海上风电有望规模化

龙源江苏如东海上风电项目的投产,意味着海上风电正在步入大规模开发阶段11月23日,中国最大的海上风电场江苏如东示范风电场全部投产发电,总装机容量为150兆瓦,这是世界第二大风电开发商龙源电力开发的第一座海上风电场,同时也是国家能源局核准的第二个海上风电示范项目。     

风电板块逆“风”飞扬

根据国家风电信息管理中心最新发布的数据,截至今年3月31日,全国风电累计核准容量为10846万千瓦。与此同时,巴菲特旗下的中美能源公司公布了19亿美元的风能投资计划,将在2015年年底之前安装数百新的风力发电涡轮。利好消息频吹之下,是否预示着风电行业已经转好？     

风电投资是否过热？——专访国家能源局可再生能源司副司长史立山

要保持风电产业健康发展,不但要尽快解决电网和价格的问题,从长远看还必须夯实产业基础,理顺地方和企业的利益纠葛计划似乎总是赶不上变化,近3年来中国风电的发展速度大大超乎预期。2007年中国新增风电装机328万千瓦,仅次于美国和西班牙,成为世界风电增长最快的市场之一。国家发改委今年3月发布的《可再生能源发展"十一五"规划》中,将2010年风电装机容量的目标由500万千瓦调高到1000万千瓦,这一目标很可能在2008年内提前完成。甚至有专家预计,到2010年中国风能装机将达到2000万千瓦,超过规划目标的一倍。     

风电行业如何应对新挑战

风电开发运营商对风电的布局已经悄然调整,结构重心也从北向南,从低电价区向高电价区转移,以此来规避外部影响本世纪初,中国还仅是拥有几个示范风电项目的国家,几年之间,中国风电市场历经爆炸式的发展过程,现已成为世界第一风电大国。到2012年底,全国风电装机容量超过了6000万千瓦。中国的风电正值生命力旺盛的成长期,在《风电发展"十二五"规划》《节能减排"十二五"规划》及一系列风电相关政策的指导下,借由强势的动力和迅猛的发展速度,风电行业会快步进入成熟期。     

探讨风电项目的融资特点与渠道

风能是一种可再生自然清洁能源,风电项目倍受到了世界各国的重视。风电项目在我国尚属于新型产业,其融资特点比较特别,融资渠道也有待进一步开发,当前,其融资渠总体来有内部融资与外部融资,进步完善其融资,促进风电能源在我国的发展具有重要意义。     

风电设备 现金直补 发展提速

国家财政部发布"现金直补"办法,这说明我国风电行业已真正引起了国家相关部委的足够重视,对于风电行业或将有后续支持政策陆续出台。此举将有助于理顺风电电价机制,逐步开启中国风电发展的崭新时代。     

欧洲可再生能源投融资模式及启示

俄乌冲突促使欧洲加快部署可再生能源建设,欧洲计划到2030年达到160GW的海上风电发展目标,这也为我国风电企业带来了广阔的市场前景。本文对欧洲以风能为代表的可再生能源投融资主要模式进行了梳理,及其对中国可再生能源投融资的启示进行了总结,提出了以可再生能源新项目前期融资需求为重点,强化政策性银行在可再生能源项目中的投资领航作用;在信贷市场和资本市场上倡导可再生能源项目的再融资,使项目融资成本逐步降低;在继续加大对风电设备制造龙头企业的信贷支持力度,鼓励企业加快上下游企业收购重组,打造风电制造全产业链,助力企业走出去,提升国际竞争力的同时,国家政策层面逐步完善对可再生能源项目的补贴制度,推动企业签订购电协议(PPAS)等建议,鼓励企业在海上风电发展初期抢占出口先机。     

风电项目的风险分析与管理

全球能源问题日益凸现,风能作为清洁可再生能源,逐渐成为人们在寻求替代能源过程中的宠儿,风力发电在全球范围内得到了飞速发展。风电投资热情高涨,但同时应该看到风险问题也是风电项目投资运营过程中一个不可回避的问题。     

