Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Preferential Trade Associations on Agricultural and Food Trade

Agricultural market distortions remain a major focus of contention in world trade negotiations. Estimates of the effects of liberalising current agricultural trade restrictions indicate an approximately $385 billion increase in global welfare, with the disproportionate share of the benefit being enjoyed by developing countries. In response to difficulties in adopting agricultural trade reforms, individual groups of countries have formed multiple bilateral and regional preferential trade agreements (PTA) to enhance trade among members. Few sectoral analyses exist of the effects on agricultural and food product trade of PTAs. This research uses a gravity model to isolate the effects of various PTAs on both intra‐ and extra‐bloc agricultural and food product trade for three time periods: 1995, 2000 and 2004. Findings strongly support PTA benefits in terms of increased intra‐bloc trade in both sectors. The findings also generally support trade creation in agricultural products. PTA membership was also associated with food trade creation in most cases, although diversion was observed for several associations composed primarily of developing countries.     

中美贸易摩擦对中美农产品贸易结构的影响研究

中美农产品贸易一直是双方经贸关系中的重要组成部分.自2018年4月中美贸易摩擦发生以来,中美双方公布的贸易清单几乎涵盖两国双边贸易所有产品,这一决策可能会使中国农业产业和粮食安全面临严峻考验.本文获取了中美分三次发布的加征关税产品清单,对加征关税产品占中美农产品贸易的份额进行核算,并使用贸易强度指数、基尼-赫希曼指数,...     

Home Bias in Primary Agricultural and Processed Food Trade: Assessing the Effects of National Degree of Uncertainty Aversion

This study investigates the effects of national degrees of uncertainty aversion (unfamiliarity avoidance) on the magnitude of bias towards domestic products rather than imports. The empirical analysis is implemented for primary agricultural and processed food products, using a panel dataset covering trade between and within OECD countries. Primary agricultural products are often blended and associated with reference prices. Conversely, processed food products exhibit higher levels of product differentiation. The empirical results confirm expectations by emphasizing the magnifying effects of uncertainty aversion on home bias in the case of processed food products but not in the case of primary agricultural products. These magnifying effects are primarily associated with processed food products destined for final household consumption. Other results reveal significant variations between different countries (based on geo‐economic and national income categories). Our results also indicate that home bias and uncertainty aversion effects on home bias have not decreased over time. The empirical results remain robust under different estimation methods.     

Do Regional Trade Agreements Increase Members' Agricultural Trade?

The gravity model is used extensively to investigate the trade flow effects of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). A notable feature common to previous research is the use of aggregate trade data. These studies typically report conflicting, and even negative results of the effect of RTAs on members' trade. Using recent developments in the gravity equation suggested by Baier and Bergstrand (2007) and Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) , this article demonstrates that RTA effects on members' trade depend fundamentally on whether the analysis focuses on agricultural or nonagricultural sectors, on the particular agreement analyzed, and on the length of the phase-in period that characterizes almost all RTAs.     

中日韩农产品产业内贸易研究

农产品贸易状况对于中日韩自由贸易区的建立有着十分重要意义。发展农产品产业内贸易有利于优化产业结构,提高农产品贸易水平。本文根据对中日韩三国间农产品产业内贸易现状的深入分析,认为中国与日、韩间农产品贸易方式以产业间贸易为主,日本与韩国间的农产品产业内贸易水平有上升的趋势,而后进一步分析其主要原因在于比较优势、贸易壁垒、经济水平等因素,最后建议应从调整产业结构、提高农产品质量、积极参与自由贸易区谈判入手,改善农产品贸易状况。     

Standards as Barriers Versus Standards as Catalysts: Assessing the Impact of HACCP Implementation on U.S. Seafood Imports

The United States mandated a Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points (HACCP) food safety standard for seafood in 1997. Panel model results for 1990 to 2004 suggest that HACCP introduction had a negative and significant impact on overall imports from the top thirty-three suppliers. While the effect for developed countries was positive, the negative effect for developing countries supports the view of "standards as barriers" versus "standards as catalysts." A different perspective emerges from individual country-level analysis. Regardless of development status, leading seafood exporters generally experienced a positive HACCP effect, while most other smaller trading partners faced a negative effect.     

食品安全标准与食品检测标准在应用中的问题探讨

食品安全是世界范围内高度关注的问题之一.近年来,我国经济飞速发展,人们物质生活显著改善,食品种类更加丰富,但与此同时食品安全问题也愈加突出,严重威胁人们的健康,也影响了市场经济健康发展.食品安全标准和食品检测标准的出台在很大程度上规范了我国的食品市场,强化了食品安全监管,但是在实际应用过程中也存在一定的问题,如适用范围...     

