Hot Spot Policing: A Study of Place‐Based Strategies for Crime Prevention

Hot spot policing is a popular policing strategy that addresses crime by assigning limited police resources to areas where crimes are more highly concentrated. We analyze this strategy using a game theoretic approach. The main argument against focusing police resources on hot spots is that it would simply displace criminal activity from one area to another. We provide new insights on the nature of the displacement effect with useful implications for the empirical analysis of crime‐reduction effects of police reallocation. We also propose alternative place‐based policies that display attractive properties in terms of geographic spillovers of crime reduction via optimal police reallocation.     

Rail Transit and Neighborhood Crime: The Case of Atlanta,Georgia

The construction of commuter rail stations is the centerpiece of many metropolitan areas' overall strategies for dealing with worsening air pollution, automobile congestion, and urban sprawl. Neighborhood groups have frequently opposed new stations on the grounds that stations increase crime. If fears of station-induced neighborhood crime are justified, building new stations may make the problems they are supposed to address even worse, because crime is a cause of employment and population decentralization. This paper first demonstrates theoretically that transit's impact on neighborhood crime can be either positive or negative. Some rare evidence is then provided on the link between transit and crime. Using a unique panel of neighborhood crime data for Atlanta, the results from estimating fixed effects and random effects models show that transit's impact on crime depends on certain characteristics of the neighborhood. The mix of these characteristics found within central city neighborhoods has resulted in transit increasing crime there, whereas in the suburbs crime has been reduced by transit.     

Violent Video Games and Violent Crime

Video games are an increasingly popular leisure activity. As many best‐selling games contain hyper‐realistic violence, many researchers and policymakers have hypothesized that violent games cause violent behaviors. Laboratory experiments have found evidence suggesting that violent video games increase aggression. Before drawing policy conclusions about the effect of violent games on actual behavior, these experimental studies should be subjected to tests of external validity. Our study uses a quasi‐experimental methodology to identify the short‐run and medium‐run effects of violent game sales on violent crime using time variation in retail unit sales data of the top 30 selling video games and violent criminal offenses from both the Uniform Crime Report and the National Incident‐Based Reporting System from 2005 to 2011. We find no evidence of an increase in crime associated with video games and perhaps a decrease.     

Deterrence and Incapacitation Effects in a Closed Area: A Case Study of Auto Theft in Taiwan

Deterrence and incapacitation effects of auto theft are estimated with a full consideration of substitution effects across crime types and across districts in a closed area in which none of the effects will leak out. It is found that the increase in the cleared rate of auto theft crime in a certain district and in other districts strongly deters the auto theft in that district, indicating that the across‐district deterrence effect dominates the across‐district substitution effect. The across‐crime deterrence effect significantly exceeds the across‐crime substitution effect for close crime (general theft), but is insignificant for distant crime (violence).     

The compulsory public pension and the demand for life insurance: the case of Sweden, 1884–1914

We employ cost‐of‐living surveys, business archives, and firm data to examine the impact of the compulsory pension on the demand for life insurance in Sweden from 1884 to 1914—a period that covers the implementation of the first public compulsory old‐age pension reform and the take‐off of industry life insurance. As predicted on the basis of the contemporary literature on crowding‐out effects, we find that the compulsory pension reduced the demand for life insurance. Our panel‐data analysis of lapse rates on insurance policies shows a significant crowding‐out effect of pension payments. We conclude that the introduction of the general compulsory pension had a crowding‐out effect on households’ holdings of insurance policies.     

State Firearm Sales and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Firearm Background Checks

The FBI has reported the number of monthly firearm background checks in every state since November 1998. This article uses data on background checks at the state level to explore the relationship between guns and crime. The background checks capture an individual's intention to purchase a firearm and explain 96% of the variation in gun manufacturing at a national level. Fixed effect negative binomial regressions show a positive, but insignificant, relationship between background checks and violent crimes. Property crimes are negatively related to background checks and statistically significant at the 10% level. The results suggest that gun control policies should be coupled with other initiatives if policy makers intend to reduce gun‐related crime.     