2010年中国风电行业风险分析

一、2009年风电行业运行特点(一)中国风电装机容量快速增加我国风电发展起步较晚。在欧洲风电市场已经非常成熟并且逐渐饱和的情况下,我国的风电产业表现出了旺盛的生命力和巨大的发展潜力,与美国、印度等国家共同成为全球风能发展过程中新的增长     

浅议风电工程建设中的工程造价全过程控制

在风电工程建设中，由于风电项目的建设周期较长，其前期的投入比较大周此就要对工程造价进行合理的控制。在风电工程建设中，造价控制应该贯穿到建设工程的全过程从建设前期的投资决策阶段到最终的竣工阶段。     

Optimal Hedging of Prediction Errors Using Prediction Errors

Wind power energy has been paid much attention recently for various reasons, and the production of electricity with wind energy has been increasing rapidly for a few decades. One of the most difficult issues for using wind power in practice is that the power output largely depends on the wind condition, and as a result, the future output may be volatile or uncertain. Therefore, the prediction of power output in the future is considered important and is key to electric power generating industries making the wind power electricity market work properly. However, the use of predictions may cause other problems due to “prediction errors.” In this work, we will propose a new type of weather derivatives based on the prediction errors for wind speeds, and estimate their hedge effect on wind power energy businesses. At first, we will investigate the correlation of prediction errors between the power output and the wind speed in a Japanese wind farm, which is a collection of wind turbines that generate electricity in the same location. Then we will develop a methodology that will optimally construct a wind derivative based on the prediction errors using nonparametric regressions. A simultaneous optimization technique of the loss and payoff functions for wind derivatives is demonstrated based on the empirical data.     

吉林省风电产业外商投资现状、问题及对策

近年来,随着吉林省重点发展清洁可再生能源、实施打造国家重要新能源基地战略,吉林省风电产业外商投资呈快速发展的态势。本文通过调查吉林省风电产业外商投资的情况,分析了目前吉林省风电产业外商投资所面临的主要问题,并就此提出了相应的政策建议。     

我国风电企业排污权期权交易研究

由于经济发展导致了环境恶化,我国日益重视发展风电等新能源产业,并允许排污权交易以改善环境。在剖析排污权期权含义与定价模型的基础上,分析我国风电企业排污权交易市场建立的条件以及排污权期权交易的条件。最后,提出我国风电企业排污权期权交易的原则、组织机构与主体。     

扶持风力发电发展循环经济

政府总理温家宝在今年的政府工作报告中提出了要大力发展循环经济.风能是取之不尽,用之不竭的清洁能源,扶持风力发电符合发展循环经济的要求,从我国的国情来看,扶持风力发电对于转向循环经济更是有着特殊的意义.本文论述了国内风力发电发展的现状和所存在的障碍,并提出了相应的政策建议.     

赤峰发展新路子：规模化“逐风”

面对新一轮的发展机遇,作为一个以传统农牧业经济为主的地区,追风逐电．开发利用风电,打造风电产业集群．成为赤峰为其经济发展选择的新路子。     

The Economics of Wind Energy

In the summer of 2008 the authors of this article met with Boone Pickens to discuss the centerpiece of the Pickens plan for moving the U.S. toward energy independence: the feasibility of wind power as a source for the production of electricity. That meeting, along with their survey of published sources, leads the authors to the following conclusions:

• •

  Wind power is an abundant and clean source of energy for the U.S. both now and in the future.
• •

  Wind power is now economically viable in some parts of the country, and would be viable throughout the wind-rich mid-section of the U.S. if we had a national transmission grid.