The Impact of Regulations on Agricultural Trade: Evidence from the SPS and TBT Agreements

According to World Trade Organization rules, countries may adopt regulations under the Agreements on Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT). We analyze the structure of these measures in agricultural trade. The inventory approach suggests that European countries have among the lowest coverage ratios of all OECD countries. Using a gravity equation, we also estimate their stringency. Our results suggest that they significantly reduce developing countries' exports to OECD countries, but do not affect trade between OECD members. Furthermore, European imports are more negatively influenced by SPS and TBTs than imports of other OECD countries.     

电商发展对农产品进出口贸易的影响分析

农产品电商改变了农产品传统的交易方式,拓展了需求空间,降低农产品进出口贸易成本,对农产品进出口贸易扩大有一定的促进作用。本文以我国1999—2017年的统计数据对农产品网络零售交易总额、冷链物流市场规模和主要农产品进出口额之间的关系建立计量模型并展开协整分析。研究发现农产品电商的发展对农产品进出口贸易扩大有促进作用,但不是对所有的农产品都有作用。农产品电商的发展和大豆出口额、水果出口额、食用植物油的进口额不存在长期的均衡关系。因此,本文建议完善农产品电商体系,结合农产品的特征提高农产品进出口贸易国际竞争力,促进国民经济增长。     

《日美贸易协定》对我国农产品贸易的影响及对策

本文在分析日美农产品关税、贸易和在《日美贸易协定》中降税情况的基础上,采用GTAP模型定量分析《协定》实施对我国农产品贸易的影响。结果显示:《协定》的实施将对我国农业总体发展产生一定冲击,日美相互减免农产品关税将带来一定程度的贸易转移效应,尤其对我国出口日本的蔬果和畜产品影响尤为明显。结合我国自贸区谈判和农业发展情况,本文提出积极推动多双边农业谈判、培育出口竞争优势、借鉴日本经验灵活处理农产品降税、利用自贸试验区积极对接农业国际规则等政策建议。     

The Effects of NAFTA/CUSFTA on Agricultural Trade Flows: An Empirical Investigation

This paper examines the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its predecessor, the Canada‐United States Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), on agricultural trade flows at disaggregated product categories. The empirical analysis is implemented through gravity models using different econometric methods. It accounts for the baseline NAFTA/CUSFTA‐unrelated magnitudes of trade between member countries throughout the assessment of the NAFTA/CUSFTA trade effects. The benchmark estimates show considerable differences across agricultural product categories. The net post‐NAFTA/CUSFTA magnitudes of trade between member countries are found to be markedly low in some cases, underlining missed regional trade opportunities. The empirical analysis proceeds to estimate the NAFTA/CUSFTA trade effects by time period and by bilateral trading partnership, revealing important variations. Cet article examine les effets de l'Accord de Libre‐Échange Nord‐Américain (ALÉNA) et de son prédécesseur, l'Accord de Libre‐Échange entre le Canada et les États‐Unis (ALÉCÉU), sur les flux commerciaux agricoles au niveau des catégories ventilées. L'analyse empirique est mise en ?uvre grâce à des modèles de gravité en utilisant une variété de méthodes économétriques. Elle compte pour la ligne de base des magnitudes non‐reliées à l'ALÉNA/ALÉCÉU du commerce entre les pays membres à travers l′évaluation des effets de l'ALÉNA/ALÉCÉU sur le commerce. Les estimations de référence montrent des différences considérables entre les catégories de produits agricoles. Les magnitudes post‐ALÉNA/ALÉCÉU nettes du commerce entre les pays membres se trouvent d′être considérablement faibles dans certains cas. Ces résultats soulignent des opportunités commerciales régionales manquées. L'analyse empirique procède à estimer les effets de l'ALÉNA/ALÉCÉU sur le commerce par période et par partenariat commercial bilatéral, et elle montre des variations importantes.     

Bilateral Import Protection,Free Trade Agreements,and Other Factors Influencing Trade Flows in Agriculture and Clothing

Many factors shape the global network of bilateral trade including fundamental forces of supply and demand factors and government policies. This study uses the generalised gravity framework to distinguish among the different drivers that either deter or aid partner trade in land‐intensive agriculture and labour‐intensive clothing. The dataset used in the analysis includes bilateral trade among 70 countries in 1995, 2000 and 2005. Collectively, the 70 countries account for 85% of the world’s trade in agriculture and 96% of its GDP. Empirical results lend support to the Heckscher–Ohlin explanation of trade, namely that relative factor endowments motivate cross‐border trade. Results also show that tariffs are not always binding and bilateral free‐trade agreements more often divert rather than create trade.     