Night watchman,extractive, or developmental states? Some evidence from late colonial south‐east Asia1

The article examines aspects of government policy in different parts of colonial south‐east Asia, and in nominally independent Siam (Thailand) in the first four decades of the twentieth century. The emphasis is on taxation and expenditure policies, and their implications for the development of infrastructure and also for the welfare of indigenous populations. Attention is also given to the impact of government regulation of both factor and product markets. On the basis of the empirical evidence, the article argues that the traditional view of the colonial state as a ‘night watchman’ was not applicable to most parts of south‐east Asia after 1900. Governments were increasingly involved in implementing policies that today would be considered developmental, including building infrastructure and improving access to secular education and modern health care for the indigenous populations. But given the resources that they had, or had the potential to mobilize, more could have been achieved.     

Child Access Prevention Laws and Nonfatal Gun Injuries

Many states have passed child access prevention (CAP) laws, which hold the gun owner responsible if a child gains access to a gun that is not securely stored. Previous research on CAP laws has focused exclusively on gun‐related deaths even though most gun injuries are not fatal. We use annual hospital discharge data to investigate whether CAP laws are associated with decreased nonfatal gun injuries. Results from Poisson regressions that control for various hospital, county, and state characteristics, including state‐specific fixed effects and time trends, indicate that CAP laws are associated with reductions in nonfatal gun injuries among children under age 18. Our results are bolstered by the absence of effects on other outcomes such as self‐inflicted gun injuries among adults and nongun self‐inflicted injuries.     

The Effect of High School JROTC on Student Achievement,Educational Attainment,and Enlistment

The Junior Reserve Officers' Training Corps (JROTC) is a high school initiative that serves many at‐risk students. Its goals range from reducing dropout rates and improving academic achievement to preparing students for military careers. Using data from High School and Beyond (HSB) and the National Educational Longitudinal Study (NELS), we estimate average treatment effects on students attending schools that typically host JROTC. Applying a two‐stage matching technique, we find that JROTC participants have poorer academic outcomes than other students; although, a large portion of these differences is explained by their at‐risk status. In addition, program effects appear to differ by demographic group, with black participants having lower dropout rates than white participants. The program also appears to improve self‐esteem scores of females. Although the majority of JROTC participants do not join the military, we find large marginal enlistment effects.     

贸易开放度与中国经济增长关系的地区差异研究

为了探求中国的开放政策是否促进了经济增长，以及开放政策对不同区域的作用是否存在差异，本文在相关文献回顾的基础上，运用中国大陆地区28个省、自治区和直辖市（海南、重庆、西藏除外）1984-2004年的相关数据，采用Panel Data模型对贸易开放度与中国经济增长的关系问题进行了实证研究。研究的结论认为开放的对外经济贸易政策促进了中国的经济增长；井且通过研究发现这一促进作用存在着地区差异，对于中西部地区来说，促进作用更大。     

Public Policy Environment and Entrepreneurial Activities: Evidence from China

What determines the effectiveness of government entrepreneurship policies on the regional development of entrepreneurial activities in China? Using panel data analysis, this study develops a comprehensive framework that examines the effects of various factors, including government efficiency and government support for business, finance and technology, on facilitating the creation of new ventures. Based on provincial data collected between 2009 and 2014, we find that the level of infrastructure development, government incubators and venture capital‐guided funds have positive and significant effects on entrepreneurial activities. The findings of our study suggest that local government efficiency is a fundamental precondition for entrepreneurship policies to effectively boost the regional economy.     

Conditional Cash Transfer and School Outcomes: An Evaluation of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program in Davao Oriental,Philippines

The present study adds to the empirical literature examining the effects of conditional cash transfers on school outcomes. Using school‐level and student‐level enrolment data from Davao Oriental Philippines, we evaluate the influence of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (also known as 4Ps), a social development policy program, on the growth rates in school enrolment outcomes. The findings show that 4Ps, on average, increased school enrolment of children by 1.12 percent. It was also apparent that using student‐level data as opposed to school‐level data revealed a more robust effect of 4Ps on school outcomes. We also found some school and socioeconomic characteristics influencing the change in school enrolments. Finally, this study highlights the role of government intervention programs in improving access to education in the poorest sector of the economy.     