But developing such a grid faces several hurdles, including the cost of construction and the need for state-by-state approvals of interstate transmission lines. To overcome these obstacles, the authors offer the following policy recommendations:

• Federal oversight of the construction of the national transmission grid. Moving toward renewable sources of energy and reduced greenhouse gas from the use of coal changes the problem of managing electric power generation from a local to regional and national problem. This requires broader cooperation and coordination to ensure the construction and management of reliable sources of electric power.

• Identify adequate sources of financing. The positive economics of wind power suggest that wind farm development and transmission grid installation should attract sufficient private funding to fully develop the 20% wind solution. But because of the sheer size of the plan, completing it may require innovative financing structures that include the possibility of some combination of public and private funding sources.

     

Carbon Price in China: A CO2 Abatement Cost of Wind Power Perspective

As a result of rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, energy (especially fossil fuels) demand growth is increasing. Hence, China is facing the huge pressure of environmental protection and CO₂ emission reduction. The feed-in tariff (FIT) policy that promotes more wind power to substitute for thermal power and a well-functioning carbon price mechanism can significantly affect CO₂ abatement, and both can work in coordination to achieve emission reduction. Using panel model, we prove that FIT policy is more effective than other policies in promoting more wind power. Also the slowdown of economic growth, energy substitution, technological progress, and CO₂ mitigation requirement can stimulate the expansion of wind power. Additionally, based on the calculation of real abatement cost of wind power, we obtain the provincial and national average of carbon prices (239 CNY/ton and 242 CNY/ton). Specifically, 233-251 CNY/ton will be the range for reasonable carbon price in the future. We find that the carbon prices in this article are higher than those of the emissions trading scheme pilots in 2014 and 2015, due to the relatively high proportion of free allowance. Based on the above conclusions, we proposed some policy suggestions.     

The Effects of Environmental Information Disclosure and Energy Types on the Cost of Equity: Evidence from the Energy Industry in China

This study investigates whether environment information disclosure (EID) and different energy sources have any effect on the cost of equity capital (COEC), and how the EID effect on the COEC varies with different types of energy. We find a negative relationship between EID and COEC. Thus, EID reduces the agency problem and information asymmetry between firms and investors, and also supports the legitimacy and stakeholder theories’ explanation of the effect of EID on the COEC in China. We find a positive (negative) relationship between some energy sources such as gas, fossil-fuelled thermal power generation, and oil (hydro-power generation, solar, and wind) and the COEC. The finding explains the polluting nature, risk of replacement, regulation risk, and regulatory costs of different energy types, and those risks have been accounted by investors. We also find that when gas, fossil-fuelled thermal power, and oil firms increase their level of EID, their COEC increases, whereas when power grid, solar, and wind power firms increase their level of EID, their COEC decreases. This finding is supported by the combination of polluting nature, risk of replacement, regulation risk, and regulatory costs of different energy sources and legitimacy and stakeholder theories. Our findings are robust to several endogeneity checks and additional tests for several unique features of Chinese capital markets.     

中国风电:转动绿色梦想

执著于风车旋转的神奇和美妙，坚信大自然给予的无限能量，孜孜寻找天、地、人的和谐共生，为一个清洁健康的未来……     

Multivariate continuous-time modeling of wind indexes and hedging of wind risk

With the introduction of the exchange-traded German wind power futures, opportunities for German wind power producers to hedge their volumetric risk are present. We propose two continuous-time multivariate models for wind power utilization at different wind sites, and discuss the properties and estimation procedures for the models. Applying the models to wind index data for wind sites in Germany and the underlying wind index of exchange-traded wind power futures contracts, the estimation results of both models suggest that they capture key statistical features of the data. We show how these models can be used to find optimal hedging strategies using exchange-traded wind power futures for the owner of a portfolio of so-called tailor-made wind power futures. Both in-sample and out-of-sample hedging scenarios are considered, and, in both cases, significant variance reductions are achieved. Additionally, the risk premium of the German wind power futures is analysed, leading to an indication of the risk premium of tailor-made wind power futures.