A smoothed least squares estimator for threshold regression models

We propose a smoothed least squares estimator of the parameters of a threshold regression model. Our model generalizes that considered in Hansen [2000. Sample splitting and threshold estimation. Econometrica 68, 575–603] to allow the thresholding to depend on a linear index of observed regressors, thus allowing discrete variables to enter. We also do not assume that the threshold effect is vanishingly small. Our estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal thus facilitating standard inference techniques based on estimated standard errors or standard bootstrap for the slope and threshold parameters.     

Empirical likelihood for heteroscedastic partially linear single-index models with growing dimensional data

In this paper, we propose a new approach to the empirical likelihood inference for the parameters in heteroscedastic partially linear single-index models. In the growing dimensional setting, it is proved that estimators based on semiparametric efficient score have the asymptotic consistency, and the limit distribution of the empirical log-likelihood ratio statistic for parameters \((\beta ^{\top },\theta ^{\top })^{\top }\) is a normal distribution. Furthermore, we show that the empirical log-likelihood ratio based on the subvector of \(\beta \) is an asymptotic chi-square random variable, which can be used to construct the confidence interval or region for the subvector of \(\beta \). The proposed method can naturally be applied to deal with pure single-index models and partially linear models with high-dimensional data. The performance of the proposed method is illustrated via a real data application and numerical simulations.     

Spline-based quasi-likelihood estimation of mixed Poisson regression with single-index models

We consider spline-based quasi-likelihood estimation for mixed Poisson regression with single-index models. The unknown smooth function is approximated by B-splines, and a modified Fisher scoring algorithm is employed to compute the estimates. The spline estimate of the nonparametric component is shown to achieve the optimal rate of convergence, and the asymptotic normality of the regression parameter estimates is still valid even if the variance function is misspecified. The semiparametric efficiency of the model can be established if the variance function is correctly specified. The variance of the regression parameter estimates can be consistently estimated by a simple procedure based on the least-squares estimation. The proposed method is evaluated via an extensive Monte Carlo study, and the methodology is illustrated on an air pollution study.     

M-estimators for single-index model using B-spline

The single-index model is an important tool in multivariate nonparametric regression. This paper deals with M-estimators for the single-index model. Unlike the existing M-estimator for the single-index model, the unknown link function is approximated by B-spline and M-estimators for the parameter and the nonparametric component are obtained in one step. The proposed M-estimator of unknown function is shown to attain the convergence rate as that of the optimal global rate of convergence of estimators for nonparametric regression according to Stone (Ann Stat 8:1348–1360, 1980; Ann Stat 10:1040–1053, 1982), and the M-estimator of parameter is $\sqrt{n}$ -consistent and asymptotically normal. A small sample simulation study showed that the M-estimators proposed in this paper are robust. An application to real data illustrates the estimator’s usefulness.     

A smoothed maximum score estimator for the binary choice panel data model with an application to labour force participation

In a binary choice panel data model with individual effects and two time periods, Manski proposed the maximum score estimator based on a discontinuous objective function and proved its consistency under weak distributional assumptions. The rate of convergence is low ( N ^1/3) and its limit distribution cannot easily be used for statistical inference. In this paper we apply the idea of Horowitz to smooth Manski's objective function. The resulting smoothed maximum score estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal with a rate of convergence that can be made arbitrarily close to N ^1/2, depending on the strength of the smoothness assumptions imposed. The estimator can be applied to panels with more than two time periods and to unbalanced panels. We apply the estimator to analyze labour force participation of married Dutch females.     

Empirical likelihood for varying-coefficient single-index model with right-censored data

In this paper, empirical likelihood inferences for varying-coefficient single-index model with right-censored data are investigated. By a synthetic data approach, we propose an empirical log-likelihood ratio function for the index parameters, which are of primary interest, and show that its limiting distribution is a mixture of central chi-squared distributions. In order that the Wilks’ phenomenon holds, we propose an adjusted empirical log-likelihood ratio for the index parameters. The adjusted empirical log-likelihood is shown to have a standard chi-squared limiting distribution. Simulation studies are undertaken to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed confidence intervals. A real example is presented for illustration.     

Nonparametric transfer function models

In this paper a class of nonparametric transfer function models is proposed to model nonlinear relationships between ‘input’ and ‘output’ time series. The transfer function is smooth with unknown functional forms, and the noise is assumed to be a stationary autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) process. The nonparametric transfer function is estimated jointly with the ARMA parameters. By modeling the correlation in the noise, the transfer function can be estimated more efficiently. The parsimonious ARMA structure improves the estimation efficiency in finite samples. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are investigated. The finite-sample properties are illustrated through simulations and one empirical example.     

