房地产金融调控政策效应评价:佛山实证

近年来,国家通过采取金融、财税、产业等政策措施组合对房地产市场进行调控,对于维护房地产市场平稳运行,促进经济健康发展起到了积极作用。但是,当前我国房地产供求矛盾突出、房价上涨过快等深层次问题并未得到有效解决。本文以佛山为案例的研究表明:宏观经济因素、前期的房价上涨情况、个人住房消费贷款、人民币汇率升值是导致房屋需求增加的最主要因素。为此,要提高房地产金融调控的有效性,应进一步完善房地产金融调控机制,实行需求调节与供给调节相结合的金融调控新方式;加强跨境资金流动管理,合理引导外资流向和流量。     

房产税对宏观经济的影响效应研究

本文扩展Dong et al.(2019)通过企业家对住房地产和实体经济投资进行资产组合决策,把房价、投资、消费和产出等重要经济指标纳入主流新凯恩斯框架,考虑银行能否区分贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业两种情形,分析了房产税引入住房市场前后对宏观经济的影响效应。研究结果表明:开征房产税对房地产开发投资、房价和新住房生产具有明显的抑制作用,对实体经济投资则具有正挤入效应增加和负抵押效应减少的双重效应。从短期看,当银行无法区分企业贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业时,因前期的负抵押效应大于正挤入效应,总实物资本减少,产出下降;当可清晰区分二者时,负抵押效应变为小于正挤入效应,总实物资本增加,产出上升。鉴于推出房产税对宏观经济影响较为复杂,应充分权衡利弊,采取必要辅助措施趋利避害。     

房产税对宏观经济的影响效应研究

本文扩展Dong et al.(2019)通过企业家对住房地产和实体经济投资进行资产组合决策,把房价、投资、消费和产出等重要经济指标纳入主流新凯恩斯框架,考虑银行能否区分贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业两种情形,分析了房产税引入住房市场前后对宏观经济的影响效应。研究结果表明:开征房产税对房地产开发投资、房价和新住房生产具有明显的抑制作用,对实体经济投资则具有正挤入效应增加和负抵押效应减少的双重效应。从短期看,当银行无法区分企业贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业时,因前期的负抵押效应大于正挤入效应,总实物资本减少,产出下降;当可清晰区分二者时,负抵押效应变为小于正挤入效应,总实物资本增加,产出上升。鉴于推出房产税对宏观经济影响较为复杂,应充分权衡利弊,采取必要辅助措施趋利避害。     

Determinants of US investment in real estate abroad

The purpose of this paper is to analyse and discuss those factors which are contributing to the expansion of US FDI in real estate. The empirical results of this model of FDI in real estate show that as US foreign financial liabilities increase, there is an accompanying increase in its FDI in real estate. This result is consistent with the study by Russekh, F., Ruffin, R., 1986. The role of foreign direct investment in US capital flows. Am. Econ. Rev. 76, 1127–1130, who showed that US FDI abroad is a substitute for US financial assets. Furthermore, the empirical results indicate that as returns from the US stock market decline, there are more incentives for US investors to invest in foreign real estate. The empirical results also show that US financial wealth, US FDI in manufacturing and banking and US bilateral trade contribute positively to the expansion of US FDI in real estate.     

Why Do Banks Go Abroad?—Evidence from German Data

This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of foreign activities of German banks. We use regionally disaggregated panel data for the years 1981–98 and distinguish foreign direct investment from total foreign assets of domestic banks, of their foreign branches and of their subsidiaries. Foreign activities are found to be positively related to demand conditions on the local market, foreign activities of German firms, and the presence of financial centers. This supports the hypothesis that German banks follow their customers abroad. Exchange rate volatility has some negative impact. EU membership and the abolition of capital controls seem to have exerted a greater influence on foreign assets than on FDI of German banks, thus weakly supporting the hypothesis that the two are substitutes.     