Rural-Urban Differences in the Unemployment-Crime Relationship: The Case of Pennsylvania

This study analyzes the unemployment-crime (U-C) relationship in urban and rural Pennsylvania counties using a balanced panel data set over the period from 1990 to 2009. A two-way fixed effects model is estimated to account for unobserved county-specific and time-specific heterogeneity. The criminal opportunity and criminal motivation effects of unemployment on crime advanced by Cantor and Land are tested. The results suggest that there are rural-urban differences in the impacts of the covariates. Specifically, both statistically significant criminal opportunity and criminal motivation effects are present in urban counties. In contrast, rural counties fail to conform to U-C predictions. Oaxaca decomposition reveals that the unexplained portion of the rural-urban difference in the crime rate is 12%. The results provide support for addressing labor market conditions to complement traditional crime-fighting measures in urban settings.     

Measuring Production and Irrigation Efficiencies of Rice Farms: Evidence from the Punjab Province,Pakistan

We employ a non‐parametric approach, data envelopment analysis, to estimate the technical and irrigation efficiency of rice farms in the Punjab Province of Pakistan. We use a cross‐sectional dataset of 80 rice growers, including 45 tube‐well owners and 35 water buyers. Mean technical efficiency scores show that tube‐well owners and water buyers are operating at fairly high efficiency levels, indicating that access to technology is not a major constraint. However, irrigation inefficiency is pronounced, with water buyers being more inefficient than tube‐well owners. A bootstrap truncated regression is used to investigate the determinants of technical and irrigation efficiency. We suggest that groundwater management policies should be designed to address efficiency enhancing factors such as knowledge of crop water consumption requirement, better credit opportunities, outreach extension services and training programs.     

INVESTIGATING THE GENDER GAP IN SOUTH AFRICAN TRADE UNION MEMBERSHIP: A DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS

This paper investigates the gender difference in trade union membership among African men and women in South Africa. Using labour force survey data for 2001 and 2007, we show that at least two thirds of the gender gap is explained by differences in union‐related characteristics. When compared with gender differences in personal, household‐ and job‐related characteristics, disparities in job characteristics account for a larger proportion of the gender gap. These findings imply that women would have had higher unionisation rates than men if they possessed male endowments of union‐related characteristics, especially access to unionised jobs.     

Investment climate and foreign direct investment in Malaysia: firm‐level evidence

Most of the foreign direct investment (FDI) studies on location determinants are based on macroeconomic characteristics. However, it is important to understand to what extent microeconomic obstacles hinder FDI. This study explores obstacles to FDI in Malaysia, based on firm‐level data. To overcome the problem of uncertainty in variable selection, Bayesian model averaging for logistic regression is employed. Using the Enterprise Surveys 2015 dataset for analysis, the Bayesian logistic regression approach provides robust findings on the importance of access to land, crime, and disorder as obstacles to FDI.     

CRIME PREVENTION PROGRAMS: EVIDENCE FROM CHILE

This paper analyzes the impact of two anti‐crime programs adopted in Chile in the late 1990s. The first (the so‐called Quadrant Plan) is aimed at enhancing the quality of police work and the second (the Secure County Plan), at encouraging the involvement of the community in designing specific projects aimed at reducing the crime rate. It is found that only the Quadrant Plan has been successful in terms of reducing crime rates and has caused an impact through the effect of arrests in deterring crime. The Secure County program does not appear to have had any incidence on crime rates. It is also found that crime is associated with unemployment and that there is persistence in crime rates.     

Crime, Job Searches, and Economic Growth

This paper constructs a theoretical model with which to analyze the puzzling links between unemployment and crime rates, described in the literature. Most theoretical papers on crime, such as Becker Journal of Political Economy 76, 169–217, (1968), Ehrlich Journal of Political Economy 81, 521–565, (1973), and İmrohoroğlu et al. International Economic Review 41, 1–25, (2000), emphasize the analysis of the equilibrium crime rate, dealing with the unemployment rate as an exogenous parameter, but little attention has been devoted to investigating the influence of the criminal market on the equilibrium unemployment rate in the labor market and how these markets interact. This paper illustrates how the causes of crime play a crucial role in the unemployment-crime relationship, wherein different causality result in different associative relationships between unemployment and crime. The aforementioned conclusion illustrates the theory explaining why the empirical findings related to the unemployment-crime relationship are mixed and equivocal. Second, this paper describes the diverse origins of crime, in which employed workers and unemployed workers have different incentives for entering a life of crime. Employed and unemployed workers assume different opportunity costs by engaging in criminal activities, resulting in different effects on the economy. This explains why crime rates relative to unemployment rates in different countries could be either procyclical or countercyclical.