Efficient semiparametric estimation for endogenously stratified regression via smoothed likelihood

This paper presents efficient semiparametric estimators for endogenously stratified regression with two strata, in the case where the error distribution is unknown and the regressors are independent of the error term. The method is based on the use of a kernel-smoothed likelihood function which provides an explicit solution for the maximization problem for the unknown density function without losing information in the asymptotic limit. We consider both standard stratified sampling and variable probability sampling, and allow for the population shares of the strata to be either unknown or known a priori.     

On the appropriate objective function for post-disaster humanitarian logistics models

The paper argues that welfare economic principles must be incorporated in post-disaster humanitarian logistic models to ensure delivery strategies that lead to the greatest good for the greatest number of people. The paper's analyses suggest the use of social costs—the summation of logistic and deprivation costs—as the preferred objective function for post-disaster humanitarian logistic models. The paper defines deprivation cost as the economic valuation of the human suffering associated with a lack of access to a good or service. The use of deprivation costs is evaluated with a review of the philosophy and the economic literature to identify proper foundations for their estimation; a comparison of different proxy approaches to consider human suffering (e.g., minimization of penalties or weight factors, penalties for late deliveries, equity constraints, unmet demands) and their implications; and an analysis of the impacts of errors in estimation. In its final sections, the paper conducts numerical experiments to illustrate the comparative impacts of using the proxy approaches suggested in the literature, and concludes with a discussion of key findings.     

A score test under logistic regression models based on case–control data

We propose a score statistic to test the vector of odds ratio parameters under the logistic regression model based on case–control data. The proposed score test is based on the semiparametric profile loglikelihood function under a two-sample semiparametric model, which is equivalent to the assumed logistic regression model. The proposed score statistic has an asymptotic chi-squared distribution under the null hypothesis and an asymptotic noncentral chi-squared distribution under local alternatives to the null hypothesis. Moreover, we show that the proposed score test is asymptotically equivalent to the Wald test under the logistic regression model based on case–control data. In addition, we demonstrate that the proposed score statistic and its asymptotic distribution may be obtained by fitting the prospective logistic regression model to case–control data. We present some results on simulation and on the analysis of two real datasets.     

Information criteria for impulse response function matching estimation of DSGE models

We propose new information criteria for impulse response function matching estimators (IRFMEs). These estimators yield sampling distributions of the structural parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models by minimizing the distance between sample and theoretical impulse responses. First, we propose an information criterion to select only the responses that produce consistent estimates of the true but unknown structural parameters: the Valid Impulse Response Selection Criterion (VIRSC). The criterion is especially useful for mis-specified models. Second, we propose a criterion to select the impulse responses that are most informative about DSGE model parameters: the Relevant Impulse Response Selection Criterion (RIRSC). These criteria can be used in combination to select the subset of valid impulse response functions with minimal dimension that yields asymptotically efficient estimators. The criteria are general enough to apply to impulse responses estimated by VARs, local projections, and simulation methods. We show that the use of our criteria significantly affects estimates and inference about key parameters of two well-known new Keynesian DSGE models. Monte Carlo evidence indicates that the criteria yield gains in terms of finite sample bias as well as offering tests statistics whose behavior is better approximated by the first order asymptotic theory. Thus, our criteria improve existing methods used to implement IRFMEs.     

Goodness-of-fit tests for discrete models based on the integrated distribution function

This paper presents a new widely applicable omnibus test for discrete distributions which is based on the difference between the integrated distribution function Ψ(t)=∫_t ^∞ (1−F(x))dx and its empirical counterpart. A bootstrap version of the test for common lattice models has accurate error rates even for small samples and exhibits high power with respect to competitive procedures over a large range of alternatives. Received: July 1998     

Efficient estimation and computation for the generalised additive models with unknown link function

The generalised additive models (GAM) are widely used in data analysis. In the application of the GAM, the link function involved is usually assumed to be a commonly used one without justification. Motivated by a real data example with binary response where the commonly used link function does not work, we propose a generalised additive models with unknown link function (GAMUL) for various types of data, including binary, continuous and ordinal. The proposed estimators are proved to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Semiparametric efficiency of the estimators is demonstrated in terms of their linear functionals. In addition, an iterative algorithm, where all estimators can be expressed explicitly as a linear function of $Y$, is proposed to overcome the computational hurdle for the GAM type model. Extensive simulation studies conducted in this paper show the proposed estimation procedure works very well. The proposed GAMUL are finally used to analyze a real dataset about loan repayment in China, which leads to some interesting findings.     

Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models

Previous studies of the so-called frontier production function have not utilized an adequate characterization of the disturbance term for such a model. In this paper we provide an appropriate specification, by defining the disturbance term as the sum of symmetric normal and (negative) half-normal random variables. Various aspects of maximum-likelihood estimation for the coefficients of a production function with an additive disturbance term of this sort are then considered.     

Advanced models of quality function deployment: a literature review

In this paper, a literature review conducted to study the characteristics of advanced models of quality function deployment (QFD) that have appeared in the literature arena is reported. QFD technique emerged in Japan in the 1970s. QFD has been proving to be a powerful tool that can be used for translating the voice of customers into technical languages. Yet from the beginning of this century, researchers began to point out the need to refine, modify and improve the features of QFD technique. In order to fulfil this need, few researchers brought out several advanced models of QFD. While conducting the literature review reported in this paper, six types of such advanced models of QFD were identified in the literature arena and their characteristics were studied. The result of this study revealed that the procedural and computational complexities are least in the case of an advanced model called total quality function deployment (TQFD). TQFD technique replaces the complex computations involved in applying conventional QFD technique with simple ratings. Besides the formation of teams to translate the voice of customers into work instructions ensures the quick reactions to the customers’ desires in the actual field of implementation. In this background, at end of this paper, it is suggested to adopt TQFD for implementation in traditional organizations in which the prevalence of adequate education for adopting complex procedures is found to be least.     

Endogeneity in quantile regression models: A control function approach

This paper considers a linear triangular simultaneous equations model with conditional quantile restrictions. The paper adjusts for endogeneity by adopting a control function approach and presents a simple two-step estimator that exploits the partially linear structure of the model. The first step consists of estimation of the residuals of the reduced-form equation for the endogenous explanatory variable. The second step is series estimation of the primary equation with the reduced-form residual included nonparametrically as an additional explanatory variable. This paper imposes no functional form restrictions on the stochastic relationship between the reduced-form residual and the disturbance term in the primary equation conditional on observable explanatory variables. The paper presents regularity conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the two-step estimator. In addition, the paper provides some discussions on related estimation methods in the literature.     

Fuzzy item response model: a new approach to generate membership function to score psychological measurement

The aim of this study is to propose an new approach, fuzzy item response model (FIRM), which combines item response theory (IRT) and fuzzy set theory, in the educational or psychological measurement. Applying FIRM to improve the predictive validity of psychological measurement is verified. We set up a detailed procedure for the FIRM and apply it to a valuable empirical study with Beck Depression Inventory-II (Chinese version) administrated on outpatient diagnosed as depression was given. The results showed the correct classification of depression based on FIRM scoring was 80.3% while that of raw score was only 73.2%. That is, via FIRM scoring, 7.9% of the erroneous judgments of depression inferred from self-reported inventory were reduced. It is also suggested that considerable cost concerning prevention and cure of depression might be reduced via FIRM.     

A simple closed-form approximation for the cumulative distribution function of the composite error of stochastic frontier models

This paper derives an analytic closed-form formula for the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the composite error of the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) model. Since the presence of a cdf is frequently encountered in the likelihood-based analysis with limited-dependent and qualitative variables as elegantly shown in the classic book of Maddala (Limited-dependent and qualitative variables in econometrics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983), the proposed methodology is useful in the framework of the stochastic frontier analysis. We apply the formula to the maximum likelihood estimation of the SFA models with a censored dependent variable. The simulations show that the finite sample performance of the maximum likelihood estimator of the censored SFA model is very promising. A simple empirical example on the modeling of reservation wage in Taiwan is illustrated as a potential application of the censored SFA.     

A control function approach for testing the usefulness of trending variables in forecast models and linear regression

Many predictors employed in forecasting macroeconomic and finance variables display a great deal of persistence. Tests for determining the usefulness of these predictors are typically oversized, overstating their importance. Similarly, hypothesis tests on cointegrating vectors will typically be oversized if there is not an exact unit root. This paper uses a control variable approach where adding stationary covariates with certain properties to the model can result in asymptotic normal inference for prediction regressions and cointegration vector estimates in the presence of possibly non-unit root trending covariates. The properties required for this result are derived and discussed.     

Bootstrap validity for the score test when instruments may be weak

It is well-known that size adjustments based on bootstrapping the t$t$-statistic perform poorly when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous explanatory variable. In this paper, we provide a theoretical proof that guarantees the validity of the bootstrap for the score statistic. This theory does not follow from standard results, since the score statistic is not a smooth function of sample means and some parameters are not consistently estimable when the instruments are uncorrelated with the explanatory variable.