutions supporting technological advancement and to the physical and intangible resources necessary for the creation of new competences. In less developed countries, these international barriers aggravate the barriers to entry at the sectoral level and, together, they constitute the generalized barriers to entry. In our paper, we extend a model of economic growth by the entry of new sectors by including these international barriers and show how widening development gaps describing the differences in general income and employment trends can emerge in an auto-catalytic process.     

The implications of heterogeneous resource intensities on technical change and growth

Abstract We analyze the long‐term dynamics of an economy in which sectors are heterogeneous with respect to the intensity of natural resource use. It is shown that heterogeneity induces technical change to be biased towards resource‐intensive sectors. Along the balanced growth path, the sectoral structure of the economy is constant as the higher resource dependency in resource‐intensive sectors is compensated by enhanced research activities. Resource taxes have no impact on dynamics except when the tax rate varies over time. Research subsidies and the sectoral provision of productivity‐enhancing public goods raise growth and provide an effective tool for structural policy.     

The Elasticity of Poverty with respect to Sectoral Growth in Africa

The African continent has grown by more than 4 percent yearly on average during the past decade. However, the link between this remarkable growth rate and poverty reduction is neither obvious nor simple. This paper focuses on the elasticity of poverty with respect to GDP growth at the sectoral level and takes into account the fact that economic growth may affect poverty directly as well as indirectly through sectoral labor share intensity. It develops a methodology that sheds light on the contribution of sectoral growth to poverty reduction country‐by‐country in Africa, guiding policy recommendations. As the composition of growth matters at least as much as its overall intensity, it is key to identify the sectors that have the strongest impact on poverty reduction and unleash their potential; if growth happens to concentrate in sectors with scarce pro‐poor potential, like commodity‐driven growth, redistributive strategies are necessary to compensate the weak effect on poverty.     

Can total factor productivity explain value added growth in services?

This paper examines the factors responsible for generating the services led growth witnessed in the Indian economy during 1980–2005. A sectoral growth accounting exercise shows that total factor productivity (TFP) growth was the fastest for services; moreover this TFP increase was significant in accounting for service sector value added growth. A growth model with agriculture, industry and services as three principal sectors is calibrated to Indian data using sectoral TFP growth rates. The baseline model performs well in accounting for the evolution of value added shares and their growth rates, but is unable to capture sectoral employment share trends. The performance of the model with respect to value added shares improves when the post 1991 increase in service sector TFP growth following the inception of market-based liberalization reforms is accounted for. A modified version of the model with public capital can better track trends in sectoral employment shares.     

THE IMPACT OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN COMPETITION ON SECTORAL GROWTH: A CROSS‐COUNTRY ANALYSIS

This paper examines the impact of competition on the total factor productivity (TFP) of 21 manufacturing sectors in eighteen OECD countries over the period of time 1990–2006. We assume that the source of TFP growth can be either domestic or foreign innovation or technology transfer from the technological frontier. Trade openness, R&D, and human capital can have two effects: a direct effect on TFP (e.g., through innovation) and an indirect effect depending on the productivity gap between a given country and the technological frontier. We find that tougher domestic competition is always associated with higher sectoral productivity. Both import and export penetrations are positively associated with an increase of TFP. However, the channels through which higher TFP is materialized are different: export penetration works through level effect, while import penetration acts mainly when conditional on the level of technological development. The economical magnitude of the effect is not trivial.     

Let's Get Real: A Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle Dynamics

This paper develops a method for analysing the dynamics of large cross-sections based on a factor analytic model. We use "law of large numbers" arguments to show that the number of common factors can be determined by a principal components method, the economy-wide shocks can be identified by means of simple structural VAR techniques and that the parameters of the unobserved factor model can be estimated consistently by applying OLS equation by equation. We distinguish between a technological and a non-technological shock. Identification is obtained by minimizing the negative realizations of the technology shock. Empirical results on 4-digit industrial output and productivity for the U.S. economy from 1958 to 1986 show that: (1) at least two economy-wide shocks, both having a long-run effect on sectoral output, are needed to explain the common dynamics; (2) although the technological shock accounts for at least 50 per cent of the aggregate dynamics of output, it cannot by itself explain dynamics at business cycle frequencies; (3) sector-specific shocks explain the main bulk of total variance but generate mainly high frequency dynamics; (4) both the technological and the non-technological component of output show a peak for positive sectoral comovements of output at business cycle frequencies; (5) technological shocks are strongly correlated with the growth rates of the investment in machinery and equipment sectors and their inputs.     

Technological Activity and Employment in a Panel of UK Firms

We investigate the relationship between technological activity, proxied by R&D, patents, and trade marks, and employment for a panel of British production firms from 1987 to 1994. We modify standard derived demand for labour to include technology variables. We find employment is fostered by R&D expenditure and UK patent publications, ceteris paribus on factor costs and current sales. The employment impact of R&D is bigger in high technology sectors, but employment increase from UK patenting activity is bigger in mature technology sectors. In further analysis of persistent differences (the estimated firm fixed effects) UK trade marks and US patents are also positively associated with employment.     

THE MICRO‐DYNAMICS OF CATCH‐UP IN INDONESIAN PAPER MANUFACTURING

In this study we analyze the micro‐dynamics of catch‐up in Indonesian paper manufacturing, using a two‐country plant‐level dataset for the period 1975–97. We apply data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure to what extent Indonesian paper mills are catching up with Finnish mills in terms of technical efficiency. Three questions are addressed: What is the distribution of Indonesian plant technical efficiency vis‐à‐vis the technological frontier? What is the role of entry, exit, and survival in Indonesia for catch‐up in the paper industry as a whole? In what ways do catching‐up plants in Indonesia differ from non‐catching‐up plants? We find that on average the Indonesian paper industry moved closer to the technological frontier during the 1990s. However, catch‐up has been a highly localized process in which only a few large establishments have achieved near best‐practice performance, while most other plants have stayed behind.     

Productivity and convergence across U.S. States and industries

We examine the sources of aggregate labor productivity movements and convergence in the U.S. states from 1963 to 1989. Productivity levels vary widely across sectors and across states, as do sectoral output and employment shares. The main finding is the diverse performance of sectors regarding convergence. Using both cross-section and time series methods, we find convergence in labor productivity for both manufacturing and mining. However, we find that convergence does not hold for all sectors over the period. Decomposing aggregate convergence into industry productivity gains and changing sectoral shares of output, we find the manufacturing sector to be responsible for the bulk of cross-state convergence.