Trade Elasticity,Gravity and Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from the Food Industry

We present an econometric investigation of the trade effect produced by the elimination of tariffs in 18 food sectors for a large sample of developing and developed countries. The standard CES monopolistic competition trade model and the gravity equation were used to estimate trade substitution elasticities, exploring their sensitivity to different estimation methods. Using these elasticities, we simulate the trade effect of the elimination of tariffs, dealing with the problem of uncertainty in the estimated values. Results point to a significant variation in the elasticities estimated by different econometric methods, suggesting that the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator significantly inflates their magnitude. Simulation results indicate that trade liberalisation will strongly increase food exports especially from high income and emerging countries, leading to a general loss of market share by developing countries. The simulated trade flows obtained from the econometric approach are quite close to current evidence based on computable general equilibrium models.     

Trade and the Political Economy of Food Standards

This article presents a political economy model of public standards in an open economy. We use the model to derive the political optimum and to analyse different factors that have an influence on this political equilibrium. We analyse the relationship between trade and the political equilibria and compare the political outcome with the social optimum to identify under which cases political considerations lead to standards being set ‘too low’ or ‘too high’, and which standards could be labelled as protectionist measures.     

中国木质家具出口区域贸易潜力分析

中国木质家具出口对不同区域的贸易状况是不同的,既存在着贸易过度,又存在着贸易不足,运用引力模型,通过实证分析检验,提出对潜力再造型、潜力开拓型、潜力巨大型三类不同潜力的贸易伙伴应采取不同的措施,引导木质家具贸易流向的调整,以减少贸易摩擦,保障木质家具贸易的快速健康发展。     

双边贸易成本影响中国农产品出口边际了吗

本文利用UN Comtrade数据库1992-2017年HS-6位农产品贸易数据,测度中国与农产品主要贸易伙伴国双边贸易成本及中国农产品出口边际,并运用企业异质性理论模型检验双边贸易成本对中国农产品出口边际的影响。研究结果表明:(1)中国与主要贸易伙伴国双边贸易成本不断下降。(2)中国农产品出口增长主要依赖于集约边际。(3)双边贸易成本对中国农产品出口边际具有显著的负影响,表现为双边可变贸易成本对中国农产品出口扩展边际、集约边际均有抑制作用;双边固定贸易成本仅对中国农产品出口扩展边际具有负向影响;双边可变贸易成本对中国农产品出口扩展边际的阻碍作用大于其对中国农产品出口集约边际的阻碍作用。为此,本文就如何降低双边贸易成本、提高农产品扩展边际在农产品出口中的贡献提出了一些针对性的建议。     

中蒙俄经济走廊视域下中国木质家具贸易潜力测度

基于1997—2016年间中国木质家具出口蒙古和俄罗斯的贸易时间序列数据,运用引力模型分析影响中国木质家具出口蒙古和俄罗斯的主要因素,并进一步测算其出口潜力。结果表明:中国木质家具对蒙古和俄罗斯的出口均有不足。因此,应加快中蒙俄经济走廊建设,提高中国木质家具的竞争力水平,加大中国木质家具对蒙古和俄罗斯的出口。     

The Effects of Non‐tariff Measures on Agri‐food Trade: A Review and Meta‐analysis of Empirical Evidence

The increasing policy interest and academic debates on non‐tariff measures (NTMs) has stimulated a growing literature on how NTMs affect agri‐food trade. The empirical literature provides contrasting and heterogeneous evidence, with some studies supporting the ‘standards as catalysts’ view, and others favouring the ‘standards as barriers’ explanation. To the extent that NTMs can influence trade, understanding the prevailing effect, and the motivations behind one effect or the other, is a pressing issue. We review a large body of empirical evidence on the effect of NTMs on agri‐food trade and conduct a meta‐analysis to disentangle potential determinants of heterogeneity in estimates. Our findings show the role played by the publication process and by study‐specific assumptions. Some characteristics of the studies are correlated with positive significant estimates, others covary with negative significant estimates. Overall, we found that the effects of NTMs vary across types of NTM, proxies used for NTMs, and levels of detail of studies. The estimated effects are also influenced by methodological issues and publication processes.     

劳工标准之争的博弈分析及应对策略

随着发展中国家经济的迅速崛起,发达国家正极力寻找各种形式的非关税壁垒。其中，发展中国家的劳工标准问题受到发达国家的广泛重视。在概述劳工标准的基础上，阐述了发达国家和发展中国家对于劳工标准的两种态度,并从短期和长期的角度分别进行了博弈分析，提出了发展中国家在劳工标准问题方面的应对策略。