基于房地产市场的我国系统性金融风险测度与预警研究

本文阐释了基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险形成机制,据此建立了分阶段、跨部门的房地产市场的系统性金融风险网络模型,并运用2006-2017年16家上市银行数据,分析和测度了我国房价大幅下跌所引发的系统性金融风险水平和结构,构建了基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险预警指标并进行测算。研究发现:在房价下跌30%的压力情景下,我国金融体系的潜在总损失总体呈级数式上升,年均增长22.70%;基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险值(SR)呈现先上升后波动下降的总体趋势;系统性金融风险(SR)的脆弱性指标(FLI)整体呈现波浪式振荡变化,且与房地产贷款/权益整体呈反向变动,系统性金融风险(SR)的传染性指标(CTI)在2012-2017年呈持续下降趋势,且与金融市场压力指数、金融机构间资产占总资产比重呈现出高度的一致性变化趋势。最后,基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险预警指标(SRWI)值呈收敛式振荡走势,表明基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险总体可控且呈收敛式下降。     

2014年二季度吉林省经济金融形势分析及预测

从二季度区域经济运行情况来看：我省工业生产总体增速放缓,全省多数市/州工业出现下滑,民营经济显著回落,工业用电和铁路货运持续低位运行;三大需求全面回落,消费需求回落至中低速增长区间,固定资产投资增速下降明显,净出口增速持续收窄,外贸形势较为严峻;劳动力市场低位运行,就业和用工整体形势不容乐观,但企业一线用工情况有所改善;财政收支压力持续加大,收入减速和支出加速并存;房地产市场下行压力加大,商品房销量下滑显著,库存压力不断加大,商品房价格环比持续下降;消费者价格指数小幅回升,工业生产者价格低位企稳。从金融运行情况来看：各项贷款增速略有回落,受临储粮贷款投放减少影响,短期贷款增势放缓,中长期贷款增幅回升,单位中长期贷款呈增长势头,单位固定资产贷款强势增长;二产贷款增速、增量占比均有所提升,但信贷集中投向三产的格局并未改变;分企业规模类型看,小型企业贷款同比显著增长;单位存款增速持续放缓,存款定期化趋势增强预示宏观经济偏冷;居民投资结构有所调整,理财产品发放导致储蓄存款分流明显。     

基于房地产市场的我国系统性金融风险测度与预警研究

本文阐释了基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险形成机制,据此建立了分阶段、跨部门的房地产市场的系统性金融风险网络模型,并运用2006-2017年16家上市银行数据,分析和测度了我国房价大幅下跌所引发的系统性金融风险水平和结构,构建了基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险预警指标并进行测算。研究发现:在房价下跌30%的压力情景下,我国金融体系的潜在总损失总体呈级数式上升,年均增长22.70%;基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险值(SR)呈现先上升后波动下降的总体趋势;系统性金融风险(SR)的脆弱性指标(FLI)整体呈现波浪式振荡变化,且与房地产贷款/权益整体呈反向变动,系统性金融风险(SR)的传染性指标(CTI)在2012-2017年呈持续下降趋势,且与金融市场压力指数、金融机构间资产占总资产比重呈现出高度的一致性变化趋势。最后,基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险预警指标(SRWI)值呈收敛式振荡走势,表明基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险总体可控且呈收敛式下降。     

Risk and return in residential spatial markets: An empiric and theoretic model

The paper is concerned with price and rent fluctuations in predominantly owner-occupied residental real estate. It presents the owner-occupier household as a housing consumer as well as an investor. It conjectures that since risk and return are known to be positively related in financial markets, they might also be thus related in residential real estate markets. If that is so, neighborhoods that are known to yield high returns will be the ones less price and rent stable than low yielding ones.The Capital Asset Pricing Model is not helpful in explaining a possible risk/return relationship in housing markets. Its major assumption about portfolio diversification is contrary to the nature of owner-occupied residential real estate. An owner occupier household, by definition, holds one unit of the asset and acts simultaneously as an investor and consumer of housing. For the capital market investor, investment and consumption decisions are separable. Therefore, a new theoretical model of consumer choice is proposed. Tel-Aviv price and rent data during a volatile market period are used for testing the main risk/return conjecture as well as other related hypotheses stemming from the model. The findings lend support to the conjecture and shed light on possible spatial determinants of owners' risk.     

A Cross-Section Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Housing Demand in Spain: Is There a Real Estate Bubble?

Much attention has been given to claims that real estate prices in Spain are overvalued in relation to income and how plummeting house prices can jeopardize the economy (The Economist, 2003 and IMF, 2004). The measure of income elasticity on housing expenditure is often of considerable interest to applied researchers and policy makers in real estate economics, but the problem of omitted variables in some estimation techniques can lead to severe biases. In this paper we estimate the income elasticity of the demand for housing in Spain based on the cross-section of prices and income in fifty Spanish provinces from 1996 to 2002. In comparison to long-run equilibrium models fitted with time-series data, our results show a much weaker role of income growth as a vehicle for house price increases in the long run. According to our estimates, the rate of growth of house prices in Spain between 1998 and 2003 points to a real estate bubble with prices above the long-term equilibrium level.     

中国房地产市场价格波动中的金融心理属性猜想——一个理论模型和现实解释

中国房地产市场处于直接融资条件下的市场需求驱动形态,既受制于资金链上游银行业的投资决策,也束缚于资金链下游市场需求方的购买决策,表现出强烈的金融心理属性。在金融与心理因素交互作用下,中国房地产行业自发性地形成了吸引资金、适度繁荣、非理性繁荣的路径,并相伴产生不断增强的流动性风险。非理性市场会放大流动性风险,引发流动性危机;而培育价值投资型买方,发展理性房地产交易市场,则可有效抑制房地产泡沫,稳定市场情绪,引导房地产行业进入良性竞争。     

Determinants of Foreign Versus Domestic Real Estate Investment: Property Level Evidence from Listed Real Estate Investment Firms

We examine the determinants of foreign real estate investment relative to the domestic case using the portfolios of a large sample of publicly traded real estate investment companies; where foreign investment is defined as the property owner headquarters being located in a different country than a given asset. The cross-sectional results provide strong evidence that real estate firms are more likely to take a smaller stake in larger assets when investing abroad. The penchant for large assets holds when controlling for economic activity, real estate investment opportunities, depth and sophistication of the capital markets, investor protection and the legal framework, administrative burdens and regulatory limitations, and the socio-cultural and political environment at both the property nation and headquarter nation levels. In general, foreign ownership is less likely with industrial, office, retail, and self-storage properties. Capital market development is consistently negatively related to foreign investment.     

租购并举、货币政策与房地产市场波动

为补足房地产市场发展短板,有效解决房地产市场结构性失衡,我国提出加快建立租购并举的住房制度,健全住房租赁市场,满足居民居住需求。本文通过构建一般均衡模型,分析住房租赁市场发展对宏观经济的影响,并采用1998~2010年全国30个大中城市季度数据分析在房地产市场化改革前期房地产市场结构失衡对宏观经济的影响,采用2002~2019年全国月度数据分析实施租购并举住房制度后房地产市场结构改善情况下,宏观经济变化以及货币政策对房地产市场的调节效应。研究结果表明:第一,房地产市场化改革前期,住房以"居住"属性为主,"投资"属性相对较弱;第二,租购并举制度下房租房价之间"剪刀差"的缩小能够有效改善房地产市场失衡的状况;第三,货币政策对房地产市场具有显著影响,但不同的货币政策会产生截然相反的作用。     

Openness, profit opportunities and foreign banking

Using new data from the World Bank and OCC surveys, we show correlations across a wide range of countries between foreign banking and domestic economic, financial and bank regulatory conditions. Foreign banking tended to be more prevalent in countries that were more open to foreign ownership of their banks, more open to banks’ engaging in a wider range of financial activities and more open to international trade. Restrictions on foreign ownership of domestic banks that were in place in the late 1970s reduced the current extent of foreign banking. Foreign banking was negatively correlated with current restrictions on banks’ securities, insurance and real estate activities. Countries that had more international trade tended to have more foreign banking. Foreign banking was more pervasive in countries where banking was more profitable and where the domestically-owned banking sector was smaller relative to GDP.     

Transparency and Tax Evasion: Evidence from the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA)

We examine how U.S. individuals respond to regulation intended to reduce offshore tax evasion. The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) requires foreign financial institutions to report information to the U.S. government regarding U.S. account holders. We first document an average $7.8 billion to $15.3 billion decrease in equity foreign portfolio investment to the United States from tax-haven countries after FATCA implementation, consistent with a decrease in “round-tripping” investments attributable to U.S. investors’ offshore tax evasion. When testing total worldwide investment out of financial accounts in tax havens post-FATCA, we find an average decline of $56.6 billion to $78.0 billion. We next provide evidence of other important consequences of this regulation, including increased expatriations of U.S. citizens and greater investment in alternative assets not subject to FATCA reporting, such as residential real estate and artwork. Our study contributes to both the academic literature and policy analysis on regulation, tax evasion, and crime.     

我国房地产开发企业信托融资研究

房地产业是典型的资金密集型行业,相对于投资项目所需资金而言,房地产企业普遍存在自有资金不足的问题,因此必然要依赖于金融体系的资金支持。然而,现阶段我国房地产开发企业融资模式相对单一,主要依赖银行贷款。本文从房地产开发企业的角度出发,以美国为例分析REITs的发展状况及特点,并在此基础上研究和探讨我国房地产企业信托融资问题。     

Home mortgage debt financing of nonhousing investments

Home mortgage debt is decomposed into a component that represents debt demand, derived from housing demand and a residual excess demand. This excess demand derives principally from the demand for nonhousing assets. An empirical model of the determinants of the demand for excess debt is specified and estimated using databases from the 1983 and 1986 Surveys of Consumer Finance. The estimations focus on evidence of linkages between debt demand and household preferences for illiquid risky assets, and on the substitutability of personal debt for mortgage debt. Positive linkages are found between household choices of investments in vacation homes, investment real estate, and closely held business and the demand for excess debt. However, personal debt and mortgage debt appear to have largely separate financing roles.     

On the Hybrid Nature of REITs

The consensus that emerges from the current research on the linkage between securitized and direct investment in real estate is that direct (private) real estate returns play a relatively minor role in the real estate investment trust (REIT) return generating process. However, this result may at least partially be due to the coarseness of the measures of direct real estate returns or the relatively short return horizons used in previous studies. This study takes a different and unique perspective. Unlike earlier studies we do not use aggregated, average appraisal based returns on direct real estate investment. Instead, we use the MIT TBI indexes, which are transaction based price indexes, available both on the aggregate and sub-index levels. We find that the relation between REIT and direct real estate returns appears to be stronger at longer horizons. More specifically, using a cointegration framework, we find robust evidence that REITs and the underlying real estate are related and that they share a long run equilibrium. Interestingly, we find that both REITs and direct real estate returns adjust towards this long run relationship. When we examine property type level data we find similar results.     

房地产金融风险影响宏观经济安全的相关研究——兼论我国房地产金融潜在风险及政策建议

房地产金融风险的发生会引发全社会投资与消费的大幅减少,进而影响宏观经济,对经济增长和金融稳定产生负面影响。当前我国房地产金融风险主要为:土地储备贷款存在的隐性风险、房地产开发贷款风险、个人住房消费贷款违约风险以及房地产金融的宏观信用风险。为防范房地产金融风险,维护我国宏观经济安全,本文认为中国要借鉴房地产市场成熟国家经验,建立完善的房地产金融风险预警系统;建立健全房地产金融市场和监管体系,引导金融机构不断提升房地产信贷风险管理能力;完善房地产宏观政策体系,保持房地产市场供需结构平衡,引导房地产市场持续健康稳定发展。     

Does Residential Housing Crowd Out or Promote Households’ Stock Investment? Evidence from China

Limited participation in risky financial markets has long been a puzzle. Empirical evidence shows a strong relationship between housing and investment of risky financial assets, but with varying and conflicting results. We contribute to the literature by distinguishing housing for consumption and for investment, and by considering the role of housing price expectation when exploring households’ participation in stock markets. We find that home equity ratio and housing area play significant roles in households’ participation in stock markets. Households with higher home equity ratio or larger housing are less likely to own, and hold fewer stock assets if they do. We also find that the number of houses has a positive effect on stock investment for households with the same home equity ratio and housing size, which could be explained by credit rationing. Furthermore, housing price expectation has a negative effect on stock investment; this effect is larger for homeowners with multiple houses who are more likely to take houses for investment. Our results show insights into conflicting results of the relationship between real estate and stock investment.